National Pre-Season XC 2018
GIRLS Teams - National 2018
Bill Meylan (July 26, 2018)
- Girls - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2017 XC season into 2018
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2018 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2018
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Wayzata MN 259 Heartland
2 Mountain Vista CO 260 Southwest
3 Naperville North IL 261 Midwest
4 Jesuit OR 262 Northwest
5 Great Oak CA 275 California
6 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 300 New York
7 Pine Crest FL 350 Southeast
8 Centerville OH 370 Midwest
9 Lone Peak UT 380 Southwest
10 Claremont CA 380 California
11 Yorkville IL 390 Midwest
12 Buchanan CA 400 California
13 Saratoga Springs NY 405 New York
14 Muskego WI 410 Heartland
15 Liverpool NY 415 New York
16 Boise Senior ID 415 Northwest
17 Northville MI 420 Midwest
18 Granada CA 420 California
19 North Central WA 425 Northwest
20 Edina MN 440 Heartland
21 Blacksburg VA 445 Southeast
22 Auburn AL 450 Southeast
23 Peak to Peak CO 455 Southwest
24 North Rockland NY 460 New York
25 Mountain View ID 465 Northwest
26 Downers Grove South IL 465 Midwest
27 Battle Mountain CO 470 Southwest
28 Bishop Guertin NH 470 Northeast
29 Summit OR 480 Northwest
30 North Hunterdon NJ 490 Northeast
30* Southlake Carroll TX 490 South
* added above (from below) for team
regional representation from each region
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Saint Michael-Albertville MN Heartland
Farmington MN Heartland
Desert Hills UT Southwest
Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest
Beavercreek OH Midwest
Vista Murrieta CA California
Barrington IL Midwest
Minneapolis Washburn MN Heartland
Daniel SC Southeast
Bolles FL Southeast
Riverside SC Southeast
Ursuline Academy OH Midwest
Carmel IN Midwest
Fort Wayne Carroll IN Midwest
Sun Prairie WI Heartland
Billings Sr MT Northwest
Glenbard West IL Midwest
St. James Academy KS Heartland
Bozeman MT Northwest
Marietta GA Southeast
Keller TX South
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Willmar MN Heartland
Cardinal Gibbons NC Southeast
Wheaton Warrenville So IL Midwest
Saugus CA California
Colts Neck NJ Northeast (added July 27)
Houston Stratford TX South
Foothill Tech CA California
Lyons Township IL Midwest
Zionsville Community IN Midwest
Weddington NC Southeast
Hilliard Davidson OH Midwest
Benet Academy IL Midwest
Chiles FL Southeast
Skyline ID Northwest
Lewisville Hebron TX South
West Lafayette IN Midwest
Burleson Centennial TX South
Green Hope NC Southeast
St. Mary's Academy OR Northwest
Hellgate MT Northwest
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2017 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2017 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2017, I did not identify 3 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 8 of the top 12 teams at NXN 2017 were ranked in my pre-season top12 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 16 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 5 of the top 6 teams above finished in the top 8 at NXN Nationals last year
- The top four teams (Wayzata, Mountain Vista, Naperville North and Jesuit) - LOOK EVEN-UP
- Fayetteville-Manlius is still in contention
- Major switching of teams #7 through #30 is very possible.
#2 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year (only 3 points separated Mountain Vista and Wayzata) ... Mountain Vista was 2nd at the NXR Southwest Regional last year ... they return their top 5 runners from NXN Nationals (top runner Jenna Fitzsimmons is profiled #38 at Top Individual Runner Profiles)... Returning speed ratings are 142,132, 131, 123 and 110.
#3 - Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished an outstanding 2nd at NXN Nationals last year (only 5 points behind Fayetteville-Manlius) ... they were 10th in 2016, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Multiple appearances at NXN Nationals is a big plus ... Naperville North won NXR Midwest last year ... But they graduate 2 of their top 3 runners from NXN National including top runner Sarah Schmitt (8th at both NXN and Foot Locker Nationals) ... However, Naperville North picks up a very good transfer runner (Campbell Petersen, from Dunlap IL, who had speed ratings in the 128-130 range) ... Returning for the coming season speed ratings are about 140s (Alex Morris, see Top Individual Runner Profiles #30), 129, 122, 122 and 116.
#4 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year (not their best seasonal performance) ... they finished 2nd at NXR Northwest ... Jesuit returns 5 of their top 6 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 137, 135, 132, 123 and 107.
#5 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 8th at NXN last year, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak returns 5 of their top 6 finishers from NXN including their top 3 finishers (two are profiled at Top Individual Runner Profiles, #28 & #29) ... Great Oak has excellent depth and gets credit for that ... Returning speed ratings are about 144, 141, 123, 118 and 109.
#6 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY
... FM is the defending NXN champion ... FM has been the
NXN
champion in 11 of the last 12 years ... As noted in previous years, picking FM
as
the
favorite to win NXN does not require much imagination
,
But this year MAY be different
...
in most previous years, there were some indications that FM might
be reloading, but in all honesty, at this time, I don't see it and have
not been told about it happening ... It could be happening ... will not
surprise if it happens ... So I'm allowing some credit for that
possibility because it has happened so often in the past ..... BUT based
on what I see as I write this, Fayetteville-Manlius should not be
placed in the top 5 nationally.
