National Pre-Season XC 2024
BOYS Teams - National 2024
Bill Meylan (July 25, 2024)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2023 XC season into 2024
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN National & Regional races or RunningLane Championship
- ... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
- ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once
the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season
.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2024 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".
NOTE ... This year, I manipulated many more "overall ratings" based on track performances
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2024
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 30 teams listed
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Herriman UT 180 Southwest
2 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 200 Northeast
3 Niwot CO 220 Southwest
4 Southlake Carroll TX 235 South
5 American Fork UT 290 Southwest
6 Downers Grove North IL 340 Midwest
7 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 345 Southeast
8 Coeur d'Alene ID 365 Northwest
9 Crater OR 370 Northwest
10 Bridgeland TX 375 South
11 Great Oak (SS) CA 375 California
12 Ridgefield CT 380 Northeast
13 Jesuit New Orleans LA 385 South
14 ML King (SS) CA 390 California
15 Austin Vandegrift TX 400 South
16 Plainfield North IL 405 Midwest
17 Buchanan (CS) CA 425 California
18 Jesuit Portland OR 430 Northwest
19 Coronado CO 430 Southwest
20 Rockhurst MO 445 Midwest
21 Arnold O. Beckman (SS) CA 450 California
22 Cheyenne Mountain CO 460 Southwest
23 Jesuit (SJ) CA 470 California
24 Mountain View UT 475 Southwest
25 Valor Christian CO 475 Southwest
26 Plainfield South IL 475 Midwest
27 Monroe-Woodbury NY 475 New York
28 Lucas Lovejoy TX 480 South
29 Stevens Point WI 480 Heartland
30 Hamilton AZ 480 Southwest
|
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... Some could replace teams
above because it is that close and guessing is
involved.
Trinity (Louisville) KY Southeast
Franklin OR Northwest
Northville MI Midwest
Tesoro (SS) CA California
Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest
Rocky Mountain ID Northwest
Ithaca NY New York
Huntsville HS AL Southeast
Dowling Catholic IA Heartland
Mira Costa (SS) CA California
Issaquah WA Northwest
Bentonville AR South
Saratoga Springs NY New York
Marist GA Southeast
Matilda Torres (CS) CA California
Barrington IL Midwest
JSerra Catholic (SS) CA California
Harrison GA Southeast
Riverton UT Southwest added
Haddonfield Memorial NJ Northeast
Columbus North IN Midwest
Rock Bridge MO Midwest
Viewmont UT Southwest
Sehome WA Northwest
Union Catholic NJ Northeast
Edina MN Heartland
Brownsburg IN Midwest
State College PA Northeast
Greer Middle College SC Southeast
Brentwood TN Southeast
Carmel IN Midwest
Marvin Ridge NC Southeast
Jenison MI Midwest
Oaks Christian (SS) CA California
Vestavia Hills HS AL Southeast
Tatnall DE Southeast
Blacksburg VA Southeast
Kamiakin WA Northwest
Spring Hill KS Heartland
New Trier IL Midwest
Helena MT Northwest
Thompson Valley CO Southwest
Ridgewood HS NJ Northeast
Bellarmine College Prep CA California
La Salle College PA Northeast
Ankeny IA Heartland
Wayzata MN Heartland
Bishop Hendricken RI Northeast
McCallie School TN Southeast
Brother Martin LA South
Cedar Falls IA Heartland
Allendale MI Midwest
Farragut TN Southeast
Minnetonka MN Heartland
Boise Senior ID Northwest
Mountain Vista CO Southwest
Lone Peak UT Southwest
Bismarck ND Heartland
Farragut TN Southeast
*** I may have missed some teams going through
my databases as quickly as I did
|
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2023 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (more than in the past)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- The top teams in the
rankings above dominated NXN Nationals last year ... In order from
the rankings above, the top 7 ranked teams finished 1st, 6th, 5th,
3rd, 2nd, 7th, and 4th, respectively, at NXN last year.
