National Pre-Season XC 2023

BOYS Teams - National 2023

Bill Meylan (July 23, 2023 ... Updated August 10)

Boys - Contending National Teams
... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
Purpose
... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
Ranking Method
... General extension of the 2022 XC season into 2023
... Focus on cross country results ... modify very little and selectively with track results
... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races or RunningLane Championship
... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2023 race results are what count.

Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".

I did add some Regional Projections

Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2023

 

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2023

 ... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 32 teams listed 


      School                   State   Score    NXN Region
      --------------------     -----   -----    ----------
  1   American Fork             UT      215     Southwest
  2   Crater                    OR      240     Northwest
  3   Christian Brothers Acad   NJ      275     Northeast
  4   Belen Jesuit Prep         FL      280     Southeast
  5   Ventura (SS)              CA      285     California
  6   Southlake Carroll         TX      320     South
  7   McCallie School           TN      325     Southeast
  8   Stevens Point             WI      335     Heartland
  9   Wayzata                   MN      350     Heartland
  10  Herriman                  UT      365     Southwest
  11  Jesuit New Orleans        LA      375     South
  12  Union Catholic Reg HS     NJ      380     Northeast
  13  University High           WV      405     Southeast
  14  Coeur d'Alene             ID      420     Northwest
  15  Bentonville               AR      420     South
  16  Riverton                  UT      425     Southwest
  17  Downers Grove (North)     IL      460     Midwest
  18  Carmel                    IN      460     Midwest
  19  Dana Hills (SS)           CA      460     California * transfer added
  20  Calvert Hall College HS   MD      465     Southeast
  21  San Clemente (SS)         CA      465     California
  22  Noblesville               IN      470     Midwest
  23  Trabuco Hills (SS)        CA      470     California
  24  Seattle Preparatory       WA      480     Northwest
  25  Valor Christian           CO      485     Southwest
  26  Jesuit Portland           OR      490     Northwest
  27  Wichita Trinity Academy   KS      490     Heartland
  28  Westfield HS              NJ      495     Northeast
  29  Brentwood High            TN      500     Southeast
  30  Great Oak (SS)            CA      505     California
  31  Cathedral (SS)            CA      515     California
  32  Farragut                  TN      515     Southeast
  33  Boise Senior              ID      515     Northwest
  --  Grapevine **              TX      700+    South
  
      ** Grapevine dropped due to transfer of top runner
      * Dana Hills moved up due to transfer addition
       

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled ... Some could replace teams
      above because it is that close and guessing is
      involved.


      Boise Senior              ID      Northwest ** (moved up to #33)
      Niwot                     CO      Southwest
      Dana Hills (SS)           CA      California ** (moved up to #19)
      Brookline                 MA      Northeast
      Mason                     OH      Midwest
      Fairport                  NY      New York  ** (Top New York Team)
      Lucas Lovejoy             TX      South
      Zionsville Community      IN      Midwest
      Plainfield (South)        IL      Midwest
      The Classical Academy     CO      Southwest
      Brother Martin            LA      South
      Lone Peak                 UT      Southwest
      Westford Academy          MA      Northeast
      Idaho Falls               ID      Northwest
      Newbury Park (SS)         CA      California
      Crystal Spr Uplands (CC)  CA      California
      Mas. Jackson              OH      Midwest
      Vestavia Hills HS         AL      Southeast
      Deer Creek                OK      South
      Rocky Mountain            ID      Northwest
      Episcopal Academy         PA      Northeast
      Yosemite (CS)             CA      California
      Indian Rocks Christian    FL      Southeast
      Orem                      UT      Southwest
      Westford Academy          MA      Northeast
      Dowling Catholic          IA      Heartland
      Barrington                IL      Midwest
      Westminster School        GA      Southeast
      Marlington                OH      Midwest
      Hinsdale (Central)        IL      Midwest
      St. Francis (SS)          CA      California
      St. Anthony's             NY      New York
      Ridgefield                CT      Northeast
      Austin Vandegrift         TX      South
      Liberty North             MO      Midwest
      Skyridge                  UT      Southwest
      Grapevine                 TX      South  ** dropped here due to transfer
      Madison West              WI      Heartland
      LaGrange (Lyons)          IL      Midwest
      Star Valley               WY      Northwest
      Arlington Hts (Hersey)    IL      Midwest
      O'Fallon (H.S.)           IL      Midwest
      Huntsville HS             AL      Southeast
      Issaquah                  WA      Northwest
      North Allegheny           PA      Northeast
      Danbury                   CT      Northeast
      Bolles HS                 FL      Southeast
      Saratoga Springs          NY      New York
      East Grand Rapids         MI      Midwest
      Phillips Exeter Academy   NH      Northeast
      Plainfield (North)        IL      Midwest
      Minneapolis Southwest     MN      Heartland

  *** I may have missed some teams going through
        my databases as quickly as I did

Where did the scores come from?
... 2022 Seasonal Speed Ratings
... Manual manipulation based on track results (but very few)
... Manual manipulation based on Guessing

Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.

