National Pre-Season XC 2024
GIRLS Teams - National 2024
Bill Meylan (July 25, 2024) ... updated July 26
- Girls - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2023 XC season into 2024
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN National & Regional races or the RunningLane Championship
- ... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
- ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once
the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season
.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2024 race results are what count.
NOTE ...
This year, I manipulated many more "overall ratings" based on track
performances.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2024
... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 30 teams
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Mountain Vista CO 135 Southwest
2 Air Academy CO 140 Southwest
3 Buchanan (CS) CA 250 California
4 Trabuco Hills (SS) CA 280 California
5 Niwot CO 300 Southwest
6 Santiago Corona (SS) CA 305 California
7 JSerra Catholic (SS) CA 305 California ** updated
8 Ventura (SS) CA 310 California
9 Bethlehem NY 320 New York
10 Lone Peak UT 325 Southwest
11 Romeo MI 330 Midwest
12 Barrington IL 350 Midwest
13 Cardinal Gibbons NC 365 Southeast
14 Union Catholic Reg NJ 385 Northeast
15 Downers Grove North IL 400 Midwest
16 Lincoln HS OR 410 Northwest
17 Webb School of Knoxville TN 420 Southeast
18 Brentwood High TN 430 Southeast
19 East Aurora NY 430 New York
20 Jesuit Portland OR 435 Northwest
21 Timpview UT 460 Southwest
22 Flower Mound TX 480 South
23 Wayzata MN 490 Heartland
24 Champlain Valley Union VT 495 Northeast
25 Fossil Ridge CO 495 Southwest
26 Saratoga Springs NY 500 New York
27 Oyster River NH 505 Northeast
28 Prospect IL 510 Midwest
29 Chaparral CO 515 Southwest
30 Assumption KY 530 Southeast
31 North Allegheny PA 530 Northeast
** JSerra score updated July 26 due to previous
accidental exclusion of a runner
|
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Cherry Creek CO Southwest
Mount Si WA Northwest
Aledo TX South
Auburn AL Southeast
Hilliard Davidson OH Midwest
Father Tolton Reg Cath MO Midwest
The Woodlands TX South
St. Francis (CC) CA California
Summit OR Northwest
Rogers AR South
Naperville (North) IL Midwest
Timberline (Boise) ID Northwest
Harpeth Hall School TN Southeast
Shenendehowa NY New York
Lucas Lovejoy TX South
Carmel IN Midwest
Gallatin MT Northwest
Highland High AZ Southwest
James W. Robinson VA Southeast
Bridgeland TX South
Johnston IA Heartland
Southlake Carroll TX South added
Chatham (Glenwood) IL Midwest
Dallas Center-Grimes IA Heartland
Pleasant Valley IA Heartland
Owasso OK South
|
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2023 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (more than in the past)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... Mountain Vista and Air Academy are the favorites based on returning runners and speed ratings plus the best #5 runner ratings ... Mountain Vista is a very slight favorite, but it looks basically like a toss-up between Mountain Vista and Air Academy.
- The speed rating numbers place 4 California teams in the top 7 ... That surprised me a bit, but team scoring is determined by who is racing and strength of those teams at various positions, and the California teams appear very good ... The big concern is that the California teams did not race especially well at last year's NXN ... and the conditions at the Glendoveer could be similar again this year ... But that is a factor for betting at the time of NXN ... Trabuco Hills runner Holly Barker raced exceptionally well at NXN as an individual (151 speed rating).
- Not surprising, 4 Southwest
teams are in the top 9 ... The Southwest took the top 4 spots at NXN
last year ... New York has 3 teams in the top 26
... And I suspect the team Romeo at #11 will surprise
some viewers.
- ... Pre-Season Rankings are only good for identifying teams of potential ability to watch once the season starts ... At this point, my method can exclude good teams that will be ranked throughout the XC season, BUT those teams can be identified during the season (which is much more important than pre-season).
- ... Very little separates
many of the
lower-ranked teams
... Most ranking placement was determined by speed-rating simulations
(which varied quite a bit) ... One new "good" runner on most teams
or one scorer having an "off" race made a significant difference
in ranking position ... So I made a Best-Guess.
