National Pre-Season XC 2019
BOYS Teams - National 2019
Bill Meylan (July 26, 2019)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2018 XC season into 2019
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2019 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2019
... Note - Scores have been modified to reflect NXN scoring - Previous scores included extra teams (July 29, 2019)
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Great Oak CA 200 California
2 Loudoun Valley VA 201 Southeast
3 Corner Canyon UT 220*** Southwest
4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 240 New York
5 Newbury Park CA 245 California
6 York IL 265 Midwest
7 The Woodlands TX 300 South
8 Dakota Ridge CO 340** Southwest
9 St. Charles East IL 345 Midwest
10 Tahoma Senior WA 350 Northwest
11 Wheaton Warrenville So IL 351 Midwest
12 Christian Brothers NJ 365 Northeast
13 El Paso Eastwood TX 375 South
14 Lewis And Clark WA 385 Northwest
15 Dublin CA 386 California
16 Clovis North-CS CA 390 California
17 La Salle Academy RI 391 Northeast
18 Southlake Carroll TX 395 South
19 Bishop Hendricken RI 400 Northeast
20 Jesuit OR 410 Northwest
21 Huntsville AL 420 Southeast
22 Davis UT UT 430 Southwest
23 Bellarmine-CCS CA 440 California
24 Hersey IL 450 Midwest
25 Middleton WI 455 Heartland
26 Mountain Vista CO 460 Southwest
27 Kamiakin WA 465 Northwest
28 Dana Hills CA 470 California
29 Oswego East IL 475 Midwest
30 Dowling Catholic IA 480 Heartland
** Heard that a top runner from Dakota Ridge
MAY be transferring to a school in the New York
to Connecticut area - Score would obviously change!
*** Aug 8 - Top runner (Easton Allred) has a stress fracture
in his foot and could be out for 3 weeks to 6 months.
Corner Canyon would drop 8 to 10 places without him.
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
Loyola-SS CA California
Flower Mound TX South
Camas WA Northwest
Belen Jesuit Prep FL Southeast
Highland High AZ Southwest
Western Albemarle VA Southeast
La Costa Canyon CA California
North Central WA Northwest
Cherokee NJ Northeast
Central Catholic OR Northwest
American Fork UT Southwest
Mounds View MN Heartland
Sandburg IL Midwest
El Toro-SS CA California
Saint Paul Highland Park MN Heartland
LaSalle College PA Northeast
Siegel TN Southeast
Haddonfield Memorial NJ Northeast
Carmel IN Midwest
Lone Peak UT Southwest
Westfield NJ Northeast
LaSalle College PA Northeast
Albemarle VA Southeast
Lexington MA Northeast
West Springfield VA Southeast
Fort Wayne Concordia Lut IN Midwest
Bozeman MT Northwest
Woodridge OH Midwest
Severna Park MD Southeast
Poway-SDS CA California
Germantown WI Heartland
Lucas Lovejoy TX South
W Windsor Plainsboro So NJ Northeast
Albuquerque Academy NM Southwest
Pleasant Valley IA Heartland
Satellite FL Southeast
Preston ID Northwest
Xavier NY New York
Mead Senior WA Northwest
North Allegheny PA Northeast
Eastview MN Heartland
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2018 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2018 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2018, I did not identify 7 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 7 of the top 14 teams at NXN 2018 were ranked in my pre-season top 10 teams ... 5 of the top 7 teams at NXN were ranked in my top 9 pre-season teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 15 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 4 of the top 5 teams above finished in the top 9 at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 3 of top 4 teams have won NXN in past 5 years
- Great Oak and Loudoun Valley are virtually even-up and Too Close to Call ... Corner Canyon is not far behind with Fayetteville-Manlius next.
#1 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year, 6th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 3 runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team, but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners.
