National Pre-Season XC 2021
BOYS Teams - National 2021
Bill Meylan (August 11, 2021)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2020 XC season into 2021
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races (not applicable for 2021 season)
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2021 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections ... But limited data for last XC season (due to Covid) was very limiting for my purpose
NOTE About CALIFORNIA TEAMS ... Limited & Incomplete XC Data for 2020 caused me to exclude ALL California teams except Newbury Park ... The track data alone is not good for my purposes ... So potentially good CA teams are excluded below for preseason guessing.
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2021
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 30 teams listed
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Newbury Park (SS) CA 60 California
2 Jesuit OR 185 Northwest
3 Cheyenne Mountain CO 240 Southwest
4 Brebeuf Jesuit Prep IN 255 Midwest
5 Mountain Vista CO 280 Southwest
6 Farmington UT 315 Southwest
7 Columbus North IN 320 Midwest
8 Hamilton Southeastern IN 345 Midwest
9 North Allegheny PA 345 Northeast
10 American Fork UT 345 Southwest
11 Grapevine TX 345 South
12 Ridge HS NJ 390 Northeast
13 Niwot CO 400 Southwest
14 Hamilton MT 420 Northwest
15 Carmel IN 425 Midwest
16 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 430 Northeast
17 Caledonia MI 435 Midwest
18 Millard West NE 450 Heartland
19 Wayzata MN 450 Heartland
20 Center Grove IN 455 Midwest ** (updated place)
21 Pace Academy GA 455 Southeast
22 Fremont NE 460 Heartland
23 Burnt Hills NY 460 New York
24 St. Thomas Aquinas KS 460 Heartland
25 Deer Creek OK 460 South
26 Hilliard Davidson OH 460 Midwest
27 Skyridge UT 470 Southwest
28 Desert Vista AZ 485 Southwest
29 Sioux City North IA 485 Heartland
30 Southlake Carroll TX 485 South
31* Corning NY 500 New York
* Moved up a bit to have at two teams from
New York region in the list.
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
Bishop Hendricken HS RI Northeast
The Woodlands TX South
Huntsville HS AL Southeast
Festus MO Midwest
Lincoln HS OR Northwest
Viera HS FL Southeast
La Salle Academy RI Northeast
Rock Bridge MO Midwest
Marietta GA Southeast
Xavier CT Northeast
Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest
Fort Mill SC Southeast
Bloomington North IN Midwest
Scottsboro HS AL Southeast
Rocky Mountain ID Northwest
Butler PA Northeast
Desert Hills UT Southwest
Dorman SC Southeast
St. Xavier OH Midwest
University High WV Southeast
Atascocita TX South
El Paso Eastwood TX South
Stillwater MN Heartland
Davis UT Southwest
Denton High TX South
Mount Tabor NC Southeast
Floyd Central IN Midwest
Spartanburg SC Southeast
Conner KY Southeast
Stevens Point WI Heartland
Edina MN Heartland
Corner Canyon UT Southwest
Friendswood TX South
Rapid City Stevens SD Heartland
Sentinel MT Northwest
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2020 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... Unfortunately, I had to exclude California teams (and other teams) due to lack of data I need for my purpose
- Newbury Park is the obvious favorite
#1 - Newbury Park CA
... Newbury Park is the defending NXN Champion (they beat
Great Oak by 4 points at NXN 2019), and Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN in 2018
... Newbury Park handily won the XC Town USA Meet of Champions
National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana last fall (and
return 5 runners from that race) ... They are the only California
Boys team included in my preseason rankings due to lack of data
that I require for these rankings
...
