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 Federation Championship Meet - ProjectionS & Results

Predicted Scores were posted on November 13, 2003 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... updated Nov 16, 2003 with the Actual Result

 

 

 BOYS Federation 2003 - Projections
 



    BOYS Federation Team Score Projection            ACTUAL Score
   =========================================         =============================
    1    Shenendehowa            59    02-A          Shenendehowa               43
    2    Fayetteville-Manlius   201    03-A          Warwick Valley            193
    3    North Rockland         232    01-A          St. Anthony's             209
    4    Lockport               234    06-A          Lockport                  214
    5    Warwick Valley         245    09-A          Chaminade                 218
    6    Colonie                266    02-A          Fayetteville-Manlius      232
    7    Arlington              286    01-A          Colonie                   242
    8    Bethlehem              296    02-A          North Rockland            250
    9    St. Anthonys           319    CHSAA         Arlington                 283
    10   Chaminade              319    CHSAA         Monroe-Woodbury           313
    11   Fairport               339    05-A          Bethlehem                 327
    12   Rush-Henrietta         353    05-A          South Lewis               329
    13   Guilderland            354    02-A          Guilderland               341
    14   South Lewis            363    03-C          Tully                     347
    15   Tappan Zee             366    01-B          Rush-Henrietta            380
    16   Tully                  382    03-D          Ithaca                    397
    17   Ithaca                 388    04-A          Tappan Zee                399
    18   Monsignor Farrell      396    CHSAA         Monsignor Farrell         418
    19   Monroe-Woodbury        397    09-A          Fairport                  444
    20   Collegiate             415    AIS           Liverpool                 461
    21   Liverpool              419    03-A          Fordham Prep              506
    22   Curtis                 454    PSAL          Curtis                    525
    23   Fordham Prep           502    CHSAA         Canisius                  549
    24   Canisius               510    CHSAA         St. Francis Prep          563
    25   DeWitt Clinton         568    PSAL          Erasmus Hall              638
    26   Erasmus Hall           586    PSAL          Midwood                   677
    27   Midwood                613    PSAL          Collegiate                686
    28   St. Francis            632    CHSAA         DeWitt Clinton            769

    
Post-Race ... Shenendehowa ran very well showing their team dominance in 2003 ... Excellent team effort by Warwick Valley to finish second ... Lockport proved again they belong the NY's Fab-Five ... The two teams to improve most on the projections were St. Anthony's and Chaminade - not only are they very good teams, they came prepared to compete at a high level (perhaps a little better than some of the NYSPHAAA teams) ... Monroe-Woodbury also did much better than the projection - the proved their "at-large" selection was justified (and that their surprise win over Warwick earlier in the year was for real) ... Fayetteville-Manlius ran decently, but not up to the performance level at States.

Overall, I am fairly satisfied with the team projections ... Federations can be somewhat difficult to predict, especially to exact point totals - looking above, in general the teams at the top scored lower totals than predicted and the teams near the bottom scored higher.

Team Outlook ... Shenendehowa is the big favorite to repeat as Federation Champions ... Shen did not run their best at States, but they still won easily - if they run their best, their score will be lower than shown above - if they run similar to States, their score will be higher ... Fayetteville-Manlius continued to run well at States by finishing 2nd in both the Class A race and merged results ... North Rockland has a home course advantage over most teams and could do very well - I thought the same thing at last year's Feds, but North Rockland had an off-day - look for them to perform better this year ... Lockport and Warwick Valley are not too far behind, and are capable of contending for the 2nd and 3rd team places.

Colonie, Arlington and Bethlehem are "at-large" selections ... all three are very good teams ... Arlington should have an advantage since they run at Bowdoin Park frequently ... Colonie and Bethlehem hope to show a Section 2 superiority and prove that another Section 2 team should have been invited as an "at-large" selection.

