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National Pre-Season XC 2020
BOYS Teams - National 2020
Bill Meylan (August 14, 2020)
NOTE ... the Covid-19 Pandemic has upset the 2020 Cross Country season ... However, I am posting these pre-season projections as if this would be a "normal" season, simply as a point of interest.
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2020 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".
I did add some Regional Projections
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2020|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2020
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 32 teams listed (and not just 22 teams) School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 Newbury Park CA 180 California 2 Great Oak CA 210 California 3 Bellarmine College Prep CA 210 California 4 La Salle Academy RI 260 Northeast 5 Dana Hills CA 350 California 6 Skyridge UT 370 Southwest 7 Franklin OR 380 Northwest 8 Jesuit (Oregon) OR 380 Northwest 9 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 395 Southeast 10 Satellite FL 400 Southeast 11 Severna Park MD 410 Southeast 12 St. Charles East IL 415 Midwest 13 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 425 Northeast 14 Coe Brown Academy NH 425 Northeast 15 Southlake Carroll TX 435 South 16 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 450 New York 17 Fremont MI 455 Midwest 18 Jesuit (SJ) CA CA 455 California 19 South Eugene OR 460 Northwest 20 Columbus North IN 465 Midwest 21 American Fork UT 465 Southwest 22 Idaho Falls ID 475 Northwest 23 St. Xavier (Ohio) OH 475 Midwest 24 Loyola (SS) CA 480 California 25 Oakton VA 490 Southeast 26 New Trier IL 500 Midwest 27 Downingtown West PA 505 Northeast 28 York IL 505 Midwest 29 Saranac Lake NY 515 New York 30* The Woodlands TX 520 South 30* Dubuque Hempstead IA 540 Heartland 30* Prior Lake MN 540 Heartland * These teams were moved up a bit to have at least two teams from each region in the list. The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well. Timpanogos UT Southwest Foothill Technology CA California Campolindo CA California Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest Orem UT Southwest Woodridge OH Midwest Liverpool NY New York De La Salle (NC) CA California Boerne Champion TX South Harrison GA Southeast Mason OH Midwest Summit OR Northwest Grapevine TX South Coppell TX South Carmel IN Midwest Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest Ridge HS NJ Northeast Central Valley Senior WA Northwest Los Alamos NM Southwest Niwot CO Southwest Weddington NC Southeast Eden Prairie MN Heartland Huntsville AL Southeast Stevens Point WI Heartland Scottsboro HS AL Southeast Marietta GA Southeast Bishop Hendricken RI Northeast St. John's Prep MA Northeast El Paso Eastwood TX South Central (St. Joseph) MO Midwest Davis (Utah) UT Southwest Chapel Hill NC Southeast Grafton VA Southeast Century ND Heartland Arlington WA Northwest North Central WA Northwest Brebeuf Jesuit Prep IN Midwest Crescenta Valley CA California North Allegheny PA Northeast Preston ID Northwest Desert Vista AZ Southwest Lambert HS GA Southeast Bartram Trail HS FL Southeast Centennial MD Southeast Stillwater MN Heartland Vestavia Hills AL Southeast Farmington UT Southwest Concord NH Northeast NewPort HS WA Northwest Concord Carlisle MA Northeast Bolles HS FL Southeast Sioux City North IA Heartland Xavier NY New York Auburn AL Southeast Newton South MA Northeast *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
|Comments on the TOP 18 Teams:|
#1 - Newbury Park CA ... Newbury Park is the defending NXN Champion (they beat Great Oak by 4 points at NXN), and were the top team in the California State Meet Merge (only 3 points better than Great Oak) ... Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN in 2018.
