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Just how fast did Josh
McDougal and Lindsey Scherf run on Nov. 16th race at Van Cortlandt
Park?? ... I'm getting e-mails
asking that question. That's a difficult question to answer with any
certainty, and the best I can do is make a guess. My approach to
evaluating speed is to compare runners with each other ... since the
race was not a high school race, a group evaluation (using a graphical
solution) is not possible ... the only way to guess the relative speed
is to compare individual runners with each other ... unfortunately,
this NYRR race has only a few runners I know anything about to make a
comparison (and I really need more than a few).
Starting with the girls ... the only female runner in
the race I can compare Lindsey Scherf to is Brittney
Criscuolo (East Meadow) ... Brittney is one of the best high
school runners in NY State ... she skipped the Federation
Championships at Bowdoin Park to run in the NYRR race. Scherf ran
17:50, beating Criscuolo's 18:14 by 24 seconds ... that's very
impressive! I really don't know how well Criscuolo ran, but assuming
(and I emphasis assuming) the Criscuolo ran a speed rating in
the mid 140s (which might be reasonable based on her performances to
date), then Scherf's rating would be 8 points higher (24 seconds)
putting her in the low 150s ... that would make Scherf the 2nd fastest
girl in NY, and put her within reach of Nicole Blood. Some observers
think Scherf is better than Blood (maybe, but I need to see it first).
Looking at the boys ... Josh McDougal's time
(15:08) is sensational ... Josh has proven in the past he can run fast
times and this performance is remarkable. The only two boys in this
race I can use for comparison are his brother (Jordan) and David
Raucci (Red Hook). David is one of the top runners in Section 9
... David raced Josh in both the VCP race and previous week's race at
Saratoga Park ... At Saratoga Park on Nov 9th, Josh ran 15:04 and
David ran 16:27 ... at VCP, Josh ran 15:08 and David ran 16:17, so
David improved 14 seconds on the time difference between himself and
Josh. David Raucci ran at States at Marcus Whitman ... he finished
21st in the Class B race (17:39.7) about 1:10 behind winner Kyle Heath
(16:30) ... but in all fairness, that was an "off" race for Raucci who
would normally run about 30 seconds faster (based on his seasonal
performances) ... the day following States, Raucci ran against Josh at
Saratoga, so I assume that was not a normal-fast race for Raucci
either ... The time difference improvement between Saratoga and VCP
suggests Raucci was returning to his normal race speeds ... Now
assuming Raucci ran a speed rating of 181 at VCP, Josh's rating would
be 204 (because 1:09 or 69 seconds faster equals 23 points) ...
Jordan McDougal's speed rating (for 15:48) would be about 191.
Now a different perspective - the race courses themselves ... I
determined that the course speed at Bowdoin Park at Federations in
2003 and 2001 was almost exactly the same (forget about 2002 Feds
because the weather and conditions were awful) ... Compared to Bowdoin
Park Feds (2003, 2001) the race course speed at VCP Footlockers in
2002 was about 12 seconds faster than Bowdoin (average race times were
12 seconds faster at VCP) ... This year at VCP, the race times on the
2.5 miles course have been averaging about 10 to 12 seconds faster
than last year (I don't know why, but they have been) ... so MAYBE the
VCP 3.1 course is 15 seconds faster this year than last (this is an
assumption) ... So the course difference between Bowdoin Park (Feds)
and VCP (3.1 mile) may be 12 seconds + 15 seconds = 27 seconds faster
at VCP (3.1 mile) this year ... If we subtract 27 seconds from Lopez
Lomong's winning time at Feds (15:45), that would be 15:18 (or 10
seconds slower than Josh McDougal) ... Lomong's speed rating at
Bowdoin was 201 (I'm confident in that number) ... Josh's rating would
be about 3 points higher or 204, which agrees with the comparison to
David Raucci.
Extending the race course analogy to the girls ... the girl's
time scaling is slightly different than the boys in my approach ...
the course difference is about 21 seconds (rather than 27 seconds) ...
add 21 seconds to Scherf's time (17:50) to yield 18:11 ... in the
girl's Federation race, 18:11 corresponds to a speed rating of 154.3
... Criscuolo's rating would be 146.3.