Note - The overall incoming speed rating number (the first number for each runner below) is a based on last year's seasonal speed ratings (the numbers in the brackets [ ] that are in sequential order with the most recent first) ... PLUS manipulation by me looking at track performances for nearly all runners.
#1 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 3rd at NXR Southwest last year and then finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals ... They return all 7 runners from those races ... In addition, Mountain Vista gets a quality transfer (Brenna Jorde from IMG in Florida), and has some team depth ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
140 -- Keeghan Edwards -- 12 -- [ 132 ]
138 -- Juliet Frum -- 12 -- [ 138 132 98 131 130 126 119 124 ]
137 -- Claire Guiberson -- 11 -- [ 136 139 129 120 123 127 120 114 101
72 ]
135 -- Peyton Adams -- 12 -- [ 139 137 97 129 133 129 115 119 ]
129 -- Zoe Brandt -- 12 -- [ 118 121 129 128 123 117 119 108 ]
124 -- Brenna Jorde -- 11 -- [ 120 121 116 111 ]
118 -- Riley Combe -- 12 -- [ 121 119 99 90 117 107 94 ]
#2 - Air Academy CO
... Air Academy is the defending NXN
National Champion ... They were 2nd at NXR Southwest (beaten by
Niwot) ... Air Academy was the Colorado State 5A
Champion ... Air Academy returns 6 of 7 runners from NXN
Nationals (but they lose their #1 scorer Bethany Michalak who finished
2nd overall to Niwot's Addison Ritzenhein) ... It seems relatively close
between Mountain Vista and Air Academy
...
Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available
[2023 seasonal ratings]:
141 -- Tessa Walter -- 12 -- [ 140 134
140 139 138 144 132 ]
134 -- Emily Beers -- 12 -- [ 134 131 133 132 132 132 126 126 106 ]
134 -- Chamorra Cooper -- 10 -- [ 134 131 135 126 131 128 115 111 ]
133 -- Mariah Hook -- 10 -- [ 138 124 138 108 121 124 112 101 ]
133 -- Jordan Banta -- 11 -- [ 134 127 113 121 138 130 118 ]
121 -- Lauren Myers -- 11 -- [ 124 121 116 115 115 123 102 88 ]
113 -- Olivia Chura -- 12 -- [ 114 110 116 112 92 98 82 ]
#3 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 3rd in 2022 ... Buchanan returns all 5 scorers from NXN Nationals (and one of their top runners had an off race at NXN) ... They finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge, and were selected as an "At-Large" NXN team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
134 -- Elliana Lomeli -- 12 -- [ 68 138
137 ]
131 -- Kynzlee Buckley -- 11 -- [ 121 126 129 123 127 ]
131 -- Molly Sundgren -- 10 -- [ 128 130 125 124 121 122 ]
130 -- Avery Hutchison -- 12 -- [ 122 127 122 117 122 114 ]
126 -- Tayler Torosian -- 11 -- [ 120 132 124 117 107 130 ]
124 -- Sierra Cornett -- 12 -- [ 124 122 114 120 126 ]
101 -- Elizabeth Dimitrashchuk -- 12 -- [ 90 102 100 ]
#4 - 4 - Trabuco Hills (SS) CA ... Trabuco Hills finished 4th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return their top 4 scorers from the State Meet ... In addition, Trabuco Hills is reported to be getting a transfer (Sophie Guilfoile from Portola CA), and she is included below (but I could not confirm the transfer) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
150 -- Holly Barker -- 12 -- [ 151 148
146 144 148 ]
130 -- Skylar Watts -- 11 -- [ 119 133 126 125 110 ]
130 -- Anna Desormeau -- 11 -- [ 128 121 102 108 ]
127 -- Millie Bayles -- 11 -- [ 113 123 125 122 114 ]
