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Pre-Season XC 2015
BOYS Teams - National 2015
Bill Meylan (July 30, 2015)
|Boys - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2014 XC season into 2015 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2015 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2015|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2015 School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 American Fork UT 270 Southwest 2 Christian Brothers NJ 275 Northeast 3 Sandburg IL 305 Midwest 4 Lafayette MO 315 Midwest 5 Dana Hills CA 320 California 6 Carmel IN 325 Midwest 7 Great Oak CA 330 California 8 Davis UT 335 Southwest 9 North Central WA 345 Northwest 10 Ventura CA 350 California 11 La Salle Academy RI 360 Northeast 12 Madera South CA 365 California 13 York IL 370 Midwest 14 Wayzata MN 380 Heartland 15 St. Anthony's NY 385 New York 16 Desert Hills UT 390 Southwest 17 Rockford MI 410 Midwest 18 Tahoma WA 420 Northwest 19 The Woodlands TX 430 South 20 Hopkins MN 435 Heartland 21 West Torrance CA 440 California 22 Brea Olinda CA 445 California 23 South Oldham KY 450 Southeast 24 Lowell MA 455 Northeast 25 Broughton NC 460 Southeast 26 Edina MN 465 Heartland 27 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 470 New York 28 Kamiakin WA 475 Northwest 29 Southlake Carroll TX 480 South 30 Summit OR 480 Northwest The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well. Mountain Vista CO Southwest St. Ignatius OH Midwest Don Bosco NJ Northeast East Aurora NY New York Liverpool NY New York Cherry Hill East NJ Northeast Marietta GA Southeast Neuqua Valley IL Midwest Dulaney MD Southeast Pittsford Mendon NY New York Canyon/anaheim CA California Cambridge Rindge Latin MA Northeast Saint John's MA Northeast Timpanogos UT Southwest Shenendehowa NY New York Lake Zurich IL Midwest Crater OR Northwest West Lafayette IN Midwest Mountain View ID Northwest Severna Park MD Southeast Lake Braddock VA Southeast Brentwood TN Southeast Burroughs/burbank CA California Auburn AL Southeast Carroll (Fort Wayne) IN Midwest White Lake Lakeland MI Midwest Frisco Wakeland TX South Belen Jesuit FL Southeast Robbinsville NJ Northeast Weddington NC Southeast Hilton Head SC Southeast Downingtown West PA Northeast Albuquerque Academy NM Southwest McHenry IL Midwest *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2014 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2015 XC season in a reasonable order ... If it does, I made some decent guesses ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2014 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2014 are shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2014, I did not identify 3 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 15 of the 22 NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams ... The top 5 teams at NXN were all ranked in my pre-season top 8 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
The top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners ... and many of these teams are teams that have qualified for NXN on multiple occasions ... This year is no different.
American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last six NXN championships ... American Fork was 2nd at NXN 2012, 7th at NXN 2013 and 5th last year ... They return 2 of their top 3 NXN scorers and 3 of their top 5 ... American Fork is deep in talent, and their prospects look good entering the 2015 XC season ... Although Christian Brothers NJ has a slight advantage in speed rating scores, American Fork gets the call as a very slight favorite based on a better performance at the new Glendoveer course last year.
Christian Brothers NJ was my pre-season favorite the previous two years ... CBA (who finished 11th at NXN last year and 2nd the year before) returns 5 of their 7 NXN runners, including 3 of their top 4 scorers ... CBA is deep in talent and could easily be considered the pre-season favorite once again.
Sandburg IL finished 15th at NXN last year ... They return 6 of their 7 NXN runners, losing their top finisher from last year ... The NXN experience from last year could be very helpful for Sandburg ... They are a serious contender to make the podium and possibly win NXN 2015.
Lafayette MO finished a very good 4th at the NXN Midwest Regional last year ... They were an impressive winner at the Missouri State Meet ... and Lafayette returns all five scorers from the NXN regional and State Meet ... another serious contender to make the podium and possibly win NXN 2015.
