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Pre-Season XC 2014
BOYS Teams - National 2014
Bill Meylan (August 1, 2014)
|Boys - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2014 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess.
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2014|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2014 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Christian Brothers NJ 255 Northeast 2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 265 New York 3 American Fork UT 285 Southwest 4 Wayzata MN 300 Heartland 5 North Central WA 305 Northwest 6 Central Catholic OR 310 Northwest 7 La Salle Academy RI 325 Northeast 8 Liverpool NY 330 New York 9 Madera South CA 350 California 10 Kamiakin WA 355 Northwest 11 Dana Hills CA 360 California 12 Warren CA 361 California 13 Great Oak CA 362 California 14 Davis UT 375 Southwest 15 Summit OR 385 Northwest 16 Jurupa Hills CA 395 California 17 Carmel IN 400 Midwest 18 North Allegheny PA 410 Northeast 19 Malvern Prep PA 420 Northeast 20 Stillwater MN 430 Heartland 21 Brea Olinda CA 440 California 22 Waterford Mott MI 450 Midwest 23 Sandburg IL 460 Midwest 24 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD 465 Heartland 25 Bellarmine CA 470 California 26 Saugus CA 471 California 27 College Park TX 475 South 28 St. Xavier OH 476 Midwest 29 Hilliard Davidson OH 477 Midwest 30 Southlake Carroll TX 480 South The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well York IL Midwest Central Valley WA Northwest Timpanogos UT Southwest Midlothian VA Southeast Don Bosco NJ Northeast New Trier IL Midwest Rubidoux CA California Canyon/anaheim CA California Auburn AL Southeast Gig Harbor WA Northwest St. Louis Un. High MO Midwest Cardinal O'Hara PA Northeast Capital ID Northwest Mansfield MA Northeast Davis Sr. CA California Bishop Hendricken RI Northeast Columbus North IN Midwest Tatnall DE Southeast Neuqua Valley IL Midwest Daniel Boone TN Southeast Edina MN Heartland Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest Hinsdale Central IL Midwest Ridgefield CT Northeast West Lafayette IN Midwest Buffalo Grove IL Midwest Stevens Point WI Heartland Manhattan KS Heartland Cooper KY Southeast Broughton NC Southeast Pleasant Valley IA Heartland Lafayette MO Midwest Naperville (North) IL Midwest Albuquerque Academy NM Southwest Mountain View (ID) ID Northwest Dulaney MD Southeast The Woodlands TX South W.W.P. South NJ Northeast West Plains MO Midwest Prairie, Cedar Rapids IA Heartland Skyview WA Northwest Cherry Hill East NJ Northeast O'Fallon IL Midwest Tesoro CA California Warwick Valley NY New York Belen Jesuit FL Southeast Fort Collins CO Southwest Rogers AR South *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2013 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2014 XC season in a reasonable order ... If it does, I made some decent guesses ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2013 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2013 are shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2013, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 15 of the 22 NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
The top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners ... and many of these teams are teams that have qualified for NXN on multiple occasions ... This year is no different.
Christian Brothers NJ was the pre-season favorite last year and CBA is the pre-season favorite again this year ... CBA (who finished 2nd at NXN last year) did lose four NXN runners to graduation, including their top two runners ... However, CBA is remarkably deep and returns a full squad of NXN level talent ... To be a season-long favorite, they might need a couple of guys to step-up a bit in performance level to replace their top two graduates.
The New York State Teams .... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are both ranked in the top 10 above ... Both are Class A teams that compete in Section 3 of NY State ... Both teams compete in the CNYCL League ... ONLY the winning team at the Section 3 sectional championship meet is eligible to compete at the NYSPHSAA State Championships Meet.
.. Fayetteville-Manlius finished 4th at NXN last year and returns six of their NXN runners (that alone gets them highly ranked) ... In addition, FM gets respect because of prior appearances and success at NXN ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 8 times with three podium finishes ... FM has a top national runner in Bryce Millar (see the Pre-season National Rankings of Individuals).
.. Liverpool was young and improving entering last year's XC season with signs pointing to a national ranking ... Liverpool fulfilled their potential with some very good performances and got invited to NXN as an "at-large" team after finishing a good 3rd to Fayetteville-Manlius and Northport at the NXN-New York Regional ... They finished 20th at NXN and return their top six finishers from NXN ... By raw numbers alone, Liverpool could be ranked higher than I have them above, but they did not have a good team performance at NXN Nationals and I take that into consideration.
.. More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles, including profiles for the top five returners of both Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool.
American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last five NXN championships ... American Fork was 2nd at NXN 2012 and 7th last year ... They lose four NXN runners to graduation, but they return two of their top three NXN scorers ... American Fork is another team deep in talent, and their prospects look good entering the 2014 XC season.
Wayzata MN finished 15th at NXN last year and return six of their runners, including their top runner ... Wayzata has competed at NXN Nationals 5 times.
North Central WA finished 8th at NXN last year and return five of their 7 runners ... They did lose NXN winner Kai Wilmot to graduation, but Tanner Anderson is a pre-season favorite to win NXN this year ... North Central has competed at NXN Nationals 7 times.
Central Catholic OR finished 19th at NXN last year (as an "at-large" team) and return six of their 7 runners ... Central Catholic has competed at NXN Nationals 3 times.
La Salle Academy (Rhode Island) ... Last year, La Salle Academy finished 2nd at the Rhode Island State Meet and then won the New England Championship Meet ... They finished 8th at the NXN Northeast Regional ... La Salle Academy returns all seven runners from those races .... La Salle Academy gets a rating boost from some good track performances including four 3200 meter times from the Loucks Games (9:11.24, 9:15.54, 9:15.87 and 9:33.28 ... in that race, Northport had three guys at 8:53, 8:54 and 9:01) ... La Salle Academy has never competed at NXN.
Note ... For any pre-season rankings, I give credit to teams that are good on an annual basis ... Southlake Carroll TX has been to NXN 7 times, Dana Hills CA has been to NXN 6 times, Davis UT has been to NXN the last four years, York IL (the first team below the top 30) has been to NXN 9 times.
Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.
|Last Year's (2013) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2013 Pre-Season Projection ------------------ ----- ----- ------ ----------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Christian Brothers NJ 220 Northeast 1 Gig Harbor WA - #8 pre-season 2 Arcadia CA 240 California 2 Christian Brothers Ac NJ - #1 pre-season 3 American Fork UT 260 Southwest 3 Brentwood HS TN - #7 pre-season 4 West Chester Henderson PA 265 Northeast 4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #18 pre-season 5 North Central WA 270 Northwest 5 Carmel IN - #6 pre-season 6 Carmel IN 310 Midwest 6 St. Xavier OH - unranked 7 Brentwood HS TN 330 Southeast 7 American Fork UT - #3 pre-season 8 Gig Harbor WA 335 Northwest 8 North Central WA - #5 pre-season 9