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National Pre-Season XC 2021

BOYS Teams - National 2021

Bill Meylan (August 11, 2021)

 

  • Boys - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2020 XC season into 2021
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races (not applicable for 2021 season)
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2021 race results are what count.

Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".

I did add some Regional Projections ... But limited data for last XC season (due to Covid) was very limiting for my purpose

NOTE About CALIFORNIA TEAMS ... Limited & Incomplete XC Data for 2020 caused me to exclude ALL California teams except Newbury Park ... The track data alone is not good for my purposes ... So potentially good CA teams are excluded below for preseason guessing.

 

 Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2021
 

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2021
 ... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 30 teams listed 


      School                 State   Score     NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----     ----------
  1   Newbury Park (SS)       CA       60      California
  2   Jesuit                  OR      185      Northwest
  3   Cheyenne Mountain       CO      240      Southwest
  4   Brebeuf Jesuit Prep     IN      255      Midwest
  5   Mountain Vista          CO      280      Southwest
  6   Farmington              UT      315      Southwest
  7   Columbus North          IN      320      Midwest
  8   Hamilton Southeastern   IN      345      Midwest
  9   North Allegheny         PA      345      Northeast
  10  American Fork           UT      345      Southwest
  11  Grapevine               TX      345      South
  12  Ridge HS                NJ      390      Northeast
  13  Niwot                   CO      400      Southwest
  14  Hamilton                MT      420      Northwest
  15  Carmel                  IN      425      Midwest
  16  Christian Brothers Acad NJ      430      Northeast
  17  Caledonia               MI      435      Midwest
  18  Millard West            NE      450      Heartland
  19  Wayzata                 MN      450      Heartland
  20  Center Grove            IN      455      Midwest ** (updated place)
  21  Pace Academy            GA      455      Southeast
  22  Fremont                 NE      460      Heartland
  23  Burnt Hills             NY      460      New York
  24  St. Thomas Aquinas      KS      460      Heartland
  25  Deer Creek              OK      460      South
  26  Hilliard Davidson       OH      460      Midwest
  27  Skyridge                UT      470      Southwest
  28  Desert Vista            AZ      485      Southwest
  29  Sioux City North        IA      485      Heartland
  30  Southlake Carroll       TX      485      South
  31* Corning                 NY      500      New York
  
       * Moved up a bit to have at two teams from
         New York region in the list.
       
       

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.

       Bishop Hendricken HS     RI     Northeast
       The Woodlands            TX     South
       Huntsville HS            AL     Southeast
       Festus                   MO     Midwest
       Lincoln HS               OR     Northwest
       Viera HS                 FL     Southeast
       La Salle Academy         RI     Northeast
       Rock Bridge              MO     Midwest
       Marietta                 GA     Southeast
       Xavier                   CT     Northeast
       Ann Arbor Pioneer        MI     Midwest
       Fort Mill                SC     Southeast
       Bloomington North        IN     Midwest
       Scottsboro HS            AL     Southeast
       Rocky Mountain           ID     Northwest
       Butler                   PA     Northeast
       Desert Hills             UT     Southwest
       Dorman                   SC     Southeast
       St. Xavier               OH     Midwest
       University High          WV     Southeast
       Atascocita               TX     South
       El Paso Eastwood         TX     South
       Stillwater               MN     Heartland
       Davis                    UT     Southwest
       Denton High              TX     South
       Mount Tabor              NC     Southeast
       Floyd Central            IN     Midwest
       Spartanburg              SC     Southeast
       Conner                   KY     Southeast
       Stevens Point            WI     Heartland
       Edina                    MN     Heartland
       Corner Canyon            UT     Southwest
       Friendswood              TX     South
       Rapid City Stevens       SD     Heartland
       Sentinel                 MT     Northwest

  *** I may have missed a team or two going through
        my databases as quickly as I did

		
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2020 Seasonal Speed Ratings
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing 
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.

 

  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... Unfortunately, I had to exclude California teams (and other teams) due to lack of data I need for my purpose
  • Newbury Park is the obvious favorite

 

 Comments on the TOP 25 Teams:
 

#1 - Newbury Park CA ... Newbury Park is the defending NXN Champion (they beat Great Oak by 4 points at NXN 2019), and Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN in 2018 ... Newbury Park handily won the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana last fall (and return 5 runners from that race) ... They are the only California Boys team included in my preseason rankings due to lack of data that I require for these rankings ... Newbury Park showed remarkable talent during the Track season and are the odds-on preseason favorite to win NXN 2021 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