So that's my best guess on how fast Josh McDougal and Lindsey Scherf
ran on Nov. 16th race at Van Cortlandt Park. |
Sept 9, 2003 ... Suburban Council Girls Dual at Iroquois Middle School
Saratoga - 19 Niskayuna - 44
Saratoga - 17 Shenendehowa - 46
Niskayuna - 28 Shenendehowa - 28
1 - Nicole Blood 10 02-A Saratoga 18:23
2 - Caitlin McTague 12 02-A Niskayuna 18:30
3 - Lindsey Ferguson 10 02-A Saratoga 19:24
4 - Ali Rowe 12 02-A Saratoga 19:49
5 - Sarah Rogers 11 02-A Shenendehowa 19:59
6 - Catherine Rossi 9 02-A Saratoga 20:01
7 - Ruby Solomon 11 02-A Saratoga 20:04
8 - Karyn Delay 11 02-A Saratoga 20:10
9 - Cameron Vahanian 10 02-A Saratoga 20:18
10 - Sarah Miller 12 02-A Niskayuna 20:29
BOYS
1 - Ryan Gaedje 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:45
2 - Jacob Gurzler 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:47
3 - Phil Roach 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:53
4 - Dan McManamon 10 02-A Shenendehowa 17:24
5 - Matt Gervasio 12 02-A Saratoga 17:27
6 - Brendan Marsh 11 02-A Shenendehowa 17:28
7 - Alex Grout 12 02-A Shenendehowa 17:32
8 - Greg Kiley 9 02-A Saratoga 17:33
9 - Tyler Lemire 02-A Shenendehowa 17:38
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Some Pre-Sept 02 Race Results of Interest
HMRRC - SEFCU Labor Day 5K
Sept 1, 2003 Central Park, Schenectady, New York
Mile Approx
Place Name Grade Sect School Time Pace Rating
===== ================== ===== ==== =============== ===== ==== ======
Males:
8 Brian Murphy 11 02-A Colonie 16:41 5:23 170
14 Justin Parietti 12 02-A Guilderland 17:01 5:30 164
15 Brian Rhodes-Devey 9 02-A Guilderland 17:04 5:31 163
16 Kyle Audi 12 02-A Colonie 17:09 5:32 161
18 Kevin Treadway 10 02-A Colonie 17:20 5:36 157
22 Joe Choiniere 12 02-A Colonie 17:29 5:39 154
23 Zake Zucker 12 02-A Guilderland 17:30 5:39 154
25 Kieran O'Connor 11 02-B Bishop Gibbons 17:36 5:41 152
45 Matt Reilly 8 02-A Colonie 18:27 5:58 135
46 Ian Wright 12 02-A Colonie 18:39 6:01 131
47 Ben Zucker 9 02-A Guilderland 18:43 6:03 130
Females:
29 Caitlin McTague 12 02-A Niskayuna 17:44 5:44 149
60 Eryka Perreault 12 02-A Colonie 19:20 6:15 117
62 Nicole Soblosky 10 02-A Colonie 19:31 6:18 114
68 Sarah Miller 12 02-A Niskayuna 19:38 6:20 111
84 Rachel Ohm 10 02-B Holy Names 20:05 6:29 102
95 Megan Lynch 11 02-A Guilderland 20:31 6:38 94
96 Andrea Kean 9 02-A Colonie 20:32 6:38 93
97 Kelly McGarry 11 02-B Mohonasen 20:42 6:41 90
98 Melissa Bredice 10 02-A Colonie 20:43 6:41 90
103 Emily McTague 8 02-A Niskayuna 20:49 6:43 88
110 Katelyn Reepmeyer 12 02-A Shaker 21:05 6:48 82
119 Alexi Rodriguez 12 02-A Colonie 21:25 6:55 76
*** Note: the Approximate Speed Ratings are based on a statistical
"best guess" ... accuracy is uncertain, but potentially
usable for future reference purposes.
