National Pre-Season XC 2019
GIRLS Teams - National 2019
Bill Meylan (July 26, 2019)
- Girls - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2018 XC season into 2019
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2019 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2019
... Note - Scores have been modified to reflect NXN scoring - Previous scores included extra teams (July 29, 2019)
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Summit OR 150 Northwest
2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 230 New York
3 Wayzata MN 231 Heartland
4 Naperville North IL 300 Midwest
5 Mountain Vista CO 301 Southwest
6 Great Oak CA 305 California
7 Yorkville IL 310 Midwest
8 North Central WA 350 Northwest
9 Edina MN 360 Heartland
10 Beavercreek OH 361 Midwest
11 Downers Grove South IL 380 Midwest
12 Niwot CO 395 Southwest
13 Vista Murrieta CA 400 California
14 Saugus CA 401 California
15 Saratoga Springs NY 410 New York
16 Bozeman MT 420 Northwest
17 Saint Michael-Albertville MN 425 Heartland
18 Lone Peak UT 430 Southwest
19 Ann Arbor Pioneer MI 450 Midwest
20 Muskego WI 455 Heartland
21 Stillwater MN 460 Heartland
22 Desert Vista ** AZ 465 Southwest (replaces Winona Cotter)
23 Claremont CA 470 California
24 Serrano-SS CA 480 California
25 Cherry Creek CO 490 Southwest
26 Boise Senior ID 491 Northwest
27 Prosper TX 500 South
28 St Francis (Sac)-SJS CA 501 California
29 Canyon/Anaheim-SS CA 510 California
30* North Allegheny PA 520 Northeast
30* Bolles FL 520 Southeast
* added above (from below) for team
regional representation from each region
** Transfer of the Ping sisters to Desert
Vista (fits closely to where Winona Cotter
was originally with the Ping sisters).
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Battle Mountain CO Southwest
East Grand Rapids MI Midwest
Zionsville Community IN Midwest
Traverse City Central MI Midwest
Eagle ID Northwest
Carmel IN Midwest
Austin Vandegrift TX South
Farmington MN Heartland
Batavia IL Midwest
North Rockland NY New York
Liverpool NY New York
Cuthbertson NC Southeast
Auburn AL Southeast
Flower Mound TX South
Bridgeland TX South
Wheaton Warrenville South IL Midwest
North Hunterdon NJ Northeast
Southlake Carroll TX South
Lakota East OH Midwest
Centerville OH Midwest
Loudoun Valley VA Southeast
Fort Wayne Carroll IN Midwest
Mason OH Midwest
Minooka IL Midwest
Greenwich NY New York
Shenendehowa NY New York
Ridgewood NJ Northeast
Belvidere North IL Midwest
Pine Crest FL Southeast
Eden Prairie MN Heartland
Johnston IA Heartland
Lyons Township IL Midwest
Holmdel NJ Northeast
Jesuit OR Northwest
Cherokee Trail CO Southwest
Minster OH Midwest
Onalaska WI Heartland
Mountain View ID Northwest
Champlain Valley VT Northeast
Blacksburg VA Southeast
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2018 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2018 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2018, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 11 of the top 15 teams at NXN 2018 were ranked in my pre-season top 16 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 14 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 8 of the top 15 teams above finished in the top 8 at NXN Nationals last year
- The top three teams (Summit, Fayetteville-Manlius and Wayzata) are the only teams who have won NXN Nationals since 2006 (FM winning all but two).
- Major switching of teams #8 through #30 is very possible.
#1 - Summit OR ... Summit is the defending NXN champion ... Summit won NXN 2018 by 66 points over Naperville North ... I under-estimated Summit last year not realizing a top runner from Jesuit had transferred to Summit ... Most importantly - Summit returns their entire team of runners from NXN Nationals & NXN Northwest ... The excellent returning speed ratings from NXN Nationals are 150, 140, 134, 130, 126 and 117 (top runner Fiona Max is profiled at #15 in the Top Individual Runner Profiles) ... Summit is the obvious pre-season favorite based on returning numbers and team depth.
#2 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY
... FM has been the
NXN
champion in 11 of the last 13 years ... Last year, FM
possibly over-achieved a bit in finishing 4th at NXN Nationals only 5
points behind Wayzata and 26 points behind Naperville North
... This year my numbers have FM and Wayzata virtually
even-up at the #2 spot ... I decided to go with
Fayetteville-Manlius because of strength at the top end which has
importance at NXN Nationals ... FM returns their top 4 finishers
from NXN and their #6 finisher ... FM's returning speed
ratings from NXN Nationals are 156, 135, 126, 123 and 108 (and some
those numbers may improve this year) ... Improvement at the #5 position
could make FM competitive with Summit for the top spot
... Additional data on FM is available at the
NY Pre-Season Team Rankings.
#3 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year and 7th the year before ... Importantly, all seven NXN runners return ... Returning NXN National speed ratings are 134, 131, 129, 125, 121, 114 and 108 ... Wayzata won NXN Nationals in 2013 and were the NXR Heartland winners the last two years ... Wayzata is a top contender for a podium position.
#4 - Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished an outstanding 2nd at NXN Nationals last year and the year before ... they were 10th in 2016, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Multiple appearances at NXN Nationals is a big plus ... Naperville North graduated their top 3 runners from NXN Nationals including top runner Alex Morris (7th at NXN and 15th Foot Locker Nationals) ... Despite the major graduation losses, Naperville North has returning speed ratings of about 130, 126, 124, 124, 114 and 114 ... and combined with excellence in post-season racing gets them highly ranked in the pre-season.
