Girls Rankings:
Individual 2005 XC
Team 2005 XC
Boys Rankings:
Individual 2005 XC
Team 2005 XC
Girls & Boys Performance Database
Race Results
Running Links
Articles
Archives
Contact Info
Home
|
November 1, 2005 ...
Girls pre-race projections
for
the 2005 Section 3 Championships
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon
individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
November 1, 2005 ...
Actual scores added November 6, 2005
| Girls Class
AA - FM & CNS very close (maybe) |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 35 FM 39
2 CNS 37 CNS 47
3 West Genesee 80 West Genesee 68
4 Auburn 112 Liverpool 119
5 Liverpool 130 Auburn 130
6 Baldwinsville 178 Baldwinsville 176
7 Corcoran 231 Rome 209
8 Rome 238 Corcoran 224
9 Oswego 240 Oswego 246
10 Central Square 281 Central Square 256
11 Proctor 332
|
|
Post-Race Comments
... a very competitive
race ... a two-three finish by FM (plus improved FM
performances compared to OHSL) were key in the victory ...
Nice improved performance by West Genesee ...
Pre-Race Analysis ...This
race is interesting because it shows significant team
variability in computer simulated races ... As a brief
explanation of computer simulated races, I use the complete seasonal
speed ratings for every runner in a race and derive a profile (a
range distribution that the runner has been running with
emphasis on recent races) ... to simulate a race, the computer
randomly selects any point on each runner's profile range (using
a random number generator) and compiles the results for that
race ... since there are many possible random outcomes,
the simulation runs hundreds of thousands of random races and
saves the results ... when complete, the total simulation shows
the percentage of races won by any team and an average outcome
with team scores ... the overall simulation will include
individual race results where any team has great performances,
average performances and poor performances ... and it is
possible to compare one team's good to another team's poor
performance.
CNS beat FM at the
OHSL Meet by a score of 64-75 ... but based on the per-race
ratings, FM had a relatively poor performance at OHSL
(and that must be taken into consideration for subsequent races)
... Overall, FM wins a significant majority of the
simulations when CNS's Nicki Junod is excluded from the race (Nicki
is injured and out for season) - BUT CNS just beat FM
(without Nicki Junod) ... The predicted score above is a
compromise ... the overall simulation has FM winning
by more, but FM must perform to pre-OHSL performances to
ensure winning ... CNS deserves a lot of credit for
running well at OHSL, and I expect them to continue running well
at sectionals ... The question to be answered is "How well will
FM perform?".
West Genesee and Auburn
are solid choices for 3rd and 4th respectively (and that's how
they finished at OHSL)
Individual Race ... Elizabeth
McMahon (West Genesee) is the favorite to win the Class AA
race (she won OHSL handily) ... FM's Mackenzie Carter has
been running well (2nd at OHSL) ... At OHSL, CNS put two runners
(Alicia Finger and Katie Duerr) in front of Kristen
Taylor (FM) and that may be important in determining the
team title.
|
| Girls Class A
- Could be a Toss-Up?? |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Whitesboro 59 Mexico 47
2 Mexico 59 Whitesboro 59
3 Jamesville Dewitt 75 ESM 74
4 ESM 90 Jamesville-Dewitt 76
5 Cortland 113 Cortland 112
6 Watertown 168 Watertown 184
7 Carthage 210 Carthage 190
8 Fulton 240 Nottingham 220
9 Camden 254
10 Nottingham 256
|
|
Post-Race Comments
... Mexico
(running their full team) won handily
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Based strictly on the numbers, Mexico would be the
projected winner ... But Mexico's top runner (Ashlie Wilson) did
not run at OHSL (and Mexico was beaten by Jamesville-Dewitt) ...
So this race looks a bit puzzling in selecting a winner ... Whitesboro
has been running well and is certainly a logical contender ... Mexico
can definitely win, but there are question marks ... and JD
is close enough to surprise both with a top performance ... If
this were a horse race, I would not bet a dime.
Individual Race ... Leah
Andrianos (ESM) is the solid choice to win Class A with Margaret
Knight (Cortland) second.
|
| Girls Class
B
- Homer, New Hartford and Westhill |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Homer 73 New Hartford 58
2 New Hartford 77 Homer 69
3 Westhill 86 Westhill 92
4 VVS 115 VVS 95
5 Chittenango 138 Holland Patent 125
6 Holland Patent 144 Chittenango 134
7 South Jefferson 144 Cazenovia 148
8 Cazenovia 164 Marcellus 161
9 Marcellus 178 Phoenix 212
10 Phoenix 221 Oneida 293
11 Oneida 307
|
|
Post-Race Comments
... New Hartford
ran a very good team race to win ...
Pre-Race Analysis ...
