• What good are Pre-Season Rankings?
•  ... Useful in gathering background information for the upcoming season
•  ... Topic of conversion during the summer
•  ... Not used for any rankings once the season starts
• Pre-Season Team Ranking Problems:
•  ... Based largely on last year's XC results
•  ... Some runners improve significantly or lose interest
•  ... Some runners quit or transfer
•  ... One runner can have a big impact on team score (plus or minus)
•  ... Unknowns - Requires some subjective "guessing" by me.
•  ... If data for 5 runners on a team was not available or guess-able, team likely excluded
•  ... Covid 19 caused problems in terms of types of races contested and Fewer NY Races speed-rated (especially dual meets).

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested.

NOTE ... Some teams are not included because I did not speed rate most Dual Meets and they did not race in other races I did speed rate!

                   Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2021


         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 31 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Saratoga                 30     (02-A )
    2    Fayetteville-Manlius    135     (03-A )
    3    Shaker                  195     (02-A )
    4    Shenendehowa            200     (02-A )
    5    Corning                 235     (04-A )
    6    Cicero-North Syracuse   300     (03-A )
    7    Ursuline                345     (01-A )
    8    North Rockland          365     (01-A )
    9    Pearl River             365     (01-B )
    10   Ward Melville           375     (11-A )
    11   Suffern                 390     (01-A )
    12   East Aurora             400     (06-B )
    13   Bethlehem               405     (02-A )
    14   Niskayuna               410     (02-A )
    15   Honeoye Falls-Lima      430     (05-B )
    16   Cornwall                435     (09-A )
    17   Burnt Hills             460     (02-B )
    18   Eastport-S Manor        465     (11-A )
    19   Northport               470     (11-A )
    20   Churchville-Chili       480     (05-A )
    21   Orchard Park            480     (06-A )
    22   Syosset                 490     (08-A )
    23   Clarence                510     (06-A )
    24   Ballston Spa            515     (02-A )
    25   Pittsford Mendon        533     (05-B )
    26   Pittsford Sutherland    535     (05-B )
    27   Scarsdale               540     (01-A )
    28   St. Anthonys            550     (CHSAA)
    29   East Islip              570     (11-A )
    30   North Shore             575     (08-B )
    31   Guilderland             600     (02-A )

• Where did the scores come from?
•  ... 2020 Seasonal Speed Ratings
•  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
•  
• Uncertainty Factors
•  ... Ability of a team to "reload" after significant loses (graduation, transfer, etc)
•  ... Impact of new runners ... my term for this is "New Blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc)
•  ... Will returning runners improve??
•  ... Team Depth ... Impact of Injury or Illness
•  ... Impact of runners who decide to quit

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 31 teams to show some depth.

In General ... Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius are the top teams overall in New York State entering the 2020 XC season ... Saratoga is the defending NXN National Champion from 2019 and they return six runners from that NXN team ... Saratoga will be the #1-ranked team in the Pre-season National Rankings.

Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and other teams have additional comments below in the Class A section ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Girls are also available.

The Covid problems of last year make any projection uncertain, and this is just an informational starting point.

Additional comments and information are given below by Class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Saratoga                 30     (02-A )
    2    Fayetteville-Manlius    130     (03-A )
    3    Shaker                  185     (02-A )
    4    Shenendehowa            185     (02-A )
    5    Corning                 215     (04-A )
    6    Cicero-North Syracuse   270     (03-A )
    7    Ursuline                280     (01-A )
    8    North Rockland          290     (01-A )
    9    Ward Melville           300     (11-A )
    10   Suffern                 320     (01-A )
    11   Bethlehem               325     (02-A )
    12   Niskayuna               326     (02-A )
    13   Cornwall                350     (09-A )
    14   Eastport-S Manor        370     (11-A )
    15   Northport               375     (11-A )
    16   Churchville-Chili       380     (05-A )
    17   Orchard Park            381     (06-A )
    18   Syosset                 395     (08-A )
    19   Clarence                400     (06-A )
    20   Ballston Spa            410     (02-A )
    21   Scarsdale               420     (01-A )
    22   East Islip              450     (11-A )
    23   Guilderland             500     (02-A )
		

Like the last two years, Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius are the top-ranked teams in Class A and in NY State overall.