#5 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year and 6th the year before ... Mountain Vista won the NXR Southwest Regional last year by 47 points, but did not have their best team race at NXN Nationals ... they return 4 of their top 5 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 136,132, 131, 118, 112 and 109.
#6 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 8th at NXN last year, 8th in 2017, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak returns 6 of 7 from NXN (losing only their #2 finisher) ... Returning is top runner Tori Gaitan (#22 in the Top Individual Runner Profiles) ... Great Oak has excellent depth and gets credit for that ... Returning speed ratings are about 147, 135, 125, 121, 109 and 103.
#7 - Yorkville IL ... Yorkville finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year and 18th the year before ... they finished 2nd at NXR Midwest (lost to Naperville North by 15 points) ... Yorkville returns 5 of 7 runners from NXN (but lose 1 of their top 2 runners from NXN) ... They did not have their best team race at NXN Nationals ... Returning speed ratings are about 136, 135, 126, 116 and 115.
#8 - North Central WA ... North Central did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at the NXR Northwest Regional ... North Central was the Washington State 3A champion last year and return all runners from States and NXR ... Returning is top runner Allie Janke (#31 in the Top Individual Runner Profiles) ... Returning speed ratings are about 144, 128, 122, 119, 114 and 106.
#9 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year, 11th in 2017 and 12th in 2016 ... Edina was 2nd to Wayzata at the NXR Heartland Regional (losing by only 8 points) ... Edina returns 5 of 7 from NXN, and Edina has been able to reload in recent years with a deep squad ... Returning speed ratings are about 130, 122, 120, 118, 115 and 104.
#10 - Beavercreek OH ... Beavercreek did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year, but they had a good reason ... they did not race at NXR Midwest because the Ohio State Meet was moved to the day before due to weather-related issues ... Top runner Taylor Ewert (#6 in the Top Individual Runner Profiles) did make the overnight journey to NXR Midwest, qualified and then finished 3rd at NXN Nationals ... Beavercreek won the Ohio State D1 title ... the top 4 finishers from States return ... Returning speed ratings are about 157, 128, 124, 124 and 99.
#11 - Downers Grove South IL ... Downers Grove South did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at the NXR Midwest Regional (but were not selected as an NXN "At-Large" team) ... Downers Grove South finished 3rd to Naperville North and Yorkville at both the Illinois State Meet and NXR, so they competed nicely in tough competition ... They return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 137, 123, 120, 120, 109 and 103.
#12 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 5th at NXN Nationals ... They finished 3rd at NXR Southwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team ... Their race at NXN Nationals was probably their best team race of the season (and that deserves credit) ... Niwot returns 4 of 7 runners from NXN including their top 2 ... Returning speed ratings are about 140, 131, 118, 117 and 100 (a guess on my part for #5).
#13 - Vista Murrieta CA
... Vista Murrieta finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year (best
finish by a California team) ... Vista Murrieta finished 3rd in
the California State Meet merge and were selected as an "At-Large" team
... Another team that deserves credit for an excellent team performance
at Nationals ... Vista Murrieta returns only 4 of 7 runners from
States and Nationals, but 3 of the top 4 return ... Returning speed ratings are about 138,
124, 123, 113 and 100-104 (a wild guess on my part for #5 ... But I need
to make guesses for this type of ranking).
#14 - Saugus CA ... Saugus did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year, but they have competed at NXN on a number occasions ... Saugus was 8th in the California State Meet merge last year ... Saugus returns 6 of 7 runners, including their top 4 from States ... Returning speed ratings are about 130,123,118,115,110 and 105.
#15 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is a perennial competitor at NXN ... They have competed at NXN Nationals in 13 of the 15 years that NXN has operated ... Last year Saratoga finished a very good 6th at NXN ... Saratoga loses their top runner to graduation (Kelsey Chmiel, the #1 team finisher at NXN), so that obviously hurts ... However, Saratoga returns a strong group of young runners that could perform very nicely ... Returning speed ratings are about 140, 123, 120, 113 and 108 ... Additional data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings.
#16 - Bozeman MT ... Bozeman did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 6th at the NXR Northwest Regional ... Bozeman returns 6 of 7 runners from NXR and Montana States including their top 5 ... Returning speed ratings are about 132, 125, 121,110, 107 and 105.
#17 - Saint Michael-Albertville MN ... Saint Michael-Albertville did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at the NXR Heartland Regional, but were not selected as an "At-Large" team ... Saint Michael-Albertville beat Wayzata at the Minnesota State AA race by 5 points ... They return 6 of 7 runners including their top 2 who were freshmen last year ... Returning speed ratings are about 133, 126, 119, 117, 103 and 99.
#18 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at NXR Southwest (2nd year in a row) ... Lone Peak returns 4 of 7 runners from NXR including their top 3 (the overall seasonal ratings including runners was a bit puzzling) ... I decided on returning speed ratings of 133,130, 124, 108, 105 and 105.
#19 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI ... Michigan teams have a problem with the State Association regarding permission of attending post season meets ... Ann Arbor Pioneer did have 5 girls compete at NXR Midwest, but they were not counted as a team ... The full Ann Arbor Pioneer team finished 2nd at the Michigan State D1 race where their top 4 finishers were underclassmen ... Returning speed ratings are about 140, 123, 119, 115 and 102 ... Top runner (Zofia Dudek, winner of the Brooks PR Mile) is profiled on the Top Individual Runner Profiles page (near the bottom).
#20 - Muskego WI ... Muskego did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at the NXR Heartland Regional (only 1 point behind Saint Michael-Albertville) ... Muskego returns 6 of 7 runners from NXR and States (they were the Wisconsin State D1 champions), but do lose one of the top two runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 130, 118, 118, 113, 108 and 106.