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National Pre-Season XC 2019
BOYS Teams - National 2019
Bill Meylan (July 26, 2019)
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2019 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".
I did add some Regional Projections
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2019|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2019
... Note - Scores have been modified to reflect NXN scoring - Previous scores included extra teams (July 29, 2019) School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 Great Oak CA 200 California 2 Loudoun Valley VA 201 Southeast 3 Corner Canyon UT 220*** Southwest 4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 240 New York 5 Newbury Park CA 245 California 6 York IL 265 Midwest 7 The Woodlands TX 300 South 8 Dakota Ridge CO 340** Southwest 9 St. Charles East IL 345 Midwest 10 Tahoma Senior WA 350 Northwest 11 Wheaton Warrenville So IL 351 Midwest 12 Christian Brothers NJ 365 Northeast 13 El Paso Eastwood TX 375 South 14 Lewis And Clark WA 385 Northwest 15 Dublin CA 386 California 16 Clovis North-CS CA 390 California 17 La Salle Academy RI 391 Northeast 18 Southlake Carroll TX 395 South 19 Bishop Hendricken RI 400 Northeast 20 Jesuit OR 410 Northwest 21 Huntsville AL 420 Southeast 22 Davis UT UT 430 Southwest 23 Bellarmine-CCS CA 440 California 24 Hersey IL 450 Midwest 25 Middleton WI 455 Heartland 26 Mountain Vista CO 460 Southwest 27 Kamiakin WA 465 Northwest 28 Dana Hills CA 470 California 29 Oswego East IL 475 Midwest 30 Dowling Catholic IA 480 Heartland ** Heard that a top runner from Dakota Ridge MAY be transferring to a school in the New York to Connecticut area - Score would obviously change! *** Aug 8 - Top runner (Easton Allred) has a stress fracture in his foot and could be out for 3 weeks to 6 months. Corner Canyon would drop 8 to 10 places without him. The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well. Loyola-SS CA California Flower Mound TX South Camas WA Northwest Belen Jesuit Prep FL Southeast Highland High AZ Southwest Western Albemarle VA Southeast La Costa Canyon CA California North Central WA Northwest Cherokee NJ Northeast Central Catholic OR Northwest American Fork UT Southwest Mounds View MN Heartland Sandburg IL Midwest El Toro-SS CA California Saint Paul Highland Park MN Heartland LaSalle College PA Northeast Siegel TN Southeast Haddonfield Memorial NJ Northeast Carmel IN Midwest Lone Peak UT Southwest Westfield NJ Northeast LaSalle College PA Northeast Albemarle VA Southeast Lexington MA Northeast West Springfield VA Southeast Fort Wayne Concordia Lut IN Midwest Bozeman MT Northwest Woodridge OH Midwest Severna Park MD Southeast Poway-SDS CA California Germantown WI Heartland Lucas Lovejoy TX South W Windsor Plainsboro So NJ Northeast Albuquerque Academy NM Southwest Pleasant Valley IA Heartland Satellite FL Southeast Preston ID Northwest Xavier NY New York Mead Senior WA Northwest North Allegheny PA Northeast Eastview MN Heartland *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
|Comments on the TOP 20 Teams:|
#1 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year, 6th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 3 runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team, but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners.
The returning speed ratings that I used used project scores for both Great Oak and Loudoun Valley were a bit problematic when going 7 deep, so I "played" a bit with some ranges and Monte Carlo analysis and it helped me guess ... After flipping a few coins and looking at the overall numbers, Great Oak gets placed at the #1 position because the speed ratings give them an advantage ... Great Oak lost 3 runners to graduation while Loudoun Valley lost 4 runners ... The returning speed ratings from NXN Nationals were 186, 185, 180 and 174 for Great Oak and 189, 185 and 156 for Loudoun Valley (the 156 can be dismissed as a off race) ... But both teams have some really good returning runners, and that includes some runners who were not in NXN who may decide the outcome at season's end.
Great Oak's returning overall speed ratings are about 186, 182, 179, 174 and 173 ... Depth of squad, experience at the course and winning in 2015 were considerations.
#2 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley is the two-time defending NXN Champion ... they won NXN by an impressive 70 point margin in 2017 and by 37 points over Great Oak last year ... However, Loudoun Valley had 4 runners from the NXN National team graduate (the #2, #3, #5 and #6 finishers) ... As noted last year - Fortunately for Loudoun Valley, they have additional good runners at a national-caliber team level ... Loudoun Valley reloaded last year, so maybe they can do it again.