Fayetteville-Manlius returns only 2 of their top 5 girls from last year's winning team NXN team ... Fortunately for FM, their top two girls are returning (Claire Walters, 5th at NXN, and Phoebe White, 15th at NXN, and that's a huge start ... full profiles at Top NY Girls Profiles) ... their #3 is expected to be good ... their future strength will depend on the performances at the #4 and #5 positions (currently a mystery to be guessed by me and others).
Fayetteville-Manlius may be pushed just to be the top team in New York ... Saratoga and Liverpool can offer stiff competition in NY ... Should FM finish 3rd at the NXR Regional, they could easily receive an At-Large selection based on their history of performance and success at NXN Nationals and to get two of the top individual runners nationally into the race ..... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, ... Returning speed ratings are about 147, 144 120s, and 100-110 (guessing).
#7 - Pine Crest FL ... Pine Crest did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at the NXR Southeast Regional after winning the Florida State 2A Championship ... Pine Crest returns their entire team from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are 135, 127, 127, 119 and 104.
#8 - Centerville OH ... Centerville did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at NXR Midwest ... they won the Ohio State D1 Meet ... Centerville returns their entire team from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are 130, 127, 122, 114 and 113.
#9 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 4th at NXR Southwest ... Lone Peak returns their entire team from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are 130, 128, 117, 117 and 110.
#10 - Claremont CA ... Claremont finished 9th at NXN Nationals last year ... they return 5 of their top 7 from NXN including the top 4 finishers ... Returning speed ratings are 132, 124, 121, 119 and 105.
#11 - Yorkville IL ... Yorkville finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 2nd at NXR Midwest ... Yorkville returns 6 of 7 runners from NXN (but lose the #2 runner from NXN) ... Returning speed ratings are 131, 130, 116, 116 and 107.
#12 - Buchanan CA ... Buchanan finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... Buchanan finished 3rd in the California State Meet merge ... they return their top 3 runners from NXN (but the other 4 graduated) ... Two of their returning runners are top national runners (profiled at Top Individual Runner Profiles, #26 & #27) and #3 is good ... I am guessing their #4 and #5 runners will be decent, and that gets them ranked ... Returning speed ratings are 147, 146, 123, and 100-105 (guesses).
#13 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is a perennial competitor at NXN ... they have competed at NXN Nationals in 12 of the 14 years that NXN has operated ... Last year Saratoga finished 14th at NXN ... Top runner Kelsey Chmiel finished 2nd at NXN Nationals (her individual profile is available from the Top Individual Runner Profiles, #3) ... more info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Returning speed ratings are 158, 117, 115, 114 and variable (100-110).
#14 - Muskego WI ... Muskego did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year (they did not race at the NXR Regional) ... Muskego finished 2nd to Sun Prairie at the Wisconsin State Meet (Sun Prairie is listed in the extra group below the Top 30 above ... Sun Prairie lost their top runner to graduation) ... Muskego returns their entire team from States and five were freshmen last year ... Returning speed ratings from States are 140, 134, 116, 110, 105, 102 and 102.
#15 - Liverpool NY ... Liverpool finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... Liverpool returns 6 of 7 runners from NXN, including their top 3 that form a solid core of a nationally ranked team ... more info on Liverpool is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Profiles for their top two runners are available at Top NY Girls Profiles ... Returning speed ratings are 141, 132+, 112+, 105+ and 100+.
#16 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year (they did not race as a complete team at NXR Northwest) ... they return their top runners from States that has a very strong top core of three runners (which gets them ranked here assuming an improvement at the #5 position) ... Returning speed ratings from States are 139, 130, 129, 107 and 87.
#17 - Northville MI ... Northville did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year (they did not race at NXR Midwest, perhaps due to potential restrictions-sanctions imposed by the Michigan High School Athletic Assoc) ... Northville finished a very close 2nd at the Michigan State Meet and return 6 of 7 runners (including the top two) ... Returning speed ratings from States are 134, 131, 112, 111 and 107.
#18 - Granada CA ... Granada did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 6th in the overall merge at the California State Meet ... Granada returns their entire team from States ... Returning speed ratings from States are 131, 123, 121, 114 and 106 (meaning they could be ranked higher based on speed ratings alone).
#19 - North Central WA ... North Central WA did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 8th at NXN Northwest and won the Washington State 3A title ... the top 4 runners from States return ... Returning speed ratings from States are 134, 124, 124, 124 and 64 ... I'm assuming some improvement at the #5 position (a major improvement would boost their ranking).
#20 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 11th at NXN Nationals last year and 12th in 2016 ... Edina was 2nd to Wayzata the NXR Heartland Regional ... their top two runners graduated, but Edina has been able to reload in recent years with a deep squad ... Returning speed ratings are 122, 119, 116, 115 and 114.