- As you go further down the ranking list above, the teams rate closer to each other (and the ranking order could be switched easily depending on ranking criteria or subjective opinion) ... If teams develop one or two new impact runners (and that does happen every year for some teams), those teams can move significantly up the rankings.
Note - The overall incoming speed rating number (the first number for each runner below) is a based on last year's seasonal speed ratings (the numbers in the brackets [ ] that are in sequential order with the most recent first) ... PLUS manipulation by me looking at track performances for nearly all runners.
#1 -
Herriman UT
... Herriman is the defending NXN National Champion (they finished an excellent 3rd at NXN 2022)
... Herriman finished 2nd (to American Fork by 42 points at
NXR
Southwest and by 6 points at the Utah State 6A race) ... Herriman
had their best race of the season at NXN, and that's where it counts ... They
lose 4 runners to graduation from those
races, BUT four returning runners have an individual speed rating
in the 180s ... In addition, Herriman is getting two
transfers - Jackson Spencer from Syracuse UT and Cooper Tripp from
Skyridge UT ... Herriman ran a
recent 5K (July 24) with good results ... The last two XC pre-seasons, I said Herriman may better
my
ranking (which they did), but it will be hard to better a #1 ranking
... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with
available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
185 -- Jonah Tang -- 12 -- [ 189 181 182
176 175 178 180 177 173 169 167 ]
184 -- Tayshaun Ogomo -- 12 -- [ 186 179 182 176 177 181 179 179 176 173
]
182 -- Noah Manwaring -- 12 -- [ 186 166 171 176 173 169 162 158 ]
181 -- Micah Tang -- 12 -- [ 181 174 179 175 173 173 181 174 172 168 159
]
181 -- Jackson Spencer -- 11 -- [ 170 178 175 163 163 162 169 ]
174 -- Cooper Tripp -- 12 -- [ 166 173 178 174 167 161 168 165 167 168 ]
162 -- Bryce Runnells -- 11 -- [ 156 163 159 153 150 146 154 ]
#2 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ ... Christian Brothers Academy is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... They finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... Christian Brothers won both NXR Northeast and New Jersey Meet Champions ... They lose 4 of 7 runners to graduation, but CBA is typically a deep team with an ability to add runners or reload ... Three returning runners have an individual speed rating in the 180s and their top runner is in the 190s (a great starting core) ... Several runners below have elevated overall ratings based on much improved track performances from the 2023 season (see American Fork below for an example of my method) ... Just a guess, but maybe Christian Brothers Academy will race better at NXN this year since NXR Northeast is scheduled to be raced two weeks before NXN (giving CBA an extra week of recovery) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
192 -- Joe Barrett -- 12 -- [ 183 188 193
195 192 189 189 ]
183 -- Alex Mastroly -- 12 -- [ 166 180 179 179 177 175 173 ]
181 -- Wyatt Falkowski -- 11 -- [ 172 178 174 173 176 177 180 ]
180 -- Ryan Schmitt -- 12 -- [ 156 170 ]
180 -- Luke Hnatt -- 11 -- [ 167 162 161 ]
174 -- Gavin Schmitt -- 10 -- [ 167 ]
171 -- Sean Galvin -- 11 -- [ 173 165 165 ]