The returning speed ratings that I used used project
scores for both Great Oak and Loudoun Valley were a bit
problematic when going 7 deep, so I "played" a bit with some ranges and
Monte Carlo analysis and it helped me guess
... After flipping a few coins and
looking at the overall numbers, Great Oak gets placed at the #1
position because the speed ratings give them an advantage ... Great
Oak lost 3 runners to graduation while Loudoun Valley lost 4
runners ... The returning speed ratings from NXN Nationals were
186, 185, 180 and 174 for Great Oak and 189, 185 and 156 for
Loudoun Valley (the 156 can be dismissed as a off race) ... But both
teams have some really good returning runners, and that includes some
runners who were not in NXN who may decide the outcome at
season's end.
Great Oak's returning overall speed ratings are about 186, 182, 179, 174 and 173 ... Depth of squad, experience at the course and winning in 2015 were considerations.
#2 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley is the two-time defending NXN Champion ... they won NXN by an impressive 70 point margin in 2017 and by 37 points over Great Oak last year ... However, Loudoun Valley had 4 runners from the NXN National team graduate (the #2, #3, #5 and #6 finishers) ... As noted last year - Fortunately for Loudoun Valley, they have additional good runners at a national-caliber team level ... Loudoun Valley reloaded last year, so maybe they can do it again.
The ranking problem is to project overall
speed ratings ... this applies to all teams, but Loudoun Valley
is the defending champion and I'm trying to guess the #1 team ...
Loudoun Valley's ability to race really well at Glendoveer
must also be considered (included in the guess or manipulate the raw
numbers
)
... I decided the returning overall speed ratings for Loudoun
Valley would be 188, 184, 174, 173 and 171 ... Top rated-runner (Carlos
Schultz) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page
(#32).
#3 - Corner Canyon UT ... Corner Canyon did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Southwest ... Corner Canyon was the Utah State 5A champion, and the top 5 guys from States and top 4 from NXR return ... and adding to an already good team, Corner Canyon is getting an elite transfer from Colorado (Easton Allred) ..... Aug 8 Update ... Easton Allred has a stress fracture in his foot diagnosed shortly after the Nike Elite Distance Camp ... He could be out anywhere from 3 weeks to 6 months ... Without Easton Allred, Corner Canyon's pre-season position drops by 8 to 10 places.
Easton Allred has transferred from Mountain Vista CO to Corner Canyon ... He finished 5th at NXN Nationals last year ... and is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#6) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 182, 175, 171, 169 and 168.
#4 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 11 years ... FM finished 5th at NXN last year, 2nd in 2017 and won NXN in 2014 ... FM did not have their best team performance at NXN Nationals last year (but still finished 5th) ... They won NXR New York with an excellent team performance ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners, but lose their top runner from NXN & NXR ... Full individual profiles of 3 FM runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page ... Returning speed ratings are about 185, 185 179, 170 and 155 ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Boys Pre-Season Team Rankings page.
#5 - Newbury Park CA
... Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN last year ... They were 3rd
in the California State merge and selected as an "At-Large" team ...
Newbury Park competed very nicely in their first NXN experience ...
They return 5 of 7 runners including their top two ... Top runner (Nico
Young) is my #2 ranked runner in the nation - Full profile on
the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page
(#2) ... Returning speed ratings are about 196, 183, 175,
173 and 160 ... similar to FM, I expect the #5 rating will be
higher (the question is "How much higher?").
#6 - York IL ... York did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Midwest, but were not selected as an "At-Large" team ... York won the first Nike Team National Championship in 2004 (a team that could be considered as good as any winning team at NXN, but there are several other contenders) ... Last year, York finished 4th at Illinois States before having their best team performance at NXR ... York returns their entire team ... Returning speed ratings are about 190, 175, 175, 170 and 168 ... Top runner (Ethan Kern) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#15).
#7 - The Woodlands TX ... The Woodlands did not compete at NXN Nationals last year (but have competed at NXN Nationals many times) ... They finished 4th at the NXR South Regional (not their best team performance) ... The Woodlands won the Texas State 6A Championship ... The Woodlands returns their entire team ... Returning speed ratings are about 185,177,171, 168, 165, 164 and 163.
