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November 1, 2005 ...
Boys pre-race projections
for
the 2005 Section 3 Championships
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon
individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
November 1, 2005 ...
Actual scores added November 6, 2005
| Boys Class
AA - FM a solid favorite (with Liverpool second) |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 24 FM 21
2 Liverpool 45 Liverpool 49
3 CNS 101 CNS 97
4 Baldwinsville 112 Baldwinsville 117
5 Auburn 148 Auburn 163
6 Central Square 191 Central Square 173
7 Rome 196 Rome 197
8 Oswego 223 Oswego 226
9 West Genesee 244 West Genesee 249
10 Proctor 298 Proctor 285
11 Henninger 320 Henninger 306
12 Corcoran 351 Corcoran 326
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Post-Race Comments
... Race ran very close
to form Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius
is the solid favorite to beat a very good Liverpool team
- the real question being the margin of victory ... Liverpool
wants to impress the NTN selection committee and remain in
contention for possible selection to the national race ... FM
was training through the OHSL race, so it will be interesting to
see how well they perform at sectionals by comparison (they face
an interesting match-up with improving Saratoga at States
(assuming Saratoga can win sectionals and run top performances
at any course other than SPAC, which I think they can)).
Individual Race ...
Looks like another match-up between Ben White (Liverpool)
and the top FM guys (Tommy Gruenewald, Owen Kimple) ...
I'm not sure they will be running all-out in front because the main
object is to qualify for States next weekend at Queensbury ...
assuming FM wins the team title, other top contenders to qualify
for the five individual spots include Jake McAndrew
(Oswego), Colin Heenan (Liverpool), Chris Mason
(Auburn), Nick Scalione (Liverpool) and others.
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| Boys Class
A - Whitesboro a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Whitesboro 42 Whitesboro 31
2 ESM 81 Jamesville Dewitt 99
3 Jamesville Dewitt 110 ESM 104
4 Watertown 114 Watertown 111
5 Nottingham 128 Fulton 139
6 Mexico 134 Mexico 143
7 Fulton 144 Nottingham 177
8 Fowler 192 Cortland 188
9 Cortland 222 Fowler 216
10 Camden 274 Camden 238
11 Carthage 320
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Post-Race Comments
... Whitesboro won
convincingly as expected ...
Pre-Race Analysis ... Whitesboro
appears to have a big margin on ESM
Individual Race ... Jonathan Szczesniak
(Whitesboro), Dylan Hardwick (Watertown), Patrick Day
(Whitesboro), Parker Gazda (ESM), Evan Oustrich
(Mexico), and Jeff Sweeney (ESM) are the top rated
individuals.
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| Boys Class
B - Westhill favored over Marcellus & VVS |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 47 Westhill 55
2 Marcellus 67 VVS 65
3 VVS 79 Holland Patent 70
4 Holland Patent 92 Marcellus 84
5 New Hartford 164 Chittenango 145
6 Chittenango 173 South Jefferson 164
7 Cazenovia 177 Cazenovia 184
8 South Jefferson 182 New Hartford 189
9 Homer 246 Solvay 247
10 Solvay 264 Homer 308
11 Phoenix 286 Phoenix 324
12 Oneida 382
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Post-Race Comments
... another very good
Class B sectional race ... VVS and Holland Patent
made Westhill work for the victory ... Marcellus
may have gone out a little too fast for the South Jeff course
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Last year was a very tight match-up between Westhill, VVS
and Holland Patent ... a good Marcellus team joins
that trio this year as the top teams in Class B ... Westhill is the favorite because
they could run one-two-three in the race (that's a nice
advantage to state the obvious) ... In some
computer race simulations where Westhill has some
"off" performances, they can get beaten by other teams
(primarily Marcellus and VVS ...for a brief
description of a race simulation, see the Girls Class AA
predictions) ... Westhill will likely win the race if
they have decent
overall team performances (Westhill beat Marcellus by 116-147 at OHSL, but a race with 39 teams is very different than a
sectional race with many fewer teams).
