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Pre-Season XC 2016
GIRLS Teams - National 2016
Bill Meylan (July 30, 2016)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2016 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2016 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
August 2, 2016 Update ... Thanks to Rob Monroe for update info ... Mountain View Idaho has been added at the end of the Top 30 list ... Mountain View ID finished 7th at NXN Northwest last year and returns all runners, and they are adding an incoming freshman who ran a 1600 meters in 4:46.47 on May 28th as an 8th-grader ... I placed them at 30th so the other teams stay the same as initially posted.
|National GIRLS Teams 2016|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2016 School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 160 New York 2 Great Oak CA 190 California 3 Saratoga Springs NY 210 New York 4 Davis Senior CA 250 California 5 Carmel IN 310 Midwest 6 Willmar MN 310 Heartland 7 Edina MN 330 Heartland 8 Arcadia CA 350 California 9 North Rockland NY 365 New York 10 Bozeman MT 390 Northwest 11 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast 12 Blacksburg VA 410 Southeast 13 Minooka IL 410 Midwest 14 American Fork UT 415 Southwest 15 Summit OR 420 Northwest 16 Desert Vista AZ 435 Southwest 17 Saugus CA 435 California 18 Centerville OH 450 Midwest 19 Highland-Milford MI 455 Midwest 20 Jesuit OR 460 Northwest 21 Keller TX 480 South 22 Birmingham Seaholm MI 485 Midwest 23 Marshall MN 490 Heartland 24 Buchanan CA 495 California 25 Yorkville IL 500 Midwest 26 Camas WA 505 Northwest 27 Batavia IL 510 Midwest 28 Riverside SC 520 Southeast 29 Davis Utah UT 520 Southwest 30 Esperanza CA 520 California 30 Mountain View ID 520 Northwest (updated Aug 2, 2016) The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled a lot: New Trier IL Midwest Broomfield CO Southwest Claremont CA California Wayzata MN Heartland Milton MA Northeast Chandler AZ Southwest Smithson Valley TX South Southlake Carroll TX South Poly (Long Beach) CA California Naperville North IL Midwest Mountain Vista CO Southwest Guilderland NY New York Prospect IL Midwest Sunset OR Northwest Eagle ID Northwest Serrano CA California Northville MI Midwest The Bolles School FL Southeast Daviess County KY Southeast Mountain Brook AL Southeast Webster Thomas NY New York Minnetonka MN Heartland Shenendehowa NY New York Corning NY New York Ridge NJ Northeast Unionville PA Northeast La Salle Academy RI Northeast Monroe-Woodbury NY New York Winter Park FL Southeast Lewisville Marcus TX South Tolland CT Northeast Ventura CA California Westview CA California Xavier Col Prep AZ Southwest Billings Sr MT Northwest Tatnall DE Southeast Bismarck High ND Heartland Walter Johnson MD Southeast Newton South MA Northeast S.L.V. CA California Lewisville Hebron TX South
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2015 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Hopefully, the girl's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2016 XC season in a reasonable order ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2015 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2015 are shown in a table below... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2015, I did not identify 2 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 3 of the top 4 teams at NXN 2015 were ranked in my pre-season top 4 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Similar to the boys, the top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners ... and many of these teams are teams that have qualified for NXN on multiple occasions ... This year is no different ... Entering the 2016 season, I see the top four teams from NXN 2015 as the top teams ... several other teams are really not that far behind ... a whole bunch of teams look competitive for top 10 positions.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... FM is the defending NXN champion ... FM has been the NXN champion in 9 of the last 10 years ... As noted last year, picking FM as the favorite does not require much imagination ... Fayetteville-Manlius returns four runners from last year's team including 3 scorers, and that forms a good returning nucleus for a strong team.
Fayetteville-Manlius has developed at least one new "high-level" performer every year since they began their "national" winning in 2006 ... so it seem likely that might happen again this year ... Last year, FM's top two new runners finished as the #1 and #2 scorers for FM at NXN Nationals (senior Kaitlyn Neal and 8th-grader Claire Walters) ... FM won NXN 2015 by 89 points ... Had their #1 and #2 scorers not counted in the team scoring, and the FM team score was counted from the #3 to #7 team finishers, Fayetteville-Manlius still would have won NXN with a team score of 133 ... Excellent team strength ........ More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on the top five FM runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles.
Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 3rd at NXN last year and 2nd at NXN in 2014 ... The NXN course change to the Glendoveer Golf Course two years ago has been beneficial to most California teams, including Great Oak ..... Great Oak returns 5 runners from NXN 2015, and Great Oak has a deep team at a high level, so it is easy to see them 7 runners deep ... Everything points to another great season for Great Oak in 2016.
Saratoga Springs NY ... Once again, Saratoga is not that far behind FM and Great Oak ... Saratoga is a perennial competitor at NXN ... they have competed at NXN Nationals in 11 of the 12 years that NXN has operated ... At NXN, Saratoga has won once, been 2nd four times, been 3rd once, and in the top 5 nine times .... .Saratoga returns their entire team that finished 4th at NXN last year ... In addition, Saratoga has other runners likely to be competitive for the scoring positions ..... More info about Saratoga is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on seven Saratoga runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles.
Davis Senior CA ... Davis Senior finished 2nd with an excellent performance at NXN Nationals last year ... The previous week, Davis Senior lost to Great Oak by only 2 points at the California State Meet (Division 1) ... Top runner Fiona O'Keefe (who graduated) "seemed" injured enough after the CA State Meet that I excluded her from the NXN projections entering NXN 2015; however, Fiona O'Keefe did finish as the #4 team scorer at NXN which helped Davis Senior finish 2nd in the team scoring ...... Davis Senior returns 5 runners from last year's team including 4 scorers ... the top 3 scorers from NXN return (speed ratings in the mid to upper 130s) forming as excellent nucleus for the 2016 team ... Davis Senior is one of the teams I did not identify as a potential NXN team entering the 2015 season.
Carmel IN ... Carmel finished 8th at NXN last year and is another top multiple-time competitor at NXN ... Carmel was 3rd at NXN 2014, 4th in 2013, 3rd in 2012, 5th in 2011 and 7th in 2010 ... Carmel returns 5 runners from last year's team (including top runner Sarah Leinheiser who was 7th at NXN and 8th at Footlocker) ... Carmel is typically a deep team (Christina Geisler showed very nice improvement in track including a 5000m of 17:08 at New Balance Outdoor Nationals) and some talented new runners may also be possible ... Expect another good season from Carmel.
Side-Note about Speed Ratings ... Although Carmel finished 4th at NXN Midwest, speed ratings identified Carmel as the top "At-Large" team amongst all potential girls At-Large teams.
Willmar MN ... Willmar finished 9th at last year's NXN ... and Willmar returns their entire NXN team ... Easy reason for a high ranking in the pre-season.
Edina MN ... Edina finished 16th at last year's NXN ... and Edina returns their entire NXN team.
Arcadia CA ... Arcadia finished 3rd to Great Oak and Davis Senior at the California State Meet ... Arcadia returns their entire team from States ... Before last year's NXN "At-Large" teams were announced, I had Arcadia penciled-in as one of them.
North Rockland NY ... North Rockland finished 10th at last year's NXN ... North Rockland returns their top 3 runners which forms an excellent nucleus for this year's team ... More info about North Rockland is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on two North Rockland runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles.
Bozeman MT ... Bozeman finished 19th at last year's NXN ... and Bozeman returns their entire NXN team.
Lake Braddock VA ... Lake Braddock finished 13th at last year's NXN ... Lake Braddock returns 6 runners from their NXN team including their top 4 scorers and top national runner Kate Murphy.
