[Back to TullyRunners Home Page]
Federation Championship Meet - ProjectionS & Results
Predicted Scores were posted on November 13, 2003 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... updated Nov 16, 2003 with the Actual Result
| BOYS Federation 2003 - Projections |
BOYS Federation Team Score Projection ACTUAL Score
========================================= =============================
1 Shenendehowa 59 02-A Shenendehowa 43
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 201 03-A Warwick Valley 193
3 North Rockland 232 01-A St. Anthony's 209
4 Lockport 234 06-A Lockport 214
5 Warwick Valley 245 09-A Chaminade 218
6 Colonie 266 02-A Fayetteville-Manlius 232
7 Arlington 286 01-A Colonie 242
8 Bethlehem 296 02-A North Rockland 250
9 St. Anthonys 319 CHSAA Arlington 283
10 Chaminade 319 CHSAA Monroe-Woodbury 313
11 Fairport 339 05-A Bethlehem 327
12 Rush-Henrietta 353 05-A South Lewis 329
13 Guilderland 354 02-A Guilderland 341
14 South Lewis 363 03-C Tully 347
15 Tappan Zee 366 01-B Rush-Henrietta 380
16 Tully 382 03-D Ithaca 397
17 Ithaca 388 04-A Tappan Zee 399
18 Monsignor Farrell 396 CHSAA Monsignor Farrell 418
19 Monroe-Woodbury 397 09-A Fairport 444
20 Collegiate 415 AIS Liverpool 461
21 Liverpool 419 03-A Fordham Prep 506
22 Curtis 454 PSAL Curtis 525
23 Fordham Prep 502 CHSAA Canisius 549
24 Canisius 510 CHSAA St. Francis Prep 563
25 DeWitt Clinton 568 PSAL Erasmus Hall 638
26 Erasmus Hall 586 PSAL Midwood 677
27 Midwood 613 PSAL Collegiate 686
28 St. Francis 632 CHSAA DeWitt Clinton 769
|
| Post-Race
... Shenendehowa ran very well
showing their team dominance in 2003 ... Excellent team effort by Warwick
Valley to finish second ... Lockport proved again they belong the
NY's Fab-Five ... The two teams to improve most on the projections were
St. Anthony's and Chaminade - not only are they very good teams,
they came prepared to compete at a high level (perhaps a little better than
some of the NYSPHAAA teams) ... Monroe-Woodbury also did much better
than the projection - the proved their "at-large" selection was justified
(and that their surprise win over Warwick earlier in the year was for real)
... Fayetteville-Manlius ran decently, but not up to the performance
level at States. Overall, I am fairly satisfied with the team projections ... Federations can be somewhat difficult to predict, especially to exact point totals - looking above, in general the teams at the top scored lower totals than predicted and the teams near the bottom scored higher. Team Outlook ... Shenendehowa is the big favorite to repeat as Federation Champions ... Shen did not run their best at States, but they still won easily - if they run their best, their score will be lower than shown above - if they run similar to States, their score will be higher ... Fayetteville-Manlius continued to run well at States by finishing 2nd in both the Class A race and merged results ... North Rockland has a home course advantage over most teams and could do very well - I thought the same thing at last year's Feds, but North Rockland had an off-day - look for them to perform better this year ... Lockport and Warwick Valley are not too far behind, and are capable of contending for the 2nd and 3rd team places. Colonie, Arlington and Bethlehem are "at-large" selections ... all three are very good teams ... Arlington should have an advantage since they run at Bowdoin Park frequently ... Colonie and Bethlehem hope to show a Section 2 superiority and prove that another Section 2 team should have been invited as an "at-large" selection. St. Anthony's and Chaminade appear to be the top CHSAA, AIS and PSAL teams ... Chaminade beat St. Anthony's at the CHSAA Championships at Van Cortlandt Park ... St. Anthony's Matt Flynn is not entered to compete (he did not run at CHSAA Champs) and that certainly hurts their team chances ... at this point, I can't really separate the two teams, but St. Anthony's will probably run better at Feds than at the CHSAA Champs ... (Nov 13 update ... Chaminade has added Ryan McDermott to their line-up which could help