My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team were not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams ... I intentionally included at least one team from each region in the top 30.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2016 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
August 1, 2016 Update ... Some viewers from Minnesota believed I had under-rated Wayzata and gave me some good reasons ... one reason was the Open Race at NXN Heartland where several Wayzata underclassmen ran decently ... This was a good reason because I did not upload those results into my database; the results available from the Timing Company and the results from the NXN Heartland web-site were poorly formatted (under-statement) for my purpose requiring a complete re-format, so I bagged it ... Looking back now, the performances by the Wayzata runners were a nice improvement on their previous 2015 races, so I made some adjustments ... Depending on the magnitude of the adjustments, it could raise Wayzata's pre-season ranking to somewhere between 20th to 30th (I decided on 30th so rankings above 30 stay the same) ... The other reason from the Minnesota viewers was spring track times by the Wayzata runners ... As explained elsewhere, I ignore most track data for pre-season cross country ranking of teams ... I want to know what was accomplished in actual XC races whenever possible ... Wayzata did run very well in track and I could see them ranked in the top 15 due to that, but I'll wait for 2016 XC results.
August 3, 2016 Update ... Just found out that Lehi UT has opened a new high school named Skyridge HS ... the Lehi HS coach from last year and all but one of the returning Lehi XC runners are now at Skyridge HS.
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2016
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Neuqua Valley IL 270 Midwest
2 American Fork UT 275 Southwest
3 Dana Hills CA 310 California
4 Lone Peak UT 320 Southwest
5 Great Oak CA 320 California
6 Christian Brothers NJ 350 Northeast
7 Lehi (Skyridge HS) UT 355 Southwest
8 Lake Zurich IL 365 Midwest
9 Solon OH 365 Midwest
10 Madera South CA 365 California
11 The Woodlands TX 370 South
12 Bozeman MT 375 Northwest
13 West Torrance CA 375 California
14 Lyons IL 375 Midwest
15 Davis Utah UT 380 Southwest
16 Ogden UT 380 Southwest
17 Brentwood TN 390 Southeast
18 Carmel IN 395 Midwest
19 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 395 New York
20 Loyola CA 405 California
21 Broughton NC 410 Southeast
22 Southlake Carroll TX 410 South
23 Cherokee NJ 410 Northeast
24 Crater OR 410 Northwest
25 Mountain Vista CO 420 Southwest
26 Hinsdale Central IL 430 Midwest
27 Claremont CA 435 California
28 Brea Olinda CA 435 California
29 Bellarmine Prep WA 435 Northwest
30 Wayzata MN 440 Heartland (updated Aug 1, 2016)
30 Edina MN 440 Heartland
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
St. Xavier KY Southeast
Palmer Ridge CO Southwest
Indian Hills NJ Northeast
Jenks OK South
Louisville OH Midwest
Timpanogos UT Southwest
Don Bosco NJ Northeast
Ithaca NY New York
Millard West NE Heartland
Auburn AL Southeast
Mira Costa CA California
Hilton Head SC Southeast
Trinity Prep FL Southeast
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Olympus UT Southwest
Desert Hills UT Southwest
Summit OR Northwest
York IL Midwest
Wayzata MN Heartland (moved up to #30)
North Central WA Northwest
Pleasant Valley IA Heartland-
Hobbs NM Southwest
Cardinal Gibbons NC Southeast
Carlisle PA Northeast
Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest
Brophy College Prep AZ Southwest
Voorhees NJ Northeast
Dowling Catholic IA Heartland
St. Ignatius OH Midwest
Mt Carmel CA California
Creekside FL Southeast
Corning NY New York
Downers Grove (North) IL Midwest
Lawton Chile FL Southeast
Wando SC Southeast
Desert Vista AZ Southwest
Lowell IN Midwest
Flower Mound TX South
Champlain Valley VT Northeast
Saratoga NY New York
Green Hope NC Southeast
Central Valley WA Northwest
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above
identifies many of the top teams entering the 2016 XC season in a reasonable order ... If
it does, I made some decent guesses
... As a point of reference for last year, my 2015 pre-season
projections with corresponding results from NXN 2015 are
shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at
NXN 2014, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30
teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... The top 4 teams at NXN
were all ranked in my pre-season top 7 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
The top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners ... and many of these teams are teams that have qualified for NXN on multiple occasions ... This year is no different ... Entering the 2016 season, I do not see a solid favorite on the boys-side ... It would not surprise me if one of a bunch of teams make it to the top spot.