Saratoga won NXN Nationals 2019 handily and 6 of the 7 runners from NXN 2019 are still on the team ... Last fall XC season during the Covid pandemic, Section 2 conducted "races" by having one team run a time trial on the course, leave the course, and the next team would arrive at the course and run their time trial (times were merged to determine the order of finish and winner) ... The Saratoga girls team was not able to run any post-season XC races ... But their speed ratings clearly indicated that Saratoga was the top team in the nation ... Saratoga seems to be at least 7 runners deep at a high level (and maybe even more than 7 runners this coming fall).

Fayetteville-Manlius appears to be the 2nd-best team in NY entering the fall season ... The top five returning runners have best speed ratings ranging from 132 to 105 ... Spring track performances by then 8th-grader Izzie Sullivan suggest improved speed ratings (perhaps in the 130s).

Shaker, Shenendehowa and Corning are all solid teams with talent ... Adding one or more talented scorers could make a big difference!

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2020
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Saratoga
  Ella Kurto            12    147     147 137 132 139 140 138 130 134
  Mackenzie Hart        12    137     137 136 132 137 131 134 128 125
  Sheridan Wheeler      11    137     137 136 121 132 136 133 124 123
  Emily Bush            10    134     134 131 134 133 130 127 127
  Alycia Hart           10    134     123 134 90 126 123 123 127 113
  Anya Belisle          10    134     134 131 123 126 120 115 113 111
  Catherine Mongan      12    123     123 104 115 106 104 97 102 94
  Sadie McBain          12    98      98 85 82 94 98 91 76 62
  Claire Cuneo          11    94      93 88 89 94 92 78 84 79

Fayetteville-Manlius
  Hannah Kaercher       11    132     132 131 117 124
  Debbie Lucchetti      12    118     118 118
  Izzie Sullivan        9     114++   114 113 91 81
  Amelia Amack          12    109     108 109 98 99
  Ani Sydorowych        10    105     87 94 105
  Maria Khalifeh        10    91      60 91 69 63
  Ava Beecher           10    90      90 89 72 77
  Emma Levy             10    71      59 71 60 52
  Catherine Walters     9     63      50 62 63

Shaker
  Leonni Griffin        10    131     131 130 124 130 126 125 127
  Kaleigh Higgins       11    124     111 115 124 118 119 121
  Alyssa Kearns         10    112     105 112 98 83 96
  Andie Harding         12    112     105 112 98 109
  Charlotte Dunkel      9     103     98 103
  Natalie Bennett       11    94      77 94 89 75 80
  Lilla Korniss         11    91      66 91 83 73 76
  Birtu Diefenderfer    11    87      64 86 76 80 87
  Ciara Bullington      12    84      40 84 80 64 73
  Alyssa Caiano         9     83      63 83 72 61

Shenendehowa
  Luccabella Hotaling   12    131     131 128 122 111 122 121
  Brenna McLaughlin     11    113     85 108 112 105 113 110 105
  Carolyn Griffin       12    109     100 103 109 105 101 102 97
  Kyla Klingbeil        11    106     82 95 106 67 97 97 93 94
  Kara Sinnott          11    101     101 93 99 76 93 96
  Skyler Knott          11    101     89 84 101 97 95
  Emily Berg            12    99      84 88 85 99 88 92 88 87
  Julia Hendricks       11    95      72 78 95 84 93 87 77 88
  Sophia Colon          11    91      71 91 88 76
  Johanna Zawada        12    81      80 62 65 81 79 75
  Nicole Gretzinger     12    80      70 80 61 55 73 72 61