120 -- Sophie Guilfoile -- 12 -- [ 104 119 ]
104 -- Kahli Dugan -- 12 -- [ 104 ]
#5 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished a very good 2nd to Air Academy at last year's NXN Nationals and 2nd to Saratoga Springs at NXN Nationals in 2022 ... Last year, Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship and won NXR Southwest ... Niwot loses 4 runners from NXN Nationals, but return 2 of their top 3 (including NXN Champion Addison Ritzenhein) ... Niwot typically has some team depth and could re-load enough to be competitive (and I'm giving them credit for that) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
159 -- Addison Ritzenhein -- 11 -- [ 164
150 152 155 152 142 ]
135 -- Anna Prok -- 11 -- [ 136 130 120 ]
126 -- Avalon Beltran -- 11 -- [ 100 127 129 134 125 ]
118 -- Alena Kasanicky -- 12 -- [ 118 92 92 117 82 ]
117 -- Elise Hagen -- 10 -- [ 114 110 110 99 91 96 ]
114 -- Scarlett Parks -- 10 -- [ 105 105 91 ]
106 -- Elsza Bergen -- 10 -- [ 101 94 87 83 ]
#6 - Santiago Corona (SS) CA ... Santiago Corona finished 2nd in California State Meet Merge last year to qualify for NXN Nationals ... They finished 19th at NXN Nationals ... Santiago Corona returns 6 of 7 runners (including their top 3 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
154 -- Rylee Blade -- 12 -- [ 127 154 157
155 154 142 ]
141 -- Braelyn Combe -- 11 -- [ 120 138 137 137 133 ]
130 -- Taylor Davis -- 11 -- [ 117 133 125 119 133 113 ]
124 -- Audrey Buckley -- 12 -- [ 100 120 114 110 111 114 102 ]
110 -- Kinsley Whitecavage -- 11 -- [ 97 109 107 110 105 102 93 ]
105 -- Anna Hill -- 10 -- [ 104 94 ]
105 -- Jaela Jaffe -- 11 -- [ 77 102 97 91 100 89 ]
#7 - JSerra Catholic (SS) CA ... JSerra Catholic won the California State Meet Merge last year (beating Santiago Corona by one point) ... JSerra Catholic finished 13th at NXN Nationals (they finished 21st at NXN in 2022) ... JSerra Catholic had no seniors compete at NXN, but one runner (#2 scorer Summer Wilson) has transferred to another school ... It has also been reported that a Dana Hills runner (Annie Ivarsson) may be transferring to JSerra Catholic and her speed ratings (in the 120s to 130) suggest a better ranking than #13 ... Update (July 26) - Top runner Sophie Polay was accidentally removed from race simulations used in prior posting ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
137 -- Sophie Polay -- 12 -- [ 135 139
136 135 133 ]
131 -- Kaylah Tasser -- 11 -- [ 117 133
135 125 132 128 117 ]
131 -- Brynn Garcia -- 12 -- [ 111 129 124 131 124 132 ]
126 -- Reese Holley -- 10 -- [ 103 116 113 124 128 123 113 ]
124 -- Chloe Elbaz -- 11 -- [ 111 113 113 111 123 ]
115 -- Hutton Nelligan -- 10 -- [ 112 105 ]
112 -- Anne Elise Packard -- 12 -- [ 102 93 101 86 127 110 ]
109 -- Hayden Kroger -- 10 -- [ 107 106 91 89 104 ]
#8 - Ventura (SS) CA ... Ventura did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 5th in the California State Meet Merge ... Ventura returns 6 of 7 runners from the State Meet (including their top 4 scorers) ... In addition, Ventura reported to be getting a transfer (Sophia Grant from Newbury Park CA), and she is included below (but I could not confirm the transfer ... Excluding her would drop Ventura in these projections) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
157 -- Sadie Engelhardt -- 12 -- [ 142