#3 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 5th at NXN Nationals last year (they were 12th in 2022) ... They finished 4th at NXR Southwest and were correctly selected as an "At-Large" team for NXN ... They are the Colorado State 4A Champion ... They return all 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
189 -- Rocco Culpepper -- 11 -- [ 188 183
186 168 183 169 ]
187 -- Quinn Sullivan -- 10 -- [ 188 175 167 163 181 167 160 ]
178 -- Ryder Keeton -- 11 -- [ 170 174 176 162 162 165 149 ]
177 -- Cole Mazurana -- 12 -- [ 169 171 180 166 175 163 165 ]
176 -- Hunter Robbie -- 11 -- [ 175 173 171 163 162 171 167 155 ]
174 -- Keegan Geldean -- 12 -- [ 173 172 168 162 165 174 148 150 ]
172 -- Gabriel Marshall -- 11 -- [ 180 157 164 154 149 137 ]
#4 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll has competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... They finished an excellent 3rd at NXN last year ... At NXN 2022, they finished 20th (rumored to have been hampered by a virus) ... Southlake Carroll was the Texas State 6A Champs last year, and they handily won the NXR South Regional race ... They return 4 of 7 runners, and Southlake Carroll usually has some depth ... Three returning runners have an individual speed rating in the 180s (and one in the 170s) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
189 -- Caden Leonard -- 11 -- [ 191 188
189 184 188 183 182 179 ]
183 -- Blake Bullard -- 12 -- [ 177 183 186 174 179 178 182 176 ]
180 -- Griffin Cords -- 12 -- [ 181 180 171 162 176 166 162 163 ]
177 -- Alex Severson -- 12 -- [ 156 154 169 163 177 171 167 164 ]
170 -- Michael Fuller -- 11 -- [ 157 162 153 145 149 ]
154 -- Caleb Lo -- 12 -- [ 155 154 151 138 149 ]
153 -- Hudson Lowry -- 12 -- [ 152 153 152 143 ]
#5 - American Fork UT ... American Fork has competed very nicely at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Southwest by 42 points over Herriman ... They won the Utah State 6A Championship ... They graduated 6 of 7 runners from those races ... BUT "all is not lost" - American Fork is usually a deep and talented team ... Top returning runner (Kaden Evans) has speed ratings in the mid-180s ... Incoming transfer (Dallin Harrington from San Clemente CA) has speed ratings in the upper 170s ... Next I applied some "guessing":
Now here is where the guessing begins
- As an example, Austin Plewe is a sophomore going into his junior year
(a common time to see significant improvement for some runners) ... his
actual 2023 XC speed ratings were in the mid-to-upper 140s ... I look at
his limited available track performances for 2023 and compare them to
his noticeably improving track performances during indoor track 2024
with most improvement during outdoor 2024 ... during outdoor 2024,
Austin ran multiple 1600m races around 4:14 to 4:17 which correlates to
a speed rating in the mid-to-upper 180s on
my correlation chart ... But from experience, I know those 1600m
speed ratings are too high for most runners, so I ignore them
somewhat but
remember Austin's 1600m times are really good indicating major
improvement ... I want to see 3200m or 5000m track times in typical
races (not races like Arcadia) ... Austin ran 9:24.68 and 9:26.91
for 3200m in the spring of 2024, and these times correlate to speed
ratings in the upper 170s, and I assigned his overall rating below to
177 (it might have been lower if not at elevation ... I would rather
under-rate this type of estimate for any runner).
I used this estimation method for many
runners in this year's National pre-season projections.