Tony Luciano 5K
Aug 24, 2003 - Hudson Falls, NY
The Saratoga girls and the Argyle girls ran ... unfortunately,
Argyle's Caitlin Lane, Ashley Fung and Klara Varosy were not
100% (due to some cold/flu symptoms).
full results are now posted on: AdirondackRunners.com
Here are some high school runner result:
Overall
Place Name Grade Sect School Time Pace
----- ---------------- ----- ---- ----------------- ----- ----
Males:
1 Matt Gervasio 12 02-A Saratoga 16:30 5:19
2 Greg Kiley 9 02-A Saratoga 16:35 5:21
5 Stephen Lyons 12 02-C Broadalbin-Perth 16:57 5:28
6 Jeremy Beaudette 10 02-B Queensbury 16:58 5:28
7 Steve Soprano 10 02-B Queensbury 17:07 5:31
8 Nate Chandler 12 02-A Saratoga 17:09 5:32
9 Shane Zanetti 12 02-A Saratoga 17:34 5:40
14 Andrew Bangert 10 02-A Saratoga 17:57 5:47
Females:
11 Nicole Blood 10 02-A Saratoga 17:47 5:44
13 Lindsey Ferguson 10 02-A Saratoga 17:51 5:45
16 Hanna Davidson 8 02-D Argyle 18:07 5:50
17 Emily Fung 8 02-D Argyle 18:08 5:51
22 Karyn Delay 11 02-A Saratoga 18:29 5:57
25 Catherine Rossi 9 02-A Saratoga 18:44 6:02
27 Ali Rowe 12 02-A Saratoga 18:51 6:05
28 Cameron Vahanian 10 02-A Saratoga 18:52 6:05
31 Ashley Fung 8 02-D Argyle 19:01 6:08
37 Melissa Trauscht 11 02-A Saratoga 19:26 6:16
38 Klara Varosy 10 02-D Argyle 19:43 6:21
40 Kate Woodcock 11 02-A Saratoga 19:50 6:23
42 Ruby Solomon 11 02-A Saratoga 19:57 6:26
45 Amanda Deconno 10 02-A Saratoga 20:03 6:28
47 Carli Wilusz 10 02-A Saratoga 20:07 6:29
49 Liz Woodcock 8 02-A Saratoga 20:14 6:31
51 Ana Hoyos 12 02-A Saratoga 20:24 6:34
54 Julie Lambalot 12 02-A Saratoga 20:31 6:37
56 Lindsay Rapplyea 12 02-C Broadalbin-Perth 20:34 6:38
57 Alysha McElroy 9 02-A Saratoga 20:42 6:40
58 Brittania O'Keefe 8 02-D Argyle 20:49 6:42
59 Gabrielle Alberti 12 02-A Saratoga 20:50 6:43
63 Ashley Campbell 10 02-A Saratoga 20:56 6:45
66 Heather Mackay -- -------- 21:01 6:46
67 Heidi Parish 12 02-A Saratoga 21:06 6:48
13th-Annual Run for Jon 2.5-Mile Run
Aug 24, 2003 - Peru, NY
1 - Josh McDougal 12 Home-School 11:48 (4:43 mile pace)
2 - Jordan McDougal 11 Home-School 11:58 (4:47 mile pace)
Females:
Meghan McClelland 9 07-C ECKMW 16:05 (6:26 mile pace)
Emily Medeiros 10 07-C Saranac 17:00 (6:48 mile pace)
** Meghan McClelland finished 19th overall at the outdoor State
Track & Field Championship 3000 Meters (10:46.43) at Union-
Endicott ... ECKMU is a combined school designation for
several small schools in Section 7 ... I'm guessing they
are Class C due to the combination of Class D schools.
0-7 yr-old female class:
1 - Johnna McDougal 26:32 (10:37 mile pace) ... a future champion??
Chris Thater 5K
Aug 24, 2003 - Binghamton, NY
Elmira Southside is one of the top Class B girls teams in NYS.
Their results from the Chris Thater 5K are shown here ...
several top runners did not run (Shannon Semski, Courtney
Sandore) ... three runners moving up from last year's junior
high XC team ran well (Rachael Forrest, Alyssa Benjamin and
Carly Jordan) ... excellent performance by Sara Rice ...
Sara's twin sister (Janelle) has opted to play soccer.