191 - Colin Sahlman - 12
190 - Lex Young - 11
188 - Leo Young - 11
183 - Aaron Sahlman - 11
177 - Daniel Appleford - 12

#2 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit OR finished 17th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd to Newbury Park at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet last fall, and return 4 of 7 runners from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

181 - Caden Hildenbrand - 12
179 - Jacob Nenow - 11
177 - John Schuler - 12
174 - Gus Clevenger - 11
171 - Joshua Augustine - 11
161 - Caden Swanson - 10
159 - Dominic Ricci - 12

#3 - Cheyenne Mountain CO ... Cheyenne Mountain CO did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd to Niwot at the Colorado State 4A Championship last fall, but return their entire team from that race (and they add new XC runner Tyler Nord who ran at Volcano Vista AZ last fall) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

188 - Erik Le Roux - 12
174 - Kaden Levings - 11
173 - Knox Exton - 12
173 - Enzo Knapp - 12
168 - Cedar Collins - 12
162 - Tyler Nord - 12
152 - Austin Smith - 12
150 - Jack Warmack - 12

#4 - Brebeuf Jesuit Prep School IN ... Brebeuf Jesuit Prep School did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Brebeuf Jesuit Prep finished 3rd (to Columbus North and Carmel) at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and return the top five scorers from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

180 - Krishna Thirunavukkarasu - 12
176 - Cameron Todd - 10
175 - Ezra Burrell - 11
169 - Matteo Rosio - 11
168 - Collin Stevens - 10
149 - Brennan Legue - 11

#5 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista CO finished 13th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Mountain Vista won the Colorado State 5A Championship last fall, and then finished 3rd at the RunningLane National Race (behind American Fork and Niwot) ... They return 5 runners from the National race, including 4 of the top 5 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

182 - Owen Nolan - 12
182 - Jayden Nats - 12
175 - Nate Harbert - 12
167 - Aaron Yocom - 12
162 - Landon Hart - 11
152 - Tyler Johnson - 12
151 - Charlie Geisler - 12

#6 - Farmington UT ... Farmington Utah did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Farmington won the Utah State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 6th at the RunningLane National Race ... they return 3 of the top 4 runners from the National meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

177 - Ethan Peterson - 12
174 - Ryan Bennett - 12
172 - Isaac Halverson - 12
172 - Britton Austin - 12
161 - Spencer Bradshaw - 11
156 - Tate Martineau - 12
153 - Henry Prusse - 12

#7 - Columbus North IN ... Columbus North did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Columbus North was the Indiana State Champion last fall, and they return 4 of the top 6 runners from that race ... They finished 9th at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

183 - Reese Kilbarger-stumpff - 12
177 - Matthew Newell - 12
175 - Evan Carr - 12
165 - William Kiel - 12
158 - Sam Hobbeheydar - 11
155 - Clayton Guthrie - 11
154 - Kellen Hottell - 11

#8 - Hamilton Southeastern IN ... Hamilton Southeastern did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Hamilton Southeastern finished 5th at the Indiana State Championship last fall, but return all 5 scorers from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

177 - Nolan Satterfield - 12
172 - Bennett Dubois - 12
171 - Will Marquardt - 12
167 - Garrett Hicks - 12
163 - Connor Sarkovics - 12
154 - Ash Caylor - 11
149 - Will Tuckis - 12

#9 - North Allegheny PA ... North Allegheny did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... North Allegheny won the Pennsylvania State AAA Championship last fall, and return 5 of the top 6 runners (including the top 4 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

179 - Scott Nalepa - 12
172 - Jackson Hickel - 12
169 - Gregory Kossuth - 11
168 - Graham Wolfe - 12
163 - Michael Gauntner - 10
152 - Danny Robles - 12

#10 - American Fork UT ... American Fork did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019, but have competed nicely at NXN on multiple occasions ... American Fork finished 2nd at the Utah State 6A Championship last fall (behind Skyridge), and then impressively won the RunningLane Championship National race ... They graduated 5 of 7 runners from those races, but American Fork has an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

192 - Nate Jaster - 12
176 - Jayden Fitzgarrald - 12
166 - Joshua Hernandez - 12
165 - Will Merkley - 12
155 - Jared Thomas - 12
150 - Kyler Nelson - 11
147 - Seth Smith - 11

#11 - Grapevine TX ... Grapevine Texas did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Grapevine won the Texas State 5A Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners from that race (including the top 4) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

189 - Walker St. John - 12
176 - Trey Leathers - 12
176 - Josue Granados - 12
162 - Brian Guevara - 12
153 - Alex Morales - 12
145 - Grant Saunders - 12
143 - Tyler Baxter - 11