Newbury Park lost their top two runners to graduation, including NXN National winner Nico Young ... Typically, losses of that magnitude would seriously hamper that team's chances of winning the following year ... But Newbury Park is returning a very strong group of runners ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings below place them at the #1 position:
186 - Colin Sahlman - 11
#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals the last two years, 6th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 5 runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team which is a major loss ... But Great Oak typically returns a talented core of runners and reloads ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
182 - John Worthy - 12
#3 - Bellarmine College Prep CA ... Bellarmine College Prep finished 5th in last year's California State Meet Merge, but they return all 7 runners ... Based on the raw speed rating numbers, Bellarmine College Prep is actually the #2 team ... however, I gave extra credit to Great Oak due to their NXN experience and ability to reload ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
189 - Colin Peattie - 12
#4 - La Salle Academy RI ... La Salle finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year, and return 5 of 7 runners from NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
191 - Jack Mcloughlin - 12
#5 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year, and return 5 of 7 runners from NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
187 - Jai Johnson - 11
#6 - Skyridge UT ... Skyridge did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 17th at NXR Southwest and 3rd in the merged Utah State Meet results ... Skyridge returns 6 runners from the Utah State including the top 5 ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
188 - Creed Thompson - 12
#7 - Franklin OR ... Franklin Oregon did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Northwest (but were not selected as an At-Large team) ... Franklin won the Oregon state Meet 6A race beating Jesuit ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races, but did lose their top runner ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
189 - Charlie Robertson - 12
#8 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year, and 2nd at NXR Northwest ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXR and NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Ryan Schumacher - 12
#9 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Southeast and won Florida State Meet 3A race ... Belen Jesuit Prep returns 6 of 7 runners including their top four ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
178 - Diego Gomez - 12
#10 - Satellite FL ... Satellite did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 5th at NXR Southeast and won Florida State Meet 2A race ... Satellite returns 5 of 7 runners including their top two ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
185 - Justin Wilson - 11
#11 - Severna Park MD ... Severna Park did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Southeast, but were not selected as an At-Large team ... They return 5 of 7 including their top two from NXR ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
182 - Jake Gelfand - 12
#12 - St. Charles East IL ... St. Charles East finished 4th at NXN last year after being selected as an At-Large team (3rd at NXR Midwest) ... They return 4 of 7 runners ... I gave them extra credit for development at the #5 position ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
185 - Micah Wilson - 11
#13 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Like the previous year, Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7 at NXN Nationals; however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Chris Desousa - 12
#14 - Coe Brown Academy NH ... Coe Brown did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th at NXR Northeast ... Coe Brown returns 6 of 7 runners including their top two ... The raw speed ratings actually place them ahead of Christian Brothers, but I gave CBA extra credit ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
178 - Aidan Cox - 10
#15 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... Last year, Southlake Carroll finished 14th at NXN Nationals after winning the NXR South Regional ... Southlake Carroll returns only 3 of 7 from NXN and States, but Southlake Carroll commonly reloads quite nicely ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
180 - Solomon Chavez - 12
#16 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 12 years ... FM finished 11th at NXN last year, 5th in 2018, 2nd in 2017 and won NXN in 2014 ... They won NXR New York last year ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners, but they did lose 2 of their top 3 runners from NXN & NXR ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Boys Pre-Season Team Rankings page ... FM typically reloads quite nicely, so I gave them extra credit (their raw speed ratings place them lower than 16th) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
190 - Peyton Geehrer - 12
#17 - Fremont MI ... Fremont Michigan did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... Michigan teams are not allowed by the State Association to compete at NXN ... Fremont won the Michigan State Division 2 race ... They return 6 of 7 including the top 4 scorers ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
190 - Nathan Walker - 12
#18 - Jesuit (SJ) CA ... Jesuit (SJ) California did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... Jesuit (SJ) finished 4th in the California State Meet Merge, but were not selected as an At-Large team.
The NXN At-Large teams were selected the night of the CA State Meet ... Shortly after posting my speed ratings for CA State Meet, I got several inquiries regarding potential At-Large selections ... and I responded that I had plugged-in various potential teams and Jesuit (SJ) was one of the top 4 teams ... One reason I would have selected them was their top runner Matt Strangio ... His low team score (probably a 2 behind Nico Young's win) meant any Jesuit (SJ) team score would effectively be counting only 4 runners at NXN in a 22 team race, and that was the advantage they needed ... My quick NXN projection at that time placed Jesuit (SJ) at either finishing 11th or 12th at NXN ... But Jesuit (SJ) did not get selected ... My final 2019 NXN Predictions projected Newbury Park, Great Oak and Dana Hills at 1st,2nd and 8th overall respectively, and they finished 1st, 2nd and 8th.
Jesuit (SJ) returns 4 of 7 including 4 scorers from the State Meet (but they lose Matt Strangio to graduation) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
179 - Spencer Pickren - 12
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ... Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.
