Tully Runners 

Girls Rankings:
  Individual 2003 XC

  Team 2002 XC

Boys Rankings:
  Individual 2003 XC
  Team 2002 XC

Girls & Boys XC Performance Database

Tully Invitational Info

Race Results

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Contact Info


Please READ THIS To Better Understand The Speed Ratings:

Here are some things to remember ... (1) the ratings shown below are a combination of the overall seasonal performances of each runner [they consider more than just the last race or two if I have enough of your invitational race results], (2) head-to-head competitions are not considered in any way ... the only consideration is how fast a runner has run his or her races (3) duel meets are not considered.

 [Read This Article for More Information] ... [And this ... Speed Rating]

But here is the simplified bottom-line of what my speed rating numbers mean: ... they are really a measure of the probability (chance) of where runners will finish within a group of runners. I know this sounds a bit abstract, but I think some examples can demonstrate the meaning. Consider two runners with identical speed ratings of 170 (or within a point or two of each other) ... this means they have a 50/50 chance of beating each within that group; if you ran the race 1000 times, each runner would beat the other 500 times on average. When the point-spread is 5 points, the runner with the higher rating has roughly a 60/40 chance of beating the other ... so it doesn't surprise me when a runner with the lower rating wins on occasion because there's a chance it will happen!  The underlying concept of my method is: "Faster runners usually beat slower runners".  If I determine how fast you have run relative to other runners, I can estimate your chances of winning.


Developed and maintained by Bill Meylan