National Pre-Season XC 2020
GIRLS Teams - National 2020
Bill Meylan (August 14, 2020)
NOTE ... the Covid-19 Pandemic has upset the 2020 Cross Country season ... However, I am posting these pre-season projections as if this would be a "normal" season, simply as a point of interest.
- Girls - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2019 XC season into 2020
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2020 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2020
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 34 teams listed (and not just 22 teams)
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Saratoga NY 160 New York
2 Summit OR 280 Northwest
3 Naperville North IL 300 Midwest
4 Buchanan CA 325 California
5 Niwot CO 330 Southwest
6 Wayzata MN 350 Heartland
7 Lone Peak UT 370 Southwest
8 Valor Christian CO 370 Southwest
9 Great Oak CA 370 California
10 Jesuit OR 400 Northwest
11 Boise Senior ID 420 Northwest
12 Cherry Creek CO 430 Southwest
13 Edina MN 435 Heartland
14 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 435 New York
15 Flower Mound TX 435 South
16 Desert Vista AZ 445 Southwest
17 St. Francis Mountain View CA 445 California
18 Loudoun Valley VA 445 Southeast
19 Muskego WI 460 Heartland
20 Ridgewood NJ 460 Northeast
21 Petoskey MI 470 Midwest
22 Bolles HS FL 480 Southeast
23 Newbury Park CA 480 California
24 Stillwater MN 480 Heartland
25 Lincoln OR 490 Northwest
26 Yorkville IL 495 Midwest
27 Onalaska WI 500 Heartland
28 Weddington NC 500 Southeast
29 Springville UT 500 Southwest
30 Chapel Hill NC 500 Southeast
30 Saint Michael-Albertville MN 500 Heartland
30 Saugus CA 500 California
33* North Hunterdon NJ 550 Northeast
33* Prosper TX 550 South
* added above (from below) for two team
regional representation from each region
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Cuthbertson NC Southeast
Lexington OH Midwest
Bozeman MT Northwest
Farmington MN Heartland
Sioux Falls Lincoln SD Heartland
Los Alamos NM Southwest
Minnetonka MN Heartland
Willmar MN Heartland
Traverse City Central MI Midwest
East Grand Rapids MI Midwest
Arapahoe CO Southwest
Fort Wayne Carroll IN Midwest
Timberline (Boise) ID Northwest
Saint Paul Highland Park MN Heartland
Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest
Southlake Carroll TX South
Carmel IN Midwest
La Costa Canyon CA California
Timberline (Boise) ID Northwest
Corvallis OR Northwest
Canyon Anaheim Hills CA California
Shenendehowa NY New York
Concord Carlisle MA Northeast
Lakota East OH Midwest
Hellgate MT Northwest
Champlain Valley Union VT Northeast
Midlothian VA Southeast
Lincoln East NE Heartland
Battle Mountain CO Southwest
Blacksburg VA Southeast
Grapevine TX South
Cherokee Trail CO Southwest
Middletown South NJ Northeast
Coppell TX South
Johnston IA Heartland
Tahoma Senior WA Northwest
Alexandria MN Heartland
Boerne Champion TX South
Kingwood TX South
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Middleton WI Heartland
Hilliard Davidson OH Midwest
South Eugene OR Northwest
South Anchorage AK Northwest
Camas WA Northwest
Eagle ID Northwest
American Fork UT Southwest
Concord NH Northeast
Mendham NJ Northeast
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2019 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2019 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2019, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 10 of the top 14 teams at NXN 2019 were ranked in my pre-season top 18 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 17 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 7 of the top 9 teams above finished in the top 9 at NXN Nationals last year
- ... Saratoga is the solid favorite based on last year's NXN National performance
#1 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is the defending NXN Champion and a perennial competitor at NXN ... Saratoga has competed at NXN Nationals in 14 of the 16 years that NXN has operated ... Last year, Saratoga won NXN Nationals by 82 points! ... They return their entire team from NXN ... Additional data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
146 - Ella Kurto - 11
137 - McKinley Wheeler - 10
137 - Sheridan Wheeler - 10
133 - Mackenzie Hart - 11
124 - Emily Bush - 9
120 - Catherine Mongan - 11
120 - Anya Belisle - 9
#2 - Summit OR ... Summit finished 2nd at NXN last year after winning impressively in 2018 ... Summit returns 4 of 7 from NXN Nationals and their winning NXR Northwest team, and those 4 returners were all scorers at NXN Nationals ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
