National Pre-Season XC 2021

GIRLS Teams - National 2021

Bill Meylan (August 9, 2021)

Girls - Contending National Teams
... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
Purpose
... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
Ranking Method
... General extension of the 2020 XC season into 2021
... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races (not applicable for 2021 season)
... Consider performance in championship races
... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2021 race results are what count.

I did add some Regional Projections ... But limited data for last XC season (due to Covid) was very limiting for my purpose.

National GIRLS Teams 2021

 

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2021

 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 30 teams 


      School                   State   Score    NXN Region
      --------------------     -----   -----    ----------
  1   Saratoga                   NY      90     New York
  2   Cherry Creek               CO     190     Southwest
  3   Summit                     OR     195     Northwest
  4   Minnetonka                 MN     250     Heartland
  5   Boise Senior               ID     260     Northwest
  6   Buchanan  (CS)             CA     300     California
  7   Edina                      MN     320     Heartland
  8   York                       IL     350     Midwest
  9   Arapahoe                   CO     360     Southwest
  10  Niwot                      CO     360     Southwest
  11  Valor Christian            CO     365     Southwest
  12  Ridgewood HS **            NJ     380 **  Northeast
  13  Flower Mound               TX     390     South
  14  Carmel                     IN     395     Midwest
  15  Fayetteville-Manlius       NY     400     New York
  16  IMG Academy                FL     410     Southeast
  17  Great Oak  (SS)            CA     415     California
  18  Saint Paul Highland Park   MN     430     Heartland
  19  Wayzata                    MN     430     Heartland
  20  Desert Vista               AZ     435     Southwest
  21  American Fork              UT     450     Southwest
  22  Ann Arbor Pioneer          MI     460     Midwest
  23  Lone Peak                  UT     465     Southwest
  24  Cuthbertson                NC     470     Southeast
  25  Mountain Vista             CO     500     Southwest
  26  Springville                UT     510     Southwest
  27  Bozeman                    MT     515     Northwest
  28  Naperville North           IL     520     Midwest
  29  Jesuit                     OR     520     Northwest
  30  Shaker                     NY     525     New York
  30  Bolles HS                  FL     525     Southeast
  30  Weddington                 NC     525     Southeast

       * Score depends on Camryn Wennersten running for the
       the Ridgewood team ... without her, score could add
       nearly 160 points. 
         

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled a lot:

      East Grand Rapids         MI      Midwest
      Highland High             AZ      Southwest
      Hil. Davidson             OH      Midwest
      Shenendehowa              NY      New York
      The Woodlands             TX      South
      Southlake Carroll         TX      South
      Lakeville South           MN      Heartland
      Grapevine                 TX      South
      Lucas Lovejoy             TX      South
      Yorkville                 IL      Midwest
      Columbus North            IN      Midwest
      Sioux Falls Lincoln       SD      Heartland
      Morgantown                WV      Southeast
      J.L. Mann                 SC      Southeast
      Lincoln East              NE      Heartland
      Loudoun Valley            VA      Southeast
      Shaker Hts.               OH      Midwest
      Olathe North              KS      Heartland
      Olathe West               KS      Heartland
      Middletown South HS       NJ      Northeast
      Farragut                  TN      Southeast

Where did the scores come from?
... 2020 Seasonal Speed Ratings
... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not many)
... Manual manipulation based on Guessing

General Comments for the Coming Season
... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
... Saratoga is the solid favorite based on retuning runners and speed ratings (and they are the defending NXN Champion)
... Cherry Creek won last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana and return their entire team (including a top National runner)
... Summit Oregon still appears to be very strong despite a limited XC season in the spring
... Minnesota has four quality teams in the top 19 and Colorado has four quality teams in the top 11
... Limited data for California and most Northeast States (and Northwest) is excluding teams I simply cannot project adequately

Comments on the TOP 25 Teams:

#1 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is the defending NXN Champion and a perennial competitor at NXN ... Saratoga has competed at NXN Nationals in 14 of the 16 years that NXN has operated ... In 2019, Saratoga won NXN Nationals by 82 points! ... They return 6 runners from that NXN team ... Additional data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

146 - Ella Kurto - 12
135 - Mackenzie Hart - 12
135 - Sheridan Wheeler - 11
135 - Emily Bush - 10
133 - Alycia Hart - 10
130 - Anya Belisle - 10
121 - Catherine Mongan - 12

#2 - Cherry Creek CO ... Cherry Creek did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Cherry Creek won last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana and return their entire team (including top runner Riley Stewart who can start the team scores with a low number at the National level, effectively making the team score count just four runners) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