Approximate representative American Fork returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
185 -- Kaden Evans -- 12 -- [ 185 181 186
178 179 178 175 177 ]
177 -- Dallin Harrington -- 11 -- [ 163 179 173 177 176 167 171 168 ]
177 -- Austin Plewe -- 11 -- [ 148 143 146 145 ]
175 -- Carter Moore -- 12 -- [ 151 157 146 154 ]
174 -- Alex Williams -- 12 -- [ 138 151 145 149 156 ]
169 -- Ryker Bement -- 12 -- [ 156 165 163 163 165 153 152 ]
133 -- Will Shin -- 11 -- [ 132 133 129 130 ]
#6 - Downers Grove North IN ... Downers Grove North finished 7th at NXN Nationals (and were 11th at NXN 2022) ... They won NXR Midwest handily ... Downers Grove North returns only 3 of 7 runners from those races, but do return 2 runners with speed ratings in the 180s and one in the 170s ... other returners showed improvement during track ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
180 -- Grant Schroder -- 12 -- [ 182 175
180 170 178 170 ]
180 -- Philip Cupial -- 11 -- [ 179 180 182 161 171 168 ]
178 -- Will Surratt -- 11 -- [ 173 171 175 161 162 160 ]
173 -- Brady Travers -- 12 -- [ 160 151 142 ]
166 -- Owen Kelly -- 12 -- [ 156 158 145 139 ]
161 -- John Courtney -- 12 -- [ 149 160 155 ]
140 -- Jack Loftus -- 12 -- [ 140 140 ]
#7 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep finished an excellent 4th at NXN Nationals last year (and were 14th at NXN 2022) ... They handily won NXR Southeast after winning the Florida State 3A title ... They return 4 of their top 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
188 -- Marcelo Mantecon -- 10 -- [ 191
176 188 192 187 185 181 178 ]
179 -- Joseph Socarras -- 12 -- [ 172 150 151 147 174 ]
177 -- Justin Ruiz -- 12 -- [ 176 178 175 179 179 175 176 167 ]
169 -- Diego Magarino -- 12 -- [ 158 150 155 169 169 164 168 173 ]
167 -- Marco Prieguez -- 12 -- [ 157 158 ]
157 -- Michael Brunet -- 12 -- [ 158 158 149 143 ]
156 -- Adrian Almeida -- 12 -- [ 154 158 153 139 ]
#8 - Coeur d'Alene ID ... Coeur d'Alene finished 11th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Northwest (by 5 points over Crater OR) ... They return 5 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
186 -- Max Cervi-Skinner -- 12 -- [ 182
186 182 182 179 180 179 177 ]
176 -- Mitchell Rietze -- 11 -- [ 172 176 174 170 165 173 162 150 ]
176 -- Wyatt Carr -- 10 -- [ 172 176 165 173 169 170 165 167 ]
175 -- Zackery Cervi-Skinner -- 12 -- [ 166 172 171 168 164 168 170 171
]
164 -- Kyle Rohlinger -- 12 -- [ 160 150 164 161 159 158 162 162 ]
148 -- Gabe Heule -- 10 -- [ 151 137 147 150 140 ]
146 -- Davey Dance -- 10 -- [ 148 139 144 136 133 ]
#9 - Crater OR ... Crater OR finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year (and were 4th at NXN 2022) ... They finished 2nd at NXR Northwest and won the Oregon State 5A Championship ... Crater returns 4 of 7 runners from NXN and NXR, but they return their top two runners (one of the best one-two in the nation, if not the best) ... ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
191 -- Josiah Tostenson -- 12 -- [ 192
174 187 167 185 169 ]
191 -- Tayvon Kitchen -- 12 -- [ 184 190 189 181 184 182 ]
170 -- Grant Headley -- 12 -- [ 159 172 167 157 158 165 ]
168 -- Ivar Hokanson -- 12 -- [ 164 164 165 158 158 159 ]
165 -- Maxwell Miracle -- 10 -- [ 153 156 ]
160 -- Nathan Goode -- 10 -- [ 152 147 151 141 ]
147 -- Reece Hvall -- 10 -- [ 145 148 146 ]