Mile
Place Name Grade Sect School Time Pace
47 Sara Rice 12 04-B Elmira Southside 18:49 (6:04)
77 Taylor Sandore 11 04-B Elmira Southside 20:23 (6:34)
83 Rachael Forrest 9 04-B Elmira Southside 20:44 (6:41)
86 Heather Wida 11 04-B Elmira Southside 20:49 (6:42)
101 Alyssa Benjamin 9 04-B Elmira Southside 21:28 (6:55)
102 Carly Jordan 9 04-B Elmira Southside 21:28 (6:55)
Full Chris Thater 5K results at:
http://triplecitiesrunnersclub.org/thater_2003.html
Altamont 5K
August 23, 2003 - Altamont, NY
Place Name Grade Sect School Time Pace
1 Dave Raucci 11 09-B Red Hook 16:22 (5:16)
6 Justin Parietti 12 02-A Guilderland 17:27 (5:37)
7 Gary Domermuth 11 02-D Berne-Knox 17:28 (5:37)
10 Seth DuBois 10 02-A Guilderland 17:39 (5:41)
12 Kris Geist 11 02-D Berne-Knox 17:52 (5:45)
13 Brian Rhodes-Devey 9 02-A Guilderland 17:55 (5:46)
Females:
31 Sarah Domermuth 12 02-D Berne-Knox-West 19:23 (6:15)
35 Brina Seguine 9 02-A Columbia 19:36 (6:19)
40 Katelyn Reepmeyer 12 02-A Shaker 19:53 (6:24)
The Fifth Spound To Bay Fireman's 10K
Aug 24, 2003 - Jamesport, NY
2 - Jonathan Toro 12 11-A William Floyd 34:23 (5:32 pace)
Brentwood Rotary Cookie 5K (www.FLRRT.com results)
Aug 18, 2003
1 - Geary Gubbins 11 11-C Southampton 16:03 (5:10 pace)
10 - Bryan Quinn Grad 11-A Northport 16:54 (5:27 pace)
Very good race by Geary Gubbins - could be one of best Class C runners
in the State ... Bryan Quinn will be attending the Univ. of Conn. this
fall.
Toyfest 10K
Aug 24, 2003 - East Aurora, NY
1 - Colin Meyers 12 CHS St. Marys-Lanc 32:19 (5:13 pace)
** very good 10K time by Colin Meyers (a top CHSAA runner)
Mississippi Mudd's 5K River Run
Aug 23, 2003 - Tonawanda, NY
1 - Dennis Pollow 11 06-C Wilson 16:52 (5:26 pace)
Females:
1 - Shannon Crane 11 06-A Lancaster 18:20 (5:55 pace)
** this is one of several very good performances by
Shannon Crane (more below) ... could be emerging
as a top Class A runner (a very loaded class)!!
2nd Annual Kathleen Kavanagh 5K
Aug 15, 2003 - Lancaster, NY
1 - Dan Giza 12 06-A Lancaster 16:06 (5:11 pace)
Females:
1 - Shannon Crane 11 06-A Lancaster 18:32 (5:58 pace)
2 - Caitlin English 11 CHS Nardin Acad 19:58 (6:26 pace)
17th Annual Village Glen Moonlight Run 5K
Aug 13, 2003 - Williamsville, NY
1-(F15-19) - Shannon Crane 06-A Lancaster 19:03 (6:09 pace)
Tour De Pain IX
Aug 21, 2003 - Cobbs Hills and McQuaid Jesuit HS
1 - Kyle Heath 12 05-B Victor 17:16
5 - Robert Young 12 05-B Newark 18:11
Females:
Vanessa Love-McCarthy 12 05-A Penfield 21:44
Innovative Edge Summer 5k Cross Country Series #2
Aug 14, 2003 @ Cobbs Hill Park (85 degrees & humid)
1 - Kyle Heath 12 05-B Victor 16:55
(New HS course record, #12 all-time performance @ Cobbs Hill Park)
5 - Connor Martin 11 05-A Fairport 17:50
Bethlehem X-C 5K #2 - HMRRC Grand Prix
Aug 18, 2003 - Elm Avenue Park
4 - Dave Raucci 11 09-B Red Hook 17:52
12 - Caitlin McTague 12 02-A Niskayuna 18:38
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