National Pre-Season XC 2020
BOYS Teams - National 2020
Bill Meylan (August 14, 2020)
NOTE ... the Covid-19 Pandemic has upset the 2020 Cross Country season ... However, I am posting these pre-season projections as if this would be a "normal" season, simply as a point of interest.
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2019 XC season into 2020
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2020 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2020
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 32 teams listed (and not just 22 teams)
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Newbury Park CA 180 California
2 Great Oak CA 210 California
3 Bellarmine College Prep CA 210 California
4 La Salle Academy RI 260 Northeast
5 Dana Hills CA 350 California
6 Skyridge UT 370 Southwest
7 Franklin OR 380 Northwest
8 Jesuit (Oregon) OR 380 Northwest
9 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 395 Southeast
10 Satellite FL 400 Southeast
11 Severna Park MD 410 Southeast
12 St. Charles East IL 415 Midwest
13 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 425 Northeast
14 Coe Brown Academy NH 425 Northeast
15 Southlake Carroll TX 435 South
16 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 450 New York
17 Fremont MI 455 Midwest
18 Jesuit (SJ) CA CA 455 California
19 South Eugene OR 460 Northwest
20 Columbus North IN 465 Midwest
21 American Fork UT 465 Southwest
22 Idaho Falls ID 475 Northwest
23 St. Xavier (Ohio) OH 475 Midwest
24 Loyola (SS) CA 480 California
25 Oakton VA 490 Southeast
26 New Trier IL 500 Midwest
27 Downingtown West PA 505 Northeast
28 York IL 505 Midwest
29 Saranac Lake NY 515 New York
30* The Woodlands TX 520 South
30* Dubuque Hempstead IA 540 Heartland
30* Prior Lake MN 540 Heartland
* These teams were moved up a bit to have at
least two teams from each region in the list.
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
Timpanogos UT Southwest
Foothill Technology CA California
Campolindo CA California
Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest
Orem UT Southwest
Woodridge OH Midwest
Liverpool NY New York
De La Salle (NC) CA California
Boerne Champion TX South
Harrison GA Southeast
Mason OH Midwest
Summit OR Northwest
Grapevine TX South
Coppell TX South
Carmel IN Midwest
Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest
Ridge HS NJ Northeast
Central Valley Senior WA Northwest
Los Alamos NM Southwest
Niwot CO Southwest
Weddington NC Southeast
Eden Prairie MN Heartland
Huntsville AL Southeast
Stevens Point WI Heartland
Scottsboro HS AL Southeast
Marietta GA Southeast
Bishop Hendricken RI Northeast
St. John's Prep MA Northeast
El Paso Eastwood TX South
Central (St. Joseph) MO Midwest
Davis (Utah) UT Southwest
Chapel Hill NC Southeast
Grafton VA Southeast
Century ND Heartland
Arlington WA Northwest
North Central WA Northwest
Brebeuf Jesuit Prep IN Midwest
Crescenta Valley CA California
North Allegheny PA Northeast
Preston ID Northwest
Desert Vista AZ Southwest
Lambert HS GA Southeast
Bartram Trail HS FL Southeast
Centennial MD Southeast
Stillwater MN Heartland
Vestavia Hills AL Southeast
Farmington UT Southwest
Concord NH Northeast
NewPort HS WA Northwest
Concord Carlisle MA Northeast
Bolles HS FL Southeast
Sioux City North IA Heartland
Xavier NY New York
Auburn AL Southeast
Newton South MA Northeast
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2019 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2019 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2019, I did not identify 2 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 8 of the top 12 teams at NXN 2019 were ranked in my pre-season top 10 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 15 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 4 of the top 5 teams above finished in the top 8 at NXN Nationals last year
- Newbury Park and Great Oak are projected to repeat as the top two teams.
#1 - Newbury Park CA ... Newbury Park is the defending NXN Champion (they beat Great Oak by 4 points at NXN), and were the top team in the California State Meet Merge (only 3 points better than Great Oak) ... Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN in 2018.