Individual Race ... Tim
Hartnett (Westhill) is the solid favorite to win the
individual title ... other runners to consider are Greg
Pallotta (Westhill), Andrew Corcoran (Westhill), Wes
Moseman (Holland Patent), Luke Grasmeyer
(Chittenango), Curt Bell (Marcellus), Chris Stogsdill
(Marcellus) and Mike Esposito (Marcellus)
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| Boys Class
C - Tully a small favorite over Canastota |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Tully 55 Canastota 52
2 Canastota 64 Tully 62
3 Sauquoit Valley 76 Sauquoit Valley 98
4 Jordan-Elbridge 145 Jordan-Elbridge 146
5 Bishop Ludden 149 South Lewis 173
6 Skaneateles 191 Bishop Ludden 206
7 South Lewis 199 Skaneateles 242
8 Clinton 261 Clinton 247
9 Ilion 283 Cato-Meridian 275
10 APW 289 APW 279
11 CBA 295 Ilion 291
12 Mount Markham 320 Sherburne-Earl 293
13 Sherburne-Earl 345 CBA 296
14 Cato Meridian 352 Mount Markham 326
15 Adirondack 364 Adirondack 386
16 Westmoreland 405 Herkimer 503
17 Hannibal 470
18 Herkimer 541
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Post-Race Comments
... An excellent race
by Canastota to over-come Tully taking one-three in
the race ... Ryan Wilkinson (Canastota, 2nd in the race) split
the top Tully runners ... But the real key was Canastota's
pack-race tactic where they finished 11, 12, 13 and 14 ...
Tully's #4 and #5 were 22nd and 26th
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Tully is the slight favorite over an improving
Canastota ... there is enough runner variability is this
race to make the outcome in doubt ... 9-point margins can shrink
very quickly if any one runner has an "off" race OR a runner has
an exceptional performance (especially a #3, #4 or #5 runner),
and that happens in enough Class C race simulations to make this
race interesting ... And Sauquoit Valley is close enough
to surprise both Tully and Canastota with an
exceptional race (but that hasn't been the case in their recent
races) ... the performances of the #3, #4 or #5 runners will
probably determine the Class C team winner.
Individual Race ...
Scott VanderMolen (Tully) enters the race as the individual
favorite ... a fair number of runners could battle it out for
the runner-up spot including Cory White (Sauquoit),
Mike Heymann (Tully), Ryan Wilkinson (Canastota),
Kevin Bronson (South Lewis), Sean Curry (Bishop
Ludden), Mitch Boise (Sherburne-Earlville), Jordan
Sirtoli (Mount Markham), Cory Getter (Sauquoit) and
others.
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| Boys Class
D - Cooperstown & Beaver River |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Cooperstown 31 Cooperstown 34
2 Beaver River 39 Beaver River 56
3 Weedsport 125 Weedsport 112
4 Pulaski 134 Fabius-Pompey 118
5 Fabius-Pompey 145 Pulaski 140
6 New York Mills 146 New York Mills 145
7 Oriskany 236 LaFayette 217
8 Onondaga 288 Oriskany 222
9 LaFayette 298 Onondaga 228
10 Little Falls 298 Little Falls 316
11 Utica Notre Dame 314 Utica Notre Dame 317
12 Old Forge 341 Old Forge 344
13 MPH 356 Living Word 390
14 Living Word 386 West Canada Valley 393
15 Poland 415 MPH 405
16 Remsen 421
17 Waterville 459
18 West Canada Valley 472
19 Sandy Creek 479
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Post-Race Comments
... Cooperstown ran
very well to win convincingly ...
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is battle between Cooperstown and Beaver River
... Based on all available ratings, Cooperstown is the
favorite ... BUT one of the Cooperstown scorers (Stephen
Scrafford) has not run in recent races due to an injury (he
expected to run at sectionals) - in his absence (or he is unable
to run effectively), the race is absolutely even-up - it's a
pick-em.
Individual Race ...
Joshua Edmonds (Cooperstown) is the overwhelming favorite to
win the individual sectional title (Joshua is one of the
favorites to win the State Meet at Queensbury) ... Other runners
to qualify as individuals for States will depend on which team
wins (either Cooperstown or Beaver River) ... Mike Trendell
(Waterville) is a clear choice to qualify for States.
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