My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2014 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess
.
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2014
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Christian Brothers NJ 255 Northeast
2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 265 New York
3 American Fork UT 285 Southwest
4 Wayzata MN 300 Heartland
5 North Central WA 305 Northwest
6 Central Catholic OR 310 Northwest
7 La Salle Academy RI 325 Northeast
8 Liverpool NY 330 New York
9 Madera South CA 350 California
10 Kamiakin WA 355 Northwest
11 Dana Hills CA 360 California
12 Warren CA 361 California
13 Great Oak CA 362 California
14 Davis UT 375 Southwest
15 Summit OR 385 Northwest
16 Jurupa Hills CA 395 California
17 Carmel IN 400 Midwest
18 North Allegheny PA 410 Northeast
19 Malvern Prep PA 420 Northeast
20 Stillwater MN 430 Heartland
21 Brea Olinda CA 440 California
22 Waterford Mott MI 450 Midwest
23 Sandburg IL 460 Midwest
24 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD 465 Heartland
25 Bellarmine CA 470 California
26 Saugus CA 471 California
27 College Park TX 475 South
28 St. Xavier OH 476 Midwest
29 Hilliard Davidson OH 477 Midwest
30 Southlake Carroll TX 480 South
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well
York IL Midwest
Central Valley WA Northwest
Timpanogos UT Southwest
Midlothian VA Southeast
Don Bosco NJ Northeast
New Trier IL Midwest
Rubidoux CA California
Canyon/anaheim CA California
Auburn AL Southeast
Gig Harbor WA Northwest
St. Louis Un. High MO Midwest
Cardinal O'Hara PA Northeast
Capital ID Northwest
Mansfield MA Northeast
Davis Sr. CA California
Bishop Hendricken RI Northeast
Columbus North IN Midwest
Tatnall DE Southeast
Neuqua Valley IL Midwest
Daniel Boone TN Southeast
Edina MN Heartland
Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest
Hinsdale Central IL Midwest
Ridgefield CT Northeast
West Lafayette IN Midwest
Buffalo Grove IL Midwest
Stevens Point WI Heartland
Manhattan KS Heartland
Cooper KY Southeast
Broughton NC Southeast
Pleasant Valley IA Heartland
Lafayette MO Midwest
Naperville (North) IL Midwest
Albuquerque Academy NM Southwest
Mountain View (ID) ID Northwest
Dulaney MD Southeast
The Woodlands TX South
W.W.P. South NJ Northeast
West Plains MO Midwest
Prairie, Cedar Rapids IA Heartland
Skyview WA Northwest
Cherry Hill East NJ Northeast
O'Fallon IL Midwest
Tesoro CA California
Warwick Valley NY New York
Belen Jesuit FL Southeast
Fort Collins CO Southwest
Rogers AR South
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above
identifies many of the top teams entering the 2014 XC season in a reasonable order ... If
it does, I made some decent guesses
... As a point of reference for last year, my 2013 pre-season
projections with corresponding results from NXN 2013 are
shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at
NXN 2013, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30
teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 15 of the 22 NXN teams
were ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
The top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners ... and many of these teams are teams that have qualified for NXN on multiple occasions ... This year is no different.
Christian Brothers NJ was the pre-season favorite last year and CBA is the pre-season favorite again this year ... CBA (who finished 2nd at NXN last year) did lose four NXN runners to graduation, including their top two runners ... However, CBA is remarkably deep and returns a full squad of NXN level talent ... To be a season-long favorite, they might need a couple of guys to step-up a bit in performance level to replace their top two graduates.
The New York State Teams .... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are both ranked in the top 10 above ... Both are Class A teams that compete in Section 3 of NY State ... Both teams compete in the CNYCL League ... ONLY the winning team at the Section 3 sectional championship meet is eligible to compete at the NYSPHSAA State Championships Meet.
.. Fayetteville-Manlius finished 4th at NXN last year and returns six of their NXN runners (that alone gets them highly ranked) ... In addition, FM gets respect because of prior appearances and success at NXN ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 8 times with three podium finishes ... FM has a top national runner in Bryce Millar (see the Pre-season National Rankings of Individuals).
.. Liverpool was young and improving entering last year's XC season with signs pointing to a national ranking ... Liverpool fulfilled their potential with some very good performances and got invited to NXN as an "at-large" team after finishing a good 3rd to Fayetteville-Manlius and Northport at the NXN-New York Regional ... They finished 20th at NXN and return their top six finishers from NXN ... By raw numbers alone, Liverpool could be ranked higher than I have them above, but they did not have a good team performance at NXN Nationals and I take that into consideration.
.. More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles, including profiles for the top five returners of both Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool.
American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last five NXN championships ... American Fork was 2nd at NXN 2012 and 7th last year ... They lose four NXN runners to graduation, but they return two of their top three NXN scorers ... American Fork is another team deep in talent, and their prospects look good entering the 2014 XC season.
Wayzata MN finished 15th at NXN last year and return six of their runners, including their top runner ... Wayzata has competed at NXN Nationals 5 times.
North Central WA finished 8th at NXN last year and return five of their 7 runners ... They did lose NXN winner Kai Wilmot to graduation, but Tanner Anderson is a pre-season favorite to win NXN this year ... North Central has competed at NXN Nationals 7 times.
Central Catholic OR finished 19th at NXN last year (as an "at-large" team) and return six of their 7 runners ... Central Catholic has competed at NXN Nationals 3 times.
La Salle Academy (Rhode Island) ... Last year, La Salle Academy finished 2nd at the Rhode Island State Meet and then won the New England Championship Meet ... They finished 8th at the NXN Northeast Regional ... La Salle Academy returns all seven runners from those races .... La Salle Academy gets a rating boost from some good track performances including four 3200 meter times from the Loucks Games (9:11.24, 9:15.54, 9:15.87 and 9:33.28 ... in that race, Northport had three guys at 8:53, 8:54 and 9:01) ... La Salle Academy has never competed at NXN.
Note ... For any pre-season rankings, I give credit to teams that are good on an annual basis ... Southlake Carroll TX has been to NXN 7 times, Dana Hills CA has been to NXN 6 times, Davis UT has been to NXN the last four years, York IL (the first team below the top 30) has been to NXN 9 times.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
.