#10 - Bridgeland TX ... Bridgeland finished 11th at NXR South and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 6th at the Texas State 6A Championship ... They return all 5 scorers from the State Meet and NXR ... Bridgeland gets a very good transfer (Griffen Saacke) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
187 -- Benjamin Montgomery -- 12 -- [ 188
187 187 183 182 184 182 ]
178 -- Griffen Saacke -- 11 -- [ 171 177 175 170 168 ]
173 -- Kyle Pawlak -- 11 -- [ 166 167 165 168 161 165 ]
172 -- Maddox McCallister -- 11 -- [ 163 166 165 167 159 165 ]
167 -- Nazim Benguedda -- 11 -- [ 157 164 162 160 154 164 ]
163 -- Layton Carlisle -- 11 -- [ 157 154 155 152 143 153 ]
163 -- Vihaan Chamkur -- 11 -- [ 160 164 163 161 158 158 ]
#11 - Great Oak (SS) CA ... Great Oak CA finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year (and were 6th at NXN 2022) ... They finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge and were selected as an "At-Large" team ... They graduated 4 runners from those races, but return a good core of talent ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
185 -- Westin Brown -- 12 -- [ 173 185
171 ]
178 -- Jacob Brown -- 12 -- [ 172 183 175 167 175 175 172 157 ]
177 -- Jack Paradise -- 12 -- [ 170 174 176 182 177 176 171 157 ]
167 -- Christian Gump -- 12 -- [ 167 154 158 148 150 125 ]
166 -- Marco Franco -- 11 -- [ 171 162 158 153 158 139 ]
160 -- Carson Lynch -- 12 -- [ 160 151 146 155 140 ]
156 -- Nicolas Ovalle -- 12 -- [ 156 ]
#12 - Ridgefield CT ... Ridgefield CT finished 3rd at NXR Northeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Connecticut Open Championship, and return 6 of 7 runners (but lose their #1 runner) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
181 -- Charles Lovett -- 12 -- [ 181 178
177 175 161 ]
181 -- Magnus Manley -- 12 -- [ 180 176 178 172 161 ]
173 -- Trevor Fuller -- 12 -- [ 169 172 167 165 ]
171 -- Sullivan Dunn -- 12 -- [ 168 170 169 174 161 ]
167 -- Aidan Nelson -- 11 -- [ 163 160 164 154 149 ]
166 -- Pearse Mcinerney -- 11 -- [ 159 157 165 156 149 ]
162 -- Alex Glenn -- 12 -- [ 154 155 158 141 ]
#13 - Jesuit New Orleans LA ... Jesuit New Orleans finished 8th at NXR South last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Louisiana State D1 title ... Jesuit New Orleans returns 5 of 7 runners from their State Meet ... Three returning runners have a speed rating in the 180s ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
186 -- Brady Mullen -- 12 -- [ 183 183
189 182 ]
181 -- Brady Monahan -- 11 -- [ 180 175 179 179 172 ]
177 -- Leland Crawford -- 12 -- [ 160 179 180 ]
168 -- Joe Accardo -- 11 -- [ 153 172 158 162 ]
161 -- David Quintana -- 10 -- [ 158 159 156 153 ]
160 -- Andrew Nimmo -- 10 -- [ 156 ]
157 -- Connor Fanberg -- 11 -- [ 154 153 ]
#14 - ML King (SS) ... ML King (SS) finished 19th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 6 of 7 runners including the top 4 scorers from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
190 -- Maximo Zavaleta -- 11 -- [ 187 182
188 184 182 171 ]
180 -- Brad Quezada -- 11 -- [ 176 175 180 171 166 154 ]
174 -- Brayden Lunetta -- 12 -- [ 173 169 165 168 164 158 ]
167 -- Alex Wesolowski -- 12 -- [ 162 165 149 161 155 140 ]
164 -- Logan Carlson -- 11 -- [ 156 164 142 158 159 147 ]
160 -- Frank Stewart -- 11 -- [ 152 132 136 139 146 129 ]
126 -- Zachary Halama -- 12 -- [ 126 ]
#15 - Austin Vandegrift TX ... Austin Vandegrift finished 3rd at NXR South and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd (to Southlake Carroll) at the Texas State 6A Championship ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXR including 3 of the top 4 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
