Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2014 XC season into 2015 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below.

I limited the Combined Class list to 32 teams after starting with 70+ teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested ... A lot can change between mid-July and November.

                  Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2015

         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 32 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------

    1    St. Anthony's           200      (CHSAA)
    2    East Aurora             205      (06-C )
    3    Pittsford Mendon        220      (05-B )
    4    Shenendehowa            225      (02-A )
    5    Fayetteville-Manlius    226      (03-A )
    6    Liverpool               250      (03-A )
    7    Warwick Valley          251      (09-A )
    8    Guilderland             270      (02-A )
    9    Xavier                  310      (CHSAA)
    10   Arlington               355      (01-A )
    11   Corning                 365      (04-A )
    12   Mount Academy           370      (09-C )
    13   Honeoye Falls-Lima      380      (05-B )
    14   Saratoga                390      (02-A )
    15   Fairport                425      (05-A )
    16   Fordham Prep            435      (CHSAA)
    17   St. Joe's-Buffalo       455      (CHSAA)
    18   Brighton                470      (05-B )
    19   Port Washington         480      (08-A )
    20   Calhoun                 485      (08-A )
    21   Ithaca                  490      (04-A )
    22   McQuaid                 495      (05-A )
    23   Maine-Endwell           500      (04-B )
    24   Mamaroneck              515      (01-A )
    25   Sachem East             520      (11-A )
    26   Brewster                540      (01-B )
    27   Pleasantville           550      (01-C )
    28   Cornwall                560      (09-B )
    29   Bayport-BluePt          570      (11-B )
    30   Colonie                 571      (02-A )
    31   Baldwinsville           605      (03-A )
    32   Chaminade               615      (CHSAA)

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2014 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted to ... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.

In General ... There are no Class A teams in the top 3 teams listed above ... That is highly unusual ... Based on raw numbers alone, East Aurora would be ranked at the top, but I include some speculation in the projection ... St. Anthony's is the top team if only 4 runners are used to score the results, and St. Anthony's typically has a deep team suggesting likely improvement at the #5 scoring position, so St. Anthony's gets placed at #1.

Overall, I see a lot of uncertainty in the team scores posted above ... Using Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool as examples (they finished 1st and 4th at NXN Nationals last year) - It would not be surprising if they developed new runners to perform at a high scoring level and end up the season in the top three NY teams ... I can make a similar case for any of the top 11 teams above.

Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool were very solid top choices in NY entering XC last year ... 2015 looks very different ... Not much is separating a bunch of teams ... In horseracing terms, this looks like a great betting race ... Lots of legitimate options in a wide open field ... Should be interesting to watch the development throughout the XC season.

Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Shenendehowa            190      (02-A )
    2    Fayetteville-Manlius    191      (03-A )
    3    Liverpool               200      (03-A )
    4    Warwick Valley          201      (09-A )
    5    Guilderland             205      (02-A )
    6    Arlington               235      (01-A )
    7    Corning                 260      (04-A )
    8    Saratoga                270      (02-A )
    9    Fairport                300      (05-A )
    10   Calhoun                 350      (08-A )
    11   Port Washington         351      (08-A )
    12   Ithaca                  360      (04-A )
    13   McQuaid                 361      (05-A )
    14   Sachem East             370      (11-A )
    15   Mamaroneck              390      (01-A )
    16   Colonie                 420      (02-A )
    17   Baldwinsville           450      (03-A )
    18   Webster Thomas          510      (05-A )
    19   Northport               515      (11-A )
    20   Williamsville North     535      (06-A )
    21   Longwood                540      (11-A )
    22   Syosset                 550      (08-A )
    23   Niskayuna               560      (02-A )
    24   Orchard Park            575      (06-A )
    25   North Rockland          580      (01-A )
    26   Monroe-Woodbury         581      (09-A )
    27   Cicero-North Syracuse   582      (03-A )
    28   Sachem North            590      (11-A )
    29   Shaker                  600      (02-A )
    30   Lockport                605      (06-A )
    31   Smithtown               610      (11-A )
    32   Commack                 620      (11-A )
    33   Kingston                621      (09-A )

Not much separates a bunch of teams in the Class A list above ... As noted in the Combined Class section, this could be wide open.

Shenendehowa gets picked as the top team because they have slightly higher speed ratings for five scorers in returning runners ... Shenendehowa graduated 4 of their top 6 runners from last year, but they did have a deep team ... They finished 2nd to FM at States.

Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending NY State Class A and NXN National champion ... Fayetteville-Manlius won both of those races impressively ... However, FM lost 5 of their top 7 runners to graduation ... How fast they reload is speculation.