141 - Teaghan Knox - 11
129 - Jasper Fievet - 12
126 - Barrett Justema - 10
125 - Magdalene Williams - 11
113 - Camile Broadbent - 10
102 - Ashley Boone - 11
#3 - Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished an outstanding 2nd at NXN Nationals in both 2018 and 2017 ... they were 10th in 2016, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Multiple appearances at NXN Nationals is a big plus for any team ... Naperville North returns their entire team from NXN and NXR Midwest (which they won) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
140 - Maggie Gamboa - 12
129 - Audrey Mendrys - 12
123 - Molly Morton - 12
120 - Lucy Westlake - 11
116 - Kate Donaldson - 12
115 - Campbell Petersen - 12
112 - Sophie Golobitsh - 11
#4 - Buchanan CA ... Buchanan finished 5th at NXN last year and were the top team in the California State Meet Merge (1 point ahead of Great Oak) ... They return 5 of 7 runners, but did lose their top runner (who finished 2nd in the CA Merge) ... Buchanan's #2, #3 and #4 scorers were all freshmen last year ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
134 - Sydney Sundgren - 10
128 - Grace Hutchison - 10
124 - Caroline Mendyk - 10
120 - Kaylee Elliott - 11
117 - Morgan Hutchison - 12
111 - Allison Yee - 11
#5 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals last year and 5th the previous year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Southwest and were selected as an At-Large team (just like the previous year) ... And repeating from last year, their race at NXN Nationals was probably their best team race of the season (and that deserves credit) ... Niwot returns 5 of 7 runners from NXN, but lose their top runner to graduation ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
132 - Lucca Fulkerson - 12
131 - Taylor James - 12
122 - Eva Klingbeil - 11
120 - Amelia Philofsky - 11
117 - Madison Shults - 10
96 - Eva Lennert - 12
86 - Mina Altshuler - 11
#6 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Heartland, but were not selected as an At-Large team ... Wayzata finished 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2018 and 7th the year before ... Importantly, all seven NXN runners return ... Wayzata won NXN Nationals in 2013 ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
138 - Abbey Nechanicky - 10
126 - Grace Link - 12
120 - Emelia Arnone - 12
118 - Teegan Anderson - 10
116 - Ella Braufman - 11
116 - Grace Mignone - 10
115 - Grace Weber - 10
#7 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year ... They won the NXR Southwest race ... Lone Peak returns 4 runners from NXN Nationals, including the top 3 scorers ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
143 - Eliza Arrington - 12
132 - Reagan Gardner - 12
127 - Eliza Mason - 11
114 - Katie Bybee - 11
106 - Sarah Merrill - 12
102 - Anna Scholes - 12
100 - Shea Conroy - 11
#8 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd at NXR Southwest ... They return 5 of 7 from NXN, including the top 4 scorers ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
135 - Lanie Szuch - 11
132 - Taylor Whitfield - 12
131 - Brooke Wilson - 10
116 - Isabella Prosceno - 12
102 - Reese Dragovich - 12
85 - Isabelle Ritz - 11
82 - Taylor Rorick - 10
#9 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 9th at NXN last year, 8th in 2018, 8th in 2017, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak returns only 3 of 7 from NXN ... But Great Oak typically has excellent depth and an ability to reload, so they get credit for that ... Great Oak could better this ranking ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
132 - Kelli Gaffney - 10
123 - Aishling Fabian - 10
123 - Melinda Dang - 10
122 - Divine Torza - 11
107 - Lauren Buckley - 12
#10 - Jesuit (Oregon) OR ... Jesuit finished 11th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR Northwest and were selected as an At-Large team ... Jesuit returns 6 of 7 from NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
143 - Chloe Foerster - 11
126 - Molly Grant - 12
119 - Maggie Bennett - 10
118 - Naya Wrenn - 10
109 - Claire Cooney - 11
107 - Natalie Jack - 10
91 - Zoe Quach - 12
#11 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 5th at NXR Northwest and return 6 of 7 from NXR (and 5 of 7 from States) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
131 - Mikella Tobin - 11
127 - Rosina Machu - 12
121 - Jamie Hamlin - 11
114 - Annika Zuschlag - 11
113 - Andrea Cernuda - 12