Newbury Park showed remarkable talent during the Track season and
are the odds-on preseason favorite to win NXN 2021 ... Approximate
representative returning speed ratings:
191 - Colin Sahlman - 12
190 - Lex Young - 11
188 - Leo Young - 11
183 - Aaron Sahlman - 11
177 - Daniel Appleford - 12
#2 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR finished 17th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd to Newbury Park at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet last fall, and return 4 of 7 runners from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
181 - Caden Hildenbrand - 12
179 - Jacob Nenow - 11
177 - John Schuler - 12
174 - Gus Clevenger - 11
171 - Joshua Augustine - 11
161 - Caden Swanson - 10
159 - Dominic Ricci - 12
#3 - Cheyenne Mountain CO ... Cheyenne Mountain CO did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd to Niwot at the Colorado State 4A Championship last fall, but return their entire team from that race (and they add new XC runner Tyler Nord who ran at Volcano Vista AZ last fall) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
188 - Erik Le Roux - 12
174 - Kaden Levings - 11
173 - Knox Exton - 12
173 - Enzo Knapp - 12
168 - Cedar Collins - 12
162 - Tyler Nord - 12
152 - Austin Smith - 12
150 - Jack Warmack - 12
#4 - Brebeuf Jesuit Prep School IN ... Brebeuf Jesuit Prep School did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Brebeuf Jesuit Prep finished 3rd (to Columbus North and Carmel) at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and return the top five scorers from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
180 - Krishna Thirunavukkarasu - 12
176 - Cameron Todd - 10
175 - Ezra Burrell - 11
169 - Matteo Rosio - 11
168 - Collin Stevens - 10
149 - Brennan Legue - 11
#5 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista CO finished 13th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Mountain Vista won the Colorado State 5A Championship last fall, and then finished 3rd at the RunningLane National Race (behind American Fork and Niwot) ... They return 5 runners from the National race, including 4 of the top 5 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
182 - Owen Nolan - 12
182 - Jayden Nats - 12
175 - Nate Harbert - 12
167 - Aaron Yocom - 12
162 - Landon Hart - 11
152 - Tyler Johnson - 12
151 - Charlie Geisler - 12
#6 - Farmington UT ... Farmington Utah did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Farmington won the Utah State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 6th at the RunningLane National Race ... they return 3 of the top 4 runners from the National meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Ethan Peterson - 12
174 - Ryan Bennett - 12
172 - Isaac Halverson - 12
172 - Britton Austin - 12
161 - Spencer Bradshaw - 11
156 - Tate Martineau - 12
153 - Henry Prusse - 12
#7 - Columbus North IN ... Columbus North did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Columbus North was the Indiana State Champion last fall, and they return 4 of the top 6 runners from that race ... They finished 9th at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
183 - Reese Kilbarger-stumpff - 12
177 - Matthew Newell - 12
175 - Evan Carr - 12
165 - William Kiel - 12
158 - Sam Hobbeheydar - 11
155 - Clayton Guthrie - 11
154 - Kellen Hottell - 11
#8 - Hamilton Southeastern IN ... Hamilton Southeastern did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Hamilton Southeastern finished 5th at the Indiana State Championship last fall, but return all 5 scorers from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Nolan Satterfield - 12
172 - Bennett Dubois - 12
171 - Will Marquardt - 12
167 - Garrett Hicks - 12
163 - Connor Sarkovics - 12
154 - Ash Caylor - 11
149 - Will Tuckis - 12
#9 - North Allegheny PA ... North Allegheny did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... North Allegheny won the Pennsylvania State AAA Championship last fall, and return 5 of the top 6 runners (including the top 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
179 - Scott Nalepa - 12
172 - Jackson Hickel - 12
169 - Gregory Kossuth - 11
168 - Graham Wolfe - 12
163 - Michael Gauntner - 10
152 - Danny Robles - 12
#10 - American Fork UT ... American Fork did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019, but have competed nicely at NXN on multiple occasions ... American Fork finished 2nd at the Utah State 6A Championship last fall (behind Skyridge), and then impressively won the RunningLane Championship National race ... They graduated 5 of 7 runners from those races, but American Fork has an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
192 - Nate Jaster - 12
176 - Jayden Fitzgarrald - 12
166 - Joshua Hernandez - 12
165 - Will Merkley - 12
155 - Jared Thomas - 12
150 - Kyler Nelson - 11
147 - Seth Smith - 11
#11 - Grapevine TX ... Grapevine Texas did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Grapevine won the Texas State 5A Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners from that race (including the top 4) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
189 - Walker St. John - 12
176 - Trey Leathers - 12
176 - Josue Granados - 12
162 - Brian Guevara - 12
153 - Alex Morales - 12
145 - Grant Saunders - 12
143 - Tyler Baxter - 11
#12 - Ridge HS NJ ... Ridge HS did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Ridge HS finished 2nd (to Christian Brothers Acad) at the Holmdel Invitational (unofficial New Jersey championship), and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
189 - Jackson Barna - 12
169 - Timmy Kolshorn - 11
168 - Andrew McCabe - 12
162 - Hudson Yu - 12