their team score) I'm biased towards Tully for obvious reasons, but I badly under-predicted their team performance at States ... after reviewing my prediction, I can state with absolute certainty that I would never be able to predict how well Tully ran in million years!! Their team score always depends on how well the 3#, #4 and #5 runners perform because Lomong & Luka have run 1st and 2nd in every team race ... a typical gauge of team performance is the time difference between the 1st and 5th runner ... I went back over Tully's season to find the average and closest time differences between Lomong-Luka and our 3rd, 4th and 5th runners at States - all three improved by 30 to 65 seconds each ... I have never seen that much improvement by three such runners at this point in the season ... It allowed Tully to finish 6th in the merged team score at States. Another team benefited by Tully's dramatic improvement ... and that team was Liverpool who got invited as an "at-large" selection ... The argument that helped Liverpool get invited went as follows: Tully finished 6th overall in the State merge ahead of both the Class B and Class C champions ... two weeks before, Liverpool beat Tully by 44 points head-to-head at the OHSL Championships and one week before, Liverpool beat Tully by 85 points in the Section 3 Championship merge ... that's a fairly convincing argument to help Liverpool, but The Tully team at States was much improved compared to the previous two weeks ... In addition, the excellent performances by Fayetteville-Manlius and South Lewis helped Liverpool.
|
| Individuals
... Some of the top runners competing
are listed below ... Although Hakon DeVries is listed in the entries,
he will not be running ... I think this could be a very close race
between Lopez Lomong, Kyle Heath, Bryan Buchanan, Kevin Tschirhart, Dominic Luka and Teddy Quinn ... Lomong has been
running very strongly, so I would make him a slight favorite ... Luka
has run his best on flat & soft courses because of his knee - unfortunately,
Bowdoin has hills and side-hills which is not good for his knee - but
Luka picks his spots to race all-out and could surprise. Buchanan looked great at States ... he's very good at following other runners and closing strongly near the finish ... when he raced Lomong and Luka at the OHSL Championships, he tried to lead them early plus he got some large wood chips suck in his spikes that wouldn't come out ... a real threat to win. Kyle Heath is an excellent runner ... forced Hakon DeVries to go all-out to beat him at the Wildcat Invitational ... Kevin Tschirhart slipped in the mud and fell at States losing a chance to win ... both Heath and Tschirhart are capable of winning. |
Projected
Some Top Runners at Federations Bowdoin Time ACTUAL Place & Time
====================================== ============ ============================================
1 Lopez Lomong 12 03-D Tully 16:00 1 - 15:45.37
2 Kyle Heath 12 05-B Victor 16:09 3 - 16:00.21
3 Bryan Buchanan 12 03-A CNS 16:12 47 - 17:08.27 (sick with virus,nose bled)
4 Kevin Tschirhart 11 11-A Northport 16:18 4 - 16:01.05
5 Dominic Luka 12 03-D Tully 16:18 2 - 15:52.34
6 Teddy Quinn 12 05-A Rush-Henrietta 16:21 6 - 16:15.81
7 Jake LaRoe 12 09-A Warwick 16:24 13 - 16:29.49
8 Andre Silva 12 11-A Middle Country 16:24 27 - 16:45.37
9 Mark Stevens 12 05-B Pittsford Suth 16:24 10 - 16:26.37
10 Ryan Gaedje 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:24 8 - 16:21.62
11 Jacob Gurzler 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:27 5 - 16:11.99
12 Scott Mindel 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:27 7 - 16:20.65
13 Carlos Jamieson 11 01-A North Rockland 16:33 11 - 16:26.81
14 Kyle Fiascanaro 12 11-A Commack 16:33 101 - 17:38.18
15 John Martinez 11 01-A North Rockland 16:36 12 - 16:28.55
16 Mike Deren 11 06-A Frontier 16:36 24 - 16:40.93
17 David Weart 12 09-C James O'Neill 16:39 26 - 16:45.11
18 Kevin McDermott 11 CHS Chaminade 16:39 9 - 16:23.65
19 Leo Smith 11 05-D East Rochester 16:39 25 - 16:41.96
20 Bill Ceriello 12 01-A Arlington 16:39 18 - 16:32.96