#12 - Ridge HS NJ ... Ridge HS did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Ridge HS finished 2nd (to Christian Brothers Acad) at the Holmdel Invitational (unofficial New Jersey championship), and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

189 - Jackson Barna - 12
169 - Timmy Kolshorn - 11
168 - Andrew McCabe - 12
162 - Hudson Yu - 12
161 - James Kisker - 12
145 - Patrick Doran - 11
140 - Jonathan Wey - 11

#13 - Niwot CO ... Niwot did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship last fall ... and then finished 2nd (to American Fork) at the RunningLane Championship National race (graduated 4 of the 7 runners)  ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

191 - Zane Bergen - 12
176 - Joey Hendershot - 12
168 - Carlos Kipkorir Cheruiyot - 11
161 - Assumed New Runner guess
153 - Frederick Ambrose - 11
142 - Isaac Robinson - 12

#14 - Hamilton MT ... Hamilton MT did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Hamilton won the Montana State A Championship last fall, and return the entire team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

177 - Colter Purcell - 12
170 - Colter Kirkland - 12
167 - Tanner Nead - 12
164 - Lane Cole - 12
160 - Harrison Silverio - 12
151 - Zachary Kunkel - 12
132 - Carver Tison - 12

#15 - Carmel IN ... Carmel did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Carmel finished 2nd (to Columbus North) at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and graduated 4 runners ... Carmel is typically a large squad with an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

189 - Kole Mathison - 11
176 - Charlie Schuman - 12
165 - Charlie Leedke - 11
157 - Quavion Hooks - 11
156 - Jr Kevin Sweeney - 11
152 - Connor Mallon - 11
151 - Connor Heagy - 12

#16 - Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 16th at NXN Nationals in 2019, 18th in 2018, 7th in 2017 and 7th in 2016 ... Christian Brothers won the Holmdel Invitational last fall (unofficial New Jersey championship), but graduated 5 of those runners ... however, they are typically a deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ...  Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

174 - Nicholas Sullivan - 11
167 - Jack Moran - 12
159 - Lucas Ward - 11

#17 - Caledonia MI ... Caledonia did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Caledonia finished 2nd at the Michigan State D1 Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

175 - Josh Oom - 12
172 - Jordan Domany - 11
164 - Caden Dixon - 12
163 - Brett Guzman - 11
160 - Donavan Mattson - 12
152 - Cooper Sorsen - 12

#18 - Millard West NE ... Millard West Nebraska did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ...  Millard West finished 2nd at the Nebraska State Class A Championship last fall, and return 6 of 7 runners (including the top 3) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

180 - Sam Kirchner - 12
169 - Piercze Marshall - 11
165 - Joey Hartnett - 11
163 - Seth Fey - 12
156 - Cole Haith - 12
147 - Aidan Macleod - 12

#19 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019, but have competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... Wayzata finished 3rd at the Minnesota TCRC Showcase, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

172 - Hamza Mohamed - 12
171 - Daniel Mccollor - 10
164 - Nick Cichoski - 12
162 - Parker Dietrick - 10
161 - Alex Foss - 12
159 - Connor Von Holdt - 12
157 - Tyler Kissell - 10

#20 - Center Grove IN ... Center Grove did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Center Grove finished 4th at the Indiana State Championship last fall, and return their top 6 runners from that race ... They finished 11th at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions National Meet at the LaVern Gibson course in Indiana ... (Note - Place has been updated due to transfer loss) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

179 - Drew Costelow - 11 --- transferred to Valor Christian in Colorado
169 - Griffin Hennessy - 11
168 - Raef Sauer - 12
167 - Jarret Rockwell - 11
164 - Parker Mimbela - 11
162 - Kyle Montgomery - 10
153 - Gavin Rockwell - 10

#21 - Pace Academy GA ... Pace Academy Georgia did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Pace Academy finished 2nd at Georgia State 2A Championship last fall, and the finished 10th at the RunningLane National Race (top 4 runners return ... But will need a 5th runner) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

182 - Edward Blaha - 12
170 - Robert Mallis - 12
165 - George Blaha - 12
164 - Grant Thompson - 12
139 - Jackson Hurd - 10
132 - Kargil Behl - 12

#22 - Fremont NE ... Fremont Nebraska did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Fremont won the Nebraska Class A Championship last fall, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

173 - Nolan Miller - 12
171 - Carter Waters - 12
167 - Braden Taylor - 12
164 - Aaron Ladd - 12
154 - Tyson Baker - 12

