TullyRunners - Article
Some Speed Comparisons of NXN & Foot Locker 2016
by Bill Meylan (December 17, 2016)
Technical Article (for viewers interested in speed ratings) ..... Recent inquiries prompted this article ... Some viewers were interested in the details of "how I calculated the speed ratings" for NXN and Foot Locker 2016 ... and, "Do I think my posted speed ratings are accurate?".
For
reference, the speed ratings for the top 35 finishers
at NXN and Foot Locker 2016 are posted below (for
both boys & girls) ... Complete speed ratings are available on my
NXN Results and
Foot Locker Results pages
... I evaluated the speed of both races by several different methods
typically used when I derive speed ratings ... I also applied criteria
learned over years of evaluating Foot Locker and NXN races
(consistency of methodology being key) ... and I am reasonably satisfied
with the accuracy of my speed ratings
.
The 2016 races offer some interesting insights as to the relative quality of the NXN and Foot Locker races ... A discussion of the relative quality highlights some speed ratings considerations, so that's what I'm going talk about in this article.
Graphical evaluation is one method of determining speed ratings ... So for me, any speed comparison includes graphing the results of NXN and Foot Locker on the same graph and interpreting what the graph illustrates ... Below are graphs depicting the actual race times of the top 35 finishers at both races for both girls and boys ... Foot Locker had only 40 runners in each of the girls and boys races, and I excluded the slowest five (not unusual for them to run slower than normal and look like outliers).
Please notice the following on the graphs ... Note how close the race times of the top 35 girls are to each other ... Then see that the boys at Foot Locker ran much faster relative to the boys at NXN.
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The top 35 girls at Foot Locker ran an average of 3.6 seconds faster than the top 35 girls at NXN.
The top 35 boys at Foot Locker ran an average of 26.9 seconds faster than the top 35 boys at NXN.
This is a discrepancy ... Why were the boys at Foot Locker so much faster on a relative basis than the girls?? ... The boys and girls at Foot Locker and NXN ran the same course at each (so different course or different distance is not the answer) ... Two reasons typically account for this type of discrepancy when it occurs:
(1) Quality in Terms of Speed
... one group of girls or boys are simply faster than another on a relative
basis.
(2) Weather or Course Deterioration ... a major weather change from one race
to the other ... course deterioration such as mud.
Both of these reasons come into play when evaluating NXN and Foot Locker 2016 ... and evaluating the reasons has an effect on the speed ratings.
Quality Difference Between Foot Locker and NXN 2016
This is about speed ratings, so "quality" refers to speed as measured by speed ratings ... and the "quality" entering each race could be determined by the speed ratings of the top 35 individuals for a relative comparison ... Did the top 35 boys or girls at NXN have higher speed ratings than the same group at Foot Locker entering the race??
There are several "speed ratings"
that might be used to compare the groups:
(1) Overall Speed Rating
(2) Highest Speed Rating
(3) Projected Speed Rating
Projected speed rating is time-consuming ... based on all available speed ratings for each individual plus other relevant information (injury, sickness, travel, racing style, training, etc), you "project" the speed rating for each runner assuming that runner runs a good race ... this is commonly done in horse racing ... I do use it at times for cross country.
The highest speed ratings for the NXN and Foot Locker runners considered in this article are available from my NXN Preview and Foot Locker Preview pages ... So I will use those numbers here to show the "quality" differences between NXN and Foot Locker 2016 ... Here are the average highest speed ratings for the top 35 runners entering each race:
| Highest Speed Rating | Highest Speed Rating | |
| Boys' Average | Girls' Average | |
| NXN | 193.6 | 150.3 |
| Foot Locker | 193.3 | 145.6 |
There is no significant statistical difference between the boys at NXN and Foot Locker in terms of speed "quality".
BUT the girls at NXN are 4.7 speed
rating points higher than Foot Locker ... or the top 35 girls at NXN are
14 seconds faster (on average) than the top 35 girls at Foot Locker ...
and that makes a significant difference
... it definitely comes into play for projected speed ratings.
Effect on the Girls Graph Above ... Since the girls at NXN are faster on average than the girls at Foot Locker, the graph above can not be compared directly for determining speed ratings for each race ... That 14 second faster average for the NXN girls lowers the red squares on the graph above, and that's the reason they come close to the Foot Locker girls ... As noted above, on average, the Foot Locker girls ran 3.6 seconds faster at Foot Locker than the NXN girls at NXN.
