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Footlocker at Balboa Park - Relative Speeds
by
Bill Meylan (TullyRunners
... December 27, 2015)
Interest in course records is
apparent amongst runners, fans and media articles during the cross
country season. There was "buzz" entering Footlocker 2015
concerning Andrew Hunter's chances of breaking the Balboa Park record
set by Reuben Reina in 1985. That record had persisted for 30 years
despite the efforts of top elite talent from around the nation.
Questions were raised when I began
posting historical speed ratings for Footlocker and Reuben Reina's
course record did not have not have the top speed rating at Balboa Park
... Actually, a number of runners at Balboa have higher speed ratings
than the course record ... The top historical speed ratings at
Footlocker Nationals (for both Balboa Park and Orlando, FL) are
available from "Footlocker
Finals - Speed Rating History- Best since 1982".
Location & History of
Footlocker ... The Foot Locker Cross Country Championships were
formerly known as the Kinney Cross Country Championships until it
changed names in 1993 ... The Kinney Championship began in 1979 and was
run at Balboa Park in San Diego, CA ... At the first race in 1979,
competitors wore their own uniforms ... Regional races were scattered
over the calendar: Houston and New York (October), Chicago (November)
and San Francisco and Atlanta (December) ... But it started a
traditional that continues to present day ... For the first two years of
Kinney, 35 runners from five regions qualified for the boys and girls
races (regional sites were New York, Georgia, Texas, Kansas and
California) ... Additional history (plus results) are available at:
http://www.footlockercc.com/history/history.html
Footlocker-Kinney ran at Balboa Park
in 1979 and 1980 ... It switched to Orlando, FL in 1981 and 1982 ... It
returned to Balboa Park in 1983 through 1996 ... Footlocker ran in
Orlando, FL from 1997 to 2001 ... It returned to Balboa Park in 2002 to
present day (2015).
Speed Rating Years at Balboa
... I found some "questions" regarding changes at the Balboa course from
1979-1980 to the return in 1983 ... By 1983, the regional qualifying
process had been established ... The "event" was becoming known
nation-wide and top runners were competing ... So evaluating Footlocker
at Balboa Park from 1983 to present is the focus of this article.
The raw data used for the graphs at
statistics presented in this article are available from "Footlocker
at Balboa Park 1983 to 2015 (results with speed ratings)" ... This
includes raw data for both boys & girls.
Fastest Footlocker Boys at Balboa Park ... Sorting the raw
data yields the following top 42 race times at Footlocker Balboa since
1983 ... Some years there decimal fractions to the race times and other
years list only the "whole second" race times ... when I found different
results with both, I noticed sometimes the whole seconds were rounded
up, but truncated at other times (doesn't really matter this for
article) ... Side-Note: I got one timing company mad at me
when I asked "Why do you post XC times without the decimal fraction?
Is it because that's the best accuracy you have?"
... In future years, knowing the "tenth-of-a-second" shows who-beat-who.