|Last Year's (2019) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2019 Pre-Season Projection ------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Great Oak CA 200 California 1 Newbury Park CA #5 pre-season 2 Loudoun Valley VA 201 Southeast 2 Great Oak CA #1 pre-season 3 Corner Canyon UT 220 Southwest 3 Corner Canyon UT #3 pre-season 4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 240 New York 4 St. Charles East IL #9 pre-season 5 Newbury Park CA 245 California 5 Western Albemarle VA #30+ group pre-season 6 York IL 265 Midwest 6 La Salle Academy RI #17 pre-season 7 The Woodlands TX 300 South 7 Dakota Ridge CO #8 pre-season 8 Dakota Ridge CO 340 Southwest 8 Dana Hills CA #28 pre-season 9 St. Charles East IL 345 Midwest 9 Wheaton Warrensville So IL #11 pre-season 10 Tahoma Senior WA 350 Northwest 10 Loudoun Valley VA #2 pre-season 11 Wheaton Warrenville So IL 351 Midwest 11 Fayetteville-Manlius NY #4 pre-season 12 Christian Brothers NJ 365 Northeast 12 York IL #6 pre-season 13 El Paso Eastwood TX 375 South 13 Mountain Vista CO #26 pre-season 14 Lewis And Clark WA 385 Northwest 14 Southlake Carroll TX #18 pre-season 15 Dublin CA 386 California 15 The Woodlands TX #7 pre-season 16 Clovis North-CS CA 390 California 16 Christian Brother Acad NJ #12 pre-season 17 La Salle Academy RI 391 Northeast 17 Jesuit OR #20 pre-season 18 Southlake Carroll TX 395 South 18 Burnt Hills NY unranked 19 Bishop Hendricken RI 400 Northeast 19 Mounds View MN #30+ group pre-season 20 Jesuit OR 410 Northwest 20 Kamiakin WA #27 pre-season 21 Huntsville AL 420 Southeast 21 Stevens Point WI unranked 22 Davis UT UT 430 Southwest 22 El Paso Eastwood TX #13 pre-season 23 Bellarmine-CCS CA 440 California 24 Hersey IL 450 Midwest 25 Middleton WI 455 Heartland 26 Mountain Vista CO 460 Southwest 27 Kamiakin WA 465 Northwest 28 Dana Hills CA 470 California 29 Oswego East IL 475 Midwest 30 Dowling Catholic IA 480 Heartland
|Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections 2019|
Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.
Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2018 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams get excluded).
I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.
California Newbury Park CA 65 California Great Oak CA 75 California Bellarmine College Prep CA 75 California Dana Hills CA 115 California Jesuit (SJ) CA 145 California Loyola (SS) CA 155 California Foothill Technology CA 160 California Campolindo CA 160 California De La Salle (NC) CA 170 California Crescenta Valley CA 210 California Heartland Dubuque Hempstead IA 80 Heartland Prior Lake MN 80 Heartland Eden Prairie MN 85 Heartland Stevens Point WI 90 Heartland Century ND 90 Heartland Stillwater MN 105 Heartland Sioux City North IA 110 Heartland Midwest St. Charles East IL 120 Midwest Fremont MI 135 Midwest Columbus North IN 135 Midwest St. Xavier (Ohio) OH 140 Midwest New Trier IL 140 Midwest York IL 150 Midwest Woodridge OH 155 Midwest Ann Arbor Pioneer MI 165 Midwest Mason OH 165 Midwest Carmel IN 170 Midwest Central (St. Joseph) MO 185 Midwest Brebeuf Jesuit Prep IN 195 Midwest New York (see NY Boys Projection Page) Saranac Lake NY 210 New York Fayetteville-Manlius NY 220 New York Liverpool NY 225 New York Xavier NY 260 New York Beaver River NY 335 New York Saratoga NY 355 New York Northport NY 360 New York Monroe-Woodbury NY 365 New York Shenendehowa NY 370 New York Northeast La Salle Academy RI 60 Northeast Christian Brothers Acad NJ 85 Northeast Coe Brown Academy NH 85 Northeast Downingtown West PA 120 Northeast Ridge HS NJ 135 Northeast Bishop Hendricken RI 145 Northeast St. John's Prep MA 145 Northeast North Allegheny PA 150 Northeast Concord NH 165 Northeast Concord Carlisle MA 170 Northeast Newton South MA 180 Northeast Northwest Jesuit (Oregon) OR 90 Northwest Franklin OR 90 Northwest South Eugene OR 105 Northwest Idaho Falls ID 110 Northwest Summit OR 130 Northwest Central Valley Senior WA 145 Northwest Arlington WA 155 Northwest North Central WA 155 Northwest Preston ID 160 Northwest NewPort HS WA 175 Northwest South Southlake Carroll TX 55 South The Woodlands TX 75 South Boerne Champion TX 80 South Grapevine TX 80 South Coppell TX 90 South El Paso Eastwood TX 90 South Southeast Belen Jesuit Prep FL 130 Southeast Satellite FL 135 Southeast Severna Park MD 140 Southeast Oakton VA 165 Southeast Weddington NC 200 Southeast Scottsboro HS AL 215 Southeast Harrison GA 215 Southeast Huntsville AL 220 Southeast Marietta GA 225 Southeast Chapel Hill NC 230 Southeast Grafton VA 235 Southeast Lambert HS GA 250 Southeast Centennial MD 250 Southeast Bartram Trail HS FL 255 Southeast Vestavia Hills AL 265 Southeast Bolles HS FL 280 Southeast Auburn AL 285 Southeast ** Note - neither Loudoun Valley nor Western Albemarle had sufficient 2019 data to warrant inclusion in this list. Southwest Skyridge UT 75 Southwest American Fork UT 80 Southwest Timpanogos UT 100 Southwest Orem UT 110 Southwest Los Alamos NM 120 Southwest Niwot CO 125 Southwest Davis UT 130 Southwest Desert Vista AZ 140 Southwest Farmington UT 150 Southwest