Rough approximation ... 14 seconds minus 3.6 seconds = 10.4 seconds ... The speed difference between the girls' races at NXN and Footlocker was roughly 10 seconds (meaning the course at Footlocker ran 10 seconds faster than the course at NXN) based on this single scenario for the girls.
My final total speed determination for the girls (based on several methods at each race) had the Footlocker course running 9 seconds faster for the girls at Footlocker than the girls at NXN.
Four girls ran both Foot Locker and
NXN ... They finished in the same order at both races (the boys were not as
orderly)
... The table below lists their finishing places, times and speed ratings at
both races ... The 9 second variation between races shows quite decently
for them.
| FL - Place, Time, Speed Rating | NXN - Place, Time, Speed Rating | ||||||||
| India Johnson | 4 | 17:45.4 | 149.87 | 150 | 9 | 17:53.6 | 150.13 | 150 | |
| Anne Forsyth | 5 | 17:46.0 | 149.67 | 150 | 14 | 17:58.6 | 148.47 | 148 | |
| Lauren Peterson | 25 | 18:08.8 | 142.07 | 142 | 30 | 18:24.6 | 139.80 | 140 | |
| Christina Geisler | 38 | 18:37.7 | 132.43 | 132 | 40 | 18:39.3 | 134.90 | 135 | |
Course Deterioration for the Boys at NXN Nationals
NXN was run at Glendoveer Golf Course for the third time in 2016 ... the NXN course ran slower in 2016 than the previous two years (easy to prove statistically) ... many runners and coaches talked about the soft and muddy conditions.
The girls ran before the boys at NXN 2016 ... It was evident from the web-cast that several sections of the course were getting "torn-up" somewhat as more and more runners raced those areas ... The course looked deteriorated somewhat for the boys race, but only an evaluation of the final times can determine the extent of the deterioration (if any) ... If should also be noted that the Glendoveer course loops over several areas, so the girls were tearing up parts of the course for themselves (and the front groups of girls were messing up the course for girls behind them).
The speed "discrepancy" between the boys and girls at NXN (as described above & in the graphs) can partially be explained by the "quality" of girls at NXN ... perhaps 14 seconds of the discrepancy is explained by this ... the remainder may be explained by course deterioration ... This is supposition on my part, but I believe these factors are involved.
Seven boys ran both Foot Locker and NXN ... The table below lists their finishing places, times and speed ratings at both races.
| FL - Place, Time, Speed Rating | NXN - Place, Time, Speed Rating | ||||||||
| Reed Brown | 1 | 15:01.8 | 202.40 | 202 | 6 | 15:44.9 | 194.03 | 194 | |
| Seth Hirsch | 3 | 15:04.8 | 201.40 | 201 | 4 | 15:37.9 | 196.37 | 196 | |
| Alexander Maier | 5 | 15:10.3 | 199.57 | 200 | 5 | 15:38.8 | 196.07 | 196 | |
| Samuel Worley | 9 | 15:17.2 | 197.27 | 197 | 2 | 15:35.1 | 197.30 | 197 | |
| Dylan Jacobs | 11 | 15:21.0 | 196.00 | 196 | 19 | 16:00.1 | 188.97 | 189 | |
| Gabe Fendel | 12 | 15:23.1 | 195.30 | 195 | 28 | 16:10.0 | 185.67 | 186 | |
| Jack Aho | 18 | 15:35.6 | 191.13 | 191 | 17 | 15:58.6 | 189.47 | 189 | |
Three runners clearly ran better at Foot Locker (Reed Brown, Dylan Jacobs and Gabe Fendel) ... the higher speed ratings suggest most of them ran better at Foot Locker ... Actually, the higher speed ratings mean they ran faster on a relative basis.
I have explained this before ... Foot Locker is unique ... a small field of top elite runners on a course that typically has good conditions and weather that is good as well ... the top runners come to run fast, and they usually do ... There is no other high school cross country race like Foot Locker ... It is very common for the top finishers at Foot Locker to achieve their highest speed ratings.
Relative Basis ... Here is the boys' graph from above with some straight lines drawn that define two groups ... the runners from positions 15-35 parallel each other with a 22 second gap ... the faster group shows a widening gap with the Foot Locker guys getting faster relative to the NXN guys (same quality and some of the same guys) ... the gap at the left-Y-axis is 36 seconds ... this visually illustrates Foot Locker having a relative speed advantage over NXN (this is normal ... in my opinion, it is due to the nature of the race and where it is held compared to NXN).
Casey Clinger did have some separation from the other NXN guys ...Casey Clinger opened a commanding lead in the last part of the NXN race ... I thought he would win by more than 6.7 seconds ... I was told he had a 13-second lead over runner-up Sam Worley at one point, but some runners closed the gap approaching the finish ... His speed rating would have been around 202 had he maintained the gap he opened (but that's speculation).