21 Phil Roach 12 02-A Shenendehowa 16:39 16 - 16:31.71
22 Brian McCabe 12 CHS Fordham Prep 16:42 59 - 17:17.99
23 Jared Burdick 11 03-A FM 16:42 17 - 16:32.21
24 Josh Arthur 11 03-C South Lewis 16:45 14 - 16:30.34
25 Dan Busby 10 04-D Seton Catholic 16:45 21 - 16:36.34
26 John Nicotera 11 03-C Sauquoit Valley 16:45 57 - 17:15.68
27 Kevin Treadway 10 02-A Colonie 16:48 30 - 16:47.14
28 Jim Butcher 12 08-B Garden City 16:48 33 - 16:51.81
29 Ben Adams 11 03-A Central Square 16:48 42 - 17:03.52
|
| GIRLS Federation 2003 - Projections |
GIRLS Federation Team Score Projection ACTUAL Score
======================================== =============================
1 Saratoga 40 02-A Saratoga 42
2 Argyle 107 02-D Argyle 90
3 Bethlehem 221 02-A Bethlehem 155
4 Niskayuna 223 02-A Warwick Valley 211
5 Bay Shore 232 11-A Bay Shore 212
6 Honeoye Falls-Lima 242 05-B Ward Melville 221
7 Columbia 247 02-A Honeoye Falls-Lima 241
8 Warwick Valley 262 09-A Shenendehowa 278
9 Monroe-Woodbury 269 09-A Cicero North Syracuse 284
10 Ward Melville 285 11-A Monroe-Woodbury 292
11 Fairport 285 05-A Fairport 293
12 Shenendehowa 294 02-A Beaver River 296
13 Beaver River 351 03-D Skaneateles 298
14 Cicero-N Syracuse 360 03-A Columbia 308
15 Skaneateles 361 03-C Liverpool 316
16 Liverpool 366 03-A Niskayuna 323
17 St. Anthonys 457 CHSAA St. Anthony's 424
18 Nardin Academy 496 CHSAA Nardin Academy 444
19 St. John Villa 502 CHSAA Mckee/S.I. Tech 516
20 Mckee/S.I. Tech 524 PSAL Townsend Harris 565
21 St. John Bapt 564 CHSAA St. John The Baptist 584
22 Kellenberg 578 CHSAA Kellenberg Memorial 607
23 St. Francis Prep 579 CHSAA St. John Villa 631
24 Townsend Harris 607 PSAL St. Francis Prep 670
25 Boys & Girls 611 PSAL Stuyvesant 702
26 Hackley 614 AIS Hackley School 714
27 Stuyvesant 719 PSAL Boys & Girls 737
|
| Post-Race
... Saratoga and Argyle
ran as expected - Argyle ran very well ... Bethlehem proved
they were the best "at-large" selection as projected ... Warwick Valley
is a very talented team and ran well ... Bay Shore is still in the
top five (even without Mary Liz McCurdy) ... Ward Melville and
Monroe-Woodbury justified their selection as "at-large" teams ... The
Section 3 teams ran pretty much as expected with Cicero-North Syracuse
running very well ... Shenedehowa was
probably the last Section 2 teams selected as an as "at-large" team, but
they ran much better than Niskayuna or Columbia - however, Niskayuna's
#2 runner was unable to run due to a foot injury. Team Outlook ... Saratoga and Argyle are currently the #1 and #7 ranked teams in the entire nation for good reason - they are incredibly good ... Saratoga's remarkable team depth is the envy of every other cross country team program ... Argyle can lay claim to being the best small school team in the nation ... I don't see either team being challenged for the top two spots at Feds. Now for some controversy ... Section 2 got four "at-large" berths including Bethlehem, Niskayuna, Columbia and Shenendehowa ... many coaches outside of Section 2 were not particularly happy (I've been getting some e-mails wondering if I'm partly at fault because I rated them very highly) ... Suffern and Elmira Southside barley missed getting automatic bids from the merged results, and many people think they should have been selected - and I happen to be one of them ... It's all a matter of opinion, but I think States is an "audition" for Feds, and Suffern and Elmira Southside passed the audition ... Yes, my ratings say some other teams might be stronger, but I think it's better to select qualified teams that actually qualified and competed at States. Last year, the two Section 2 "at-large" teams (Columbia and Colonie) did not finish very well (neither finished in the top 10) ... I expect the Section 2 "at-large" teams will do much better this year because they are very good teams ... Actually, positions three through twelve are relatively wide open because all the teams are capable ... Honeoye Falls-Lima seems to rise to the occasion at Feds, so I won't be surprised to see them finish third.