St. Anthony's and Chaminade appear to be the top CHSAA, AIS and PSAL teams ... Chaminade beat St. Anthony's at the CHSAA Championships at Van Cortlandt Park ... St. Anthony's Matt Flynn is not entered to compete (he did not run at CHSAA Champs) and that certainly hurts their team chances ... at this point, I can't really separate the two teams, but St. Anthony's will probably run better at Feds than at the CHSAA Champs ... (Nov 13 update ... Chaminade has added Ryan McDermott to their line-up which could help their team score)

I'm biased towards Tully for obvious reasons, but I badly under-predicted their team performance at States ... after reviewing my prediction, I can state with absolute certainty that I would never be able to predict how well Tully ran in million years!!  Their team score always depends on how well the 3#, #4 and #5 runners perform because Lomong & Luka have run 1st and 2nd in every team race ... a typical gauge of team performance is the time difference between the 1st and 5th runner ... I went back over Tully's season to find the average and closest time differences between Lomong-Luka and our 3rd, 4th and 5th runners at States - all three improved by 30 to 65 seconds each ... I have never seen that much improvement by three such runners at this point in the season ... It allowed Tully to finish 6th in the merged team score at States.

Another team benefited by Tully's dramatic improvement ... and that team was Liverpool who got invited as an "at-large" selection ... The argument that helped Liverpool get invited went as follows: Tully finished 6th overall in the State merge ahead of both the Class B and Class C champions ... two weeks before, Liverpool beat Tully by 44 points head-to-head at the OHSL Championships and one week before, Liverpool beat Tully by 85 points in the Section 3 Championship merge ... that's a fairly convincing argument to help Liverpool, but The Tully team at States was much improved compared to the previous two weeks ... In addition, the excellent performances by Fayetteville-Manlius and South Lewis helped Liverpool.

 

Individuals ... Some of the top runners competing are listed below ... Although Hakon DeVries is listed in the entries, he will not be running ... I think this could be a very close race between Lopez Lomong, Kyle Heath, Bryan Buchanan, Kevin Tschirhart, Dominic Luka and Teddy Quinn ... Lomong has been running very strongly, so I would make him a slight favorite ... Luka has run his best on flat & soft courses because of his knee - unfortunately, Bowdoin has hills and side-hills which is not good for his knee - but Luka picks his spots to race all-out and could surprise.

Buchanan looked great at States ... he's very good at following other runners and closing strongly near the finish ... when he raced Lomong and Luka at the OHSL Championships, he tried to lead them early plus he got some large wood chips suck in his spikes that wouldn't come out ... a real threat to win.

Kyle Heath is an excellent runner ... forced Hakon DeVries to go all-out to beat him at the Wildcat Invitational ... Kevin Tschirhart slipped in the mud and fell at States losing a chance to win ... both Heath and Tschirhart are capable of winning.

 


                                               Projected
    Some Top Runners at Federations         Bowdoin Time    ACTUAL Place & Time
    ======================================  ============    ============================================
1   Lopez Lomong      12  03-D   Tully             16:00      1  -  15:45.37
2   Kyle Heath        12  05-B   Victor            16:09      3  -  16:00.21
3   Bryan Buchanan    12  03-A   CNS               16:12     47  -  17:08.27 (sick with virus,nose bled)
4   Kevin Tschirhart  11  11-A   Northport         16:18      4  -  16:01.05
5   Dominic Luka      12  03-D   Tully             16:18      2  -  15:52.34
6   Teddy Quinn       12  05-A   Rush-Henrietta    16:21      6  -  16:15.81
7   Jake LaRoe        12  09-A   Warwick           16:24     13  -  16:29.49
8   Andre Silva       12  11-A   Middle Country    16:24     27  -  16:45.37
9   Mark Stevens      12  05-B   Pittsford Suth    16:24     10  -  16:26.37
10  Ryan Gaedje       12  02-A   Shenendehowa      16:24      8  -  16:21.62
11  Jacob Gurzler     12  02-A   Shenendehowa      16:27      5  -  16:11.99
12  Scott Mindel      12  02-A   Shenendehowa      16:27      7  -  16:20.65
13  Carlos Jamieson   11  01-A   North Rockland    16:33     11  -  16:26.81
14  Kyle Fiascanaro   12  11-A   Commack           16:33    101  -  17:38.18
15  John Martinez     11  01-A   North Rockland    16:36     12  -  16:28.55
16  Mike Deren        11  06-A   Frontier          16:36     24  -  16:40.93
17  David Weart       12  09-C   James O'Neill     16:39     26  -  16:45.11
18  Kevin McDermott   11  CHS    Chaminade         16:39      9  -  16:23.65
19  Leo Smith         11  05-D   East Rochester    16:39     25  -  16:41.96
20  Bill Ceriello     12  01-A   Arlington         16:39     18  -  16:32.96
21  Phil Roach        12  02-A   Shenendehowa      16:39     16  -  16:31.71
22  Brian McCabe      12  CHS    Fordham Prep      16:42     59  -  17:17.99
23  Jared Burdick     11  03-A   FM                16:42     17  -  16:32.21
24  Josh Arthur       11  03-C   South Lewis       16:45     14  -  16:30.34
25  Dan Busby         10  04-D   Seton Catholic    16:45     21  -  16:36.34
26  John Nicotera     11  03-C   Sauquoit Valley   16:45     57  -  17:15.68
27  Kevin Treadway    10  02-A   Colonie           16:48     30  -  16:47.14
28  Jim Butcher       12  08-B   Garden City       16:48     33  -  16:51.81
29  Ben Adams         11  03-A   Central Square    16:48     42  -  17:03.52