152 - Riley Stewart - 12
134 - Shelby Balding - 12
125 - Addison Price - 11
121 - Addison Laughlin - 12
114 - Claire Semerod - 12
111 - Abigail Maclean - 12
108 - Baylor Wolfe - 10

#3 - Summit OR ... Summit finished 2nd at NXN in 2019 after winning impressively in 2018 ... Summit ran XC in the spring of 2021 and return 6 of 7 from the Central Oregon XC Classic (including their top 3) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

135 - Teaghan Knox - 12
127 - Makenzie McRae - 10
127 - Magdalene Williams - 12
125 - Payton McCarthy - 11
122 - Barrett Justema - 11
110 - Ashley Boone - 12
109 - Camille Broadbent - 11

#4 - Minnetonka MN ... Minnetonka tied with Edina and beat Wayzata at the Minnesota Section 6AA Championship last year (Edina won on 6th runner tie-break), and Minnetonka returns the top 6 finishers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

139 - Maya Mor - 11
124 - Kate Leblanc - 12
123 - Ella Graham - 10
120 - Elizabeth Weider - 10
118 - Avery Marasco-johnson - 9
102 - Abigail Downin - 8
100 - Kailey Lai - 10

#5 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They won the Idaho State 5A Championship last year, and return 6 of 7 from States) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

142 - Sammy Smith - 10
134 - Allie Bruce - 10
119 - Logan Smith - 12
118 - Jamie Hamlin - 12
117 - Annika Zuschlag - 12
115 - Lydia Nance - 11
102 - Mikella Tobin - 12

#6 - Buchanan CA ... Buchanan finished 5th at NXN in 2019 ... They return 3 of the top 4 runners from that NXN team ... Like most California teams, limited XC data from last year ... Approximate representative (and slightly guessed) returning speed ratings:

134 - Sydney Sundgren - 11
128 - Grace Hutchison - 11
124 - Caroline Mendyk - 11
117 - Kaylee Elliott - 12

#7 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 14th at NXN Nationals in 2019, 17th in 2018, 11th in 2017 and 12th in 2016 ... Edina won the Minnesota Section 6AA Championship last year (on a tie-breaker with Minnetonka) ... Edina returns 6 of 7 from that race (including the top 4) ... Edina has been able to reload nicely in recent years ... Edina finished 10th at last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana, but were missing a scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

129 - Maggie Wagner - 11
124 - Macy Iyer - 11
124 - Mary Velner - 10
118 - Lauren Cossack - 10
107 - Eleanor Hinkie - 9
107 - Ella Hinkie - 9
105 - Haley Rogers - 9

#8 - York IL ... York did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They won the Illinois ShaZam Championship last year (sort of an ad-hoc State meet), and return their entire team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

127 - Brooke Berger - 11
127 - Michaela Quinn - 10
117 - Bri Bennis - 11
116 - Katelyn Winton - 12
114 - Katherine Klimek - 10
103 - Maggie Owens - 10
95 - Erin Powers - 12

#9 - Arapahoe CO ... Arapahoe did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Arapahoe finished 2nd to Cherry Creek at the Colorado State 5A Championship, and return their top 5 runners from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

132 - Ava Mitchell - 11
128 - Emily Lamontagne - 11
122 - Ava Escorcia - 11
115 - Jordan Stead - 10
102 - Anna Bridges - 10
92 - Mia Cardello - 12
84 - Kayla Renner - 11

#10 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2019 and 5th the previous year ... Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship last year ... Niwot had 3 runners finish in the top 6 at the RunningLane National Championship last year (one graduated) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

143 - Mia Prok - 10
135 - Madison Shults - 11
113 - Cayden Justice - 10
110 - Lex Bullen - 11
107 - Eva Klingbeil - 12
99 - Sarah Perkins - 10
96 - Olivia Alessandrini - 10

#11 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 8th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Valor Christian finished 3rd at the Colorado State 5A Championship last year, and 2nd to Cherry Creek at last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana... They return 5 of 7 from the National meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

127 - Brooke Wilson - 11
121 - Jocelyn Millican - 11
118 - Lanie Szuch - 12
116 - Jordan Blankenship - 10
112 - Taylor Rorick - 11
107 - Suvina Heidt - 10
77 - Gracie Prosceno - 10

#12 - Ridgewood NJ ... Ridgewood finished 20th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last fall, top runner Camryn Wennersten did not run for Ridgewood High (she competed with the Garden State Track Club instead), and I do not know if she will be running for Ridgewood High this coming fall ... It makes a big difference for any preseason projections ... I have limited speed rating data for most Northeast teams, and currently, only Ridgewood is making this Top 30 which is based on speed ratings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