General Comments for the Coming Season
... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
... Unfortunately, I had to exclude some teams due to lack of data I need for my purpose
American Fork UT & Crater OR are the Top-Ranked teams entering the 2023 XC season ... They finished 5th & 4th, respectively, at last year's NXN Nationals.
I think a bunch of teams in the top 16 above have a legitimate chance to "make the podium" at NXN Nationals if they develop one or two new impact runners (and that does happen for some teams every year).
Very little separates the lower-ranked 16 or so teams ... See Valor Christian Comments below) ... Most ranking placement was determined by speed-rating simulations (which varied quite a bit) ... One new "good" runner on most teams or one scorer having an "off" race made a significant difference in ranking position.

Comments on the TOP 32 Teams:

#1 - American Fork UT ... American Fork has competed very nicely at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... American Fork finished 5th at NXN Nationals last year (only 2 points behind Crater OR) after winning NXR Southwest ... They won the Utah State 6A Championship ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

197 - Daniel Simmons - 12 -- (202 195 192 190 189 183 188 186 182)
178 - Ben Jaster - 12 -- (179 177 173 173 159 165 170 167 157)
177 - Ben Bradshaw - 12 -- (177 177 174 174 173 175 173 165)
176 - Chase Pack - 12 -- (179 174 172 163 165 165 162 158)
174 - Kaden Evans - 11 -- (176 174 164 162 156 154 157 151 158 153)
163 - Bridger Karren - 12 -- (166 151 138 149 156 166 160 160 147)
158 - Maxwell Orr - 12 -- (153 154 152 159 160 155)

#2 - Crater OR ... Crater OR finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Northwest and the Oregon State 5A Championship ... Crater loses their top runner to graduation (Tyrone Gorze), but returns their next 5 runners ... Like American Fork, the returning speed ratings of the top 5 are in the 170s or higher ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

185 - Josiah Tostenson - 11 -- (185 185 177 180 187 181)
178 - Jeffrey Hellmann - 12 -- (179 180 164 163 170)
176 - Tayvon Kitchen - 11 -- (176 177 176 173 166 159)
175 - Shaun Garnica - 12 -- (174 175 175 169 169 168
173 - Caleb Doddington - 12 -- (165 170 176 166 171 168)
140 - Ivar Hokanson - 11 -- (138 140)
135 - Caleb Barsalou - 12 -- (136 135 134)

#3 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ ... Christian Brothers Academy is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... They finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ... Christian Brothers won both the NXR Northeast Regional and New Jersey Meet Champions ... they lose 3 of 7 runners to graduation, but CBA is typically a deep team with an ability to add runners or reload ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

187 - Joe Barrett - 11 -- (163 185 189 190 188 183 185)
180 - Jack Falkowski - 12 -- (156 179 180 179 180 172)
175 - Conor Clifford - 12 -- (170 176 176 174 168 164 161)
172 - Alex Kemp - 12 -- (104 166 168 175 174 166 17 )
171 - Ryan Schmitt - 11 -- (164 172 170)
166 - Alex Mastroly - 11 -- (167 162)
158 - William De Marco - 12 -- (160 154 149)

#4 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd (to Farragut TN) at NXR Southeast Regional after winning the Florida State 3A title ... They return 5 of their top 7 runners from those races, including the top 3 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

184 - Joshua Ruiz - 12 -- (174 190 182 178 183 175 177 167)
179 - Marcelo Mantecon - 9 -- (180 178 176 174 168 161 153)
177 - Joseph Ruiz - 12 -- (167 183 172 167 176 173 169 162)
174 - Joseph Socarras - 11 -- (172 172 177 173 175 166 165 164)
168 - Evan Torres - 12 -- (164 166 158 171 173 165 160)
168 - Lucas Alejandro Garcia - 12 -- (168 142 170 161 161 163)
165 - Justin Ruiz - 11 -- (167 161 162 156)

#5 - Ventura (SS) CA ... Ventura finished 6th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 5 of 6 from the State Meet including the top 4 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

