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Pre-Race Comments
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All twelve years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line.
The Boys Race at NXN Nationals 2016
looks very competitive ... Nearly half the field has a legitimate
shot at making the podium ... I can see nine teams as possible
winners ... A few have better probabilities of winning than
others, but the race needs to be run and you never know! ... Neuqua
Valley, American Fork, Great Oak and Brentwood
have virtually identical probabilities of winning.
NXN Nationals is a special race because
all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this
race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish
at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish
that bad"
... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses
are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish
last than who will finish first.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Neuqua Valley
IL
... Neuqua Valley gets placed at the #1 position above for
several reasons ... Neuqua Valley has the best team score in a
merge of all NXN regional races, and I picked Neuqua Valley as
the NXN winner in the pre-season ... Neuqua Valley goes 7-deep in
team scoring with an excellent team-spread at a high performance level
... Neuqua Valley won NXN in 2007 when NXN was still known as NTN
(top runner Chris Derrick was also the winning individual) ... Neuqua
Valley will be difficult to beat if they can duplicate their NXR
Midwest performance ... But other teams here have shown an ability to
equal (and maybe exceed) that performance level.
American Fork
UT ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN last
year, 5th in 2014, 7th in 2013
and 2nd in 2012 ... American Fork has one of the best cross
country programs in the nation ... They are consistently good and have a
real shot at winning this year ... American Fork has outstanding
strength at the top end with their top three runners projection to
finish in the top 10 of all team runners ... that is remarkably helpful
in team scoring of a race having a 22-team limit ... The question
becomes "How many runners from other teams can be placed in between
American Fork's 3rd, 4th and 5th scorers?" ... Good seasonal
performances by American Fork's 4th and 5th scorers could easily
spell victory for American Fork ... I gave Neuqua Valley a
small advantage here (and in the pre-season) over American Fork
due to being 7 runners deep ... Not considering depth makes American Fork
a slight favorite, and American Fork was the top team based on
State Meet speed ratings.
Great Oak CA
... Great Oak is the defending NXN champion ... Great Oak had
a season-best performance at the
California State Meet ... Great Oak has been improving
throughout the season and are now a real threat to repeat as the NXN
champion ... Great Oak has proven they can run well at Glendoveer Golf
Course ... I think Great Oak has a real chance of winning this
race.
Note ... I used CA State Meet as California's NXN
regional race and the SS-Finals for their "State" meet ratings above -
This is an advantage for California teams (in terms of high speed
ratings at regionals) because the CA State Meet is an in-season meet at a
familiar location
that most CA teams "focus-on" and go all-out to perform
..... Not all, but many teams coming to NXN from around the country have
higher speed ratings at their State meets compared to their NXN regional
meets ... some are not allowed to have their school coaches
out-of-season ... many have to travel out-of-state and run on unfamiliar
courses.
Brentwood TN ...
Brentwood is very strong at the top end (similar to American Fork)
... Brentwood is the 2nd-best scoring team based on NXR regional
speed ratings and 3rd-best based on State meet speed ratings (behind Neuqua
Valley based on a 6th-man tie-break) ... Similar caveat applies to Brentwood
as to American Fork - How many runners will fit between 4th and
5th scorers?
Bozeman MT ...
Bozeman finished a very good 8th at NXN last year and they appear
to be stronger this year.
The Woodlands
TX
... Similar to last year, The Woodlands had a good performance at the Texas
State Meet (4th-best best among all NXN teams on speed ratings shown
above) ... The Woodlands was not nearly as good
at the NXN South regional ... Top runner (William Hunsdale) did not
compete at NXR South, but he did run at Footlocker South the following
week, so I included him in my team projections above (significant
difference without him) ... The Woodlands finished a very good
6th last year at NXN, and could equal or exceed that with a good team
performance here ... The Woodlands is the top-projected At-Large
team.
Christian
Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers Academy (CBA)
is a many time competitor at NXN ... CBA-NJ finished 20th NXN last
year, 11th in 2014, 2nd in 2013, 4th in 2012 and CBA won NXN in 2011 ...
CBA is a serious threat if all five scorers can perform well on
the same day.
Downers Grove
North
... Downers Grove North performed very nicely at both NXR Midwest
and the Illinois State Meet ... Similar high level performance at NXN
makes them a serious podium contender.
Wayzata MN
... Wayzata finished 14th at NXN last year, and Wayzata
has better depth this season ... Wayzata is a podium threat.
Dana Hills CA
... Dana Hills finished 3rd at NXN last year, so Dana Hills
runs well at Glendoveer Golf Course.
Liverpool NY
... Liverpool finished 10th at NXN last year, 4th in 2014 and 20th in 2013
... Liverpool is another team that is very strong at the top end
... three runners are projected to finish in the top 20 of all team
runners.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ...
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to
NXN the last nine years! ... Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN
2014 ... Only six guys competed at NXR New York (one runner was
hospitalized with a medical issue).
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2016 by approximate best speed rating ...
Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
David Principe Jr (La Salle Acad)
broke the Bowdoin Park course record at NXR New York and got the highest
speed rating in US thus far this season (202) ... he also has
ratings of 199 and 198 to his credit, but in one of those races (Great
American Festival), he was beaten by Brodey Hasty (Brentwood).
Casey Clinger (American Fork) is
the defending champion from NXN 2015, and he has run exceptionally well
this season ... I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat
Casey Clinger in this race ... but this race has a bunch of
runners capable of an exceptional performance.
Finn Gessner and Seth Hirsch
popped 199 ratings at NXR Heartland ... Brodey Hasty,
Finn Gessner and Seth Hirsch finished 7th, 8th and 9th
respectively at NXN last year (they were the top underclassmen behind
Casey Clinger last year).
Should be a good & interesting race.
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