145 - Camryn Wennersten - 12
122 - Olivia Shattuck - 12
118 - AnnaMarie Tretola - 12
118 - Lily Williams - 12
110 - Caroline Deiss - 12
88 - Lucia Rabolli - 12

#13 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They were the Texas State 6A Champions last fall ... Flower Mound returns 4 of their top 5 finishers from States ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

132 - Natalie Cook - 12
124 - Allison Buemi - 12
121 - Samantha Humphries - 10
114 - Virginia Knight - 12
107 - Nicole Humphries - 10
97 - Emma McLaughlin - 11
90 - Kylie Brown - 10

#14 - Carmel IN ... Carmel did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They were the Indiana State Champions last year, and return 4 of 7 from the State Meet ... They were 5th at last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... Carmel typically has a big squad and an ability to reload ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

127 - Jasmine Klopstad - 11
121 - Alivia Romaniuk - 12
121 - Cara Naas - 10
119 - Jamie Klavon - 12
104 - Kara Wenzler - 10
85 - Lilian Rose - 12
82 - Chloe Del Carlo - 10

#15 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been the NXN champion in 11 of the last 14 NXN years ... FM finished 7th at NXN in 2019 after narrowly beating Saratoga at both NXR New York and NY States (and Saratoga went on to win NXN by 82 points) ... FM has the ability to reload, so they get credit for that and their success at NXN ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

133 - Hannah Kaercher - 11
132 - Izzy Sullivan - 9
118 - Debbie Lucchetti - 12
109 - Amelia Amack - 12
105 - Ani Sydorowych - 10
91 - Maria Khalifeh - 10
90 - Ava Beecher - 10

#16 - IMG Academy FL ... IMG Academy did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... IMG Academy won the Desert Twilight Festival in Arizona last fall and then finished 9th at last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... I'm guessing that IMG Academy might get some additional help at the 4th/5th positions ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

150 - Tatum David - 11
133 - Carly McNatt - 11
123 - Jais Ward - 10
100 - Eve Siff-Scherr - 10
99 - Mia Andreae - 11
61 - Lia Ganley - 12

#17 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 9th at NXN in 2019, 8th in 2018, 8th in 2017, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Doug Soles is no longer the coach at Great Oaks ... Great Oak won the Unattached/Club Sweeps at the Desert Twilight Festival in Arizona (overall speed ratings lower than IMG Academy) and then finished 8th at last year's XC Town USA Meet of Champions at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana (same team score IMG Academy) ... They returns 6 of 7 from the XC Town USA Meet of Champions ... Great Oak typically has depth and an ability to reload, so they get credit for that (and I have no data for other possible California teams that could be included here) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

127 - Kelli Gaffney - 11
124 - Ashling Fabian - 11
119 - Hannah Miller - 11
114 - Ameya Teli - 11
110 - Cailin Osborne - 11
100 - Meilani Castillo - 11

#18 - Saint Paul Highland Park MN ... Saint Paul Highland Park finished 3rd to Edina and Minnetonka at the Minnesota TCRC Cross Country Showcase ... and they return their entire team from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

138 - Molly Moening - 12
124 - Luna Scorzelli - 10
114 - Ellie Moore - 9
109 - Chloe Koch - 11
107 - Alexa Purdsack - 9
106 - Delia Johnson - 11
105 - Libby Roller - 10

#19 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Wayzata finished 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2018 and 7th the year before ... Wayzata won NXN Nationals in 2013 ... Wayzata graduated several runners, but they are a deep squad with an ability to reload ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

149 - Abbey Nechanicky - 11
120 - Grace Weber - 11
115 - Teegan Anderson - 11
110 - Grace Mignone - 11
105 - Ella Braufman - 12
90 - Nora Mickelson - 11
83 - Maddie Parker - 11

#20 - Desert Vista AZ ... Desert Vista did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Desert Vista won the Arizona State D1 championship and return 4 of the top five runners from that race ... Desert Vista finished 2nd to IMG Academy at the Desert Twilight Festival ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

148 - Lauren Ping - 11
138 - Katie Sigerud - 12
114 - Emily Littlefield - 11
104 - Chelsea Condon - 11
101 - Brooklyn Hanania - 10
100 - Bailee Christofis - 11
35 - Peyton Martin - 11

#21 - American Fork UT ... American Fork did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... The American Fork Girls finished 2nd to Lone Peak at the Utah State 6A Championship last fall ... They return all 7 runners from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

138 - Avalon Mecham - 10
120 - Avery Moore - 12
116 - Abigail Barlow - 12
109 - Natalie Jensen - 12
102 - Hazel Baird - 12
100 - Sadie Hess - 12
97 - Kailey Hopkins - 12