186 - Anthony Fast Horse - 12 -- (181 188 185 168 161 145)
183 - Micah Grossman - 12 -- (182 184 168 182 175)
179 - Nick DeGeorge - 12 -- (177 179 179 168 178 170)
169 - Hollis Costa - 12 -- (168 169 166 170 160)
168 - Henry Hammel - 12 -- (160 158 168 170)
147 - Blake Harris - 10 -- (146 138 135 150)

#6 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll has competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions & finished 20th last year (rumored to have been hampered by a virus) ... They were the Texas State 6A Champs last year, and won the NXR South Regional on a wet & slippery course ... They return 4 of 7 runners, including 4 scorers from NXN ... Southlake Carroll usually has some depth ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

181 - Jude Alvarez - 12 -- (183 176 180 178 179 171)
179 - Caden Leonard - 10 -- (168 179 181 175 174 172 170 171 166)
178 - Blake Bullard - 11 -- (165 181 175 178 172 159 176 173 157)
170 - Zach Troutman - 12 -- (166 163 173 168 162 174 168 166 161)
167 - Alex Severson - 11 -- (163 164 171 165 158 164)
164 - Logan Arnold - 12 -- (165 160)
162 - Griffin Cords - 11 -- (165 159 153 144 147)

#7 - McCallie TN ... McCallie finished 3rd at NXR Southeast, but were not selected for NXN Nationals (even though they were only 4 points behind Belen Jesuit Prep & 10 points behind Farragut) ... McCallie won the Tennessee State AAA title ... They return 5 of 7 runners including 4 scorers from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

186 - Jack Bowen - 11 -- (185 188 176 173)
174 - Evan Simpson - 12 -- (168 180 167 165)
173 - Garrison Corley - 12 -- (176 161)
173 - Harry Carter - 12 -- (177 165 164 162)
169 - Grady Outlaw - 12 -- (117 172 166 163)
151 - Henry Edwards - 11 -- (153 136)
148 - Ward Richey - 11 -- (149 143)

#8 - Stevens Point WI ... Stevens Point finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd (to Wayzata) at NXR Heartland & were the Wisconsin State Division 1 Champions ... They return the top 5 runners from all those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

187 - Aloysius Franzen - 12 -- (188 184 185 174)
184 - Bode Erickson - 12 -- (181 184 185 177 179)
171 - Ethan Olds - 11 -- (166 173 170 169 161)
169 - Graham Ballard - 11 -- (170 167 169 162 162)
168 - Cooper Erickson - 10 -- (162 168 170 162 168)
160 - Cooper Gunderson - 12 -- (160)
151 - Matt Frank - 11 -- (151)

#9 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata has competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... Wayzata finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Heartland & the Minnesota 3A State title ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

179 - Will Weber - 11 -- (178 178 181 177 176 172 172 170)
179 - Daniel Mccollor - 12 -- (179 178 177 178 179 174 168 161)
175 - Tyler Kissell - 12 -- (171 176 175 174 173 170 153 166 154)
171 - Parker Dietrick - 12 -- (173 170 170 168 163 161 161 159 152)
166 - Hayes Mcmillan - 12 -- (155 158 173 164 166 156 164)
156 - Alexander Haag - 11 -- (158 152 148 140)
155 - Daniel Salatino - 11 -- (151 153 157 153 158 149 153 154)

#10 - Herriman UT ... Herriman finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals last year ... Herriman finished 2nd (to American Fork) at NXR Southwest & finished 4th at the Utah State 6A race (behind winner American Fork) ... They lose 4 runners to graduation from those races, but return 7 runners having an individual speed rating of 161 or higher & 3 runners in the 170s ... Herriman gave notice of their ability early last XC season when they won the Woodbridge Classic Sweeps in California (and beat Crater OR, Southlake Carroll and others in this preview) ... Once again, Herriman may better this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

179 - Jack Beckstrom - 12 -- (180 169 162 169 169 169 150 152 160 152)
173 - Maxwell Hofheins - 12 -- (173 164 164 161 167 169 157 152 154 145)
172 - William Steadman - 12 -- (154 172 167 166 155 171 165)
168 - Tayshaun Ogomo - 11 -- (167 165 167 168 153 153 156)
166 - Hyrum Wood - 12 -- (166 159 154 158 167 161 162 155 160 154)
162 - Noah Manwaring - 11 -- (158 162)
161 - Nathan Wardle - 12 -- (142 155 161 156 137 157 146)

#11 - Jesuit New Orleans LA ... Jesuit New Orleans did not compete at NXR South or NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th at the RunningLane Championships last year (on a slow-wet course), after winning the Louisiana State D1 title ... Jesuit New Orleans returns 5 runners with speed ratings in the 160s or higher (4 in the 170s or higher) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