The ranking problem is to project overall speed ratings ... this applies to all teams, but Loudoun Valley is the defending champion and I'm trying to guess the #1 team ... Loudoun Valley's ability to race really well at Glendoveer must also be considered (included in the guess or manipulate the raw numbers) ... I decided the returning overall speed ratings for Loudoun Valley would be 188, 184, 174, 173 and 171 ... Top rated-runner (Carlos Schultz) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#32).
#3 - Corner Canyon UT ... Corner Canyon did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Southwest ... Corner Canyon was the Utah State 5A champion, and the top 5 guys from States and top 4 from NXR return ... and adding to an already good team, Corner Canyon is getting an elite transfer from Colorado (Easton Allred) ..... Aug 8 Update ... Easton Allred has a stress fracture in his foot diagnosed shortly after the Nike Elite Distance Camp ... He could be out anywhere from 3 weeks to 6 months ... Without Easton Allred, Corner Canyon's pre-season position drops by 8 to 10 places.
Easton Allred has transferred from Mountain Vista CO to Corner Canyon ... He finished 5th at NXN Nationals last year ... and is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#6) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 182, 175, 171, 169 and 168.
#4 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 11 years ... FM finished 5th at NXN last year, 2nd in 2017 and won NXN in 2014 ... FM did not have their best team performance at NXN Nationals last year (but still finished 5th) ... They won NXR New York with an excellent team performance ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners, but lose their top runner from NXN & NXR ... Full individual profiles of 3 FM runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page ... Returning speed ratings are about 185, 185 179, 170 and 155 ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Boys Pre-Season Team Rankings page.
#5 - Newbury Park CA ... Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN last year ... They were 3rd in the California State merge and selected as an "At-Large" team ... Newbury Park competed very nicely in their first NXN experience ... They return 5 of 7 runners including their top two ... Top runner (Nico Young) is my #2 ranked runner in the nation - Full profile on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#2) ... Returning speed ratings are about 196, 183, 175, 173 and 160 ... similar to FM, I expect the #5 rating will be higher (the question is "How much higher?").
#6 - York IL ... York did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Midwest, but were not selected as an "At-Large" team ... York won the first Nike Team National Championship in 2004 (a team that could be considered as good as any winning team at NXN, but there are several other contenders) ... Last year, York finished 4th at Illinois States before having their best team performance at NXR ... York returns their entire team ... Returning speed ratings are about 190, 175, 175, 170 and 168 ... Top runner (Ethan Kern) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#15).
#7 - The Woodlands TX ... The Woodlands did not compete at NXN Nationals last year (but have competed at NXN Nationals many times) ... They finished 4th at the NXR South Regional (not their best team performance) ... The Woodlands won the Texas State 6A Championship ... The Woodlands returns their entire team ... Returning speed ratings are about 185,177,171, 168, 165, 164 and 163.
#8 - Dakota Ridge CO ... Dakota Ridge finished an outstanding 3rd at NXN Nationals last year with a great team performance (only 1 point behind Great Oak) ... They were the Colorado State 5A Champions ... Dakota Ridge returns 4 of 7 runners from NXN and NXR (top finisher from NXN and NXR graduated), but they return a solid core of runners ... Top returning runner (Connor Ohlson) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#9) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 182, 180 and 175 ... a rating for the #5 runner requires a guess (I do this for a number of teams) ..... Another problem in ranking Dakota Ridge is some information that was sent to me from a reliable source, namely one of the returning runners may be transferring to a school in the lower New York-Connecticut area ... That would obviously raise the projected team score (and rank).
#9 - St. Charles East IL ... St. Charles East did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest ... they also finished 5th at Illinois States 3A ... St. Charles East returns 5 of 7 runners, but the retuning speed ratings get them ranked (top 4 from States return) ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 175, 173, 168 and 163.
#10 - Tahoma Senior WA ... Tahoma Senior did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 8th at NXR Northwest, but won the Washington State 4A Championship ... Tahoma Senior returns 6 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 178, 171, 165, 164 and 151.
#11 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL ... Wheaton Warrenville South finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 2nd at NXR Midwest (only 3 points behind Hershey), and won the Illinois State 3A race handily ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 182, 175, 170, 168 and 161.
#12 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Like the previous year, Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7 at NXN Nationals; however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 172, 168, 168, 165 and 163.
