Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below.
I limited the Combined Class list to 27 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2014
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 27 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 65 (03-A )
2 Liverpool 75 (03-A )
3 Warwick Valley 270 (09-A )
4 St. Anthony's 290 (CHSAA)
5 Pittsford Mendon 330 (05-B )
6 Mount Academy 335 (09-C )
7 Ithaca 345 (04-A )
8 Shenendehowa 360 (02-A )
9 Chaminade 361 (CHSAA)
10 Fordham Prep 370 (CHSAA)
11 Syosset 371 (08-A )
12 Honeoye Falls-Lima 372 (05-B )
13 East Aurora 375 (06-C )
14 Brighton 380 (05-B )
15 Tappan Zee 385 (01-B )
16 Xavier 390 (CHSAA)
17 Collegiate 391 (AIS )
18 Williamsville North 392 (06-A )
19 West Genesee 410 (03-A )
20 Sweet Home 430 (06-B )
21 Brewster 435 (01-B )
22 Webster Thomas 435 (05-A )
23 CBA-Albany 420 (02-B )
24 Monsignor Farrell 450 (CHSAA)
25 Mepham 451 (08-A )
26 Pearl River 455 (01-B )
27 Shaker 455 (02-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2013 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because
I wanted to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool enter the 2014 XC season as the top two teams in NY State, by a wide margin ... Both teams will be ranked nationally ... Both teams are favorites to return to NXN Nationals ... BUT both teams are NOT allowed to compete in the "NY State Meet" which is technically named the NYSPHSAA Championship Meet ... Only the winning team in each class in each section qualifies to compete in the "NY State Meet", and Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are both Class A teams in Section 3 ... Two of the 11 sections do not have any Class A teams, so only 9 Class A teams actually compete at "States".
Warwick Valley returns a solid core of runners ..... Just like previous years, St. Anthony's returns large group of runners with decent speed ratings.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.
.