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November 2, 2004 ...
Boys pre-race projections
for
the 2004 Section 3 Championships
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
November 2, 2004 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after
the meet ...
Actual Scores Added Nov 7, 2004
| Boys Class
AA ... Another FM sweep is possible |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 15 FM 15
2 CNS 86 Liverpool 75
3 Liverpool 92 CNS 100
4 Central Square 145 Central Square 119
5 Auburn 187 Oswego 182
6 Baldwinsville 189 Rome 196
7 Oswego 193 Auburn 196
8 Rome 209 Baldwinsville 205
9 Proctor 242 West Genesee 228
10 West Genesee 259 Henninger 248
11 Henninger 260 Proctor 261
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
FM swept the race as expected in another excellent
performance ... Liverpool ran well, and finished 2nd in
the merged scoring which could put them in Federation
consideration ... Auburn's team score was lowered when
one of their runners was injured during the race and did not
finish. Pre-Race Analysis ...
FM is the #1 ranked team in the nation and is preparing
for upcoming races at States, Federations and the new Nike Team
National Invitational ... they basically trained through the
OHSL Championships ... Coach Aris said the team was coming off
two weeks of the most intense training of the season.
Individual Race ...
Based on prior races, FM could sweep the top five places
again ... Tommy Gruenewald and Jared Burdick ran
excellent races at OHSL and are the favorites to finish one-two
... the other FM runners (Owen Kimple, Andrew McCann
and John Heron) also look strong ... Jake McAndrew
(Oswego), Ben Adams (Central Square) and Ben White
(Liverpool) are capable of challenging for top five places, but
their primary concern will be to finish as one of the top five
individuals not on the winning team. |
| Boys Class
A ... Corcoran looking good |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Corcoran 40 Corcoran 24
2 Nottingham 75 Nottingham 70
3 ESM 95 Whitesboro 97
4 New Hartford 95 New Hartford 99
5 Whitesboro 105 Watertown 101
6 Watertown 106 ESM 103
7 Fulton 172 Fulton 170
8 Fowler 213
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
Corcoran won convincingly as expected with Nottingham
second (Nottingham has had a very good season) ... the expected
tight race between the next four teams was close (only a six
point spread ... the predicted spread was 10 points).
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Corcoran has four runners ranked in the top ten Class A
runners and appears to be the solid favorite ... Nottingham
has run well this season. |
| Boys Class
B ... Three-Way TOO CLOSE TO CALL |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 VVS 69 Holland Patent 57
2 Westhill 69 Westhill 60
3 Holland Patent 69 VVS 63
4 Chittenango 130 Homer 126
5 Homer 138 Marcellus 127
6 Cazenovia 145 Chittenango 139
7 Marcellus 147 Cazenovia 182
8 Jamesville Dewitt 194 Jamesville-Dewitt 200
9 Cortland 300 Solvay 284
10 Solvay 306 South Jefferson 291
11 South Jefferson 307 Cortland 296
12 Camden 323 Camden 349
13 Indian River 376 Oneida 378
14 Phoenix 392
15 Oneida 451
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
an excellent competitive race, and very close as expected
...
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This was the most interesting race for running computer
simulations because it is very close ... VVS beat
Holland Patent by only one point at the Adirondack
Invitational ... Westhill finished a disappointing 5th at
OHSL, but they are capable of running much better (and can be
expected to run better at sectionals) ... VVS has the
home course advantage, but I'm not sure how important that is.
In terms of the computer
simulations, this is one of the few races I spent much time
evaluating ... I ran simulations using predictive algorithms,
averaging algorithms and distribution algorithms (most
simulations ran 100,000 or more individual race simulations with
compiled results ... Overall, Westhill, VVS and
Holland Patent each won at least 20-25 percent of the
simulations ... Holland Patent did especially well in the
predictive simulations that attempt to predict how fast a runner
will run in his next race (but these have a higher uncertainty
level) ... But in total, the results indicate these three
teams are statistically even-up ... if this was a horse
race, each team would have the same odds of winning.