#23 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills NY finished 18th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Burnt Hills finished 2nd in the Suburban Council Championship race last fall, and return three runners with speed ratings of 170 or higher ... Additional data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

176 - Ryan Allison - 12
173 - Matthew Rounds - 11
170 - Peter Fulgieri - 12
161 - Nick Grock - 12
152 - Matt Windecker - 10

#24 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS ... St. Thomas Aquinas Kansas did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They won the Kansas State 5A Championship last fall, and return 4 of the top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

178 - Logan Seger - 12
172 - Ashton Higgerson - 12
164 - Darren Mallot - 12
163 - Aaron Scaletty - 11

#25 - Deer Creek OK ... Deer Creek Oklahoma did not compete at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... They finished 2nd at the Oklahoma State 6A Championship, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:

179 - Gilbert Velez - 12
177 - AJ Antonelli - 12
161 - Colton Beckner - 12
157 - Spencer Lee - 12
157 - Landon Harrod - 12

NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.

Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ...  Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.

 

 

Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections 2021
 

NOTE ... the Covid pandemic limited my speed rating of some regions (especially California, the Northwest and Northeast), so limited representation exists and some good teams are not included.

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2020 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams get excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.

 

 
California
    ** Insufficient Speed Rating Data for enough
       California Teams **
       
Heartland
    Wayzata                 MN      90    Heartland
    Fremont                 NE      90    Heartland
    Millard West            NE      90    Heartland
    St. Thomas Aquinas      KS      95    Heartland
    Sioux City North        IA     100    Heartland
    Stillwater              MN     130    Heartland
    Stevens Point           WI     140    Heartland
    Edina                   MN     150    Heartland
    Rapid City Stevens      SD     170    Heartland

Midwest
    Brebeuf Jesuit Prep     IN      85    Midwest
    Columbus North          IN     110    Midwest
    Hamilton Southeastern   IN     120    Midwest
    Carmel                  IN     145    Midwest
    Caledonia               MI     160    Midwest
    Center Grove            IN     175    Midwest
    Hil. Davidson           OH     180    Midwest
    Rock Bridge             MO     190    Midwest
    Ann Arbor Pioneer       MI     195    Midwest
    Festus                  MO     195    Midwest
    Bloomington North       IN     200    Midwest
    St. Xavier              OH     210    Midwest
    Floyd Central           IN     225    Midwest
    
New York (see NY Boys Projection Page)
    Corning                 NY     175    New York
    Burnt Hills             NY     190    New York
    Webster Thomas          NY     280    New York
    Fordham Prep            NY     300    New York
    Shenendehowa            NY     301    New York
    Fayetteville-Manlius    NY     320    New York
    Guilderland             NY     325    New York
    Xavier                  NY     340    New York
    Westhampton Beach       NY     350    New York

Northeast
    North Allegheny         PA      60    Northeast
    Ridge HS                NJ      75    Northeast
    Christian Brothers Acad NJ      80    Northeast
    Bishop Hendricken HS    RI      90    Northeast
    Xavier                  CT      95    Northeast
    La Salle Academy        RI     100    Northeast
    Butler                  PA     105    Northeast

Northwest
    Jesuit                  OR      20    Northwest
    Hamilton                MT      50    Northwest
    Lincoln HS              OR      70    Northwest
    Rocky Mountain          ID      80    Northwest
    Sentinel                MT     110    Northwest
      ** Likely missing teams from WA and OR with
         insufficient data ***

South
    Grapevine               TX      70    South
    Deer Creek              OK      90    South
    Southlake Carroll       TX      95    South
    The Woodlands           TX     100    South
    El Paso Eastwood        TX     110    South
    Atascocita              TX     115    South
    Denton High             TX     120    South
    Friendswood             TX     140    South

Southeast
    Pace Academy            GA     110    Southeast
    Huntsville HS           AL     120    Southeast
    Viera HS                FL     130    Southeast
    Marietta                GA     135    Southeast
    Fort Mill               SC     140    Southeast
    Scottsboro HS           AL     140    Southeast
    Dorman                  SC     150    Southeast
    Spartanburg             SC     150    Southeast
    Mount Tabor             NC     150    Southeast
    University High         WV     150    Southeast

Southwest
    Cheyenne Mountain       CO      65    Southwest
    Mountain Vista          CO      80    Southwest
    Farmington              UT      95    Southwest
    American Fork           UT     110    Southwest
    Niwot                   CO     115    Southwest
    Desert Vista            AZ     135    Southwest
    Skyridge                UT     140    Southwest
    Desert Hills            UT     170    Southwest
    Davis                   UT     180    Southwest
    Corner Canyon           UT     190    Southwest