Newbury Park lost their top two runners to graduation, including NXN National winner Nico Young ... Typically, losses of that magnitude would seriously hamper that team's chances of winning the following year ... But Newbury Park is returning a very strong group of runners ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings below place them at the #1 position:
186 - Colin Sahlman - 11
182 - Nicholas Goldstein - 12
178 - Lex Young - 10
178 - Daniel Appleford - 11
176 - Leo Young - 10
174 - Thomas Mcdonnell - 12
160 - Aaron Cantu - 10
#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals the last two years, 6th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 5 runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team which is a major loss ... But Great Oak typically returns a talented core of runners and reloads ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
182 - John Worthy - 12
182 - Christian Simone - 12
181 - Mateo Joseph - 12
174 - Austin Montez - 12
168 - Cameron Smith - 11
166 - Scott Kiehn - 12
166 - Carson Smith - 11
#3 - Bellarmine College Prep CA ... Bellarmine College Prep finished 5th in last year's California State Meet Merge, but they return all 7 runners ... Based on the raw speed rating numbers, Bellarmine College Prep is actually the #2 team ... however, I gave extra credit to Great Oak due to their NXN experience and ability to reload ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
189 - Colin Peattie - 12
189 - Nolan Topper - 12
180 - Galen Topper - 12
173 - Clem Welsh - 12
170 - Aiden Theochung - 12
165 - Christian Yarwood - 12
160 - Ben Callon - 12
160 - Daniel Vaca - 12
#4 - La Salle Academy RI ... La Salle finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year, and return 5 of 7 runners from NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
191 - Jack Mcloughlin - 12
181 - Chase Leach - 12
176 - Alex Maxwell - 12
170 - Adam Thibodeau - 11
168 - Jack Casey - 11
166 - Lachlan Bishop - 11
158 - Blake Rogers - 12
#5 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year, and return 5 of 7 runners from NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
187 - Jai Johnson - 11
179 - Brandon Pizano - 12
171 - Gianni Viola - 12
170 - Ryan Broadhead - 12
166 - Joseph Moersch - 12
160 - Ethan Johnson - 12
#6 - Skyridge UT ... Skyridge did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 17th at NXR Southwest and 3rd in the merged Utah State Meet results ... Skyridge returns 6 runners from the Utah State including the top 5 ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
188 - Creed Thompson - 12
185 - Davin Thompson - 12
175 - Seth Wallgren - 11
166 - Jarren Barfuss - 12
162 - Kade Hansen - 12
156 - Erol Yellowhair - 11
151 - Derek Brock - 12
#7 - Franklin OR ... Franklin Oregon did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Northwest (but were not selected as an At-Large team) ... Franklin won the Oregon state Meet 6A race beating Jesuit ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races, but did lose their top runner ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
189 - Charlie Robertson - 12
178 - Jackson Buffonge - 12
176 - Charlie North - 11
167 - Daniel Fajardo - 12
160 - Paul Beaven - 11
143 - Craig Barber - 12
#8 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year, and 2nd at NXR Northwest ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXR and NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Ryan Schumacher - 12
176 - John Schuler - 11
174 - Jack Bennett - 12
167 - Aidan Alexander - 12
165 - Caden Hildenbrand - 11
162 - Stathi Davis - 12
154 - Brian Kennedy - 12
#9 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Southeast and won Florida State Meet 3A race ... Belen Jesuit Prep returns 6 of 7 runners including their top four ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
178 - Diego Gomez - 12
177 - Adam Magoulas - 11
173 - Javier Vento - 12
169 - Nicolas Hidalgo - 12
166 - Aiden Villasuso - 12
164 - Christian Fernandez - 12
162 - Sebastian Castillo - 12
#10 - Satellite FL ... Satellite did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 5th at NXR Southeast and won Florida State Meet 2A race ... Satellite returns 5 of 7 runners including their top two ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
185 - Justin Wilson - 11
182 - Gabriel Montague - 12
169 - Josh Stern - 12
165 - Dayton Law - 11
163 - Aidan Mason - 11
#11 - Severna Park MD ... Severna Park did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Southeast, but were not selected as an At-Large team ... They return 5 of 7 including their top two from NXR ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