|
| Individuals ... Some of the top runners competing are listed below ... Nicole Blood is the favorite, but just behind are a large group of outstanding runners ... several have a realistic chance of qualifying for Footlocker Nationals (and three of them did just that last year). |
Projected
Some Top Runners at Federations Bowdoin Time ACTUAL Place & Time
====================================== ============ ==============================
1 Nicole Blood 10 02-A Saratoga 18:09 1 - 17:57.90
2 Laura Cummings 11 11-A Bay Shore 18:24 4 - 18:30.30
3 Aislinn Ryan 10 09-A Warwick 18:27 2 - 18:22.50
4 Nichole Lister 11 03-C South Jefferson 18:33 7 - 18:34.30
5 Lindsey Ferguson 10 02-A Saratoga 18:33 5 - 18:30.70
6 Caitlin McTague 12 02-A Niskayuna 18:39 6 - 18:33.90
7 Brittany Crawford 12 03-A FM 18:42 8 - 18:40.90
8 Brittany Sheffey 9 11-A Bellport 18:45 18 - 19:04.00
9 Heather Iatauro 12 09-D Tri-Valley 18:51 19 - 19:08.30
10 Caitlin Lane 8 02-D Argyle 18:51 3 - 18:25.60
11 Emily Fung 8 02-D Argyle 18:51 10 - 18:42.90
12 Ellen Dougherty 11 11-A Riverhead 18:51 22 - 19:18.20
13 Shannon Crane 11 06-A Lancaster 18:55 12 - 18:48.50
14 Ruby Solomon 11 02-A Saratoga 18:57 9 - 18:42.30
15 Emily Malinowski 11 02-A Bethlehem 19:03 17 - 19:03.20
16 Nicki Junod 10 03-A CNS 19:06 13 - 18:51.90
17 Lynn Kubeja 12 05-B Honeoye FL 19:06 11 - 18:45.00
18 Sarah Allen 12 04-B Southern Springs 19:06 24 - 19:21.20
19 Cameron Vahanian 10 02-A Saratoga 19:06 16 - 19:00.40
20 Kara McKenna 10 01-A Suffern 19:15 15 - 18:57.40
21 Fiona Cundy 11 04-B Maine-Endwell 19:15 33 - 19:33.80
22 Anjelica Gregory 12 AIS Hackley 19:15 104 - 20:45.00
23 Liz Cufari 12 05-B Pittsford Suth 19:18 14 - 18:55.20
24 Kristy Longman 9 11-B Sayville 19:18 20 - 19:09.10
25 Hannah Davidson 8 02-D Argyle 19:18 27 - 19:26.90
26 Danielle Schaub 11 02-B Scotia-Glenville 19:21 21 - 19:13.80
27 Lindsay Sundell 12 11-A Northport 19:21 36 - 19:38.20
28 Catherine Rossi 9 02-A Saratoga 19:24 78 - 20:19.20
29 Marie Parks 11 03-A CNS 19:24 23 - 19:19.70
30 Karyn Delay 11 02-A Saratoga 19:27 30 - 19:29.30
31 Liz Deir 9 05-B Honeoye FL 19:27 29 - 19:28.40
32 Pam O'Sullivan 11 11-A Bay Shore 19:30 28 - 19:27.70
|