Corning
  Faithe Ketchum        12    136     136 117 125 126 120 112 111
  Sarah Lawson          10    130     128 125 125 129 130 125 128
  Sadie Beres           10    106     94 102 92 92 106 91 90
  Brianna Urban         12    98      84 98 98 75 76 82
  Ella Grinnell         10    89      89
  Cristina Gaskievicz   12    87      81 87 73 32 51
  Cassandra Collins     11    70      70
  Olivia Grinnell       12    65      65 45

Cicero-North Syracuse
  Kate Putman           11    139     139 121 133 135 139 134 129 129
  Marissa Navarra       11    116     113 112 110 116 113 108 103
  Gabby Putman          9     106     99 104 106 103 86
  Kate Capone           12    91      76 71 91 82 74 71
  Katy Harbold          9     79      62 68 79 62 65
  Cameron Sisk          9     78      63 62 78 69 61
  Morgan Kingdeski      12    77      63 72 77 67 72
  Hannah Reichard       12    72      54 35 70 50 52 72

Ursuline
  Daphne Banino         12    137     134 137 133 131 125 132 131
  Tara Doyle            11    108     92 96 103 108
  Kate Nugent           11    98      70 73 83 90 82 98
  Stella Gassman        12    98      59 -5 98 97 94 86
  Jenna Cain            11    88      79 74 84 88 87 84
  Alexa Grassi          11    86      74 53 82 79 86
  Rory Keane            12    72      37 72 69 61 49
  Evie Gassman          10    65      45 65
  Kelly Geoghegan       9     61      61

North Rockland
  Jade Pazmino          12    117     117 112 111 99 108
  Savannah Pezzementi   9     113     100 101 113 100 103
  Gianna Dellamedaglia  12    113     111 113 108 100 108
  Meghan Gormley        10    88      79 88 84 69 86
  Cara Fagelman         12    85      60 63 78 62 85
  Gabby Gonzalez        12    53      49 49 53
  Kaelyn Prince         10    48      48 29

Ward Melville
  Julia Bell            12    119     119 111 104 107
  Amanda Probst         10    105     100 92 103 105
  Victoria Laguerre     12    97      91 88 94 97
  Alexis Bell           12    93      93 87 72
  Laura Liebowitz       12    91      91 68
  Abigail Dimaculangan  11    77      77 77
  Katelyn Giordano      12    72      72 69

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Pearl River              85     (01-B )
    2    East Aurora              95     (06-B )
    3    Honeoye Falls-Lima       96     (05-B )
    4    Burnt Hills             110     (02-B )
    5    Pittsford Mendon        135     (05-B )
    6    Pittsford Sutherland    135     (05-B )
    7    North Shore             145     (08-B )
    8    Sayville                155     (11-B )
    9    Tappan Zee              170     (01-B )
    10   Mohonasen               190     (02-B )
		

Pearl River won the 2020 Section 1 Regional Merge (all classes), but lost two runners to graduation.

East Aurora won the Section 6 Class B2 Championship and return a solid top-three runners.

Honeoye Falls-Lima won the Section 5 Class B Championship and return all seven runners.

Burnt Hills returns their top 4 runners from the Suburban Council Championship.

Class B could be quite interesting ... The top teams are not separated by much.

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2020
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Pearl River
  Una Boylan            12    132     132 124 121 116 102
  Kristen Gazzara       9     110     110 105 85 91
  Madyson Moroney       10    107     107 89 95 89
  Claire O'Sullivan     10    95      90 95 86 79
  Anna Ginnane          11    71      71 71 55 42
  Maura Durcan          10    70      70 63
  Aoife Fitzgerald      12    62      44 36 62 36
  Samantha Muldoon      11    60      60 46

East Aurora
   Emilia O'Leary       9     131     131 124
   Megan McLaughlin     12    126     124 126
   Kailyn Houghton      8     115     115 104
   Samantha Hulme       11    80      77 80
   Riley Hulme          9     57      57 53
   Arrow Hess           9     44      44