Liverpool did not compete at States last year because Liverpool and FM are both in Section 3 and only the winning team is allowed to compete at States ... Liverpool graduated 4 of their top 7 runners from last year.

Warwick Valley returns 5 of their 7 runners from States last year, including three scorers ... Guilderland returns 6 of 7 runners from sectionals and NXN regional, including their top runner ... The number of returning runners obviously helps Warwick Valley and Guilderland ... But pre-season projection requires some speculation about the ability of teams to reload and what has happened in that regard in past years ... The order and scores in the Class A list above is simply a best guess.

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2014
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Shenendehowa
  Mitch Halpern         12    173     169 174 173 160 175 166 172 166
  Tyler Schmidt         12    169     146 171 168 180 168 167 167
  Alex Matson           11    164     154 166 166 151 168 164 166 148
  Henry Christopher     12    163     165 158 161 156 160 147
  Nick Roig             12    157     153 153 162 151 153 151
  Josh Lacey            11    156     158 152 145
  Mike Collins          12    152     146 157 147 140 141

Fayetteville-Manlius
  Peter Ryan            12    191     192 184 186 194 185 193 181
  Joe Walters           11    175     174 175 176 174 165 160 142
  Patrick Perry         11    168     158 168 172 167 162
  Bryan Geehrer         12    158     156 156 160
  Ben Otis              10    155     148 159 144
  Jack Boltman          11    148     152 140 144 143
  Sean Donlon           12    142     140 143
  Ken Kaiser            12    141     142 136
  Brendan Pearl         12    140     142 134

Guilderland
  Noah Carey            11    185     181 186 187 185 187 185 182 185 182 178 183 178
  Noah Tindale          9     168     147 169 174 165 168 167 164
  Jared Capuano         12    163     159 166 163 159 156 164 157 153 162 161 152
  Ethan McDonald        12    159     147 158 166 157 157 158 146 148 147 149 132
  Victor Warner         12    151     146 150 156 149 146 157 145 145 147 146 134
  Andrew Horan          11    139     133 130 141 140 145 141
  Ryan Ericson          11    138     118 144

Liverpool
  Ben Petrella          12    191     190 188 195 195 190 191 181 184
  Ty Brownlow           11    176     178 174 173 170 172 172 165 160
  Ryan Comstock         12    169     169 166 171 163 161 168 165 167
  Stevie Schulz         11    162     164 161 157 149 154 142
  Gabe Albert           11    145     140 148 149 128 105 135
  Ben Rivers            10    144     140 148 141 138 136
  Terrell Coleman       12    144     129 149 142 139
  Julio Roman           12    142     146 136 136 122

Warwick Valley
  Matt Adolph           12    178     167 178 183 175 172 176 173
  Thomas Nafash         11    166     166 165 164 152 156 163 167
  Blake Dellabough      12    164     159 164 162 167 162 163
  Nick Pacelli          12    162     156 163 162 161 160 152
  David Soto            12    155     143 151 157 162 157 147
  Jason Nafash          11    154     150 155 153 148 149
  Dan Lindstrom         11    153     153 151 154 145
  Sean Quinn            11    149     147 150 142

Arlington
  Matthew Dillon        11    171     167 169 173 172 157
  Reece Ragusa          12    162     154 156 168 159 160 166 152 155 157 152
  Connor Stack          12    159     162 158 155 156 153 149 142 142 145
  Eric Sbrolini         12    159     157 156 164 156 154 161 147 151 149 147
  Joe Morrison          12    ---     New - 1600m (4:28.82), 800 (1:57.87)
  Brendan Foley         11    152     152 152 152 145 150 143 150 147 140
  Skyler Rubin          12    141     138 142 139 145 128 133 135 138
  Michael Asselmeyer    11    139     126 131 146 128 143 129 140
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Pittsford Mendon         85      (05-B )
    2    Honeoye Falls-Lima      125      (05-B )
    3    Cornwall                170      (09-B )
    4    Brighton                180      (05-B )
    5    Brewster                181      (01-B )
    6    Maine-Endwell           190      (04-B )
    7    Bayport-BluePt          190      (11-B )
    8    Burnt Hills             250      (02-B )
    9    Hamburg                 290      (06-B )
    10   East Hampton            300      (11-B )
    11   CBA-Albany              305      (02-B )
    12   Carthage                315      (03-B )
    13   Pearl River             320      (01-B )
    14   Sweet Home              321      (06-B )
    15   Queensbury              340      (02-B )
    16   Irondequoit             345      (05-B )
    17   New Hartford            350      (03-B )
    18   Tappan Zee              360      (01-B )
    19   Greece Arcadia          365      (05-B )
    20   John Jay CR             370      (01-B )

Similar to last year, Class B could be interesting in Section 5 since three of the top four projected teams come from Section 5.