156 159 157 156 ]
129 -- Melanie True -- 11 -- [ 131 127 119 118 ]
127 -- Aelo Curtis -- 11 -- [ 120 115 127 131 128 ]
123 -- Tiffany Sax -- 12 -- [ 121 122 123 ]
123 -- Sophia Grant -- 11 -- [ 124 112 108 124 104 ]
106 -- Bailey Burman -- 12 -- [ 99 98 96 85 ]
96 -- Sophia Denzler -- 12 -- [ 97 94 87 95 ]
#9 - Bethlehem NY ... Bethlehem finished a very good 11th at NXN Nationals last year (and were 17th in 2022) ... They finished 2nd to Saratoga at NXR New York & the NY Federation Championship ... They return 6 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
135 -- Logan Kuhn -- 11 -- [ 128 120 128
128 125 127 117 120 124 124 121 ]
131 -- Charlotte O'Meara -- 12 -- [ 113 116 120 124 131 119 128 116 118
113 ]
130 -- Anna Chrapowitzky -- 10 -- [ 128 123 120 113 122 117 130 126 125
121 ]
128 -- Katherine Bannigan -- 12 -- [ 122 122 121 128 127 130 120 122 119
123 115 ]
119 -- Tess McNamara -- 9 -- [ 116 109 109 117 125 117 117 115 109 105
98 ]
105 -- Olivia Deer -- 11 -- [ 94 97 85 107 100 98 94 84 ]
103 -- Sidney Graham -- 9 -- [ 100 97 89 102 104 101 105 97 101 93 ]
#10 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 4th at NXN Nationals both last year and in 2022 ... Lone Peak was 4th at NXR Southwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team to NXN Nationals ... Lone Peak returns 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
135 -- Maya Bybee -- 10 -- [ 130 129 133
120 122 121 124 119 ]
134 -- Boston Bybee -- 12 -- [ 124 133 131 123 117 128 122 ]
124 -- Zoey Nilsson -- 11 -- [ 121 122 115 117 118 96 98 ]
124 -- Anna Bybee -- 11 -- [ 119 103 125 112 118 98 104 111 ]
120 -- Brielle Nilsson -- 11 -- [ 116 118 98 115 104 108 ]
112 -- Ava McMurtrey -- 12 -- [ 91 107 115 96 112 109 ]
108 -- Ashley Favero -- 12 -- [ 98 109 104 84 71 ]
#11 - Romeo MI ... Romeo finished 8th at NXR Midwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Michigan State Division 1 Championship (beating Ann Arbor Pioneer by 65 points who were led by Rachel Forsyth) ... Romeo finished 8th at NXR Midwest, but were missing their #3 scorer from the State Meet ... Romeo returns their top 6 runners from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
141 -- Annie Hrabovsky -- 10 -- [ 141 140
129 ]
132 -- Natalia Guaresimo -- 11 -- [ 127 128 127 ]
128 -- Emmerson Clor -- 11 -- [ 126 123 122 ]
125 -- Lillian Deskins -- 12 -- [ 123 120 100 ](but were missing their
#3 sc
118 -- Olivia Purdy -- 12 -- [ 108 112 101 ]
105 -- Violet Hrabovsky -- 12 -- [ 97 ]
75 -- Maya Muskan -- 11 -- [ 51 ]
#12 - Barrington IL ... Barrington finished 4th at NXR Midwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Barrington returns 5 of 7 runners (including their top 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
143 -- Mia Sirois -- 10 -- [ 139 133 131
117 115 110 ]
140 -- Scout Storms -- 12 -- [ 141 139 140 135 135 129 ]
123 -- Abby Lewis -- 11 -- [ 121 107 112 119 111 ]
121 -- Sabrina Roach -- 12 -- [ 111 117 117 111 107 101 ]
112 -- Angelica Hill -- 10 -- [ 97 112 81 ]
105 -- Viktoria Higgins -- 12 -- [ 91 94 ]
98 -- Samantha Rowley -- 12 -- [ 88 98 ]
#13 - Cardinal Gibbons NC ... Cardinal Gibbons finished 4th at NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They return their top 5 scorers from NXR Southeast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
140 -- Hannah Rae Shaffer -- 12 -- [ 128