185 - Brady Mullen - 11 -- (174 183 189 181)
178 - Michael Vocke - 12 -- (177 179 163)
172 - Leland Crawford - 11 -- (147 173 175 175)
170 - Lucas Sampedro - 12 -- (169 171 152)
163 - Brady Monahan - 10 -- (158 164)

#12 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Northeast & 2nd at the New Jersey Meet of Champions (without top runner Jimmy Wischusen who was injured) ... Union Catholic returns the 5 of 7 from the NJ MOC & NXR Notheast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

193 - Jimmy Wischusen - 12 -- (194 189)
181 - Alex Saldana - 12 -- (182 178 181 179 172)
172 - Evan Weber - 11 -- (132 173 173 165 170 165)
163 - Sean Wilson - 12 -- (163 145 130 169 166)
163 - Alessandro Alvarez-Tullo - 12 -- (148 164 163 156 153 153)
162 - Michael Devine - 11 -- (160 162 163 156)
158 - Gavin Devine - 12 -- (158 157)

#13 - University High WV ... University High did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Southeast after winning the West Virginia State AAA title ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

182 - Drew Zundell - 12 -- (179 184 180 170)
176 - Jacob West - 12 -- (177 174 167 161)
169 - Ethan Conroy - 10 -- (166 174 156 136)
169 - Tyler Umbright - 11 -- (169 169 167 149)
168 - Gavin Whorton - 11 -- (164 168 168 156)
159 - Jack Overfield - 11 -- (153 163 153 134)

#14 - Coeur d'Alene ID ... Coeur d'Alene did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 7th at NXR Northwest & 3rd at the Idaho State 5A race ... They return their entire team from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

184 - Max Cervi-Skinner - 11 -- (183 185 184 171 173 177)
175 - Lachlan May - 12 -- (173 180 164 168 157)
172 - Jacob King - 12 -- (170 172 165 169 172)
171 - Zach Cervi-Skinner - 11 -- (170 174 164 158 164)
157 - Kyle Rohlinger - 11 -- (151 155 146 140 143)
151 - Mitchell Rietze - 10 -- (155 146 135 144)
142 - Brayden Osterdock - 10 -- (143 137)

#15 - Bentonville AR ... Bentonville did not compete at NXN Nationals or NXR South last year ... They finished 8th at the RunningLane Championships & won the Arkansas State 6A title ... They return 5 of their top 6 from the State Meet including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

178 - James American Horse - 12 -- (176 175 178 177 183)
173 - Owen Kelley - 11 -- (175 171 165 173)
172 - Eli Seavey - 12 -- (167 173 168 173)
171 - Matthew Shelly - 11 -- (166 172 170 173)
167 - Payton Brack - 12 -- (153 169 163 171)
160 - Ryan Fernstrom - 11 -- (158 161)
154 - Harper Jones - 11 -- (154)

#16 - Riverton UT ... Riverton did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 5th at NXR Southwest & 3rd at the Utah State 6A Championships ... They return 5 of 7 runners from those races, but graduated 2 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

180 - Samuel Ghiz - 12 -- (179 182 174 180 175 169 175 177 170)
174 - Andrew Ludwig - 12 -- (177 167 169 162 170 172 165 167 176)
172 - Corbin Randall - 11 -- (174 165 170 160 166 167 161 160 163)
170 - Kaden Chatfield - 12 -- (174 154 159)
160 - Luke Horner - 12 -- (158 166 156 155 152 153 153 151 149 149)
153 - Helm Gage - 12 -- (134 159 151 148 144 144)
151 - Dane Jones - 11 -- (153 147 141)

#17 - Downers Grove North IN ... Downers Grove North finished 11th at NXN Nationals (they lost 10th-place on a tie-breaker) ... They finished 3rd at NXR Midwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team ... They finished 3rd at the Illinois State 3A race, and lose 3 runners to graduation, but return the top 2 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

182 - Caden Weber - 12 -- (182 178 179 173 168)
179 - Ryan Eddington - 12 -- (179 158 179 179 169 162)
170 - Grant Schroder - 11 -- (169 166 166 170)
167 - Zachary Bender - 12 -- (163 152 169 163 162 164)
156 - Philip Cupial - 10 -- (151)
147 - Brady Travers - 11 -- (147)
147 - Ryan Gustis - 11 -- (147)

#18 - Carmel IN ... Carmel finished 5th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They won the Indiana State Championship ... They return 5 runners from the NXR Midwest race, but lose their top runner (Kole Mathison) ... Carmel is typically a large squad with an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