188 -- Hudson Haley -- 12 -- [ 189 185
188 183 185 185 184 181 ]
177 -- Kai McCullough -- 11 -- [ 169 176 169 168 171 174 164 ]
175 -- Collin Goodwin -- 10 -- [ 173 173 163 173 164 170 154 ]
170 -- Jackson Stafford -- 12 -- [ 111 144 167 170 160 159 ]
163 -- Christian Cruz Castro -- 12 -- [ 163 ]
162 -- Jack Ebeier -- 12 -- [ 159 165 160 162 155 158 158 ]
160 -- Miles Nutt -- 11 -- [ 158 137 ]
#16 - Plainfield North IL ... Plainfield North finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd at NXR Midwest and 2nd at the Illinois State 3A Championship ... They return 5 of 7 runners, including 4 scorers and their top runner ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2023 seasonal ratings]:
182 -- Thomas Czerwinski -- 11 -- [ 181
181 185 175 178 175 ]
180 -- Quinn Davis -- 12 -- [ 172 177 178 166 171 175 ]
174 -- Aidan Connors -- 11 -- [ 165 170 172 156 157 159 ]
169 -- James Maso -- 11 -- [ 158 169 169 147 143 ]
164 -- Gavin Hall -- 11 -- [ 165 161 167 156 154 155 ]
146 -- Sean Jansen -- 11 -- [ 148 143 138 ]
141 -- Dominic Frigo -- 10 -- [ 142 137 ]
#17 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan (CS) finished 18th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return their top 6 runners from the CA State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
181 -- Luke Sanders -- 12 -- [ 167 178
179 180 162 165 ]
174 -- Max Jauregui -- 12 -- [ 170 164 159 162 162 ]
173 -- Jansen Geyer -- 11 -- [ 152 167 170 165 163 158 ]
171 -- Michael Pritsky -- 11 -- [ 169 154 155 162 157 ]
168 -- Deaglan Givan -- 12 -- [ 167 167 151 164 165 ]
161 -- Andrew Ray -- 10 -- [ 161 148 143 155 ]
152 -- Jose Rodriguez-Mejia -- 10 -- [ 152 ]
#18 - Jesuit Portland OR ... Jesuit Portland has competed at multiple National races (and they get credit for that) ... They finished 6th at NXR Northwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Jesuit returns 5 of 7 runners from NXR including 4 scorers (but did lose their #1 runner) ... They do return a good core of runners, and I give them credit for that ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
180 -- Matthew Wroblewski -- 11 -- [ 175
177 174 173 ]
173 -- Brayden Fletcher -- 11 -- [ 174 172 171 167 168 ]
172 -- Loland Fleming -- 12 -- [ 169 163 170 164 158 ]
171 -- Kellen Williams -- 11 -- [ 168 166 171 169 169 ]
171 -- Coen Strub -- 12 -- [ 166 167 170 170 168 ]
160 -- Jackson Welch -- 11 -- [ 149 151 158 160 ]
155 -- Liam Donnelly -- 11 -- [ 144 154 143 141 ]
#19 - Coronado CO ... Coronado did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th in the Colorado State 4A Championship ... They return 5 of 7 runners including 4 scorers and their top 3 finishers at the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
182 -- Oliver Horton -- 10 -- [ 179 176
180 ]
180 -- Boston Potts -- 12 -- [ 177 178 172 174 166 ]
177 -- Xzavier Campos -- 11 -- [ 176 159 173 176 ]
165 -- Parker Davidson -- 12 -- [ 167 155 146 146 ]
160 -- Ryan Slater -- 12 -- [ 146 152 155 156 ]
154 -- Braxton Oliver -- 10 -- [ 153 155 ]
#20 - Rockhurst MO ... Rockhurst finished 8th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd at the Missouri State Class 5 Championship ... They return 5 of 7 from NXR and the State Meet (including the top 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
184 -- Henry Acorn -- 12 -- [ 184 183 183
181 179 174 ]
176 -- Kai Somasegaran -- 12 -- [ 178 176 170 162 162 ]
173 -- Andrew Davis -- 12 -- [ 173 174 170 155 156 ]
167 -- Justin Waldron -- 12 -- [ 172 142 ]