141 136 139 141 142 135 ]
132 -- Addy Mitchell -- 12 -- [ 117 131 117 132 124 119 ]
122 -- Katherine Pagorek -- 12 -- [ 115 120 116 122 122 113 ]
122 -- Maggie Whitham -- 11 -- [ 117 121 114 123 126 123 121 ]
119 -- Ina Lazarczyk -- 12 -- [ 110 121 119 120 119 111 ]
105 -- Lucia West -- 12 -- [ 82 83 72 75 ]
95 -- Kira Bautz -- 12 -- [ 90 95 92 83 ]
#14 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Northeast ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXN (losing the #2 and #4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
147 -- Paige Sheppard -- 10 -- [ 135 148
145 141 136 135 141 130 ]
132 -- Cayleigh Kaiser -- 10 -- [ 127 129 121 119 118 121 116 ]
122 -- Kayla Devine -- 10 -- [ 66 119 120 110 117 116 ]
120 -- Ella Solorzano -- 11 -- [ 105 118 112 119 115 103 107 108 ]
112 -- Emmy O'Hearn -- 11 -- [ 93 110 105 104 104 87 99 95 ]
105 -- Sophia Thompson -- 10 -- [ 105 89 ]
100 -- Jimmiea King -- 11 -- [ 82 86 74 ]
#15 - Downers Grove North IL ... Downers Grove North IL finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd at NXR Midwest ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXN (losing the #2 scorer) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
133 -- Lily Eddington -- 11 -- [ 124 131
129 125 119 125 117 ]
124 -- Alayna Todnem -- 12 -- [ 119 127 126 111 109 117 111 92 ]
124 -- Ava Gilley -- 12 -- [ 122 123 121 110 108 118 113 91 ]
123 -- McKenzie Willard -- 12 -- [ 102 121 118 125 123 109 ]
118 -- Audrey Casten -- 12 -- [ 83 109 118 98 ]
106 -- Hannah Renner -- 12 -- [ 105 111 100 100 77 101 83 ]
83 -- Jadyn Wood -- 12 -- [ 73 73 82 85 71 ]
#16 - Lincoln HS OR ... Lincoln HS finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Northwest ... They return 4 scorers from NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
140 -- Ellery Lincoln -- 10 -- [ 121 130
132 135 139 131 ]
129 -- Sophia Malinoski -- 12 -- [ 110 125 124 127 122 107 ]
126 -- Elyse Henriksen -- 11 -- [ 112 112 116 116 120 113 ]
119 -- Sam Reid -- 12 -- [ 102 104 105 103 87 92 79 ]
110 -- Reiko Nitta -- 12 -- [ 71 69 88 82 ]
100 -- Emma Horspool -- 12 -- [ 85 66 53 ]
100 -- Mathilde Dettling -- 11 -- [ 76 73 74 ]
#17 - Webb School of Knoxville TN ... Webb School of Knoxville finished 3rd at NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals (however, they finished 20th at NXN Nationals in 2022) ... They return 5 of 7 from NXR Southeast (including the top 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
135 -- Carolina Areheart -- 11 -- [ 126
130 121 101 89 ]
133 -- Jazzlyn Garmer -- 11 -- [ 120 123 127 129 123 ]
129 -- Calysta Garmer -- 11 -- [ 109 119 123 122 111 ]
120 -- Kristina Weaver -- 12 -- [ 119 120 111 120 119 ]
99 -- Ariana Vargas -- 10 -- [ 84 98 97 84 ]
99 -- Gaby BAINBRIDGE -- 9 -- [ 72 51 ]
75 -- Chloe Wilson -- 12 -- [ 63 65 ]
#18 - Brentwood High TN ... Brentwood High School finished 6th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 5 of 7 runners (including the top 4 scorers from NXR) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
130 -- Abi Cobb -- 12 -- [ 128 118 107
112 115 110 114 ]
124 -- Rachel Haws -- 12 -- [ 123 113 102 123 120 122 112 ]
122 -- Lauren Banovac -- 11 -- [ 121 116 116 115 115 111 ]
120 -- Lydia Cromwell -- 12 -- [ 120 114 113 107 115 122 114 ]
120 -- Lia Banovac -- 11 -- [ 105 125 117 117 116 ]