189 - Anthony Provenzano - 12 -- (184 188 191 188 189 183 179 176)
171 - Thomas Biltimier - 12 -- (172 167 169 175 168 168 169)
171 - Jack Capes - 11 -- (167 166 171 175 171 171 173 171)
165 - Kyle Grove - 12 -- (166 165 158 156 155)
162 - Kiefer Jay - 11 -- (148 167 159 152 155)
161 - Max Meisner - 12 -- (158 164 146 162 151)
158 - William Gilhooly IV - 11 -- (160 146)

#19 - Dana Hills (SS) CA ... Dana Hills finished 18th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 5 of 7runners from the CA State Meet, including the top 4 scorers ... Update (Aug 10th): Dana Hills is adding Jayden Hernandez (transfer for Godinez HS) which moves Dana Hills up to #19) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

189 - Evan Noonan - 11 -- (183 190 183 166 187 181 177 173 159)
179 - Jayden Hernandez - 12 -- (179 179 179 176)
169 - Garrett Woodruff - 12 -- (163 165 156 167 164 168 170 153)
164 - Logan Harris - 12 -- (165 159 156 159 150 141 153 144)
162 - Oliver Hunter - 10 -- (163 157 133 152 143 152 136)
159 - Mike Ayala - 12 -- (159 151 158 149 159 158 141)
141 - Ethan Britton - 12 -- (142 117)

#20 - Calvert Hall College HS MD ... Calvert Hall College HS is a private school in Maryland ... I was not familiar with this team until NXR Southeast where they finished a very nice 5th against some talent teams ... They return a solid core of 4 runners from the NXR Southeast race ... Another runner (Ryan Warner) posted some decent outdoor track times [800m (2:00.13), 1600m (4:28.83), 3200m (9:58.29)], and they might be very good in the fall ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

186 - Cameron Davis - 12 -- (186 183 187)
173 - Rei Nettey Rahsaan - 11 -- (173 173)
172 - Stephen Gonzalez - 12 -- (172 172)
166 - Cort Schroder - 12 -- (166 166)
158 ? - Ryan Warner - 12 -- (158)
137 - Luke Doetschman - 12 -- (137 137)

#21 - San Clemente (SS) CA ... San Clemente finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... They were 3rd in the California State Meet Merge, and selected as an "At-Large" team ... They graduated 3 runners from that race, but return a good core of 4 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

181 - Brett Ephraim - 12 -- (177 178 158 182 181 179 174 172)
173 - Pierce Clark - 12 -- (174 170 167 176 169 172 163 161)
172 - Taj Clark - 12 -- (169 169 172 173 163 170 170 161)
166 - Dallin Harrington - 10 -- (165 167 163 159 157 155)
156 - Kai Olsen - 12 -- (155 155 157)
156 - Isaac Gould - 12 -- (162 143 140)
138 - Jackson Brownell - 12 -- (133 140)

#22 - Noblesville IN ... Noblesville IN finished 10th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 5th at the Indiana State Championships ... They return 5 of their top 6 from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

180 - Caden Click - 12 -- (178 180 178 187 177 156 164)
172 - Jack Strong - 11 -- (174 165 166 178 170 159 171)
167 - Sam Rinker - 12 -- (152 168 164 153 174 152 165 163)
166 - Ronnie Neal - 11 -- (154 162 161 169 168 156 167 167)
164 - Alec Moor - 12 -- (150 154 154 169 154 163 159)
149 - Caden Jackson - 11 -- (151 145 148 143)

#23 - Trabuco Hills (SS) CA ... Trabuco Hills finished 11th in the California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 5 runners from the State Meet race, including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

180 - Carsten Williams - 11 -- (180 180 177 179 174 172)
172 - Ryan Stanley - 12 -- (173 171 169 155 165)
170 - Dylan Jubak - 11 -- (171 170 158 160 165 162)
168 - Micah Clemons - 12 -- (170 163 161 161 153 155)
160 - Eli Griggs - 12 -- (153 161 159 161 160)
155 - Justin Forbes - 12 -- (156 149 148)
150 - Logan Fulford - 12 -- (146 151)

#24 - Seattle Prepatory WA ... Seattle Preparatory finished 8th at NXR Northwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Washington State 3A Championship (best average time of all classes), and return 5 of 7 runners from those races including the top 4 (strong core of three with speed ratings in the mid-to-upper 170s) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

178 - Jack Henzke - 12 -- (176 179 178 178 176)
176 - Hudson Atrosh - 11 -- (178 173 165 169 157)
175 - Liam Riley - 12 -- (168 176 176 174 173)
164 - Nicolas Davila - 12 -- (155 166 162 149)
154 - Shane Effgen - 11 -- (141 130 154 140)
145 - Wyatt Heily - 11 -- (147 134)
141 - William Huddleston - 12 -- (141)

#25 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 13th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They won the Colorado State 5A Championship (with an average time faster than Niwot in the State 4A race) ... Valor Christian returns 6 of 7 runners from the State Meet, but lose their top runner to graduation.