Honeoye Falls-Lima
  Ann Brennan           12    119     114 119
  Paige Kidd            10    102     102
  Anna Everhart         12    100     100
  Teagan Kamm           12    88      88
  Sophie Bagley         11    82      82
  Ella Henzel-Cronin    12    81      81
  Molly Kraynik         11    76      76

Burnt Hills
  Mia Paolino           10    117     117 112 104 108 101 109
  Jamisen Vendetti      12    103     86 97 94 103 94 85 98
  Isabel Vogel          12    99      70 99 95 94 88 85 98
  Mia Malizia           9     92      92 88 73 73 40
  Alyssa Bleyl          11    54      45 48 54 49 36 45
  Seri Hartwell         11    50      49 48 50 25 -2 43
  Mattingly O'Rourke    12    43      43 35 41 38 30 28 36

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Voorheesville            85     (02-C )
    2    Newfane                  86     (06-C )
    3    Norwood-Norfolk          95     (10-C )
    4    Clinton                 100     (03-C )
    5    Waterloo                120     (05-C )
    6    Wheatley                125     (08-C )
    7    Irvington               140     (01-C )
    8    Babylon                 145     (11-C )
    9    Allegany-Lime           160     (06-C )
		

Like other classes, the Class C rankings include only teams with available speed ratings for 2020 ... Unfortunately, some teams will not be included ... and limited speed rating data were available for the 2020 season.

Voorheesville finished a very close 2nd in the Colonial Council XC Championship contested in May 2021 ... Newfane was the Section 6 C1-Champion.

Lots of uncertainty in these projections ... and I'm not sure if Norwood-Norfolk will be Class C or Class D.

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2020
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Voorheesville
  Mariem Sayahi         11    112     112
  Caitlin McCarthy      11    88      88
  Victoria Iacubucci    12    71      71
  Merrin Brick          11    65      65
  Alannah McCarthy      8     58      58
  Ivy Smith             9     53      53
  Devonne Gibson        11    43      43

Newfane
  Kylie Bowman          10    113     113 108
  Leah Siegmann         12    98      97 98
  Catalina Ersing       11    89      89 89
  Sara Siegmann         10    51      51 47
  Shelby Nerber         12    49      48 49

Norwood-Norfolk
  Madelyn Dinneen       12    119     119 119
  Sharon Colbert        11    111     111 95
  Rachel Hewey          10    90      90
  Lauren Sweet          12    56      56
  Madison Ashley        9     31      31
  Madison O'Brien       9     21      21

Clinton
  Bri Urban             12    80      80
  Sophie Boucek         11    78      78
  Paige Luke            11    67      67
  Finley Davignon       12    56      54 56
  Jessica Gale          12    56      56
  Leah Borton           12    41      41
  Wynnyn Davignon       9     24      24

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    South Lewis              50     (03-D )
    2    Honeoye Central          55     (05-D )
    3    Delhi                    70     (04-D )
    4    Oriskany                 90     (03-D )
    5    Maple Grove              91     (06-D )
    6    Clymer-Sherman          100     (06-D )
		

South Lewis is dropping from Class C to Class D ... They have a very strong top three for Class D, and that makes them the favorite (but they need a #5).

Honeoye Central handily won the Section 5 Class D title last fall, and they have five returning runners ... Delhi is the 2019 State Class D Champion and will likely contend for the Class D title again this fall.

As normal, lots of uncertainty in projecting the other Class D teams (it's a guess at this point) ..... Talented new runners can have a major impact on team scoring, especially at the small school level.