165 -- William Hayes -- 12 -- [ 162 147 156 165 150 ]
143 -- Matthew LaSala -- 12 -- [ 137 146 137 ]
#21 - Arnold O. Beckman (SS) CA ... Arnold O. Beckman finished 13th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 4 runners from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
178 -- Mason Nguyen -- 11 -- [ 163 172
173 177 178 170 ]
173 -- Christian Weber -- 11 -- [ 170 166 166 152 168 ]
172 -- Aaron Feaster -- 12 -- [ 169 170 147 159 170 ]
170 -- Anthony Barrera -- 12 -- [ 167 170 163 158 ]
169 -- Ryan Barris -- 10 -- [ 145 152 ]
160 -- Nolan Barajas -- 11 -- [ 157 152 ]
160 -- Brandon Boatman -- 10 -- [ 152 124 141 ]
#22 - Cheyenne Mountain CO ... Cheyenne Mountain finished 11th at NXR Southwest did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... Cheyenne Mountain finished 4th at the RunningLane Championship ...They finished 2nd (to Niwot) at the Colorado State 4A Championships ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races (including the top 4 scorers from RunningLane) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
188 -- Aiden Le Roux -- 11 -- [ 188 183
184 179 182 183 174 166 ]
185 -- Brogan Collins -- 12 -- [ 184 185 181 171 181 179 175 174 ]
172 -- William Newkirk -- 12 -- [ 171 164 156 162 158 161 151 152 ]
162 -- Aiden Ogg -- 11 -- [ 163 152 157 155 153 145 ]
160 -- Jack Krasovec -- 12 -- [ 161 146 149 143 ]
157 -- Gabe DeVanna -- 11 -- [ 123 136 143 136 135 ]
147 -- Tate Shelley -- 12 -- [ 122 128 ]
#23 - Jesuit CA (SJ) ... Jesuit (SJ) finished 14th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They return 5 runners from the State Meet (including 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
179 -- Isaac Abbott -- 11 -- [ 169 177
149 172 159 ]
176 -- Matthew Ogilvie -- 10 -- [ 171 161 147 ]
175 -- Drake Hoferer -- 11 -- [ 163 171 125 165 154 ]
165 -- Chase Cressman -- 12 -- [ 164 162 153 ]
163 -- Rafael Jopson -- 10 -- [ 154 152 ]
160 -- Navin Kadel -- 12 -- [ 151 157 152 ]
156 -- Brady Blum -- 12 -- [ 156 141 147 ]
#24 - Mountain View UT ... Mountain View UT finished 10th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Colorado State 4A Championship ... They return 5 of their top 6 from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
188 -- Kyle Steadman -- 12 -- [ 188 190
182 178 186 184 187 184 180 ]
179 -- Issac Sohler -- 12 -- [ 174 176 165 159 ]
170 -- Ammon Larson -- 12 -- [ 170 160 161 161 166 164 164 156 ]
166 -- Maverik Dutson -- 10 -- [ 167 166 158 159 157 149 ]
162 -- Wes Peterson -- 11 -- [ 158 138 148 142 141 146 ]
155 -- Wyatt Jeppson -- 11 -- [ 148 135 141 148 145 ]
154 -- Dash Madsen -- 12 -- [ 151 155 ]
#25 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 9th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th in the Colorado State 5A Championship ... Like last year, Valor Christian returns 6 of 7 runners from the State Meet, but lose their top runner to graduation ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
183 -- Kaeden Dendorfer -- 12 -- [ 184
176 181 172 182 166 ]
177 -- Porter Warren -- 12 -- [ 176 170 154 156 165 161 159 162 ]
171 -- Judah Crooks -- 12 -- [ 168 168 163 171 172 164 ]
165 -- Cory Gilbert -- 12 -- [ 164 161 155 165 162 157 148 ]
164 -- Griffin Mazeski -- 11 -- [ 163 160 158 151 155 ]
155 -- Henry Johnston -- 12 -- [ 146 156 131 148 135 ]
152 -- Isaac Yang -- 12 -- [ 141 152 152 142 150 149 145 ]