Using the groups that parallel each
from the graph above, it can be approximated that the NXN course for the
boys ran 22 seconds slower than the Foot Locker course for the boys (direct
comparison due to equal quality) ... But NXN had an additional 160 boys in
the their race requiring evaluation ... After applying my other speed
determining methods, I came up with a speed variation of 19 to 20 seconds
... People who back-calculate my speed ratings have discovered I almost
always use a race adjustment that is a multiple of 3 (3 seconds = 1 speed
rating point
)
... My final speed ratings for Foot Locker have the NXN course running 18
seconds slower than the Foot Locker course for the boys ... IF anything, I
suppose the NXN ratings for the boys could be a point higher, but the
ratings posted are accurate.
Some General Information
Several viewers thought my Foot Locker ratings were too low compared to other years based on the final times of runners ... However, the Foot Locker course ran faster than normal in 2016 ... The Balboa Park course varies in speed more than most people realize ... I posted an article about this last year ("Footlocker at Balboa Park - Relative Speeds") ... The weather was ideal in 2016 ... and I suspect the footing and the mix of soil and grass (moisture content) was excellent as well based on the numbers ... For whatever reason, the course ran fast in 2016.
The girls' graph above shows that three girls separated themselves from everybody else ... Brie Oakley, Claudia Lane and Nevada Mareno ... That's what exceptional performances look like on a graph.
| Girls & Boys - Top 35 Finishers at Foot Locker & NXN Nationals 2016 |
FOOT LOCKER GIRLS National Finals 2016 PL NAME GR REGION STATE TIME Speed Rating 1 Claudia Lane 10 West CA 17:04.8 163.40 163 2 Nevada Mareno 12 South NC 17:08.3 162.23 162 3 Rebecca Story 11 South TN 17:35.4 153.20 153 4 India Johnson 12 Midwest OH 17:45.4 149.87 150 5 Anne Forsyth 11 Midwest MI 17:46.0 149.67 150 6 Kearan Nelson 12 West WA 17:48.5 148.83 149 7 Nicole Fegans 12 South GA 17:48.6 148.80 149 8 Hayley Jackson 12 Northeast MD 17:49.7 148.43 148 9 Grace Connolly 10 Northeast MA 17:50.0 148.33 148 10 Maria Coffin 12 Northeast MD 17:50.2 148.27 148 11 Jacqueline Gaughan 11 Northeast NH 17:50.6 148.13 148 12 Amanda Beach 12 South FL 17:53.9 147.03 147 13 Alyssa Aldridge 11 Northeast NJ 17:55.2 146.60 147 14 Olivia Theis 11 Midwest MI 17:55.4 146.53 147 15 Niamh Schumacher 12 South TN 17:57.3 145.90 146 16 Julia Heymach 12 South TX 17:58.6 145.47 145 17 Lindsey Payne 11 Midwest IL 17:58.6 145.47 145 18 Kate Hunter 12 West UT 17:58.9 145.37 145 19 Sara Musselman 12 West UT 18:00.7 144.77 145 20 Bailey Hertenstein 11 South FL 18:02.0 144.33 144 21 Abigail Green 11 Northeast MD 18:02.2 144.27 144 22 Sara Platek 12 South NC 18:03.1 143.97 144 23 Kyla Christopher-Moody 10 Midwest MI 18:04.1 143.63 144 24 Kayla Young 12 Midwest CO 18:04.7 143.43 143 25 Lauren Peterson 10 Midwest MN 