- What good are Pre-Season Rankings?
- ... Useful in gathering background information for the upcoming season
- ... Topic of conversion during the summer
- ... Not used for any rankings once the season starts
- Pre-Season Team Ranking Problems:
- ... Based largely on last year's XC results
- ... Some runners improve significantly or lose interest
- ... Some runners quit or transfer
- ... One runner can have a big impact on team score (plus or minus)
- ... Unknowns -
Requires some subjective "guessing" by me.
- ... If data for 5 runners on a team was not available or guess-able, team likely excluded
- ... Covid 19 caused problems in terms of types of races contested and Fewer NY Races speed-rated (especially dual meets).
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
.
NOTE ... Some teams are not included because I did not speed rate most Dual Meets and they did not race in other races I did speed rate!
Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2021
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 40 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Corning 175 (04-A )
2 Burnt Hills 190 (02-B )
3 Webster Thomas 280 (05-A )
4 Fordham Prep 300 (CHSAA)
5 Shenendehowa 301 (02-A )
6 Fayetteville-Manlius 320 (03-A )
7 Guilderland 325 (02-A )
8 Xavier 340 (CHS )
9 Westhampton Beach 350 (11-B )
10 Saratoga 400 (02-A )
11 Mamaroneck 415 (01-A )
12 St. Anthony's 435 (CHSAA)
13 East Aurora 445 (06-B ) ** updated guess
14 Fox Lane 450 (01-A )
15 McQuaid 455 (05-A )
16 Victor 500 (05-A )
17 Chaminade 525 (CHSAA)
18 Liverpool 526 (03-A )
19 Calhoun 530 (08-A )
20 Allegany-Limestone 531 (06-C )
21 Pittsford Mendon 540 (05-B )
22 Briarcliff 575 (01-C )
23 St. Francis Prep 580 (CHSAA)
24 Irondequoit 600 (05-A )
25 Vestal 605 (04-B )
26 Port Washington 610 (08-A )
27 Monsignor Farrell 625 (CHSAA)
28 Suffern 635 (01-A )
29 Bay Shore 650 (11-A )
30 Bethlehem 670 (02-A )
31 Horseheads 695 (04-A )
32 Iona Prep 695 (CHSAA)
33 Oceanside 695 (08-A )
34 Baldwinsville 695 (03-A )
35 Pelham 700 (01-B )
36 Southwestern 705 (06-C )
37 Niskayuna 710 (02-A )
38 Irvington 740 (01-C )
39 Sauquoit Valley 770 (03-D )
40 Newfane 780 (06-C )
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2020 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Uncertainty Factors
- ... Ability of a team to "reload" after significant loses (graduation, transfer, etc)
- ... Impact of new runners ... my term for this is "New Blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc)
- ... Will returning runners improve??
- ... Team Depth ... Impact of Injury or Illness
- ... Impact of runners who decide to quit
Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 40 teams to show some depth.
In General
... Similar to other pre-seasons, I see uncertainty
in the team scores posted above ... Pre-season projections are
often made with limited knowledge (or no knowledge) of
incoming impact runners such as transfers (from other sports
or other schools) or significantly improved runners from the
previous year ... It requires guessing
.
Corning enters the 2021 as a slight favorite based on speed ratings, and Corning did compete in both fall and spring XC.
The Covid problems of last year make any projection uncertain, and this is just an informational starting point.
One or two new impact runners could make a big difference for a bunch of teams ... Should be interesting to watch the development throughout the XC season.
Additional comments and information are given below by Class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.