105 -- Talya Williams -- 10 -- [ 98 96 100 89 88 74 ]
102 -- Hailey Parker -- 12 -- [ 82 94 84 87 79 ]
#19 - East Aurora NY ... East Aurora finished a very good 3rd at NXR New York last year, but did not compete at NXN National ... East Aurora finished 4th at NXN Nationals in 2012 (race was won by Fayetteville-Manlius with Saratoga 5th) ... They return all 7 runners from NXR ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
137 -- Emilia O'Leary -- 12 -- [ 124 138
134 136 135 132 136 135 128 ]
126 -- Catherine Schoeneman -- 12 -- [ 104 118 127 123 124 125 110 108 ]
126 -- Kailyn Houghton -- 11 -- [ 121 119 109 123 125 126 116 110 ]
122 -- Reiley Pierce -- 10 -- [ 110 118 123 115 105 119 102 104 ]
103 -- Hope Owens -- 11 -- [ 102 100 99 82 80 96 105 76 ]
102 -- Evelyn Hoak -- 12 -- [ 86 86 95 94 92 71 77 45 ]
70 -- Katherine Maloney -- 10 -- [ 63 60 50 71 54 53 16 ]
#20 - Jesuit Portland OR ... Jesuit Portland finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year (and were12th in 2022) ... They finished 2nd at NXR Northwest and won the Oregon State 6A Championship (beating Lincoln HS) ... Jesuit Oregon returns 4 of 7 runners including 3 scorers, but they typically have some depth ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
142 -- Emma Bennett -- 12 -- [ 136 140
138 122 120 ]
130 -- Maeve O'Scannlain -- 10 -- [ 122 128 128 118 117 99 ]
123 -- Maura O'Scannlain -- 12 -- [ 103 105 115 80 111 106 ]
117 -- Elizabeth Welsh -- 10 -- [ 102 116 109 101 109 95 ]
110 -- Anya Augustine -- 10 -- [ 99 98 87 78 ]
104 -- Mimi Thompson -- 10 -- [ 100 104 101 ]
75 -- Madi Lukasiewicz -- 12 -- [ 74 75 ]
#21 - Timpview UT ... Timpview finished 12th at NXR Southwest last year (without top runner Jane Hedengren) and did not compete at NXN National ... Top runner at NXR Southwest was Lily Alder who finished 6th overall and she then finished an excellent 20th at NXN Nationals ... So Timpview has an excellent one-two up front ... The top 3 scorers at NXR return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
157 -- Jane Hedengren -- 12 -- [ 144 157
148 ]
146 -- Lily Alder -- 11 -- [ 146 142 137 135 140 ]
116 -- Gwen Boulton -- 11 -- [ 109 98 100 98 94 108 ]
113 -- Ellie Esplin -- 12 -- [ 99 108 92 105 87 91 ]
104 -- Daphne Iosua -- 12 -- [ 103 104 ]
95 -- Oliisia Mecham -- 11 -- [ 75 72 ]
90 -- Daphne Batmale -- 12 -- [ 90 77 76 ]
#22 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year (and 6th in 2022) ... They won NXR South handily ... Flower Mound was the Texas UIL 6A State Champion ... They return only 3 of 7 runners from those races and graduated several excellent runners, and I was a bit surprised they rated this well, but they do have some depth returning ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
140 -- Alexandra Fox -- 12 -- [ 132 136
136 140 141 140 134 ]
126 -- Ava Cole -- 12 -- [ 108 116 121 113 104 ]
123 -- Adeline Bennett -- 10 -- [ 102 117 120 111 111 87 67 ]
108 -- Megan Schmidt -- 10 -- [ 102 91 97 ]
107 -- Eliana Rivera -- 10 -- [ 92 84 98 103 101 93 ]
100 -- Emma Cheverton -- 11 -- [ 92 95 90 ]
99 -- Mckayla Kohutek -- 11 -- [ 97 83 63 ]
#23 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 21st at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Heartland ... They return the top 6 runners from NXR and NXN ... Update (July 26) - I have been told that Maddie Gullickson will be returning to XC following an injury during 2023 - she raced very nicely during XC 2022 (ratings below) and ran a 10:39 3200m this spring - This could definitely raise Wayzata's ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