Pittsford Mendon is, once again, the defending Class B champion ... They return their top 4 scorers from States, and that makes Pittsford Mendon the top-rated Class B team entering 2015.

Honeoye Falls-Lima returns 6 of 7 runners from Section 5 sectionals last year where they finished 3rd to Pittsford Mendon and Brighton ... Brighton returns 3 of their 5 scores from sectionals.

Cornwall finished 9th at States last year, but return 5 of 7 runners ... Brewster returns 4 of their 5 scorers from sectionals last year ... Maine-Endwell finished 7th at States last year and return their entire team ... Bayport-Blue Point finished 2nd at States, but lose 2 of their top 3 scorers.

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2014
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Pittsford Mendon
  Griffin Hess          12    175     176 169 175 171 175 169 178
  Isaac Goodman         12    175     166 175 176 176 174 173 175
  Henry Burton          12    171     157 172 174 171 175 165 172
  Nathan Lawler         10    167     168 159 166 167 163 163
  Connor Fitzgerald     11    155     158 145 148
  Ryan Young            12    148     145 141 151
  Josh McCarthy         11    144     145 141 140
  Sam Trawick           11    144     145 141 140

Honeoye Falls-Lima
  Coleman Roach         12    171     164 172 173 168 172
  Jackson Tate          12    169     164 166 170 174 171 163 165
  Liam Lyle             11    158     156 160 156 152 153
  Nolan Hoh             12    156     154 156 156 153 150
  Patrick Perry         12    154     151 155 154 155 145
  Devin Perry           12    150     139 150 153 149 149
  Brian Tornatore       12    148     148 148 142
  Erik Spaker           12    147     142 144 152 136
  Thomas Eastman        12    146     141 148 143

Cornwall
  David Brubacher       12    159     144 161 155 161 156 161 166 165
  Christian Scileppi    12    156     147 160 154 160 156 151 147 153
  Alex Vega             12    155     153 158 151 155 144 141 148
  Francisco Rivera      12    153     135 157 154 161 152 135 148 130
  Michael Miller        12    151     139 151 143 149 160
  Andy Lujan            12    142     113 140 148 144 134 131 142 122
  Connor St.Germain     11    139     130 142 133

Brighton
  Paul Dellinger        11    175     173 178 175 175 172 167 171 163
  Drew Schmitt          12    169     159 163 171 173 169 174 178 167
  Jonah Simpson         11    163     161 160 163 168 158 157 159
  Josh Cerasuolo        11    152     146 142 154 159
  Kody Derhak           12    135     132 137 127 134
  Oliver Rapp           11    134     127 137 133 130
  James Keegan          11    128     130 126 125 118 118

Brewster
  Kevin Hazelwood       12    179     182 178 179 175 174 175 171 171 178 170 174
  Mike Delfay           12    162     149 158 164 159 169 161 155 166
  Erik Jacobsen         10    152     153 152 151 153 147 146 146 145
  Luca Riolo            11    150     146 145 152 152 147 149 150 136 154
  Max Greene            12    146     127 151 144 145 147 142 139 136
  Zach Nordstrom        12    146     150 137 137 142 144 138 136
  Ethan Bedrosian       12    134     132 134

Maine-Endwell
  Dan Schaffer          12    185     184 183 183 187 189 186 180 179 180 176 167
  Grayson Hoteling      12    167     174 158 157 169 161 161 156 149 150 153 150
  Nick Taylor           12    161     160 164 159 155 159 153 145 147 148
  Matt Goyden           11    145     136 140 150 135 143 131 149 138 138 140
  Jimmy Hackett         12    141     124 137 145 142 128 128
  Joel Wheeler          11    140     129 136 140 141 134 143 138 134 136 136
  Terrence Sinclair     11    133     123 128 134 133 128 131 138 127 127 134
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    East Aurora              55      (06-C )
    2    Mount Academy            95      (09-C )
    3    Pleasantville           170      (01-C )
    4    Bronxville              230      (01-C )
    5    Watkins Glen            260      (04-C )
    6    Adirondack              275      (03-C )
    7    James O'Neill           276      (09-C )
    8    Gowanda                 280      (06-C )
    9    Dover                   285      (09-C )
    10   Marcellus               300      (03-C )
    11   Taconic Hills           320      (02-C )
    12   Oyster Bay              335      (08-C )
    13   Newark Valley           336      (04-C )
    14   Greenville              340      (02-C )
    15   Southampton             350      (11-C )
    16   Irvington               360      (01-C )
    17   Pawling                 375      (01-C )
    18   Bath-Haverling          395      (05-C )
    19   Windsor                 400      (04-C )
    20   Hannibal                410      (03-C )
    21   Holland Patent          415      (03-C )
    22   Onteora                 420      (09-C )
    23   Saranac                 430      (07-C )

Mount Academy was the 2013 State Class D champion ... Last year, they moved up from Class D to Class C ... Mount Academy lost to East Aurora by only 17 points at the State Meet ... They lose 4 runners from States to graduation, but they have very good depth team for a Class C team.

