Girls Rankings:
Individual 2004 XC
Team 2004 XC
Boys Rankings:
Individual 2004 XC
Team 2004 XC
Girls & Boys Performance Database
Race Results
Running Links
Articles
Archives
Contact Info
Home
|
November 2, 2004 ...
Girls pre-race projections
for
the 2004 Section 3 Championships
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
November 2, 2004 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after
the meet
Actual Scores Added Nov 7, 2004
| Girls Class
AA
... CNS to confirm national ranking |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 CNS 26 CNS 28
2 FM 72 FM 69
3 West Genesee 76** West Genesee 80
4 Auburn 97 Auburn 99
5 Liverpool 135 Liverpool 110
6 Baldwinsville 152 Baldwinsville 160
7 Rome 216 Rome 230
8 Central Square 221 Central Square 236
9 Oswego 278 Oswego 241
10 Proctor 284 Henninger 296
11 Henninger 330
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
This race went very close to prediction for all teams.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
CNS is the overwhelming favorite to win - they are a deep
and talented team ... Improving FM finished 2nd at OHSL
and is the slightly favorite to finish second ... West
Genesee was missing top runner Elizabeth McMahon at OHSL due
to a knee injury - her status for sectionals is not clear, hence
the (**) next to West Genny's predicted score above (Nov 4
update - McMahon is expected to run) - with a
good race by McMahon (and the other WG runners), West Genesee
will likely finish second.
Individual Race ...
Marie Parks (CNS) was very impressive in winning the OHSL
race ... at her best, Nicki Junod (CNS) is capable of
running the Parks ... Elizabeth McMahon (West Genesee)
and Kristen Taylor (FM) are fairly evenly matched in
speed. |
| Girls Class A
... New Hartford peaking at right time |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 New Hartford 37 New Hartford 42
2 Whitesboro 53 ESM 56
3 ESM 59 Whitesboro 57
4 Corcoran 109 Corcoran 86
5 Nottingham 149 Nottingham 127
6 Watertown 153
7 Fulton 179
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
the race went reasonably close to expectations ... ESM
edged Whitesboro for second-place.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
New Hartford has been running consistently well over the
past few weeks - they beat South Jefferson at the Adirondack
Invite and won the TVL league meet convincingly over
Whitesboro.
Individual Race ...
Leah Andrianos (ESM) is the favorite to win the race. |
| Girls Class
B
... Westhill's depth too much for South Jefferson |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 49 Westhill 48
2 South Jefferson 81 South Jefferson 61
3 VVS 114 VVS 124
4 Cazenovia 166 Solvay 157
5 Chittenango 167 Chittenango 167
6 Homer 177 Homer 178
7 Solvay 181 Cazenovia 179
8 Holland Patent 204 Holland Patent 183
9 Jamesville Dewitt 213 Jamesville-Dewitt 191
10 Oneida 239 Oneida 199
11 Marcellus 240 Marcellus 220
12 Cortland 266 Phoenix 268
13 Phoenix 267 Camden 403
14 Camden 418
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
Westhill's depth was the key as expected - their pack
finished 5, 6, 8, 9 (in team places) ... South Jefferson
ran well with only 13 points separating them from Westhill.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
South Jefferson runners could finish one-two in the race,
but Westhill could then have four runners finish before
the third South Jeff runner finishes ... in relation to this
race, Westhill is also seven runners deep (meaning
somebody could have a bad race and another runner will make up
for it).
Individual Race ...
Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) is the overwhelming
favorite to win ... team mate Brittany Burns appears to
be next best, but with a good race, Amberlyn Mattice (Solvay)
could finish 2nd. |
| Girls Class
C
... Skaneateles looking to repeat |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Skaneateles 39 Canastota 50
2 Canastota 54 Skaneateles 59
3 Sauquoit Valley 70 Sauquoit Valley 78
4 CBA 148 Jordan-Elbridge 177
5 Jordan-Elbridge 186 CBA 190
6 Tully 207 Tully 195
7 Adirondack 208 Adirondack 200
8 Cato Meridian 245 Cato-Meridian 219
9 Sherburne-Earl 254 Cooperstown 236
10 Clinton 278 Sherburne-Earlville 248
11 Cooperstown 282 Westmoreland 248
12 Utica Notre Dame 282 Clinton 273
13 Westmoreland 292 Ilion 330
14 Ilion 301 Utica Notre Dame 340
15 Hannibal 410
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
This was the big upset of the day ... Canastota
came out and ran their best sectional race in several years ...
one of Skaneateles' top five runners (Rachel Vaivoda) was
not able to finish the race due to dehydration from an on-going
virus (however, I don't believe she was going finish high enough
to change the outcome on this day).
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Skaneateles is the defending State Class C champion, and
figures to repeat as sectional champion ... Canastota has
a solid group of runners, and on a great day, could make this
very interesting ... Sauquoit Valley does not appear to
have sufficient depth to win ... If Skaneateles runs up
to capabilities, they should win handily.
Individual Race ...
This could be a good match-up between Samantha Stedman
(Sauquoit) and Jessica O'Neill (Skaneateles) ... both are
capable of winning this race ... Stedman has the advantage in
consistency over the whole season. |
| Girls Class
D
... Beaver River takes first step towards State title |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 30 Beaver River 38
2 Pulaski 88 Pulaski 80
3 Weedsport 108 Weedsport 89
4 Onondaga 148 Onondaga 103
5 Fabius-Pompey 189 Fabius-Pompey 120
6 LaFayette 212** LaFayette 138
7 Remsen 261 Oriskany 202
8 Poland 265 New York Mills 210
9 Oriskany 273 Little Falls 220
10 New York Mills 291 Richfield Springs 249
11 Little Falls 292
12 Sandy Creek 303
13 Waterville 306
14 Old Forge 315
15 West Canada Valley 349
16 Richfield Springs 364
17 Living Word 428
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
Close to expectations ... But a fair number of incomplete teams
and no-show teams! Pre-Race Analysis ...
Beaver River is the #1 ranked Class D team in the State -
they figure to win handily in preparation for winning States the
following week ... Nov 4 update - some scores modified
because one of LaFayette's top runners (Stephanie Cornelius)
will not run due to tendonitis.
Individual Race ...
Nana Sang Bender (Onondaga) is currently the #1 rated Class
D runner in the State - she finished an impressive second at
OHSL ... Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) and Larkin
Kimmerer (Fabius-Pompey) have been running well and should
have a good race for 2nd and 3rd. |
|