|Last Year's (2015) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2015 Pre-Season Projection -------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 170 New York 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #1 pre-season 2 Great Oak CA 171 California 2 Davis Senior CA - unranked 3 Saratoga Springs NY 245 New York 3 Great Oak CA - #2 pre-season 4 Carmel IN 285 Midwest 4 Saratoga Springs NY - #3 pre-season 5 Glenbard West IL 290 Midwest 5 Pennsbury PA - #11 pre-season 6 Naperville North IL 310 Midwest 6 American Fork UT - #23 pre-season 7 Shenendehowa NY 320 New York 7 Sunset OR - #30+ group pre-season 8 Davis UT 350 Southwest 8 Carmel IN - #4 pre-season 9 Lake Braddock VA 360 Southeast 9 Willmar MN - #15 pre-season 10 Northville MI 370 Midwest 10 North Rockland NY - #30+ group pre-season 11 Pennsbury PA 375 Northeast 11 Centreville OH - #30+ group pre-season 12 Wayzata MN 380 Heartland 12 Blacksburg VA - #30+ group pre-season 13 La Salle Academy RI 390 Northeast 13 Lake Braddock VA - #9 pre-season 14 Hinsdale Central IL 395 Midwest 14 Naperville North IL - #6 pre-season 15 Willmar MN 400 Heartland 15 Southlake Carroll TX - #30+ group pre-season 16 Edina MN 415 Heartland 16 Edina MN - #16 pre-season 17 Saugus CA 420 California 17 Northville MI - #10 pre-season 18 Winter Park FL 421 Southeast 18 La Salle Academy RI - #13 pre-season 19 Lewisville Marcus TX 425 South 19 Bozeman MT - #30+ group pre-season 20 Oakton VA 430 Southeast 20 Davis UT UT - #8 pre-season 21 Serrano CA 435 California 21 Xavier Col Prep AZ - unranked 22 Camas WA 436 Northwest 22 Kingwood TX - #30+ group pre-season 23 American Fork UT 437 Southwest 24 Green Hope NC 438 Southeast 25 Coe-Brown NH 450 Northeast 26 Bella Vista CA 455 California 27 Urbandale IA 465 Heartland 28 Desert Vista AZ 470 Southwest 29 Summit OR 475 Northwest 30 Lewisville Hebron TX 480 South
|Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections|
Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.
Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2015 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded).
I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams that might need to be followed.
Also ... I make very few national team "adjustments" based on track performances ... In general, I ignore track performances as much as possible when projecting cross country ... When improved track performance does correspond to improved XC performance, it typically shows up rather quickly in the new season ... Then I have "real-life in-season" speed ratings to make projections (and I definitely ignore track performances at that point).
California Great Oak CA 60 California Davis Senior CA 75 California Arcadia CA 105 California Saugus CA 130 California Buchanan CA 150 California Claremont CA 165 California Esperanza CA 170 California Poly (Long Beach) CA 180 California Serrano CA 195 California Ventura CA 215 California Westview CA 220 California S.L.V. CA 235 California Heartland Willmar MN 45 Heartland Edina MN 50 Heartland Marshall MN 80 Heartland Wayzata MN 90 Heartland Minnetonka MN 100 Heartland Bismarck High ND 120 Heartland Midwest Carmel IN 95 Midwest Centerville OH 120 Midwest Minooka IL 130 Midwest Highland-Milford MI 130 Midwest Birmingham Seaholm MI 135 Midwest Yorkville IL 140 Midwest Batavia IL 145 Midwest New Trier IL 145 Midwest Prospect IL 165 Midwest Naperville North IL 165 Midwest Northville MI 165 Midwest New York (see NY Girls Projection Page) Fayetteville-Manlius NY 75 New York Saratoga NY 90 New York North Rockland NY 190 New York Guilderland NY 315 New York Monroe-Woodbury NY 320 New York Corning NY 375 New York Shenendehowa NY 380 New York Webster Thomas NY 395 New York Pearl River NY 405 New York Shoreham Wading River NY 405 New York Colonie NY 425 New York Northeast Milton MA 65 Northeast La Salle Academy RI 70 Northeast Ridge NJ 70 Northeast Unionville PA 75 Northeast Tolland CT 80 Northeast Newton South MA 85 Northeast Northwest Bozeman MT 65 Northwest Summit OR 75 Northwest Jesuit OR 75 Northwest Mountain View ID 75 Northwest (updated Aug 2, 2016) Camas WA 85 Northwest Sunset OR 105 Northwest Eagle ID 110 Northwest Billings Sr MT 115 Northwest South Keller TX 50 South Smithson Valley TX 55 South Southlake Carroll TX 55 South Lewisville Marcus TX 65 South Lewisville Hebron TX 75 South Southeast Lake Braddock VA 75 Southeast Blacksburg VA 75 Southeast Riverside SC 95 Southeast Daviess County KY 120 Southeast Mountain Brook AL 120 Southeast The Bolles School FL 125 Southeast Winter Park FL 130 Southeast Tatnall DE 150 Southeast Walter Johnson MD 160 Southeast Southwest American Fork UT 70 Southwest Desert Vista AZ 75 Southwest Davis Utah UT 90 Southwest Broomfield CO 90 Southwest Chandler AZ 90 Southwest Mountain Vista CO 105 Southwest Xavier Col Prep AZ 120 Southwest