112 - Lydia Nance - 10
#12 - Cherry Creek CO ... Cherry Creek did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 4th at NXR Southwest ... Cherry Creek returns 5 of 7 including the top 4 from NXR (and top 3 from Colorado States) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
148 - Riley Stewart - 11
132 - Addison Price - 10
125 - Shelby Balding - 11 (had only 3 early season races)
117 - Abigail MacLean - 11
116 - Claire Semerod - 11
101 - Lydia Joyce - 11
#13 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year, 17th in 2018, 11th in 2017 and 12th in 2016 ... Edina won the NXR Heartland Regional ... Edina returns 4 of 7 from NXN (including the top 4 from NXN and top 2 from NXR) and Edina has been able to reload nicely in recent years ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
128 - Maggie Wagner - 11
127 - Mary Velner - 10
125 - Lauren Cossack - 10
120 - Macy Iyer - 11
101 - Evie Hage - 12
100 - Abby Winter - 11
94 - Jayne Parry - 12
#14 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... FM has been the NXN champion in 11 of the last 14 years ... FM finished 7th at NXN last year after narrowly beating Saratoga at both NXR New York and NY States (and Saratoga went on to win NXN by 82 points) ... FM returns 5 of 7, but lose 2 top runners to graduation (including top runner Claire Walters) ... FM has the ability to reload, so they get credit for that and their success at NXN ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
141 - Hannah Kaercher - 10
130 - Grace Kaercher - 12
120 - Debbie Lucchetti - 11
106 - Ani Sydorowych - 9
101 - Amelia Amack - 11
93 - Maddy Duggleby - 12
92 - Lejla Borcilo - 12
#15 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR South, but were not selected as an At-Large team ... Flower Mound returns all finishers from NXR South and the Texas State Meet (top runner Natalie Cook did not run at NXR due to an injury) ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
137 - Natalie Cook - 11
121 - Allison Buemi - 11
117 - Virginia Knight - 11
114 - Hannah Mclaughlin - 12
107? - Allie Lyda - 12
107 - Emma McLaughlin - 10
106 - Miranda Vreeland - 12
#16 - Desert Vista AZ ... Desert Vista did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 10th at NXR Southwest and return their top 4 from the NXR race ... Desert Vista won the Arizona State D1 championship and return the top five runners ... The combination of Lauren & Grace Ping is top returning "top two" of all teams ... and I assume their #5-position will show improvement ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
148 - Lauren Ping - 10
143 - Grace Ping - 12
119 - Emily Littlefield - 10
110 - Olivia Thatcher - 12
99 - Quinn Boardman - 12
99 - Bailee Christofis - 10
99 - Eve Boardman - 12
#17 - St. Francis Mountain View CA ... St. Francis Mountain View did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 6th in the California State Meet Merge ... The entire team returns from the State Meet ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
123 - Isabelle Cairns - 12
121 - Vanessa Cabello - 12
121 - Christel Elkins - 11
115 - Alexa Barton - 12
114 - Alexandra Cilley - 12
113 - Roxane Thomas - 12
107 - Claire Callon - 12
#18 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley finished 10th at NXN last year after winning the NXR Southeast Regional ... Official results indicate they return 3 of 7 from NXN, 5 of 7 from NXR, and 6 of 7 from the VA State Meet ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
136 - Ava Gordon - 11
134 - Ricky Fetterolf - 12
116 - Scarlet Fetterolf - 10
115 - Ally Talley - 12
102 - Abby Keane - 12
102 - Cecelia Fetterolf - 11
99 - Maddie Smith - 11
#19 - Muskego WI ... Muskego finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year, after finishing 2nd to Edina at NXR Heartland ... Muskego returns 6 of 7 runners from NXR and NXN ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
137 - Kate Sperka - 12
126 - Rachel Helm - 11
119 - Mckayla Felton - 12
110 - Ani Oxborough - 12
109 - Noelle Junig - 10
106 - Sara Jochims - 12
86 - Sophia Kennedy - 10
#20 - Ridgewood NJ ... Ridgewood finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year, after finishing 2nd at NXR Northeast ... Ridgewood returns their entire team from NXN and NXR ... Approximate returning overall speed ratings:
146 - Camryn Wennersten - 11
120 - Olivia Shattuck - 11
120 - Lily Williams - 11
114 - Annamarie Tretola - 11
110 - Claire Hamlet - 12
104 - Sarah Policano - 12
80 - Lucia Rabolli - 11