My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2014 XC season into 2015 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2014 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2015 race results are what count.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2015
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 170 New York
2 Great Oak CA 171 California
3 Saratoga Springs NY 245 New York
4 Carmel IN 285 Midwest
5 Glenbard West IL 290 Midwest
6 Naperville North IL 310 Midwest
7 Shenendehowa NY 320 New York
8 Davis UT 350 Southwest
9 Lake Braddock VA 360 Southeast
10 Northville MI 370 Midwest
11 Pennsbury PA 375 Northeast
12 Wayzata MN 380 Heartland
13 La Salle Academy RI 390 Northeast
14 Hinsdale Central IL 395 Midwest
15 Willmar MN 400 Heartland
16 Edina MN 415 Heartland
17 Saugus CA 420 California
18 Winter Park FL 421 Southeast
19 Lewisville Marcus TX 425 South
20 Oakton VA 430 Southeast
21 Serrano CA 435 California
22 Camas WA 436 Northwest
23 American Fork UT 437 Southwest
24 Green Hope NC 438 Southeast
25 Coe-Brown NH 450 Northeast
26 Bella Vista CA 455 California
27 Urbandale IA 465 Heartland
28 Desert Vista AZ 470 Southwest
29 Summit OR 475 Northwest
30 Lewisville Hebron TX 480 South
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Minooka IL Midwest
St. Thomas Aquinas KS Heartland
Mason OH Midwest
North Rockland NY New York
Suffern NY New York
Hillsborough NJ Northeast
Needham MA Northeast
Columbus North IN Midwest
Monroe-Woodbury NY New York
Sunset OR Northwest
Riverside SC Southeast
Palatine IL Midwest
Centerville OH Midwest
Blacksburg VA Southeast
New Trier IL Midwest
Phillips Andover MA Northeast
The Bolles School FL Southeast
Cardinal O'Hara PA Northeast
Walter Johnson MD Southeast
W Warrenville South IL Midwest
Forest Lake MN Heartland
Cherry Creek CO Southwest
Highland-Milford MI Midwest
Johnston IA Heartland
Bozeman MT Northwest
Coeur D'Alene ID Northwest
Tolland CT Northeast
Humble Kingwood TX South
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Sachem East NY New York
Monarch CO Southwest
Pendleton Heights IN Midwest
Southlake Carroll TX South
Sun Prairie WI Heartland
Unionville PA Northeast
Barrington RI Northeast
Sacred Heart KY Southeast
Cardinal Gibbons NC Southeast
Myers Park NC Southeast
James Madison VA Southeast
Bishop Guertin NH Northeast
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2014 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season
).
...
Either Fayetteville-Manlius NY or Great Oak CA could be
selected as the top national team entering the 2015 XC season ...
Great Oak appears to be stronger in terms of team depth at a
high level ... This could be the most vulnerable Fayetteville-Manlius
has been since they started winning NXN in 2006 ... FM may be
pressed just to win in New York ... But only two girls teams in the
entire nation return a core of three runners at a speed rating level of
130 or higher, and those two teams are Fayetteville-Manlius
and Great Oak ... I think Great Oak is the strongest
overall team in the nation, but Fayetteville-Manlius is
the defending champion ... and any "multiple-time" returning champion
that has this much strength gets my benefit-of-the-doubt until proven
different.
... But 2015 is a new season ... and handicapping it requires looking
back to last year ... Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN 2014 by
running as a pack (only 11 seconds separated their 5 scorers, and 3 of
them return this year) ... That core of 3 returning runners matches up
nicely with Great Oak (in terms of team scoring) ... Last year's
FM squad was not the strongest FM girls team
to compete at NXN, and they still beat Great Oak by 79 points.