Tully Runners - Girls Team Ranking Page for 2001
Individual 2001 XC
Team 2001 XC
Boys Rankings:
Individual 2001 XC
Team 2001 XC
The projected scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 30, 2001.
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Girls ... Class A ... CNS slight choice over FM, WG & Liverpool |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 CNS 56 CNS 47
2 FM 64 FM 72
3 West Genesee 75 West Genesee 86
4 Liverpool 79 Liverpool 94
5 Baldwinsville 128 Baldwinsville 127
6 Whitesboro 177 Whitesboro 157
7 Proctor 177 Proctor 184
8 Oswego 230 Central Square 226
9 Auburn 238 Oswego 241
10 Central Square 274 Auburn 259
11 Rome 296 Rome 261
12 Corcoran 354 Corcoran 331
13 Watertown 368 Watertown 390
14 ESM 376 ESM 407
15 Nottingham 447 Nottingham 425
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Post-Race
Comments ... The margin of victory for CNS was
a little larger than predicted, but that's because CNS ran a
real good race ... FM, West Genesee and Liverpool performed
well ... but this season belongs to CNS and some very good
team runners.
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Pre-Race Team Analysis ... This may be the best team match-up of the day ... Four teams have probabilities of winning ... Based on speed ratings and computer simulations, CNS is the slight favorite over FM, West Genesee and Liverpool ... all four teams raced against each at the OHSL Meet with CNS (81 points) ahead of FM (102), Liverpool (143) and West Genesee (156) ... in 100,000 computer race simulations, CNS won roughly 60% of the races with FM winning about 30% ... and in the race simulations, West Genesee and Liverpool were close in many races ... During the season, West Genesee did very well in their dual-meet encounters with these teams. So what does this mean? ... It means this is a close race ... CNS has been racing very well lately and deserves to be the favorite ... However, FM has also been improving and is definitely capable of winning ... West Genesee and Liverpool are longshots, but could surprise with an upset. Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Laurel Burdick (FM) is the clear favorite to win the race ... The top five finishers (not on the winning team) qualify for States, so knowing the winning team makes a difference is predicting the five individuals to qualify ... in addition Laurel Burdick, qualifiers from FM could include Brittany Crawford and Mackenzie Klump ... if CNS loses, Taryn Menard, Marie Parks, Laura Ewald and Caitlin Wlodarski have good chances of qualifying ... other runners with good chances of qualifying include Kerry Banazek (West Genesee), Meghan Nolan (Liverpool), Amanda Lalley (Central Sq), Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Kelly Murray (Whitesboro), and others. |
| Girls ... Class B ... Westhill |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Westhill 48 Westhill 39
2 Phoenix 71 Phoenix 70
3 New Hartford 80 Chittenango 88
4 Chittenango 96 New Hartford 96
5 Homer 137 Homer 130
6 Jamesville Dewitt 181 Jamesville Dewitt 185
7 Mexico 206 Oneida 193
8 Oneida 215 VVS 210
9 VVS 215 Fulton 240
10 Camden 259 Indian River 257
11 Cortland 289 Carthage 299
12 Carthage 311 Cortland ..inc
Mexico ..inc
Frankfort-Mohawk ..inc
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Post-Race
Comments ... Westhill ran very well on the
Tully course (just like they usually do) ... Chittenango ran
well to be third.
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| Pre-Race Team
Analysis ... Westhill is the choice over Phoenix and New
Hartford ... but it is possible that the score could be much
closer than predicted above ... Phoenix and New Hartford
have shown real improvement in recent weeks and could be peaking at
the right time ... However, Westhill has significant depth at
the #5 position, and that is real advantage in this race ... in
addition, Westhill runs well on the Tully course, so they are the
definite favorite to win ... but if Westhill throws in some mediocre
performances and Phoenix or New Hartford take another step up in
improvement, an upset is possible.
Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Tracey Brauksieck (Homer) is the clear choice to win the race ... Ashley Hughes (Phoenix), Katie Luker (New Hartford) and Kaitlin Rees (Oneida) are solid choices to qualify as individuals to States ... other possible qualifiers include Macrina Seals (Phoenix), Mary Cook (New Hartford), and a number of other closed rated runners (see the Girls Ranking Page). |
| Girls ... Class C ... Skaneateles dominates |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Skaneateles 27 Skaneateles 27
2 South Jefferson 71 Sauquoit Valley 130
3 Sauquoit Valley 135 Clinton 153
4 Holland Patent 168 Holland Patent 162
5 Jordan-Elbridge 170 South Jefferson 162
6 Clinton 200 Cato Meridian 175
7 Cato Meridian 215 Jordan-Elbridge 176
8 APW 238 Canastota 221
9 South Lewis 241 APW 232
10 Adirondack 268 South Lewis 241
11 CBA 273 Adirondack 277
12 Canastota 278 Cazenovia 306
13 Cazenovia 358 Cooperstown 315
14 Marcellus 377 CBA 323
15 Cooperstown 384 Herkimer 325
16 Ilion 388 Ilion 343
17 Herkimer 395 Mount Markham ..inc
18 Mount Markham 416 Solvay ..inc
19 Solvay 532 Hannibal ..inc
20 Hannibal 551 Lowville ..inc
Marcellus ..inc
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| Post-Race
Comments ... Skaneateles won easily as
expected ... the surprise in this race was South Jefferson (top
runner Nichole Lister did not finish the race ... of course, this
had a significant impact on the team scoring of the race) ... Clinton
ran well and finished third.
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| Pre-Race Team
Analysis ... Skaneateles is the clear choice to win this
race ... they handily won the OHSL Meet against tougher team
competition. South Jefferson is next best ... Sauquoit Valley has
been racing very well and improving, and could do better than the
predicted score above.
Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Nicole Lister (S Jeff) is the favorite to win with Lia Cross (Skan) a close second ... Jenny Ryan (Clinton) has been running very well, and is a solid choice to qualify for States along with Melissa Lister (S Jeff) and Jessica Lister (S Jeff) ... other runners with good chances of qualifying include Carly Calogero (Sauquoit), Rosemary Foran (Canastota), Sarah Betts (JE), Carrie Gates (Mt Markham), Jessica O'Neil (Marcellus), Kayla Nimmo (JE), Jacquelyn Rappa (Clinton), Kayla Curtis (Canastota), Connie Pernisi (APW), and Erica Bourgeois (Adirondack) ... could be a good race to determine the five individual State qualifiers! |
Girls
... Class D ... Beaver River over
Tully ..  |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Beaver River 28 Beaver River 21
2 Tully 40 Tully 40
3 Weedsport 107 Lafayette 130
4 Lafayette 129 Weedsport 131
5 Old Forge 166 Old Forge 141
6 Utica Notre Dame 187 Richfield Springs 147
7 Richfield Springs 190 Utica Notre Dame 169
8 New York Mills 201 Port Byron 198
9 Port Byron 239 Waterville 230
10 Pulaski 248
11 Oriskany 263 ** 14 incomplete teams ran
12 Waterville 306
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| Post-Race
Comments ... Beaver River ran very well and
deserves to be sectional champion ... Tully ran close to
predictions and is still the 4th best Class D team in the State ...
Tully's Emily Schmidt was final healthy and ready to run a big race,
but she lost a shoe in the first 400 meters of the race (a team-mate
accidentally stepped on the back of it) ... Emily still finished
13th in an excellent effort (and with a very sore foot).
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Pre-Race Team
Analysis ... Beaver River is a very good team and
will be tough to beat ... their top three runners (Lauren Moser,
Julie Emery and Adrienne Gagnier) are solid and their support
runners (Kendra Chamberlain, Kisa Ruiz, Jolene Munger, Amanda Zehr)
have run well ... Tully is a longshot, but there is a
possibility of winning ... if Tully can put together top
performances from their top runners on the same day (which hasn't
come close to happening all year), the team score could get very
close & very interesting depending on where selected runners
from other schools finish in relation to Tully and Beaver River
runners ... it's a longshot, but it could happen - after all, the
New Moon Phase begins Thursday Nov 1st
 ,
and the planets are aligning correctly
 .
Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... The individual race winner will likely be either Lauren Noble (Little Falls) or Lauren Moser (Beaver River) ... Noble just defeated Moser by nine seconds at the Adirondack Invite - my speed ratings have Moser ahead by 3 seconds (but that's not a predictive rating) ... in terms of the team score, it doesn't matter because Little Falls does not have a complete team (and incomplete team runners are excluded from the team score) ... Runners with good chances of qualifying as individuals to States include Jessica Portmess (Tully), Heather Roberts (Tully), Chelsea Gibson (Weedsport), Jessica McAnaney (Tully), Megan Dever (NY Mills), Ashley Brown (Lafayette), Taylor Leach (Old Forge), Kristin Edinger (OCS), and Emily Schmidt (Tully). |