Individual Race ...
This seems to be a key for Westhill's probability of winning ...
Kevin Blaich (Westhill) is the favorite to win ... the
simulations indicate Westhill does best when Tim Hartnett
finishes 2nd to Blaich ... Brent Powers (Holland Patent)
is a definite threat to finish 2nd ... (of course, most races
this close are determined by the #4 and #5 runners) ... This
should be a great race to watch. |
| Boys Class
C ... Sauquoit (#1 in NYS) over Tully (#2 in NYS) |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 48 Sauquoit Valley 53
2 Tully 67 Tully 56
3 Canastota 110 Jordan-Elbridge 109
4 Jordan-Elbridge 123 Canastota 134
5 Cooperstown 139 Cooperstown 151
6 CBA 223 South Lewis 191
7 Ilion 255 CBA 203
8 Cato Meridian 262 Cato-Meridian 226
9 South Lewis 267 Clinton 244
10 Skaneateles 277 Sherburne-Earlville 252
11 Clinton 288 APW 258
12 APW 299 Bishop Ludden 305
13 Sherburne-Earl 312 Adirondack 391
14 Bishop Ludden 335 Westmoreland 401
15 Utica Notre Dame 345 Utica Notre Dame 409
16 Mount Markham 451 Hannibal 411
17 Adirondack 462
18 Westmoreland 480
19 Hannibal 485
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
Most of the Tully guys ran their best race of the year
and they missed winning by only three points ... Unfortunately,
neither Sauquoit nor Tully was at full strength -
one of Tully's top five runners (Scott Vandermolen) was sick
with a virus and did not finish in the top five ... several
Sauquoit runners were recovering from viruses and did not run as
well as normal - in addition, Sauquoit's Steve Stedman (their #2
runner) was unable to finish the race which allowed the score to
get very tight ... Jordan-Elbridge ran well and finished
third. Pre-Race Analysis ...
Sauquoit Valley and Tully are the top two Class C
teams in the State, but only one gets to go (and be the favorite
to win States) ... Sauquoit Valley was the State champion
in 2002 and is the favorite to repeat in 2004 ... The Tully
guys deserve much credit for performing above expectations
in the post-Lomong-Luka era ... Tully ran well at OHSL in
finishing 3rd behind FM and CNS (and beating Liverpool and
Westhill) and they seem to be peaking at the right time ...
Overall however, Sauquoit is very strong with top runners
John Nicotera and Steven Stedman leading the way.
Individual Race ...
Josh Arthur (South Lewis) is the solid favorite - he won
this race last year and has been running very well in 2004 ...
John Nicotera (Sauquoit) and improving Matt Polus
(Cooperstown) look good for 2nd and 3rd. |
| Boys Class
D ... Another Too Close to Call |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 65 Beaver River 47
2 Pulaski 65 Pulaski 64
3 New York Mills 88 Weedsport 120
4 Old Forge 118 Oriskany 134
5 Oriskany 132 Old Forge 140
6 Weedsport 170 New York Mills 161
7 Onondaga 179 LaFayette 169
8 Fabius-Pompey 199 Onondaga 178
9 LaFayette 204 Fabius-Pompey 201
10 Living Word 263 Living Word 241
11 Little Falls 317 Little Falls 272
12 Poland 320 MPH 343
13 Remsen 365
14 MPH 408
15 Sandy Creek 430
|
| Post Race
Comment ...
Beaver River won with a very good effort.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is another close race ... Pulaski and Beaver River seem to
be even-up ... and New York Mills is close enough to be a threat
if their #5 runner has a big race ...
Individual Race ...
This looks like a close match-up between Justin Munger
(Beaver River) and Mark McCaskey (Richfield Springs) ...
McCaskey beat Munger by 4 seconds at the Adirondack Invite. |
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