Niwot is the #34 team using my lists above ... Niwot lost 4 runners to graduation from States & NXR, but they have a deep team ... I am posting Niwot's returning speed rating below to show how little a difference exists between #24 and #34 (and this pertains to other teams above & below) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

Valor Christian:
185 - Dane Eike - 12 -- (186 184 182 183 184)
180 - Kaeden Dendorfer - 11 -- (182 171 179 176 176)
163 - Porter Warren - 11 -- (164 125 163 164 160)
163 - Judah Crooks - 11 -- (154 155 165 164 160)
160 - Enzo Swan - 11 -- (150 155 160 161 154)
155 - Cory Gilbert - 11 -- (155 155 153 154 142)
141 - Griffin Mazeski - 10 -- (138 142 )

Niwot:
179 - Rocco Culpepper - 10 -- (175 175 180 180 171 170)
169 - Gavin Engtrakul - 11 -- (171 169 165 154 168 154 162)
167 - Christopher Wood - 11 -- (167 168 161 157 146 136)
160 - Keegan Geldean - 11 -- (162 154 143 159 157)
161 - Evan Kear - 11 -- (165 152 143 148 148)
155 - William Lennert - 11 -- (149 159 137 154 144)
147 - James Anthony - 11 -- (152 138 133 141)

#26 - Jesuit Portland ... Jesuit Portland has competed at multiple National races (and they get credit for that) ... They finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd at NXR Northwest (behind Crater) and won the Oregon State 6A race (in faster average time than Crater in the State 5A race)... Jesuit returns 4 of 7 runners, but graduated 3 scorers ... They do return a good core of runners, and I give them credit for reloading somewhat ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

183 - Caden Swanson - 12 -- (183 179 182 184 174 177 167)
172 - Matthew Wroblewski - 10 -- (172 163 172 171 156 165 160)
168 - Coen Strub - 11 -- (169 168 165 163 168 164 163)
160 - Ethan Strong - 12 -- (158 154 160 160 156 158)
160 - Kellen Williams - 10 -- (159 162 154 156 149 134)
152 - Hoby Miller - 12 -- (154 143 145)
149 - Jacob Bostic - 12 -- (149 148 149 141)

#27 - Wichita Trinity Academy KS ... Wichita Trinity Academy did not compete at NXN Nationals (or any other post-season races that I searched) ... They won the Kansas State 3A title and return a good core of 4 runners (which is why they are ranked) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

186 - Clay Shively - 12 -- (185 187 185)
179 - Jacob Hobson - 12 -- (180 176 169)
170 - Samuel Ferguson - 12 -- (167 170 170)
164 - Caleb Tofteland - 11 -- (166 157 148)
151 - Wes Ferguson - 12 -- (152 137 144)
137 - Grayson Payne - 11 -- (128 139 135)
124 - Jaren Martinson - 11 -- (125 122)

#28 - Westfield NJ ... Westfield NJ finished 9th at NXR Northeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 4th at the New Jersey Meet of Champions, and return their top 5 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

184 - Avery Keith - 12 -- (185 183 181 180 181 168)
171 - Tage Mehta - 12 -- (155 170 177 151)
168 - Ryan Daly - 11 -- (159 169 169 164 164 168)
165 - Graham Korins - 12 -- (151 166 164 159 164 171)
162 - Eamon Mason - 12 -- (155 167 154 159)
160 - Jimmy Gildea - 12 -- (161 152 149 164)
149 - Alexander Valencia - 12 -- (150 149 143)

#29 - Brentwood High TN ... Brentwood finished 4th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 3rd at the Tennessee State AAA Championship (behind winner Farragut) ... They return 5 of 7, including the top 4 runners from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

178 - Callahan Fielder - 11 -- (177 183 144 172 182 174 174 174 172)
176 - Kehler Vaughn - 10 -- (176 177 171 172 173 175 168 169 164)
174 - Robert Pautienus - 12 -- (173 177 170 174 175 167 164 156 160)
160 - Wyatt Hamilton - 11 -- (154 157 152 156 163 159 150 149 159)
158 - Payne Fielder - 11 -- (154 156 151 152 161 155 155 154 156)
140 - Dillon Elliott - 12 -- (131 144 135)
140 - Wyatt Groth - 12 -- (140 140 130)