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2020
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
South Lewis
  Brynn Bernard         10    137     126 137 124 124 112
  Lexi Bernard          12    118     108 107 118 108
  Mallory Kraeger       10    101     85 101 87
  Grace Bailey          10    55      55 45 29

Honeoye Central
  Cora Gillette         9     95      95 69
  Zara Olsen            8     81      74 81
  Payden Mortenson      12    78      78 71
  Jewel Olsen           11    75      75 72
  Clare Griffin         11    59      59 56

Delhi
  Anna Tessier          12    88      78 87 81 88
  Gretel Hilson-Schneider 10  81      80 71 81 80
  Ellie Lees            10    58      51 58 55 33
  Abi Tessier           9     57      45 57 54
  Sienna Dorr           12    33      33 32 26
  Lucia Marsiglio       12    29      25 29
  Meghan Hadley         10    22      21 22

Oriskany
  Paris Welker          12    108     108
  Jordyn Carlo          12    78      78
  Alexis Lasher         12    57      57
  Kylie Thierry         11    32      32

Maple Grove
  Abby Brunenavs        12    91      86 91 74 85
  Allison Bohall        10    74      74 70 64 52
  Hannah Tarbrake       12    60      60 60 52 51
		

 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    St. Anthony's            55     (CHSAA)
    2    Kellenberg               90     (CHSAA)
    3    Sacred Heart            100     (CHSAA)
    4    St. Joseph Hill         105     (CHSAA)
    5    Notre Dame (Manhattan)  140     (CHSAA)
    6    Nardin Academy          141     (CHSAA)
    7    Our Lady Mercy          175     (CHSAA)
    8    Monsignor McClancy      180     (CHSAA)
    9    St. Francis Prep        190     (CHSAA)
    10   Archbishop Molloy       195     (CHSAA)
		

The PSAL and NYSAIS teams are not represented here because, with rare exceptions, they did not compete in XC due to Covid ... The CHSAA ran a decently full schedule that I did speed rate ... So the Catholic schools comprise this group.

St. Anthony's won the CHSAA Championship A race last fall (won by 34 points over Notre Dame Academy).

Notre Dame Academy is not included in the team scores above ... They have a solid core of three returning runners [Lola Dinneen (117), Alyssia Brown (104) and Meghan Leonard (94)], but no other runners after that, so I excluded them ... With a couple of "new" runners, they would be a contender.

As normal, lots of uncertainty for most of the teams in the CHSAA-PSAL-AIS grouping entering a new season ... Just one or two new runners, transfers, etc. for any team will make a major difference.

Some CHSAA Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2020
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Caelan Schretzmayer   12    101     101 100 91
  Kiera Udell           11    97      97 93
  Blair Davi            12    90      90 89 87
  Lauren Matyka         11    90      83 90 88
  Emma Rodriguez        11    69      69 59
  Katherine Mconnalie   10    61      61
  Lindsey Yakaboski     11    43      32 43
  Erin Boyd             12    40      40

Kellenberg
  Kathleen Healy        12    86      75 86
  Tess Rundo            12    84      78 84 43
  Kelsey Nichols        10    82      82
  Jillian Tocco         11    71      70 71 56
  Isabella Coschignano  12    70      67 53 70 38
  Caleigh Hopkins       11    65      65 40 34
  Saniya Hayden         11    38      38 33

Sacred Heart
  Devin Parchment       11    84      84 78 60
  Brigid Byrnes         11    81      81 77 60
  Ellie Ruane           12    81      81
  Lili Depaulo          10    74      74 69
  Kim Hopkins           12    59      59
  Kimberly Hopkins      12    51      51
  Deirdre Nolty         12    40      27 40
  Courtney Cummings     12    34      34
  Shannon Maier         12    33      33
  Mary Dublynn          10    31      31

St. Joseph Hill
  Ava Gumb              10    91      86 91
  Paige Jerrahian       11    78      78 63 69 66 59
  Angela Cavalieri      12    78      78 68 68 70
  Diana Cavalieri       11    71      71 56
  Jamie Murray          12    53      47 27 53
  Giana Spagnuolo       10    52      52
  Samantha Vuoso        12    43      27 25 43 31 34
  Mary Moore            11    33      18 24 28 33