18:08.8 142.07 142 26 Kiera Marshall 12 West CA 18:09.5 141.83 142 27 Heather Holt 11 South VA 18:14.3 140.23 140 28 Alexandra Beitia 12 West CA 18:16.9 139.37 139 29 Anna Marian Block 11 South GA 18:18.4 138.87 139 30 Julien Webster 12 Northeast MD 18:20.0 138.33 138 31 Jordan Oakes 12 West WA 18:20.0 138.33 138 32 Page Lester 11 Northeast DC 18:20.8 138.07 138 33 Katherine Thronson 11 West WA 18:22.2 137.60 138 34 Ava Strenge 12 Midwest MI 18:24.0 137.00 137 NXN GIRLS Nationals 2016 Pl Nane Gr Team Time Speed Rating 1 OAKLEY, BRIE SR SOUTHWEST-3 17:10.1 164.63 165 2 STRATTON, EMBER SO PORTLAND XC 17:38.2 155.27 155 3 GREGORY, LAUREN SR SOUTHWEST-1 17:39.8 154.73 155 4 GIBSON, ANNA SR NORTHWEST-1 17:40.9 154.37 154 5 CHMIEL, KELSEY SO NEW YORK-1 17:41.1 154.30 154 6 PING, GRACE 8 INDIV -- SW REGION 17:48.3 151.90 152 7 SCHADLER, ALLIE SR SOUTHWEST-5 17:48.6 151.80 152 8 LAWSON, JESSICA SR NEW YORK-3 17:50.4 151.20 151 9 JOHNSON, INDIA SR MIDWEST-3 17:53.6 150.13 150 10 LEE, KATHERINE JR NEW YORK-2 17:57.1 148.97 149 11 RICH, WHITNEY SR SOUTHWEST-4 17:58.1 148.63 149 12 CULBREATH, LONDON FR SOUTH-1 17:58.3 148.57 149 13 TUOHY, KATELYN FR NEW YORK-4 17:58.5 148.50 149 14 FORSYTH, ANNE JR MIDWEST-1 17:58.6 148.47 148 15 KELLER, ANNA SOPHIA SR MIDWEST-4 17:59.4 148.20 148 16 HALLADAY, LEXY FR NORTHWEST-2 18:00.3 147.90 148 17 MCCONNELL, QUINN SO SOUTHWEST-2 18:01.4 147.53 148 18 HART, KATELYNNE FR MIDWEST-2 18:01.5 147.50 148 19 SLEENHOF, ANNIKA JR SOUTHEAST-1 18:01.8 147.40 147 20 WALTERS, CLAIRE FR MANLIUS XC 18:05.7 146.10 146 21 VLADIC, TIAHNA SO NORTHWEST-5 18:05.9 146.03 146 22 FENSKE, ANNA 8 HEARTLAND-3 18:06.0 146.00 146 23 BORN, MOLLY JR HEARTLAND-2 18:06.6 145.80 146 24 OLIVERE, LYDIA JR SOUTHEAST-2 18:10.3 144.57 145 25 PEURIFOY, LAUREN SO CALIFORNIA-5 18:10.8 144.40 144 26 ENDSLEY, ASHTON SR SOUTH-2 18:14.4 143.20 143 27 VESTRI, AMANDA SR NEW YORK-5 18:17.0 142.33 142 28 MURPHY, GLENNIS SR CALIFORNIA-4 18:17.5 142.17 142 29 RYAN, SOPHIA JR MANLIUS XC 18:19.3 141.57 142 30 PETERSON, LAUREN SO HEARTLAND-4 18:24.6 139.80 140 31 SCHWARTZ, TYLER JR MIDWEST-5 18:25.2 139.60 140 32 VENTERS, EMILY SR HEARTLAND-5 18:26.9 139.03 139 33 MURPHY, Kate SR BURKE XC 18:27.9 138.70 139 34 WALDEN, CHEYENNE SR SOUTH-4 18:28.2 138.60 139 35 NOE, CAMILA JR BOZEMAN XC 18:29.2 138.27 138 |
FOOT LOCKER BOYS National Finals 2016 PL NAME GR REGION STATE TIME Speed Rating 1 Reed Brown 12 South TX 15:01.8 202.40 202 2 Finn Gessner 12 Midwest WI 15:04.4 201.53 202 3 Seth Hirsch 12 Midwest NE 15:04.8 201.40 201 4 Talon Hull 12 West UT 15:07.1 200.63 201 5 Alexander Maier 10 South TX 15:10.3 199.57 200 6 Noah Affolder 12 Northeast PA 15:10.3 199.57 200 7 Tibebu Proctor 12 West WA 15:10.5 199.50 200 8 Connor Lane 12 South NC 15:13.7 198.43 198 9 Samuel Worley 12 South TX 15:17.2 197.27 197 10 Callum Bolger 12 West CA 15:19.0 196.67 197 11 Dylan Jacobs 11 Midwest IL 15:21.0 196.00 196 12 Gabe Fendel 11 Midwest IN 15:23.1 195.30 195 13 Luis Grijalva 