The California Teams ... The Top 30 List above includes 6 California teams (Midwest - 5 teams ... Northwest, Southwest, Northeast, Heartland - 3 teams; New York, South, Southeast - 2 teams) ..... Not much separates Dana Hills, Great Oak, Madera South and Ventura ... Ventura is the only team of these that competed at NXN last year, and Ventura finished a very good 7th ... Normally I would move Ventura up a bit (compared to the other CA teams), but decided to leave the positioning "as is" based on projected speed ratings for 2015 ... Dana Hills has been to NXN six time before ...... I was going to remove Brea Olinda from the top 30 (and place below) based on speculation that Austin Tamagno would run Footlocker again, but decided not to.
Carmel IN ... finished 16th at NXN last year, and return 6 of their top 7, including their top 3 with top national runner Ben Veatch.
Davis UT and North Central WA are fixtures at NXN National ... Davis UT has been to NXN the last fives years (6th last year) ... North Central WA (3rd last year) has been to NXN 8 times.
La Salle Academy RI ... La Salle won the NXN Northeast Regional impressively over Christian Brothers NJ, and then finished 18th at NXN ... they return 3 of their 5 scorers from NXN.
York IL has been to NXN 9 times ... York finished 3rd at the NXN Midwest Regional last year and return their top 6 runners.
Wayzata MN finished 2nd at NXN last year (and has been to NXN 6 times) ... Wayzata did lose 3 of their 5 NXN scorers to graduation, but they have a deep team.
The New York State Teams .... Last year, I had both Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool in the top 8 pre-season teams ... Unfortunately, New York does not look as strong this coming season ... More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles ... Overall, New York has some uncertainty with respect to the boys teams this coming season.
... St. Anthony's finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year, but lose 3 NXN scorers to graduation ... St. Anthony's has good team depth.
... Fayetteville-Manlius ... Even though Fayetteville-Manlius is not in my top two picks within NY State, I decided to pick them as the second NY team to qualify for NXN ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 9 times with 4 podium finishes including winning last year (that's a pretty good start) ... They lose 5 NXN runners to graduation, but return Peter Ryan who was15th at NXN last year (New York's top runner at NXN) ... whether FM can reload sufficient remains to be seen.
Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.
|Last Year's (2014) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2014 Pre-Season Projection ------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Christian Brothers NJ 255 Northeast 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #2 pre-season 2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 265 New York 2 Wayzata MN - #4 pre-season 3 American Fork UT 285 Southwest 3 North Central WA - #5 pre-season 4 Wayzata MN 300 Heartland 4 Liverpool NY - #8 pre-season 5 North Central WA 305 Northwest 5 American Fork UT - #3 pre-season 6 Central Catholic OR 310 Northwest 6 Davis UT - #14 pre-season 7 La Salle Academy RI 325 Northeast 7 Ventura CA - unranked 8 Liverpool NY 330 New York 8 St. Anthony's NY - unranked 9 Madera South CA 350 California 9 Edina MN - #30+ group pre-season 10 Kamiakin WA 355 Northwest 10 Jurupa Hills CA - #16 pre-season 11 Dana Hills CA 360 California 11 Christian Brothers NJ - #1 pre-season 12 Warren CA 361 California 12 Timpanogos UT - #30+ group pre-season 13 Great Oak CA 362 California 13 Severna Park MD - unranked 14 Davis UT 375 Southwest 14 Daniel Boone TN - #30+ group pre-season 15 Summit OR 385 Northwest 15 Sandburg IL - #23 pre-season 16 Jurupa Hills CA 395 California 16 Carmel IN - #17 pre-season 17 Carmel IN 400 Midwest 17 Summit OR - #15 pre-season 18 North Allegheny PA 410 Northeast 18 La Salle Academy RI - #7 pre-season 19 Malvern Prep PA 420 Northeast 19 Southlake Carroll TX - #30 pre-season 20 Stillwater MN 430 Heartland 20 Brea Olinda CA - #21 pre-season 21 Brea Olinda CA 440 California 21 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - #24 pre-season 22 Waterford Mott MI 450 Midwest 22 The Woodlands TX - #30+ group pre-season 23 Sandburg IL 460 Midwest 24 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD 465 Heartland 25 Bellarmine CA 470 California 26 Saugus CA 471 California 27 College Park TX 475 South 28 St. Xavier OH 476 Midwest 29 Hilliard Davidson OH 477 Midwest 30 Southlake Carroll TX 480 South