    

 

 GIRLS Federation 2003 - Projections
 



    GIRLS Federation Team Score Projection           ACTUAL Score
   ========================================          =============================
    1    Saratoga                40    02-A          Saratoga                   42
    2    Argyle                 107    02-D          Argyle                     90
    3    Bethlehem              221    02-A          Bethlehem                 155
    4    Niskayuna              223    02-A          Warwick Valley            211
    5    Bay Shore              232    11-A          Bay Shore                 212
    6    Honeoye Falls-Lima     242    05-B          Ward Melville             221
    7    Columbia               247    02-A          Honeoye Falls-Lima        241
    8    Warwick Valley         262    09-A          Shenendehowa              278
    9    Monroe-Woodbury        269    09-A          Cicero North Syracuse     284
    10   Ward Melville          285    11-A          Monroe-Woodbury           292
    11   Fairport               285    05-A          Fairport                  293
    12   Shenendehowa           294    02-A          Beaver River              296
    13   Beaver River           351    03-D          Skaneateles               298
    14   Cicero-N Syracuse      360    03-A          Columbia                  308
    15   Skaneateles            361    03-C          Liverpool                 316
    16   Liverpool              366    03-A          Niskayuna                 323
    17   St. Anthonys           457    CHSAA         St. Anthony's             424
    18   Nardin Academy         496    CHSAA         Nardin Academy            444
    19   St. John Villa         502    CHSAA         Mckee/S.I. Tech           516
    20   Mckee/S.I. Tech        524    PSAL          Townsend Harris           565
    21   St. John Bapt          564    CHSAA         St. John The Baptist      584
    22   Kellenberg             578    CHSAA         Kellenberg Memorial       607
    23   St. Francis Prep       579    CHSAA         St. John Villa            631
    24   Townsend Harris        607    PSAL          St. Francis Prep          670
    25   Boys & Girls           611    PSAL          Stuyvesant                702
    26   Hackley                614    AIS           Hackley School            714
    27   Stuyvesant             719    PSAL          Boys & Girls              737
    
Post-Race ... Saratoga and Argyle ran as expected - Argyle ran very well ... Bethlehem proved they were the best "at-large" selection as projected ... Warwick Valley is a very talented team and ran well ... Bay Shore is still in the top five (even without Mary Liz McCurdy) ... Ward Melville and Monroe-Woodbury justified their selection as "at-large" teams ... The Section 3 teams ran pretty much as expected with Cicero-North Syracuse running very well ... Shenedehowa was probably the last Section 2 teams selected as an as "at-large" team, but they ran much better than Niskayuna or Columbia - however, Niskayuna's #2 runner was unable to run due to a foot injury.

Team Outlook ... Saratoga and Argyle are currently the #1 and #7 ranked teams in the entire nation for good reason - they are incredibly good ... Saratoga's remarkable team depth is the envy of every other cross country team program ... Argyle can lay claim to being the best small school team in the nation ... I don't see either team being challenged for the top two spots at Feds.