161 - James Kisker - 12
145 - Patrick Doran - 11
140 - Jonathan Wey - 11
#13 - Niwot CO ... Niwot did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship last fall ... and then finished 2nd (to American Fork) at the RunningLane Championship National race (graduated 4 of the 7 runners) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
191 - Zane Bergen - 12
176 - Joey Hendershot - 12
168 - Carlos Kipkorir Cheruiyot - 11
161 - Assumed New Runner guess
153 - Frederick Ambrose - 11
142 - Isaac Robinson - 12
#14 - Hamilton MT ... Hamilton MT did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Hamilton won the Montana State A Championship last fall, and return the entire team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Colter Purcell - 12
170 - Colter Kirkland - 12
167 - Tanner Nead - 12
164 - Lane Cole - 12
160 - Harrison Silverio - 12
151 - Zachary Kunkel - 12
132 - Carver Tison - 12
#15 - Carmel IN ... Carmel did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Carmel finished 2nd (to Columbus North) at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and graduated 4 runners ... Carmel is typically a large squad with an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
189 - Kole Mathison - 11
176 - Charlie Schuman - 12
165 - Charlie Leedke - 11
157 - Quavion Hooks - 11
156 - Jr Kevin Sweeney - 11
152 - Connor Mallon - 11
151 - Connor Heagy - 12
#16 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 16th at NXN Nationals in 2019, 18th in 2018, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Christian Brothers won the Holmdel Invitational last fall (unofficial New Jersey championship), but graduated 5 of those runners ... however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
174 - Nicholas Sullivan - 11
167 - Jack Moran - 12
159 - Lucas Ward - 11
#17 - Caledonia MI ... Caledonia did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Caledonia finished 2nd at the Michigan State D1 Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
175 - Josh Oom - 12
172 - Jordan Domany - 11
164 - Caden Dixon - 12
163 - Brett Guzman - 11
160 - Donavan Mattson - 12
152 - Cooper Sorsen - 12
#18 - Millard West NE ... Millard West Nebraska did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Millard West finished 2nd at the Nebraska State Class A Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners (including the top 3) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
180 - Sam Kirchner - 12
169 - Piercze Marshall - 11
165 - Joey Hartnett - 11
163 - Seth Fey - 12
156 - Cole Haith - 12
147 - Aidan Macleod - 12
#19 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019, but have competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... Wayzata finished 3rd at the Minnesota TCRC Showcase, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
172 - Hamza Mohamed - 12
171 - Daniel Mccollor - 10
164 - Nick Cichoski - 12
162 - Parker Dietrick - 10
161 - Alex Foss - 12
159 - Connor Von Holdt - 12
157 - Tyler Kissell - 10
#20 - Center Grove IN ... Center Grove did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Center Grove finished 4th at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and return their top 6 runners from that race ... They finished 11th at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... (Note - Place has been updated due to transfer loss) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
179 - Drew Costelow - 11
--- transferred to Valor Christian in Colorado
169 - Griffin Hennessy - 11
168 - Raef Sauer - 12
167 - Jarret Rockwell - 11
164 - Parker Mimbela - 11
162 - Kyle Montgomery - 10
153 - Gavin Rockwell - 10
#21 - Pace Academy GA ... Pace Academy Georgia did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Pace Academy finished 2nd at Georgia State 2A Championship last fall, and the finished 10th at the RunningLane National Race (top 4 runners return ... But will need a 5th runner) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
182 - Edward Blaha - 12
170 - Robert Mallis - 12
165 - George Blaha - 12
164 - Grant Thompson - 12
139 - Jackson Hurd - 10
132 - Kargil Behl - 12
#22 - Fremont NE ... Fremont Nebraska did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Fremont won the Nebraska Class A Championship last fall, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
173 - Nolan Miller - 12
171 - Carter Waters - 12
167 - Braden Taylor - 12
164 - Aaron Ladd - 12
154 - Tyson Baker - 12
#23 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills NY finished 18th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Burnt Hills finished 2nd in the Suburban Council Championship race last fall, and return three runners with speed ratings of 170 or higher ... Additional data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
176 - Ryan Allison - 12
173 - Matthew Rounds - 11
170 - Peter Fulgieri - 12
161 - Nick Grock - 12
152 - Matt Windecker - 10
#24 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS ... St. Thomas Aquinas Kansas did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They won the Kansas State 5A Championship last fall, and return 4 of the top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
178 - Logan Seger - 12
172 - Ashton Higgerson - 12
164 - Darren Mallot - 12
163 - Aaron Scaletty - 11
#25 - Deer Creek OK ... Deer Creek Oklahoma did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd at the Oklahoma State 6A Championship, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
179 - Gilbert Velez - 12
177 - AJ Antonelli - 12
161 - Colton Beckner - 12
157 - Spencer Lee - 12
157 - Landon Harrod - 12
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.