135 -- Jazleen Malherek-Osorio -- 11 -- [
137 133 133 130 126 125 124 124 ]
130 -- Maddie Gullickson -- 11 -- [ 2022 - 133 124 123 121 116 113 111 ]
124 -- Alyson Kleyman -- 12 -- [ 115 125 112 116 117 116 107 110 ]
121 -- Miley Clark -- 11 -- [ 105 124 119 114 113 109 107 114 ]
115 -- Aubrey Smith -- 10 -- [ 99 115 112 111 114 110 108 107 ]
113 -- Chloe Kissell -- 11 -- [ 98 113 111 108 113 107 100 103 ]
110 -- Julia Link -- 12 -- [ 102 111 106 105 110 100 93 83 ]
91 -- Adele Stark -- 9 -- [ 92 83 ]
#24 - Champlain Valley Union VT ... Champlain Valley Union finished a very good 3rd at NXR Northeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They are the Vermont State Division1 Champions ... They return all runners from NXR ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
129 -- Alice Kredell -- 12 -- [ 127 132
126 127 111 117 ]
127 -- Estella Laird -- 12 -- [ 128 126 120 124 126 120 117 ]
120 -- Lydia Donahue -- 11 -- [ 120 118 116 117 117 110 107 111 ]
118 -- Audrey Neilson -- 11 -- [ 119 118 110 121 119 104 99 98 ]
111 -- Charlotte Crum -- 11 -- [ 106 113 111 114 92 90 102 ]
101 -- Annalise Wood -- 12 -- [ 92 94 94 91 90 80 84 84 ]
94 -- Noe Jenni -- 12 -- [ 89 94 91 84 92 90 88 ]
#25 - Fossill Ridge CO ... Fossil Ridge finished 7th at NXR Southwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd (to Air Academy) at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return 5 of 7 runners including 4 scorers (and the top 2 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
136 -- Tatum Berg -- 12 -- [ 129 125 126
130 125 120 123 108 119 ]
129 -- Mia Williams -- 12 -- [ 126 120 118 122 119 119 122 96 102 ]
116 -- Maya DiGiallonardo -- 10 -- [ 114 112 109 111 98 87 85 84 84 72 ]
112 -- Avery Breitigam -- 10 -- [ 111 106 96 98 83 86 82 78 86 73 ]
108 -- Samantha Geraets -- 12 -- [ 102 107 99 104 108 90 103 92 95 ]
105 -- Ia Reistad -- 12 -- [ 88 84 78 74 78 57 ]
87 -- Lily Wale -- 11 -- [ 87 79 87 58 80 49 ]
#26 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga Springs has competed at NXN Nationals in 16 of the 18 years that NXN (NTN) has operated ... Saratoga finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year after winning the previous two NXN Nationals ... they won the very 1st NXN (NTN) title in 2004 ... Last fall (like the previous fall), Saratoga won the NY State Class A race, the NY Federations Champ race and the NXR-New York race ... Saratoga lost some good runners going into the 2023 season, but had enough depth to finish 6th at NXN 2023 ... This time they graduated their top 3 runners ... The question is "Can Saratoga re-load?" ... Additional NY data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
122 -- Reagan Owen -- 9 -- [ 114 114 107
106 120 115 106 109 ]
121 -- Tong Ang -- 10 -- [ 109 93 114 113 124 112 105 103 ]
120 -- Cora Conley -- 9 -- [ 107 115 117 112 123 111 98 93 ]
120 -- Katie Turner -- 12 -- [ 114 119 121 119 121 109 96 105 ]
120 -- Heidi Berglund -- 10 -- [ 114 108 107 107 100 ]
107 -- Iley Centea -- 9 -- [ 104 107 100 98 98 ]
105 -- Hailey Capello -- 12 -- [ 93 86 86 74 83 ]