Now for some controversy ... Section 2 got four "at-large" berths including Bethlehem, Niskayuna, Columbia and Shenendehowa ... many coaches outside of Section 2 were not particularly happy (I've been getting some e-mails wondering if I'm partly at fault because I rated them very highly) ... Suffern and Elmira Southside barley missed getting automatic bids from the merged results, and many people think they should have been selected - and I happen to be one of them ... It's all a matter of opinion, but I think States is an "audition" for Feds, and Suffern and Elmira Southside passed the audition ... Yes, my ratings say some other teams might be stronger, but I think it's better to select qualified teams that actually qualified and competed at States.

Last year, the two Section 2 "at-large" teams (Columbia and Colonie) did not finish very well (neither finished in the top 10) ... I expect the Section 2 "at-large" teams will do much better this year because they are very good teams ... Actually, positions three through twelve are relatively wide open because all the teams are capable ... Honeoye Falls-Lima seems to rise to the occasion at Feds, so I won't be surprised to see them finish third.

 

Individuals ... Some of the top runners competing are listed below ... Nicole Blood is the favorite, but just behind are a large group of outstanding runners ... several have a realistic chance of qualifying for Footlocker Nationals (and three of them did just that last year).
 



                                               Projected
    Some Top Runners at Federations         Bowdoin Time      ACTUAL Place & Time
    ======================================  ============      ==============================
1   Nicole Blood       10  02-A  Saratoga          18:09       1  -  17:57.90
2   Laura Cummings     11  11-A  Bay Shore         18:24       4  -  18:30.30
3   Aislinn Ryan       10  09-A  Warwick           18:27       2  -  18:22.50
4   Nichole Lister     11  03-C  South Jefferson   18:33       7  -  18:34.30
5   Lindsey Ferguson   10  02-A  Saratoga          18:33       5  -  18:30.70
6   Caitlin McTague    12  02-A  Niskayuna         18:39       6  -  18:33.90
7   Brittany Crawford  12  03-A  FM                18:42       8  -  18:40.90
8   Brittany Sheffey   9   11-A  Bellport          18:45      18  -  19:04.00
9   Heather Iatauro    12  09-D  Tri-Valley        18:51      19  -  19:08.30
10  Caitlin Lane       8   02-D  Argyle            18:51       3  -  18:25.60
11  Emily Fung         8   02-D  Argyle            18:51      10  -  18:42.90
12  Ellen Dougherty    11  11-A  Riverhead         18:51      22  -  19:18.20
13  Shannon Crane      11  06-A  Lancaster         18:55      12  -  18:48.50
14  Ruby Solomon       11  02-A  Saratoga          18:57       9  -  18:42.30
15  Emily Malinowski   11  02-A  Bethlehem         19:03      17  -  19:03.20
16  Nicki Junod        10  03-A  CNS               19:06      13  -  18:51.90
17  Lynn Kubeja        12  05-B  Honeoye FL        19:06      11  -  18:45.00
18  Sarah Allen        12  04-B  Southern Springs  19:06      24  -  19:21.20
19  Cameron Vahanian   10  02-A  Saratoga          19:06      16  -  19:00.40
20  Kara McKenna       10  01-A  Suffern           19:15      15  -  18:57.40
21  Fiona Cundy        11  04-B  Maine-Endwell     19:15      33  -  19:33.80
22  Anjelica Gregory   12  AIS   Hackley           19:15     104  -  20:45.00
23  Liz Cufari         12  05-B  Pittsford Suth    19:18      14  -  18:55.20
24  Kristy Longman     9   11-B  Sayville          19:18      20  -  19:09.10
25  Hannah Davidson    8   02-D  Argyle            19:18      27  -  19:26.90
26  Danielle Schaub    11  02-B  Scotia-Glenville  19:21      21  -  19:13.80
27  Lindsay Sundell    12  11-A  Northport         19:21      36  -  19:38.20
28  Catherine Rossi    9   02-A  Saratoga          19:24      78  -  20:19.20
29  Marie Parks        11  03-A  CNS               19:24      23  -  19:19.70
30  Karyn Delay        11  02-A  Saratoga          19:27      30  -  19:29.30
31  Liz Deir           9   05-B  Honeoye FL        19:27      29  -  19:28.40
32  Pam O'Sullivan     11  11-A  Bay Shore         19:30      28  -  19:27.70