12 West CA 15:23.6 195.13 195 14 Noah Jacobs 12 Midwest MI 15:24.8 194.73 195 15 Jacob McLeod 11 South GA 15:26.8 194.07 194 16 Amir Ado 12 West WA 15:31.4 192.53 193 17 Mitchell Day 12 Midwest MI 15:32.0 192.33 192 18 Jack Aho 12 Midwest IL 15:35.6 191.13 191 19 Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau 11 West CA 15:36.3 190.90 191 20 Travis Feeny 12 West UT 15:37.3 190.57 191 21 Dalton Hengst 11 Northeast PA 15:37.6 190.47 190 22 Daniel Viegra 12 South TX 15:38.2 190.27 190 23 Brian Griffith 12 Midwest IL 15:38.5 190.17 190 24 Waleed Suliman 12 South VA 15:39.5 189.83 190 25 Matthew Pereira 12 Midwest IL 15:40.5 189.50 190 26 Matt Grossman 12 Northeast NJ 15:41.1 189.30 189 27 Joshua Schumacher 11 West OR 15:42.1 188.97 189 28 Zachary Skolnekovich 12 Northeast PA 15:45.6 187.80 188 29 Matthew Watkins 12 West WA 15:45.6 187.80 188 30 Price Owens 11 South VA 15:46.2 187.60 188 31 Elliot Gindi 12 Northeast NJ 15:46.7 187.43 187 32 Matt Aho 12 Midwest IL 15:49.2 186.60 187 33 William Merritt 12 Northeast MD 15:49.9 186.37 186 34 Graydon Morris 9 South TX 15:51.2 185.93 186 35 Andrew Thompson 11 Northeast CT 15:52.2 185.60 186 NXN BOYS Nationals 2016 Pl Name Gr Team Time Speed Rating 1 CLINGER, CASEY SR AMERICAN FORK XC 15:28.4 199.53 200 2 WORLEY, SAM SR SOUTH-1 15:35.1 197.30 197 3 HASTY, BRODEY JR BRENTWOOD 15:37.1 196.63 197 4 HIRSCH, SETH SR HEARTLAND-5 15:37.9 196.37 196 5 MAIER, ALEX SO SOUTH-3 15:38.8 196.07 196 6 BROWN, REED SR CARROLL XC 15:44.9 194.03 194 7 BENSON, JOE SR SOUTHWEST-1 15:45.2 193.93 194 8 NORMAN, TANNER SR SOUTHWEST-4 15:46.3 193.57 194 9 JOHNS, McKAY SR AMERICAN FORK XC 15:46.9 193.37 193 10 BERNAL, DANIEL SR SOUTH-2 15:47.3 193.23 193 11 OLIVO-QUINONES, MANNY SR SOUTHWEST-5 15:48.4 192.87 193 12 SCHULZ, STEVE SR LIVERPOOL 15:49.4 192.53 193 13 KILREA, DANNY JR MIDWEST-5 15:50.5 192.17 192 14 BROWNLOW, TY SR LIVERPOOL 15:55.9 190.37 190 15 MILEY, ALEX SR HEARTLAND-4 15:56.1 190.30 190 16 TEARE, COOPER SR CALIFORNIA-2 15:58.0 189.67 190 17 AHO, JACK SR MIDWEST-1 15:58.6 189.47 189 18 MWAURA, JAMES JR NORTHWEST-4 15:59.3 189.23 189 19 JACOBS, DYLAN JR MIDWEST-4 16:00.1 188.97 189 20 PARKER, PATRICK SR AMERICAN FORK XC 16:01.0 188.67 189 21 PRINCIPE, DJ SR NORTHEAST-1 16:01.5 188.50 189 22 ANDERSON, LIAM SO CALIFORNIA-4 16:02.9 188.03 188 23 VERNAU, MICHAEL SR CALIFORNIA-1 16:04.3 187.57 188 24 O'NEILL, CONNOR SR SOUTH-5 16:05.0 187.33 187 25 BRANNAN, JORDAN SR NORTHEAST-2 16:06.6 186.80 187 26 EQUALL, CHASE SR BOZEMAN 16:08.4 186.20 186 27 QUIGLEY, BRYCE SR PARK XC 16:09.3 185.90 186 28 FENDEL, GABE JR MIDWEST-2 16:10.0 185.67 186 29 HUSSEIN, KHALID JR WAYZATA XC 16:10.3 185.57 186 30 HORTER, DUSTIN JR MIDWEST-3 16:11.3 185.23 185 31 SILVA, EVERT SR CALIFORNIA-5 16:11.3 185.23 185 32 GREDER, MILO SR HEARTLAND-3 16:12.0 185.00 185 33 TODD, CAMREN SR DAVIS/UT XC 16:12.2 184.93 185 34 VARGHESE, Ben SR SOUTHEAST-1 16:13.1 184.63 185 35 MONROE, ANDREW JR NORTHWEST-3 16:14.1 184.30 184 |