Neuqua Valley IL finished 19th at NXN Nationals last year and they return their top four scorers from NXN Nationals ... Neuqua Valley ran very well at NXN Midwest finishing a very decent 2nd to Sandburg IL (a favorite to make the podium at Nationals) ... My main concern about projecting Neuqua Valley on top is their mediocre performance at NXN Nationals, but the raw numbers give them a pre-season advantage ... Neuqua Valley could go 7 runners deep, so they make the top spot here.
American Fork UT has finished
8th or
better in the last seven NXN championships ... American
Fork was 2nd at NXN last year, 2nd at NXN 2012, 7th at NXN 2013 and
5th at NXN 2014 ... Initially, I had America Fork on top entering
2016 ... American
Fork returns the best top-three runner nucleus (Casey Clinger, McKay
Johns and Patrick Parker), and that typically gets a team deep in talent
a top ranking, and American
Fork is usually deep in talent ... But I like my speed rating
numbers (sometimes too much
),
and American
Fork graduated four runners from last year's NXN team ... Looking at XC
performances from other varsity and JV runners last year indicates American
Fork will need to "reload" at the other scoring positions in order
to win NXN 2016, but I think that could happen ... Neuqua
Valley appears to already have scorers, so that's why Neuqua
Valley gets the benefit-of-the-doubt ....... BUT American Fork
has raced well at the new Glendoveer course, and I almost put American Fork
on top for that reason.
Side-Note about Speed Ratings ... Although American Fork finished 4th at NXN Southwest last year, speed ratings clearly identified American Fork as the top "At-Large" team amongst all potential At-Large teams ... and their 2nd-place finish justified their selection to NXN.
Dana Hills CA finished 3rd at NXN National last year and returns four runners ... other potential scorers from last year's varsity and JV teams appear capable of giving Dana Hills a good five scorers, so Dana Hills gets the 3rd-spot of the pre-season list ...... In many past years, I would have dropped Dana Hills down a number of spots because they were from California and some California teams raced poorly at the muddy Portland Meadows course ... However, California teams have raced well at the Glendoveer course.
Lone Peak UT finished 11th at NXN National last year and returns five runners ... Utah looks very strong again this season.
Great Oak CA is the defending NXN Champion ... Great Oak graduated six runners from last year's championship team and typically, that would drop a team from top-spot consideration the following year ... However, Great Oak had a deep JV team at a high level last year, and the speed rating numbers have Great Oak highly ranked entering the 2016 season.
Christian Brothers NJ has been one of the favorites in a number of recent seasons ... CBA returns just three runners from last year's team that finished 20th at NXN Nationals ... But CBA typically has a very deep team, and last year was no exception ... Raw speed ratings from returning CBA runners gets CBA highly ranked again this season.
Lehi (Skyridge HS) UT finished 2nd to Davis at the Utah State Meet last year (Class 5A) and Lehi beat both American Fork and Lone Peak at States... Lehi returns six runners (including 4 scorers from States) ... Their top runner graduated and Lehi did not have their best race at NXN Southwest (otherwise, I would ranked them a bit higher) ... Aug 3rd update - the new Skyridge HS has opened in Lehi, UT ... the Lehi coach from 2015 is now the coach at Skyridge, and all but one of the last year's Lehi team are at Skyridge.
Lake Zurich IL finished 5th at Illinois States and 11th at NXN Midwest ... However, Lake Zurich returns their top four scorers with the top three above 180 speed ratings forming a strong starting nucleus ... Improvement at the #5 position could make Lake Zurich very good.
Solon OH finished 3rd at Ohio States last year and return their top six runners (top two above 180 speed ratings and three in the upper 160s).
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
The New York State Teams ... Unfortunately, New York does not look as strong as 2014 when Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN and Liverpool and St. Anthony's finished 4th and 8th respectively ... More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles ... Overall, New York has uncertainty with respect to the boys teams this coming season.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.