182 - Jake Gelfand - 12
181 - Carson Sloat - 12
171 - Nick Benedict - 11
168 - James Glebocki - 11
160 - Philip Bansemer - 12
154 - Colin Leeds - 12
154 - Ronan Byrne - 11
#12 - St. Charles East IL ... St. Charles East finished 4th at NXN last year after being selected as an At-Large team (3rd at NXR Midwest) ... They return 4 of 7 runners ... I gave them extra credit for development at the #5 position ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
185 - Micah Wilson - 11
177 - Luke Schildmeyer - 12
176 - Zack Loomis - 12
165 - Connor Murphy - 12
155 - Matthew Connell - 12
152 - Payton Fischer - 12
#13 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Like the previous year, Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7 at NXN Nationals; however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Chris Desousa - 12
177 - Ben Santos - 12
173 - Jack Moran - 11
164 - Nicholas Sullivan - 10
158 - Chase Cauvin - 12
158 - Daniel DeMasi - 12
157 - Sean Elliott - 12
#14 - Coe Brown Academy NH ... Coe Brown did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th at NXR Northeast ... Coe Brown returns 6 of 7 runners including their top two ... The raw speed ratings actually place them ahead of Christian Brothers, but I gave CBA extra credit ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
178 - Aidan Cox - 10
175 - Luke Tkaczyk - 12
172 - Carter Sylvester - 12
167 - Wyatt Mackey - 12
165 - Logan Mihelich - 12
161 - Patrick Hill - 12
142 - Lars Hogne - 11
#15 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... Last year, Southlake Carroll finished 14th at NXN Nationals after winning the NXR South Regional ... Southlake Carroll returns only 3 of 7 from NXN and States, but Southlake Carroll commonly reloads quite nicely ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
180 - Solomon Chavez - 12
178 - Antonio Florcruz - 12
173 - Joe Gardner - 11
162 - Jayden Chambless - 12
162 - Isaac Chavez - 12
161 - Mason Alexander - 12
160 - Matthew Hetrick - 12
#16 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 12 years ... FM finished 11th at NXN last year, 5th in 2018, 2nd in 2017 and won NXN in 2014 ... They won NXR New York last year ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners, but they did lose 2 of their top 3 runners from NXN & NXR ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Boys Pre-Season Team Rankings page ... FM typically reloads quite nicely, so I gave them extra credit (their raw speed ratings place them lower than 16th) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
190 - Peyton Geehrer - 12
168 - James Peden - 12
166 - Jack Altimonda - 12
162 - Daniel Patrick - 11
152 - Ben Perry - 10
145 - Owen Snyder - 11
145 - William Seamans - 11
#17 - Fremont MI
... Fremont Michigan did not compete at NXN Nationals last year
... Michigan teams are not allowed by the State Association to compete
at NXN
... Fremont won the Michigan State Division 2 race ... They return 6 of
7 including the top 4 scorers ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
190 - Nathan Walker - 12
175 - Conor Somers - 11
167 - Joshua Zerfas - 12
165 - Ben Paige - 12
165 - Adam Ward - 12
165 - Owen Wagner - 12
165 - Aaron Ladd - 11
#18 - Jesuit (SJ) CA ... Jesuit (SJ) California did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... Jesuit (SJ) finished 4th in the California State Meet Merge, but were not selected as an At-Large team.
The NXN At-Large teams were selected the
night of the CA State Meet ... Shortly after posting my speed ratings
for CA State Meet, I got several inquiries regarding potential At-Large
selections ... and I responded that I had plugged-in various potential
teams and Jesuit (SJ) was one of the top 4 teams ... One reason I
would have selected them was their top runner Matt Strangio ... His low
team score (probably a 2 behind Nico Young's win) meant any Jesuit (SJ)
team score would effectively be counting only 4 runners at NXN in a 22
team race, and that was the advantage they needed ... My quick NXN
projection at that time placed Jesuit (SJ) at either finishing
11th or 12th at NXN ... But Jesuit (SJ) did not get selected ...
My final 2019 NXN
Predictions projected Newbury Park, Great Oak and
Dana Hills at 1st,2nd and 8th overall respectively, and they
finished 1st, 2nd and 8th.
Jesuit (SJ) returns 4 of 7 including 4 scorers from the State Meet (but they lose Matt Strangio to graduation) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Spencer Pickren - 12
176 - Michael Chambers - 12
170 - Jacob Swanson - 10
167 - Braden King - 11
158 - Ajani Salcido - 12
158 - Preston Conner - 11
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.