The race simulations have Homer and New Hartford
winning a relatively even number of races ... But this race has
some sizeable "variability" in individual runner
profiles that results in some strange swings in the results (due
to inconsistent runner performances) ... Homer's
advantage is that top runners (Heather Wilson and Jen Davenport) should
finish one-two against the competitive teams (Homer is also
missing Caitlin McMahon who has not competed since early season)
... New Hartford is definitely capable of winning with good
performances ... and perennial champ Westhill could win if
the top two falter (which is always a possibility).
Individual Race ... Brittany
Burns (South Jefferson) is the solid favorite to win the
individual title with Heather Wilson (Homer) second.
|
| Girls Class
C - Sauquoit Valley is the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 61 Sauquoit Valley 43
2 Skaneateles 74 Skaneateles 85
3 Canastota 91 Canastota 93
4 CBA 123 CBA 111
5 Tully 126 Jordan-Elbridge 118
6 Jordan-Elbridge 141 Tully 146
7 Adirondack 175 Adirondack 181
8 Cato Meridian 221 Cato-Meridian 207
9 Sherburne-Earl 238 Sherburne-Earl 245
10 Clinton 253 Ilion 273
11 Ilion 296 Clinton 285
12 Hannibal 367
|
|
Post-Race Comments
... As expected,
Sauquoit Valley ran very well on the hilly South course (and
won easily). Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit
Valley has some team depth this year, and in combination
with two top runners (Samantha Stedman and Carly Calogero), Sauquoit
is the favorite to win Class C ... in addition, Sauquoit typically
excels on hard, hilly courses like South Jefferson ... Skaneateles
will need top performances from all five scorers, but it is
possible (and they do have a legitimate statistical chance of
winning) ... defending champ Canastota needs PR
performances ... Tully needs Lopezette Lomong and
Dominque Luka.
Individual Race ...
Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit) is the defending Section 3
and State Class C champion - her recent races have not been her
best, but she usually rises to the occasion ... Erica
Bourgeois (Adirondack) beat Samantha by two seconds at the
CSC League Meet, and Erica has been running very well ... Kelly
Coyne (Tully) ran a big PR at the OHSL Meet (and is learning
she can actually run a race faster if she runs like Coach Michelle
Franklin-Rauber tells her (Coach Rauber is an NCAA D3 champion
in both XC and track who ran for Jack Daniels at Cortland
State)) ... The Class C race will have some other good runners
vying for the five individual qualifying spots (Jen Pernisi
(APW), Kristen Fekete (CBA), Amy Schlachter
(Westmoreland), Leah McDowell (Canastota), Mckenzie
Clemens (Lowville), Hannah Waite (Skan), Rachel
Vaivoda (Skan) and others).
|
| Girls Class
D - Beaver River & Pulaski in close match-up |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 54 Beaver River 46
2 Pulaski 59 Pulaski 77
3 Weedsport 100 Weedsport 92
4 Onondaga 146 Onondaga 114
5 LaFayette 153 LaFayette 140
6 Fabius-Pompey 162 Fabius-Pompey 194
7 Sandy Creek 201 Cooperstown 208
8 Utica Notre Dame 230 Sandy Creek 215
9 Cooperstown 247 Old Forge 228
10 Little Falls 261 Oriskany 249
11 Old Forge 268 Notre Dame 250
12 Living Word 329 Little Falls 258
13 Oriskany 330
14 Port Byron 350
15 Poland 411
16 Waterville 450
17 West Canada Valley 462
18 New York Mills 467
19 Richfield Springs 506
|
|
Post-Race Comments
... Once again, Beaver
River proves they know how to win when it counts.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Defending State Class D champion Beaver River must run
well to retain their sectional title ... cousins Chelsea and
Alexis Nuffer (Beaver River) could go one-two in the team
competition against Pulaski, but Pulaski has a
pack of runners that could finish before the final Beaver
River scorer ... Kristen Helinger (Pulaski) is returning
from an injury and could be a key factor in the team scoring ...
Team scores are really dependent upon other teams in the race,
and this race is quite sensitive to placement of runners from
other teams ... Beaver River won a healthy percentage of
my race simulations, but both teams have shown inconsistencies -
and in combination with runners from other teams finishing in
strategic positions, this could be a very interesting final race
of the day.
Individual Race ... Chelsea
Nuffer (Beaver River) is capable of winning with a good
performance (but some seasonal inconsistencies open the door for
other runners including improving team mate Alexis Nuffer)
... Chelsea Gibson (Weedsport) has qualified for States
the past four years and is a solid choice to qualify again this
year ... Bobbi Steeprock (LaFayette) and Stephanie
Teale (Fabius) both ran well at OHSL ... Alissa Kersey
(Sandy Creek) has run well.
|
|