Boys Fastest Footlocker Times between 1983 and 2015 at Balboa Park
Name Gr Region St Time Year Speed Rating
1 Reuben Reina 12 SO TX 14:36.8 1985 ** 208.7 209
2 Marc Davis 12 W CA 14:38.1 1986 211.3 211
3 Chris Solinsky 12 Midwest WI 14:40.5 2002 212.5 212
4 Mark Mastalir 12 W CA 14:41.3 1985 ** 207.2 207
5 Adam Goucher 12 MW CO 14:41.7 1993 213.1 213
6 Todd William 12 MW MI 14:49.8 1986 207.4 207
7 Bryan Dameworth 12 W CA 14:49.9 1989 209.4 209
8 Michael Fout 12 MW IN 14:50 2007 210.3 210
9 Scott Fry 12 MW OH 14:50.0 1984 209.3 209
10 Mark Dani 12 W CA 14:50.9 1985 ** 204.0 204
11 Jonathan Hume 12 MW CO 14:51.4 1985 ** 203.9 204
12 Edward Cheserek 11 NE NJ 14:51.5 2011 209.8 210
13 Futsum Zeinasellassie 12 MW IN 14:52.1 2011 209.6 210
14 Robert Henes 12 MW OH 14:52.6 1985 ** 203.5 203
15 MebrahtorM Keflezighi 12 W CA 14:53.0 1993 209.3 209
16 Troy Maddux 12 MW IL 14:53.2 1985 ** 203.3 203
17 Jon Hatley 12 MW MO 14:53.3 1985 ** 203.2 203
18 Matt Giusto 12 W CA 14:54.1 1983 206.0 206
19 Marc Davis 11 W CA 14:54.4 1985 ** 202.9 203
20 Matthew Withrow 12 Midwest IL 14:55 2003 207.7 208
21 Drew Hunter 12 South VA 14:55.7 2015 206.4 206
22 Eric Mastalir 12 W CA 14:56.4 1985 ** 202.2 202
23T Galen Rupp 12 West OR 14:57 2003 207.0 207
23T Christopher Derrick 12 MW IL 14:57 2007 208.0 208
25 Shadrack Kiptoo 12 West NM 14:58 2003 206.7 207
26 Matt Downin 12 NE NH 14:58.3 1994 206.6 207
27 Lukas Verzbicas 12 MW IL 14:59 2010 207.3 207
28 Robert Kennedy 12 MW OH 14:59.0 1987 206.3 206
29 Edward Cheserek 12 NE NJ 14:59.3 2012 206.9 207
30 Andrew Maris 12 W WA 15:00.9 1989 205.7 206
31 Joshua McDougal 12 Northeast NY 15:01 2003 205.7 206
32 Wesley Smith 12 Midwest OH 15:01.0 2002 205.7 206
33T Benjamin True 12 Northeast ME 15:02 2003 205.3 205
33T Michael Coe 12 WE CA 15:02 2005 207.0 207
33T AJ Acosta 12 WE CA 15:02 2005 207.0 207
36 Grant Fisher 12 MW MI 15:02.1 2014 205.3 205
37 John Mortimer 12 NE NH 15:03.1 1994 205.0 205
38T Glenn Morgan 12 W NM 15:03.3 1985 ** 199.9 200
38T Brian Grosso 12 MW MI 15:03.3 1988 204.9 205
40 Corey Ihmels 12 MW ND 15:03.6 1991 207.8 208
41 Eric Henry 12 SO TX 15:03.9 1985 ** 199.7 200
42 John Long 12 MW MN 15:04.4 1985 ** 199.5 200
Footlocker 1980 at Balboa - Same Course?? Unclear
-- Jay Marden W CA 14:53 1980
-- Jon Butler W CA 14:57 1980
-- Marty Beauchamp NE NY 15:00 1980
-- Timothy Hacker MW WI 15:03 1980
-- Tom Ansberry W AZ 15:04 1980
|
Since 1983, 977 boys have started and
finished the Footlocker race at Balboa Park ... As can be seen above, 9
of the top 22 race times occurred in 1985 (the year Reuben Reini set the
current course record) ... That raises red flags with respect to
the consistency of speed of the course over a period of years
... Obviously, Balboa ran exceptionally fast in 1985 ... It happens at
other courses as well ... The speed rating process evaluates and adjusts
accordingly ... It's not that big a deal to me
... But it does matter to people who place extra importance on course
records and the historical evaluation of the runner who set the course
record.
Some Graphical Depictions
... Similar to my Amber Trotter
Speed Rating article, I will use some graphs to illustrate the
relative speed of some Footlocker races in different years (and a final
graph at the very bottom which sums it up nicely).
I will start by comparing 1985 to
2002, 2003 and 2004 ... Footlocker returned to Balboa in 2002 after 5
years In Orlando, FL ... I selected 2002 and 2003 because they fall near
the average-median speed of Footlocker Balboa and they pre-date the NXN
National race ... I selected 2004 because it had the slowest
relative speed of all Footlocker Balboa races (along with 1996).
Why Slow in 2004 ... A horse
racing acquaintance who was at Footlocker 2004 characterized the course
condition as "good", but not fast because it was wet and soft in enough
areas ... He was also told about some tree damage problems which cause
some minor re-routing that may have added a small amount of extra
distance ... The Footlocker web-site said it was unseasonable warm for
the girl's races ... A girl who ran in both 2003 and 2004 (Kate Niehaus)
noted "Although last year (2003) it had been warmer in San Diego than in
Columbia, South Carolina, this year (2004) it was a lot warmer, and the
course was muddier" (http://sc.milesplit.com/articles/4372).
