Foot Locker Speed Rating Preview 2016

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Foot Locker 2016 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating for betting purposes
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Foot Locker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... Other Ratings - other selected speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

General Comment ... I suspect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be higher than those shown in table above (that's typically the case) ... To finish in top places at Foot Locker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (season-best performances).

Nine of eleven underclassmen from last year's Foot Locker return this year ... The returning runners include (with their finishes last year): Seth Hirsch (9th), Finn Gessner (11th), Noah Affolder (15th), Reed Brown (16th), Matthew Perriera (24th), Tibebu Proctor (28th), Waleed Suliman (29th), Matt Grossman (35th) and Talon Hull (37th) ... [Link to 2015 results]

Seven runners competed at NXN Nationals 2016 ... Sam Worley (2nd), Seth Hirsch (4th), Alex Maier (5th), Reed Brown (6th), Jack Aho (17th), Dylan Jacobs (19th) and Gabe Fendel (28th) ... So 4 of the top 6 finishers at NXN are at Foot Locker.

Based on the speed ratings, as many as 10 guys have a legitimate shot at winning this race depending on who's feeling good ... and that makes the race competitive and interesting.

Selected Individual Runners

Finn Gessner ... Qualified for NXN Nationals by winning the NXN Heartland Regional with a 199 speed rating ... Decided to skip NXN and concentrate on a top performance at Foot Locker ... an extra week of rest over the guys who did run NXN may be an advantage.

Sam Worley ... Has run exceptionally well during the entire 2016 XC season ... Won both the Foot Locker South and NXN South Regionals ... Has good closing speed ... Finished 2nd at NXN Nationals.

Seth Hirsch ... The top returning runner from Foot Locker 2015 ... Finished 4th at NXN Nationals ... Along with Finn Gessner, Seth Hirsch has a best individual speed rating of 199 which is tops in the field.

Noah Affolder ... The Foot Locker Northeast winner ... Finished 15th at Foot Locker 2015 ... A real threat to win this race.

Luis Grijalva ... The California State champion ... Possibly ran Foot Locker West only fast enough to qualify ... A real threat to win this race.

Talon Hull ... The Foot Locker West winner ... Finished 37th at Foot Locker 2015

Alexander Maier ... An exceptionally talented sophomore who has been competitive with top runners all season ... Finished 5th at NXN Nationals

Dylan Jacobs ... The Foot Locker Midwest winner ... Finished 19th at NXN Nationals

Reed Brown ... Finished 6th at NXN Nationals ... Finished 16th at Foot Locker 2015

126 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
130 - NXN Northwest Region
130 - Richland Invitational WA

General Comment ... A good field of competitors ... Claudia Lane is the favorite based on excellent seasonal performances ... Nevada Mareno finished 3rd at Foot Locker last year and is expected to be a serious contender for the win.

Seven underclassmen return this year from last year's Foot Locker ... The returning  runners are Nevada Mareno (3rd last year), Jordan Oakes (20th last year), Alyssa Aldrich (23rd last year), Maria Coffin (27th last year), Kate Hunter (31st last year), Kayla Young (33rd last year) and Julia Heymach (36th last year)  ... [Link to 2015 results]

Four runners competed at NXN Nationals 2016 ... India Johnson (9th), Anne Forsyth (14th), Lauren Peterson (30th) and Christina Geisler (40th).

Selected Individual Runners

Claudia Lane ... The Foot Locker West winner and top runner in California ... Has been improving throughout the season ... Popped 158 speed ratings at both Foot Locker West and the California State Meet (3rd fastest time ever at Woodward Park behind only Sarah Baxter and Julia Stamps).

Claudia Lane did race NXN Champion Brie Oakley at the Woodbridge Classic (Sept 17th) with Oakley winning by 23 seconds (153 and 145 speed ratings respectively) ... Both girls have shown improvement since that race nearly two-and-a-half months ago ... It would obviously be interesting to see them race now, but that's not going to happen.

Nevada Mareno ... The top returning runner from last year's Foot Locker where Nevada Mareno finished 3rd with a 160 speed rating ... Entering Foot Locker last year, she had a best speed rating of 157 when she broke the course record at WakeMed (the course used for NXN Southeast and the Great American Festival) ... Nevada Mareno ran a somewhat limited XC schedule this year and has not really been tested competitively ... she won Foot Locker South handily ... I'm guessing she can run significantly faster than this year's speed ratings ... I will not be surprised if she wins.

Alyssa Aldridge ... The Foot Locker Northeast winner ... Ran 153 speed ratings at both Foot Locker Northeast and the New Jersey Meet of Champions ... Finished 23rd at last year's Foot Locker.

Anne Forsyth ... The Foot Locker Midwest winner ... Finished 14th at NXN Nationals after taking 3rd at NXN Midwest.

India Johnson ... Finished 2nd at both Foot Locker Midwest and NXN Midwest ... Finished 9th at NXN Nationals.