#22 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI ... Ann Arbor Pioneer did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They won the Michigan State D1 Championship last fall, and their top 6 runners from that race return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

140 - Rachel Forsyth - 10
133 - Cookie Baugh - 12
110 - Sarah Forsyth - 12
107 - Charlotte Batra - 12
95 - Emily Cooper - 11
77 - Lydia Bowman - 10
77 - Sylvia Sanok Dufallo - 10

#23 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 4th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Lone Peak won the Utah State 6A Championship last fall, but graduated two of the top five finishers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

120 - Eliza Mason - 12
117 - Katelyn Bybee - 12
116 - Taylor Rohatinsky - 12
113 - Shea Conroy - 12
110 - Mara Holmes - 12
90 - Amelia Ericksen - 11
82 - Kate Tew - 12

#24 - Cuthbertson NC ... Cuthbertson did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Cuthbertson won the North Carolina State 3A Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

132 - Alyssa Preisano - 11
126 - Lillian Nasta - 11
114 - Justine Preisano - 10
108 - Charlotte Bell - 10
97 - Stella Kermes - 10
95 - Marissa Bosland - 11
77 - Charli Montalvo - 12

#25 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last fall, Mountain Vista finished 4th at the Colorado State 5A Championship (behind Cherry Creek, Arapahoe, and Valor Christian), and won the RunningLane National Meet ... They return 4 of the top 6 from RunningLane ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

126 - Shayda Zarrin - 12
119 - Keira Gamily - 11
112 - Annie Romalia - 11
110 - Marin Smith - 10
102 - Brooke Adams - 11
94 - Addi Torres - 10
85 - Hadley Linder - 10

Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2021

NOTE ... the Covid pandemic limited my speed rating of some regions (especially California, the Northwest and Northeast), so limited representation exists and some good teams are not included.

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2020 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams that might need to be followed.

 
California
    ** Insufficient Speed Rating Data for enough
       California Teams **

Heartland 
    Minnetonka               MN       50   Heartland
    Edina                    MN       65   Heartland
    Saint Paul Highland Park MN       95   Heartland
    Wayzata                  MN      100   Heartland
    Lakeville South          MN      130   Heartland
    Sioux Falls Lincoln      SD      150   Heartland
    Lincoln East             NE      155   Heartland
    Olathe North             KS      160   Heartland
    Olathe West              KS      180   Heartland

Midwest
    York                     IL       65   Midwest
    Carmel                   IN       75   Midwest
    Ann Arbor Pioneer        MI      110   Midwest
    Naperville North         IL      115   Midwest
    East Grand Rapids        MI      120   Midwest
    Hil. Davidson            OH      120   Midwest
    Columbus North           IN      135   Midwest
    Yorkville                IL      145   Midwest
    Shaker Hts.              OH      150   Midwest

New York (see NY Girls Projection Page)
    Saratoga                 NY       30   New York
    Fayetteville-Manlius     NY      135   New York
    Shaker                   NY      195   New York
    Shenendehowa             NY      200   New York
    Corning                  NY      235   New York
    Cicero-North Syracuse    NY      300   New York
    Ursuline                 NY      345   New York
    North Rockland           NY      365   New York
    Pearl River              NY      365   New York
    Ward Melville            NY      375   New York
    Suffern                  NY      390   New York
    East Aurora              NY      400   New York
     *** (NY scores based on a 31 team simulation)

Northeast
    ** Insufficient Speed Rating Data for enough
       Northeast Teams **

Northwest
    Summit                   OR       30   Northwest
    Boise Senior             ID       39   Northwest
    Bozeman                  MT       75   Northwest
    Jesuit                   OR       80   Northwest
     ** Limited Northwest Data **

South
    Flower Mound             TX       45   South
    Grapevine                TX       65   South
    Southlake Carroll        TX       70   South
    The Woodlands            TX       70   South
    Lucas Lovejoy            TX       75   South

Southeast
    IMG Academy              FL       80   Southeast
    Cuthbertson              NC       85   Southeast
    Weddington               NC       90   Southeast
    Bolles HS                FL       95   Southeast
    J.L. Mann                SC      110   Southeast
    Morgantown               WV      115   Southeast
    Loudoun Valley           VA      120   Southeast
    Farragut                 TN      125   Southeast

Southwest 
    Cherry Creek             CO       70   Southwest
    Valor Christian          CO      110   Southwest
    Arapahoe                 CO      115   Southwest
    Niwot                    CO      120   Southwest
    American Fork            UT      135   Southwest
    Lone Peak                UT      135   Southwest
    Desert Vista             AZ      135   Southwest
    Mountain Vista           CO      150   Southwest
    Springville              UT      160   Southwest
    Highland High            AZ      165   Southwest