#30 - Great Oak (SS) CA ... Great Oak CA finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd in the California State Meet Merge ... They graduated 5 runners from those races, but return a good core of talent ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

180 - Gabriel Rodriguez - 12 -- (179 180 181 180 169 167 175 165)
172 - Jeffrey Keeney - 12 -- (172 171 171 173 159 163 156)
163 - Michael Rodriguez - 12 -- (163 155 164 162 154)
163 - Jacob Brown - 11 -- (164 160 154 147)
160 - Jack Paradise - 11 -- (161 157 149)
157 - Kai Marotta - 12 -- (154 152 159 157 150)

#31 - Cathedral (SS) CA ... Cathedral finished 13th at California State Meet Merge and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They return 5 of 7 runners (losing one scorer) ... Cathedral has a very strong top two runners which helped them get this ranking .... I'm assuming they will have another runner at a higher level this season (and I heard they may be getting a transfer) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

187 - Emmanuel Perez - 12 -- (185 189 187 181 183 181 171 170)
185 - Emmanuel Hernandez - 12 -- (182 175 175 186 186 152 171)
162 - Sebastian Skarr - 12 -- (164 155 154 154 139)
157 - Diego Guerrero - 12 -- (158 153 148 126 148 140)
152 - Geovanni Moreno - 12 -- (139 144 137 151 152 148 143 )

#32 - Farragut TN ... Farragut TN finished 9th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won NXR Southeast and the Tennessee State 3A Championship ... They return 3 of 7 runners (all scorers), so they start with a solid core of 3 runners ... I'm assuming they might develop some additional runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

181 - Matteo Tonnos - 12 -- (181 181 178 175 172 171 171)
180 - Braden Ebbert - 12 -- (173 181 179 175 177 174 173)
172 - Harrison Cunningham - 12 -- (172 172 163 169 162 165 170)
157 - Evan Beeler - 11 -- (157 156)
153 ? - Sam Shagan - 10 -- (141)
136 - Ross Tootle - 11 -- (131 137 135)
129 - Tyson Ebbert - 10 -- (129)

#33 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior ID finished 5th at NXR Northwest and did no compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd (to Rocky Mountain) at the Idaho State 5A Championship ... They return 5 of 7 runners, but graduated 2 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

178 - Kaden Helder - 12 -- (175 178 167 180)
173 - Noe Kemper - 12 -- (165 163 175 161 178 163)
166 - Jack Sheesley - 11 -- (165 167 162 164)
165 - Andrew Dodds - 12 -- (165 167 156 152 153)
157 - Jens Knutsen - 11 -- (160 155 118 142)
141 - Matthew Rauer - 11 -- (135 143)
141 - Jackson Fornander - 11 -- (137 126 144)

#-- - Grapevine TX ... Grapevine finished 19th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd at NXR South (behind Southlake Carroll) and won the Texas State 5A Championship ... They return 6 of 7 (losing one scorer) ... I'm assuming they will find a #5 scorer ... Update (July 29) - Top runner Adam Burlison is transferring to Amarillo High; therefore, Grapevine drops out of the top 32 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available (2022 seasonal ratings):

~~190 - Adam Burlison - 12 -- (182 191 186 190 185 187 184 182 176)~~ - Transferring
169 - Justin Leathers - 12 -- (163 168 170 170 162 161 157 155 154 142)
168 - Charles Smith - 11 -- (165 167 168 170 164 164 158 153 153 150)
164 - Blayne Bradford - 12 -- (163 165 161 164)
153 ? - Matthew Barborka - 12 -- (136 148 144 143 150 148 134 138 132 137)
146 - Truman Suh - 11 -- (143 147 140 144 136 137 135 )
145 - Ryan Kerr - 11 -- (128 142 144 150 127 144 139 146 )

NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.

Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ... Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.

Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections 2023

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2022 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.