#13 - El Paso Eastwood TX ... El Paso Eastwood finished 22nd at NXN Nationals last year ... They won the NXN South Regional and were the Texas State 5A Champion ... El Paso Eastwood returns 5 of 7 runners, including their top two ... Returning speed ratings are about 173, 172, 171, 167 and 163.
#14 - Lewis and Clark WA ... Lewis and Clark finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Northwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team ... They finished 4th in the Washington State 4A race ... Lewis and Clark returns 4 of 7 runners, including top runner (Wil Smith) who is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#29) ... Returning speed ratings are about 189, 177, 171 and 162 ... the #5 runner requires a guess, and I gave them some credit for having a good returning core of runners ... But this again points out that guessing is used for these pre-season rankings.
#15 - Dublin CA ... Dublin did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 8th in the overall California State Merge ... Dublin returns 4 of 7 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 175, 173, 162 and 160.
#16 - Clovis North CA ... Clovis North did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 24th in the overall California State Merge ... However, Clovis North returns their top 5 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 175, 171, 165 and 158 ... Note that a strong returning core (3 runners or 2 top runners) gets credit.
#17 - La Salle Academy RI ... La Salle did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at the NXR Northeast Regional, and finished a close 2nd to Bishop Hendricken at the Rhode Island State Meet (Bishop Hendricken finished 4th at NXN Nationals) ... La Salle returns 5of 7 runners from States and NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 177, 168, 165 and 161.
#18 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... Last year, Southlake Carroll finished 20th at NXN Nationals after finishing 2nd (to El Paso Eastwood) at NXR South ... Southlake Carroll returns 4 of 7 including the top two from NXN and States, and Southlake Carroll commonly reloads quite nicely ... Returning speed ratings are about 182, 176, 167, 163 and 161.
#19 - Bishop Hendricken RI ... Bishop Hendricken finished an excellent 4th at NXN Nationals last year (surprising some people, including me) ... they finished 2nd at NXR Northeast and won the Rhode Island State Meet ... they return only 3 of 7 runners (losing their top 2 runners) ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 176, 171 and 159 ... I made a guess at the #5-position giving Bishop Hendricken credit for a good XC program and good-to-great performances at the NXR and NXN races.
#20 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 7th at NXR Northwest after finishing 2nd (to Central Catholic) at the Oregon State 6A race (they lost on a tie-breaker) ... Jesuit OR returns 6 of 7 from States and 5 of 7 from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 177, 171, 168, 167, 162 and 154.
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ... Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.
|Last Year's (2018) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2018 Pre-Season Projection ------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Loudoun Valley VA 255 Southeast 1 Loudoun Valley VA - #1 pre-season 2 Great Oak CA 260 California 2 Great Oak CA - #2 pre-season 3 Burnt Hills NY 265 New York 3 Dakota Ridge CO - #19 pre-season 4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 275 New York 4 Bishop Hendricken RI - #9 pre-season 5 St. Francis (Mt View) CA 285 California 5 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #4 pre-season 6 Wheaton Warrenville So IL 290 Midwest 6 Newbury Park CA - unranked 7 American Fork UT 325 Southwest 7 American Fork UT - #7 pre-season 8 Dana Hills CA 330 California 8 West Ranch CA - unranked 9 Bishop Hendricken RI 365 Northeast 9 Bolles FL - #17 pre-season 10 Central Valley WA 375 Northwest 10 Lewis And Clark WA - #25 pre-season 11 Kamiakin WA 375 Northwest 11 La Costa Canyon CA - unranked 12 Christian Brothers NJ 390 Northeast 12 Mountain Vista CO - unranked 13 Flower Mound TX 395 South 13 Wheaton Warrenville So IL - #6 pre-season 14 Middleton WI 396 Heartland 14 Burnt Hills NY - #3 pre-season 15 Dowling Catholic IA 397 Heartland 15 Kamiakin WA - unranked 16 Wayzata MN 398 Heartland 16 Central Valley WA - #10 pre-season 17 Bolles FL 399 Southeast 17 Mounds View MN - unranked 18 Xavier CT 400 Northeast 18 Christian Brothers NJ - #12 pre-season 19 Dakota Ridge CO 415 Southwest 19 Hershey IL - unranked 20 Plymouth MI 425 Midwest 20 Southlake Carrol TX - #30+ group pre-season 21 Haddonfield Mem. NJ 430 Northeast 21 Middleton WI - #14 pre-season 22 Camas WA 440 Northwest 22 El Paso Eastwood TX - #30+ group pre-season 23 Carmel IN 440 Midwest 24 Edmonds Woodway WA 450 Northwest 25 Lewis And Clark WA 450 Northwest 26 Indianapolis Cathedral IN 450 Midwest 27 Cary NC 451 Southeast 28 Fishers IN 460 Midwest 29 Corning NY 460 New York 30 La Salle Academy RI 470 Northeast 30* Smithson Valley TX 470 South
|Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections 2019|
Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.
Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2018 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams get excluded).
I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.
California Great Oak CA 70 California Newbury Park CA 90 California Dublin CA 120 California Clovis North-CS CA 125 California Bellarmine-CCS CA 135 California Dana Hills CA 135 California Loyola-SS CA 145 California La Costa Canyon CA 150 California El Toro-SS CA 160 California Poway-SDS CA 170 California Heartland Middleton WI 106 Heartland Dowling Catholic IA 115 Heartland Mounds View MN 134 Heartland Saint Paul Highland Par MN 154 Heartland Germantown WI 162 Heartland Pleasant Valley IA 167 Heartland Eden Prairie MN 171 Heartland Eastview MN 174 Heartland Lawrence Free State KS 175 Heartland Williston ND 189 Heartland Stevens Point WI 191 Heartland Sioux Falls Lincoln SD 195 Heartland Century ND 216 Heartland *** Note - Could not find enough guys from Wayzata at a certain level to guess a score, so they were excluded. Midwest York IL 75 Midwest St. Charles East IL 90 Midwest Wheaton Warrenville So IL 95 Midwest Hersey IL 115 Midwest Oswego East IL 120 Midwest Sandburg IL 130 Midwest Carmel IN 141 Midwest Fort Wayne Concordia Lu IN 143 Midwest Woodridge OH 145 Midwest New York (see NY Boys Projection Page) Fayetteville-Manlius NY 125 New York Xavier NY 280 New York Shenendehowa NY 315 New York Guilderland NY 350 New York Saratoga NY 375 New York Burnt Hills NY 380 New York Beaver River NY 390 New York East Aurora NY 395 New York Warwick Valley NY 405 New York Saranac Lake NY 415 New York Mount Academy NY 420 New York Ithaca NY 435 New York Corning NY 450 New York Shaker NY 460 New York Liverpool NY 465 New York Northeast Christian Brothers NJ 95 Northeast La Salle RI 115 Northeast Bishop Hendricken RI 130 Northeast Cherokee NJ 150 Northeast Westfield NJ 151 Northeast LaSalle College PA 155 Northeast Haddonfield Memorial NJ 160 Northeast Lexington MA 165 Northeast W Windsor Plainsboro So NJ 175 Northeast North Allegheny PA 185 Northeast Coe Brown Academy NH 190 Northeast Mendham NJ 195 Northeast Northwest Tahoma Senior WA 90 Northwest Jesuit OR 100 Northwest Lewis And Clark WA 105 Northwest Kamiakin WA 120 Northwest Camas WA 125 Northwest Central Catholic OR 126 Northwest North Central WA 130 Northwest Bozeman MT 150 Northwest Preston ID 165 Northwest Mead Senior WA 170 Northwest South The Woodlands TX 65 South El Paso Eastwood TX 70 South Southlake Carroll TX 75 South Flower Mound TX 100 South Lucas Lovejoy TX 130 South Houston Strake Jesuit TX 145 South Bentonville AR 150 South Fayetteville AR 165 South Deer Creek OK 180 South Southeast Loudoun Valley VA 60 Southeast Huntsville AL 120 Southeast Belen Jesuit Prep FL 150 Southeast Western Albemarle VA 155 Southeast Siegel TN 160 Southeast Albemarle VA 170 Southeast Severna Park MD 175 Southeast West Springfield VA 176 Southeast Providence Day School NC 190 Southeast Satellite FL 195 Southeast Vestavia Hills AL 196 Southeast Chapel Hill NC 197 Southeast Dorman SC 210 Southeast Southwest Corner Canyon UT 50 Southwest Dakota Ridge CO 90 ** Southwest Davis UT UT 100 Southwest Mountain Vista CO 115 Southwest Highland High AZ 120 Southwest American Fork UT 121 Southwest Lone Peak UT 135 Southwest Albuquerque Academy NM 150 Southwest Farmington UT 170 Southwest ** Heard one of the top Dakota Ridge runners MAY be transferring to a school in the New York to Connecticut area - score would change!