#26 - Plainfield South IL ... Plainfield South finished 3rd at NXR Midwest (losing to 2nd-place Plainfield North by one point) and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at the Illinois State 3A Championship (behind Downers Grove North and Plainfield North) ... They return 5 of 7 runners form NXR Midwest ... I'm assuming they might develop some additional runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2023 seasonal ratings]:
186 -- Dylan Maloney -- 12 -- [ 181 182
181 190 179 176 ]
172 -- Riley Fink -- 12 -- [ 174 170 166 156 165 ]
172 -- Alex Batsala -- 10 -- [ 166 170 164 157 150 ]
165 -- Dylan Buturusis -- 10 -- [ 159 161 150 149 145 ]
164 -- Austin Cory -- 11 -- [ 155 156 152 145 ]
161 -- Tyler Miller -- 11 -- [ 152 150 145 ]
159 -- Cole Maranowicz -- 12 -- [ 150 151 151 ]
#27 - Monroe-Woodbury NY ... Monroe-Woodbury finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR New York and the NY Federation Championship ... They return 5 of the top 6 from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
182 -- Shane Golio -- 12 -- [ 173 182 182
180 172 175 171 165 168 163 147 ]
181 -- Gavin Catherwood -- 12 -- [ 166 173 178 178 173 170 170 165 168
159 146 ]
174 -- Devon Ryan -- 12 -- [ 167 170 169 172 170 169 168 163 161 ]
163 -- Ronaldo Rodriguez Perez -- 12 -- [ 155 160 162 163 155 147 157
150 151 146 126 ]
161 -- Vincent Costello -- 12 -- [ 155 152 160 161 152 154 153 148 135
141 127 125 ]
155 -- Krzysztof Balbuena -- 11 -- [ 137 152 154 140 155 153 135 ]
149 -- Tylan Haag -- 11 -- [ 144 144 149 134 149 141 139 138 132 ]
#28 - Lucas Lovejoy TX ... Lucas Lovejoy finished 10th at NXR South did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Texas UIL State 5A Championship ... They return 6 of 7 runners (losing one scorer) ... ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
185 -- Caden Gary -- 12 -- [ 170 175 183
175 173 172 170 ]
173 -- Joseph Reid -- 11 -- [ 166 172 170 168 165 169 158 ]
171 -- Aaron Wimbish -- 12 -- [ 165 166 169 165 161 161 158 ]
170 -- William Carlson -- 12 -- [ 152 170 164 149 157 154 161 ]
164 -- Tyler Morefield -- 12 -- [ 157 157 156 148 ]
163 -- Henry Bennion -- 12 -- [ 161 161 163 157 158 155 ]
162 -- Devin Muaina -- 12 -- [ 159 164 149 160 162 160 159 ]
#29 - Stevens Point WI ... Stevens Point finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Heartland & were the Wisconsin State Division 1 Champions ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races, including a decent returning core to compete in the Heartland region ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
181 -- Ethan Olds -- 12 -- [ 176 182 178
173 172 160 ]
176 -- Cooper Erickson -- 11 -- [ 173 175 177 171 169 160 ]
173 -- Graham Ballard -- 12 -- [ 163 172 174 164 157 141 ]
165 -- Andrew Dziak -- 12 -- [ 155 163 168 165 155 158 ]
160 -- Donald Voetberg -- 11 -- [ 142 139 126 ]
155 -- Matt Frank -- 12 -- [ 150 147 152 ]
153 -- Ben Hopp -- 11 -- [ 133 142 ]
#30 - Hamilton AZ ... Hamilton AZ finished 28th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd at the Arizona State D1 Championship ... They return all 7 runners from those races ... Some elevated track performances suggest potential improvement, so I included them ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:
179 -- Zarian Rodriguez -- 11 -- [ 172
176 169 ]
175 -- Chase Markunas -- 12 -- [ 148 173 171 169 ]
174 -- Theo McDaid -- 12 -- [ 153 165 155 156 ]
168 -- Dominick Muller -- 12 -- [ 148 165 163 164 ]
163 -- Adam Slater -- 11 -- [ 151 157 142 159 ]
157 -- Brady Nieto -- 12 -- [ 123 149 147 150 ]
138 -- Hunter Lipinski -- 12 -- [ 133 134 140 140 ]
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.