Tully Runners - Boys Team Ranking Page for 2001

Girls Rankings:
  Individual 2001 XC

  Team 2001 XC

Boys Rankings:
  Individual 2001 XC
  Team 2001 XC

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November 4, 2001 ... Here are the pre-race projections & Actual Results for the 2001 Sectionals  

The projected scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 30, 2001.

 Boys ... Class A ... Liverpool over a good FM team

                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Liverpool            34      Liverpool              23
2   FM                   50      FM                     51
3   CNS                  80      Central Square        106
4   Central Square      140      CNS                   119
5   Watertown           144      Corcoran              187
6   Corcoran            191      Watertown             204
7   West Genesee        192      Auburn                207
8   Auburn              241      West Genesee          220
9   Rome                263      Rome                  226
10  Baldwinsville       272      Baldwinsville         243
11  Proctor             315      Proctor               305
12  Whitesboro          327      Oswego                326
13  Oswego              344      Whitesboro            329
14  Henninger           357      Nottingham            372
15  Nottingham          429      ESM                   396
16  ESM                 441      Henninger           ..inc
17  Fowler              506      Fowler              ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Liverpool's team depth was the key ... their top 7 finishers were only separated by 41 seconds, and that is outstanding ... with about 1200 meters remaining in the race, FM was very close scoring-wise to Liverpool, but the Liverpool runners ran very well over the final 1000 meters to win convincingly ... FM deserves credit because they also ran very well ... only a minute and 5 seconds separated their top seven runners and only 32 seconds separated the top five (same as Liverpool) ... Liverpool is just a little bit stronger ... hopefully, both teams get into the Federations.  CNS was hampered by some injuries, but Central Square raced very good to win 3rd place.


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Liverpool was an overwhelming favorite to win the Class A race a few weeks ago ... today, they are still the favorite, but the gap between Liverpool and FM has closed significantly ... the reason - FM has been improving.  Liverpool (53 points) beat FM (79) and CNS (190) at the OHSL Meet last Saturday ... Liverpool's strength is team depth (all seven runners) plus top runner Dan McKenna (starting a team score with a "1" is a nice advantage).  Two weeks ago, my ratings had FM trailing Liverpool by 35 points ... my computer simulations now have an average gap of roughly 16 points ... in a small percentage of "predictive" simulations, FM narrowly beat Liverpool by one or two points (I didn't expect to see that) ... In any case, Liverpool is still the favorite to win ... if FM can improve some more team-wise, it could be interesting.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Dan McKenna (Liverpool) is the favorite to win ... Dave Masse (FM), Bryan Buchanan (CNS) and Chris Nolan (Liverpool) appear closely rated for next three places.  Five individuals (not from the winning team) qualify to run at States ... the Class A Boys have a fairly large group runners closely rated that are capable of qualifying for States (see Boys Ranking Page) ... could be a good battle.


 Boys ... Class B ... Chittenango narrow choice over Skaneateles
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Chittenango          65      Chittenango            58
2   Skaneateles          77      Skaneateles            97
3   Cazenovia           138      Westhill              134
4   Westhill            143      Camden                158
5   Homer               185      Cazenovia             173
6   Jamesville Dewitt   185      Jamesville Dewitt     174
7   New Hartford        200      Fulton                201
8   Fulton              210      New Hartford          203
9   Camden              254      Homer                 217
10  Cortland            257      Cortland              231
11  Indian River        264      Oneida                252
12  Oneida              288      Phoenix               322
13  Phoenix             332      Indian River          330
14  VVS                 355      VVS                   335
15  Mexico              384      Mexico                413
16  Frankfort-Mohawk    440      Frankfort-Mohawk    ..inc
                                 Carthage            ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Chittenango ran close to projections ... Skaneateles did not have their best day, but they ran well enough to be second (Coach Reed made a good decision in moving the team from Class C to Class B) ... I clearly under-estimated Camden who performed much better than predicted (good job by their team).


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... My simulations make Chittenango a narrow choice over Skaneateles ... Skaneateles beat Chittenango in the Baldwinsville Invitational, but Chittenango beat Skaneateles in the B1/B2 Cross Over Meet (43-59) and at OHSL's (242-249) ... this is a close match-up and both teams are capable of winning ... should be a good race!