#8 - Dakota Ridge CO ... Dakota Ridge finished an outstanding 3rd at NXN Nationals last year with a great team performance (only 1 point behind Great Oak) ... They were the Colorado State 5A Champions ... Dakota Ridge returns 4 of 7 runners from NXN and NXR (top finisher from NXN and NXR graduated), but they return a solid core of runners ... Top returning runner (Connor Ohlson) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#9) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 182, 180 and 175 ... a rating for the #5 runner requires a guess (I do this for a number of teams) ..... Another problem in ranking Dakota Ridge is some information that was sent to me from a reliable source, namely one of the returning runners may be transferring to a school in the lower New York-Connecticut area ... That would obviously raise the projected team score (and rank).
#9 - St. Charles East IL ... St. Charles East did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest ... they also finished 5th at Illinois States 3A ... St. Charles East returns 5 of 7 runners, but the retuning speed ratings get them ranked (top 4 from States return) ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 175, 173, 168 and 163.
#10 - Tahoma Senior WA ... Tahoma Senior did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 8th at NXR Northwest, but won the Washington State 4A Championship ... Tahoma Senior returns 6 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 178, 171, 165, 164 and 151.
#11 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL ... Wheaton Warrenville South finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 2nd at NXR Midwest (only 3 points behind Hershey), and won the Illinois State 3A race handily ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 182, 175, 170, 168 and 161.
#12 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Like the previous year, Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7 at NXN Nationals; however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 172, 168, 168, 165 and 163.
#13 - El Paso Eastwood TX ... El Paso Eastwood finished 22nd at NXN Nationals last year ... They won the NXN South Regional and were the Texas State 5A Champion ... El Paso Eastwood returns 5 of 7 runners, including their top two ... Returning speed ratings are about 173, 172, 171, 167 and 163.
#14 - Lewis and Clark WA
... Lewis and Clark finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year ...
They finished 3rd at NXR Northwest and were selected as an "At-Large"
team ... They finished 4th in the Washington State 4A race ... Lewis
and Clark returns 4 of 7 runners, including top runner (Wil Smith)
who is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page
(#29) ... Returning speed ratings are about 189, 177, 171 and 162
... the #5 runner requires a guess, and I gave them some credit
for having a good returning core of runners ... But this again points
out that guessing is used for these pre-season rankings.
#15 - Dublin CA ... Dublin did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 8th in the overall California State Merge ... Dublin returns 4 of 7 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 175, 173, 162 and 160.
#16 - Clovis North CA ... Clovis North did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 24th in the overall California State Merge ... However, Clovis North returns their top 5 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 175, 171, 165 and 158 ... Note that a strong returning core (3 runners or 2 top runners) gets credit.
#17 - La Salle Academy RI ... La Salle did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at the NXR Northeast Regional, and finished a close 2nd to Bishop Hendricken at the Rhode Island State Meet (Bishop Hendricken finished 4th at NXN Nationals) ... La Salle returns 5of 7 runners from States and NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 177, 168, 165 and 161.
#18 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... Last year, Southlake Carroll finished 20th at NXN Nationals after finishing 2nd (to El Paso Eastwood) at NXR South ... Southlake Carroll returns 4 of 7 including the top two from NXN and States, and Southlake Carroll commonly reloads quite nicely ... Returning speed ratings are about 182, 176, 167, 163 and 161.
#19 - Bishop Hendricken RI
... Bishop Hendricken finished an excellent 4th at NXN Nationals last year
(surprising some people, including me)
... they finished 2nd at NXR Northeast and won the Rhode Island State
Meet ... they return only 3 of 7 runners (losing their top 2 runners) ... Returning
speed ratings are about 180, 176, 171 and 159 ... I made a
guess at the #5-position giving Bishop Hendricken credit for
a good XC program and good-to-great performances at the NXR and NXN
races.
#20 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 7th at NXR Northwest after finishing 2nd (to Central Catholic) at the Oregon State 6A race (they lost on a tie-breaker) ... Jesuit OR returns 6 of 7 from States and 5 of 7 from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 177, 171, 168, 167, 162 and 154.
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.