Reasons why a course runs fast or
slow can be interesting, but I completely ignore all of that when
speed rating a race ... The comparison of final times determines my
evaluation ... The comparative graph below shows the slowness of the
2004 boy's race that was won by Kenneth Cormier over Andrew Bumbalough
and other top runners (15:22 slowest winning boy's time ever) ...
Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley HS, NY) won the girl's race in 17:31,
but had a speed rating of 168 (only 5 girls broke 18:00 in 2004 ...
Jenny Barringer Simpson finished 10th in 18:16).
The graph illustrates the relative
speed comparison very nicely ... The Balboa Park course ran much faster
in 1985 compared to 2002 and 2003 ... a quick visual comparison shows 15
to 20 seconds faster in 1985.
As noted above, 9 of the top 22 race
times at Balboa Park occurred in 1985 ... The people questioning my
speed rating for Reuben Reina in 1985 have offered the explanation that
the top 9 guys in 1985 were simply superior runners that had great
performances on that particular day ... That explanation has a couple of
problems with respect to speed rating.
First problem ... Finishers #10
through #26 in 1985 match-up consistently faster than the corresponding
runners in 2002-2004 ... Therefore, the explanation needs to be extended
to say "The entire field in 1985 is at least 15-20 seconds superior in
quality to the runners in the years shown above" ... Highly Unlikely
with the same qualifying procedure and national pool of runners.
Second problem ... There were two
races that day in 1985 ... Girls also raced ... Graphs of the Girl's
race also show the Balboa course running significantly faster for the
Girls in 1985 (example graph shown on the
Extra Data & Graphs web-page).
Bottom-Line ... The
Balboa course simply ran faster in 1985 than in other Footlocker years
... The reason does not matter for my speed rating purposes ...
The weather could have been perfect, the running surface superior to
other years, or maybe the runners ran through a time vortex.
Balboa ran noticeably slower in
2002 compared to 1985 ... Yet Chris Solinsky (2002) was only 3.7
seconds slower than Reuben Reina in 1985 ... That's why Chris
Solinsky's speed rating (212.5) is higher than Reuben Reina
(208.7).
Looking at Years 1983-1987
... Checking the time-frame around 1985 to see if the other years were
nearly as fast as 1985 ... The graph plots the races two years before
and two years after 1985 for comparison to 1985 ... Again for
whatever reason, 1985 was significantly faster than 1983, 1984, 1986 and
1987 ... An explanation that the entire field in 1985 was significantly
superior in quality to the other years does not fly for the same reasons as
noted above.
Marc Davis (1986) has a higher speed rating
than Reuben Reina because speed ratings adjust for the relative
speed of each race.
Quality of Races ... This is an
important consideration in speed rating and direct comparison of races
... In general, if races have the same qualifying procedures,
time-frames, pool of runners and number of competitors, then direct
comparison becomes possible (this applies to Footlocker, State
Championship meets, NXN, etc.) ..... Quality can vary from year-to-year,
especially at the top-end with super-talented runners, and that's why
speed rating evaluates the whole field and selects appropriate "groups"
of runners for the determination ... Having data on individual runners
entering the race allows adjustment of seasonal-yearly variations of
quality (data such as speed ratings at qualifying races, State Meets,
etc).
The relative speeds at Footlocker - Balboa Park have
varied from fast (1985) to slow (2004, 1996) with a variation on the order of
40+ seconds based on group comparisons ... However, most races fall in a middle section with some
consistency at times (see the graph below which "might" convince
some viewers that Footlocker 1985 was questionably fast).
In the 28 races of Footlocker at Balboa ...The
average winning time for the boys is 15:00 (whole number) ... The
average winning time for the girls is 17:11 (whole number).
Note -
Extra Data & Graphs web-page has a table and graphs concerning
the Footlocker girls at Balboa.
The graph below ... I plotted all 28
boy's Footlocker Balboa races on the same graph ... A statistician
might consider 1985 as an outlier.