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Steve Corsello (Skaneateles) and Sam Morse (Camden) are the top Class B individual runners going into sectionals ... a fairly large group of closely rated runners could contend for the five State qualifying positions (see Boys Ranking Page) ... they include Jeff McAleer (Cazenovia), Tim Koch (Oneida) and many others.


 Boys ... Class C ... Sauquoit Valley 
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Sauquoit Valley      53      Sauquoit Valley        43
2   Holland Patent       99      Cooperstown            72
3   Cooperstown         101      Holland Patent        131
4   Mount Markham       156      Mount Markham         135
5   South Jefferson     174      CBA                   178
6   CBA                 181      Cato Meridian         194
7   Cato Meridian       213      Herkimer              204
8   Marcellus           238      Canastota             206
9   Herkimer            243      South Lewis           214
10  South Lewis         247      South Jefferson       225
11  Canastota           266      Marcellus             226
12  Adirondack          305      Adirondack            308
13  Jordan-Elbridge     311      Jordan-Elbridge       336
14  APW                 323      APW                   339
15  Bishop Ludden       418      Clinton               398
16  Clinton             429      Hannibal              444
17  Hannibal            458      Ilion                 491
18  Ilion               505      Solvay              ..inc
19  Solvay              586      Bishop Ludden       ..inc
                                 Lowville            ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Sauquoit Valley was the dominant team ... Cooperstown continued their recent improvement to be a very good 2nd-place team.


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the clear favorite to win Class C ... their top three runners (Allan Merrick, John Nicotera and Kevin Horvath) have been running very well all year (and none of their top five runners are seniors).  Holland Patent and Cooperstown have shown real nice improvement, and could get closer than the predicted score above.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Class C has a real good group of runners at the top end (see Boys Ranking Page) ... any one of them is capable of winning ... this group includes the three Sauquoit runners noted above, Dan Tickner (Bishop Ludden), Brad Ariola (APW), Jason Croniser (Adirondack), Andrew Lawson (Holland Patent), Bobby Perkins (South Lewis) and John Evans (CBA) ... several other runners could also contend for the individual State qualifying positions ... I expect a very good competitive individual race.


 Boys ... Class D ... Tully 
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Tully                38      Tully                  29
2   Beaver River         86      Beaver River          103
3   Little Falls         94      Little Falls          127
4   Pulaski             116      Pulaski               141
5   Lafayette           160      Onondaga              147
6   Utica Notre Dame    179      Lafayette             165
7   Weedsport           191      Weedsport             172
8   Onondaga            199      Utica Notre Dame      175
9   Port Byron          207      Richfield Springs     195
10  Richfield Springs   232      Port Byron            220
11  Sandy Creek         311      New York Mills        297
12  New York Mills      336      Sandy Creek           308
13  Westmoreland        385      Westmoreland          371
14  DeRuyter            386      DeRuyter              387
15  Faith Heritage      407      Faith Heritage      ..inc
16  Oriskany            449      Oriskany            ..inc
                                 Fabius-Pompey       ..inc
                                 Old Forge           ..inc
                                 Hamilton            ..inc
                                 MPH                 ..inc
                                 Watertown IHC       ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Tully had one of their best team races of the year which is indicated in the final actual score ... Onondaga ran better than predicted with some good individual efforts.


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Tully is the clear favorite to win ... the addition of Lopez Lomong certainly helped Tully, but even without Lomong, Tully would still be the favorite ... Sean Rienhardt, Lief Brunet, Tom Caracci, Toby Dornton, Jesse Burke and Bennett Hillenbrand have performed very well this season ... Tully must use this race as preparation for next week's encounter with East Rochester at States.   Beaver River and Little Falls have also run well this season ... both have shown significant improvement ... Little Falls beat Beaver River at the Adirondack Invitational by a score of 109-119 ... my simulations give a small advantage to Beaver River, so I expect a very close contest between these two ... Pulaski is not far back and could improve upon the prediction.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Lopez Lomong (Tully) is the favorite to win the race, but Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs) is not far behind ... actually, Seamon has been running well enough to challenge Lomong for the top spot.  Runners capable of qualifying for States include Dustin Goodfriend (Sandy Creek), Zane Buckingham (Beaver River), Justin Munger (Beaver River), Mick Wilson (OCS), Kevin McCormick (Notre Dame), Ander Kazmerski (Little Falls), Shane Reynolds (Pulaski), Ben Dever (NY Mills) and Randy Hadzor (Lafayette).




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