 
California
    Ventura (SS)             CA       75   California
    Dana Hills (SS)          CA      125   California ** moved up due to transfer
    San Clemente (SS)        CA      130   California
    Trabuco Hills (SS)       CA      130   California
    Great Oak (SS)           CA      160   California
    Cathedral (SS)           CA      165   California
    Mira Costa (SS)          CA      170   California
    Buchanan (CS)            CA      175   California
    Newbury Park (SS)        CA      180   California
    Clovis East (CS)         CA      190   California
    Yosemite (CS)            CA      190   California
    Crystal Spr Uplands (CC) CA      190   California
    St. Francis (SS)         CA      200   California

Heartland
    Stevens Point            WI       55   Heartland
    Wayzata                  MN       59   Heartland
    Wichita Trinity Academy  KS      100   Heartland
    Dowling Catholic         IA      125   Heartland
    Madison West             WI      140   Heartland
    Minneapolis Southwest    MN      150   Heartland
    Mounds View              MN      160   Heartland
    Minnetonka               MN      160   Heartland
    Ankeny                   IA      175   Heartland
    Bismarck                 ND      180   Heartland

Midwest
    Carmel                   IN      140   Midwest
    Downers Grove (North)    IL      145   Midwest
    Noblesville              IN      145   Midwest
    Mason                    OH      185   Midwest
    Mas. Jackson             OH      195   Midwest
    Plainfield (South)       IL      200   Midwest
    Zionsville Community     IN      200   Midwest
    Barrington               IL      210   Midwest
    Marlington               OH      215   Midwest
    Hinsdale (Central)       IL      220   Midwest
    Liberty North            MO      230   Midwest
    LaGrange (Lyons)         IL      235   Midwest
    Arlington Heights Hersey IL      235   Midwest
    O'Fallon (H.S.)          IL      245   Midwest
    Plainfield (North)       IL      245   Midwest
    East Grand Rapids        MI      250   Midwest
       
New York (see NY Boys Projection Page)
   Fairport                  NY      185   New York
   St. Anthony's             NY      200   New York
   Saratoga Springs          NY      205   New York
   Arlington                 NY      225   New York
   Auburn                    NY      225   New York
   Ithaca                    NY      260   New York
   Rush-Henrietta            NY      300   New York
   Corning                   NY      300   New York
   Monroe-Woodbury           NY      300   New York
     *** (NY scores based on a 31 team simulation)

Northeast
    Christian Brothers Acad NJ        70   Northeast
    Union Catholic Reg HS   NJ       105   Northeast
    Westfield HS            NJ       130   Northeast
    Brookline               MA       155   Northeast
    Episcopal Academy       PA       175   Northeast
    Westford Academy        MA       195   Northeast
    Ridgefield              CT       210   Northeast
    North Allegheny         PA       220   Northeast
    Phillips Exeter Academy NH       220   Northeast
    Danbury                 CT       225   Northeast
    New Milford             CT       235   Northeast
    Bishop Hendricken HS    RI       245   Northeast
    LaSalle College         PA       250   Northeast
    Natick                  MA       280   Northeast
    St. Johnsbury Academy   VT       280   Northeast

Northwest
    Crater                  OR        55   Northwest
    Coeur d'Alene           ID       100   Northwest
    Seattle Preparatory     WA       110   Northwest
    Jesuit Portland         OR       115   Northwest
    Boise Senior            ID       125   Northwest
    Idaho Falls             ID       130   Northwest
    Rocky Mountain          ID       140   Northwest
    Star Valley             WY       160   Northwest
    Issaquah                WA       165   Northwest
    Central Kitsap          WA       175   Northwest

South
    Southlake Carroll       TX        70   South
    Jesuit New Orleans      LA        90   South
    Bentonville             AR       130   South
    Brother Martin          LA       155   South
    Lucas Lovejoy           TX       155   South
    Deer Creek              OK       160   South
    Austin Vandegrift       TX       175   South
    Grapevine               TX       190   South ** dropped due to transfer
    Edmond North            OK       210   South
    El Paso Franklin        TX       215   South
    Katy Tompkins           TX       220   South
    Owasso                  OK       235   South

Southeast
    Belen Jesuit Prep       FL        80   Southeast
    McCallie School         TN       100   Southeast
    University High         WV       120   Southeast
    Calvert Hall College HS MD       140   Southeast
    Brentwood High          TN       155   Southeast
    Farragut                TN       160   Southeast
    Vestavia Hills HS       AL       200   Southeast
    Indian Rocks Christian  FL       205   Southeast
    Westminster School      GA       210   Southeast
    Bolles HS               FL       235   Southeast
    Huntsville HS           AL       240   Southeast
    Christian Brothers      TN       250   Southeast
    Christopher Columbus HS FL       255   Southeast
    Hoggard                 NC       280   Southeast
    James Clemens           AL       285   Southeast

Southwest
    American Fork           UT        50   Southwest
    Herriman                UT        80   Southwest
    Riverton                UT        90   Southwest
    Valor Christian         CO       115   Southwest
    Niwot                   CO       125   Southwest
    Lone Peak               UT       130   Southwest
    The Classical Academy   CO       145   Southwest
    Orem                    UT       150   Southwest
    Skyridge                UT       165   Southwest