#27 - Oyster River NH ... Oyster River finished 4th at NXR Northeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the New Hampshire Meet of Champions and finished 2nd (to Champlain Valley VT) in the New England Championships ... They return 6 of 7 runners from NXR (including all scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
133 -- Haley Kavanagh -- 12 -- [ 116 133
129 128 115 95 86 ]
132 -- Mackenzie Cook -- 12 -- [ 130 125 126 123 119 118 ]
112 -- Haley Bezanson -- 10 -- [ 108 116 109 108 104 102 ]
111 -- Neely Roy -- 11 -- [ 108 115 108 108 103 102 ]
107 -- Madelyn Cook -- 10 -- [ 107 99 100 103 97 102 ]
72 -- Jahrie Houle -- 11 -- [ 73 70 65 72 71 ]
#28 - Prospect IL ... Prospect IL finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year (after finishing 5th in 2022) ... They won NXR Midwest ... They return 4 of 7 runners including 4 scorers ... An improvement at the #5 position will improve this ranking .. Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
133 -- Meg Peterson -- 11 -- [ 132 136
130 129 116 124 126 118 ]
133 -- Veronica Znajda -- 12 -- [ 127 134 131 129 132 128 117 ]
117 -- Ireland Wildhart -- 12 -- [ 110 119 122 111 110 110 107 103 ]
115 -- Sophie Fransen -- 12 -- [ 102 117 110 111 93 114 106 96 ]
96 -- Rachel Asper -- 11 -- [ 90 89 86 76 ]
92 -- Ella Benassi -- 11 -- [ 92 83 57 ]
78 -- Anna Zajac -- 11 -- [ 80 66 ]
#29 - Chapparral CO ... Chapparral CO finished 6th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 3rd (to Air Academy & Fossill Ridge) at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return all 5 scorers from NXR ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
131 -- Kapri Parry -- 11 -- [ 127 129 126
119 101 114 100 ]
129 -- Kaylee Ellsworth -- 12 -- [ 122 112 120 116 105 102 ]
120 -- Sutton Persichina -- 10 -- [ 122 118 113 95 106 95 ]
119 -- Hayden Parry -- 11 -- [ 116 116 121 109 110 106 ]
103 -- Swede Sabey -- 11 -- [ 97 98 95 96 87 80 ]
63 -- Sophia Poe -- 10 -- [ 65 54 63 65 60 45 42 ]
59 -- Kaylee Perrin -- 11 -- [ 63 45 51 ]
#30 - Assumption KY ... Assumption finished a very good 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd (to Tatnall) at NXR Southeast after winning the Kentucky State 3A race ... They return 4 of 7 runners, but some track performances of returning runners elevated them to this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
132 -- Leah Penick -- 12 -- [ 128 129 121
120 112 109 97 ]
122 -- Mabel George -- 11 -- [ 102 120 114 116 85 83 92 ]
114 -- Morgan White -- 12 -- [ 111 111 99 105 103 101 76 ]
112 -- Taryn Tracy -- 11 -- [ 95 108 108 112 94 94 98 ]
112 -- Caitlin Perkins -- 11 -- [ 82 80 79 ]
110 -- Brooke Greenwell -- 12 -- [ 89 85 78 93 ]
#31 - North Allegeny PA ... North Allegeny finished an excellent 5th at NXN Nationals last year (after finishing 15th in 2022) ... North Allegeny finished 2nd (to Union Catholic) at NXR Northeast ... They return 5 of 7 runners (but do lose 2 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
139 -- Wren Kucler -- 12 -- [ 137 140 139
136 130 ]
137 -- Robin Kucler -- 12 -- [ 133 130 125 136 129 130 130 127 ]
108 -- Kendall Lucas -- 12 -- [ 106 77 86 69 99 89 91 89 ]
107 -- Camille Swirsding -- 12 -- [ 99 101 98 108 105 100 99 92 ]
102 -- Lily Ries -- 10 -- [ 88 98 102 ]
101 -- Elizabeth Pizon -- 12 -- [ 99 101 89 89 87 88 86 77 ]
87 -- Teresa Pagnotto -- 11 -- [ 87 71 78 69 72 ]