Pleasantville finished 3rd at last year's State Meet ... They return 4 of their top 6 runners from States.

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2014
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
East Aurora
  Kenny Vasbinder       12    191     193 194 189 187 189 185 187 182 184
  Matt McLaughlin       12    167     154 167 162 174 172 169 169 175 170
  Patrick Murray        11    165     153 160 170 168 172 160 165 157 156 163
  TJ Murray             12    165     161 158 169 164 160 164 168 166 164
  Will Zink             12    165     167 155 158 162 151 168 165 165 162
  Bryan Hensen          12    162     158 157 163 163 161 158 166 162 163
  Kevin Murnock         12    160     158 157 158 163 164 165 165 159 158
  Ian Russ              10    157     144 163 152 154 150

Mount Academy
  Baxter Wareham        12    168     155 161 171 157 166 172 170 178 158 170
  Daryl Blough          11    163     161 161 165 158 164 167 153 153
  Kent Kurtz            11    162     162
  Martin Kurtz          12    160     133 161 165
  Brendan Baird         11    155     150 156 148 150 150 160 163 151 152 150
  Bernard King          11    146     147 146 139 135
  Lester Noble          11    142     143 141 135 127
  Michael Barth         11    139     140 138

Pleasantville
  Drew Dorflinger       12    167     169 169 164 162 157 156 160 164 150
  Aidan McDermott       12    164     159 169 156 161 161 162 138 161 153
  JC Yahia              11    155     156 157 151 155 147 153 149 146 153
  Declan McDermott      10    154     155 156 150 152 145 152 146 149 145
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Beaver River            110      (03-D )      
    2    Lake Placid             145      (07-D )      
    3    Sauquoit Valley         180      (03-D )      
    4    Maple Grove             185      (06-D )      
    5    Haldane                 190      (01-D )      
    6    Clymer Sherman          195      (06-D )      
    7    Norwood-Norfolk         196      (10-D )      
    8    East Rochester          200      (05-D )      
    9    Trumansburg             220      (04-D )      
    10   Greenwich               240      (02-D )      
    11   Randolph                245      (06-D )      
    12   Afton                   250      (04-D )      
    13   Tully                   255      (03-D )      
    14   Barker                  270      (06-D )      
    15   Hawthorne Valley        275      (02-D )      
    16   Delhi                   295      (04-D )      
    17   Addison                 300      (05-D )      
    18   New York Mills          310      (03-D ) 

Lake Placid finished 5th at States last year and return all 5 scorers form States.

As normal, there is a lot of uncertainty in the pre-season for many small school teams ... Which teams will develop the most over the course of the season is a guess.

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2014
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Beaver River
  Brett Neddo           12    156     153 158 159 150 154 154 148 150 147 141
  Erik Campeau          10    152     151 154 146 155 148 143 149 153 152 145
  Connor Demo           10    149     143 148 139 151 153 156 152 142 150 147
  Greg Virkler          12    143     142 140 138 144 145 149 141 137 132 133
  Troy Purcell          12    138     139 139 136 111 142 133 131 123 133
  Cameron Smith         10    108     110 108 109 109 111 94 84 72 78

Lake Placid
  Karl Schultz          12    165     157 167 167 152 158
  Scott Shultz          10    151     150 153 147 132 142
  Forest Ledger         12    143     141 145 138 135 140
  Trent White           11    139     133 141 138 133 138
  Nick Saulpaugh        12    118     120 118 108 101

Sauquoit Valley
  Devin Murphy          12    151     151 152 143 142
  Taylor Philpotts      10    148     152 140 147 145 140 129 129
  Steven Philpotts      12    137     135 141 133 132 131 129
  Zachary Ward          9     136     137 135 134 133 110
  Matthew Pabon         12    115     124 111 72 100 77 80
  Sean Kehler           11    110     115 99 107 110 101 88 82
  Justin Grago          10    107     106 110 91 105 93 92 105
		

 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    St. Anthony's            52      (CHSAA)
    2    Xavier                   85      (CHSAA)
    3    Fordham Prep            105      (CHSAA)
    4    St. Joe's-Buffalo       135      (CHSAA)
    5    Chaminade               150      (CHSAA)
    6    Archbishop Molloy       200      (CHSAA)
    7    Susan Wagner            225      (PSAL )
    8    Brooklyn Tech           230      (PSAL )
    9    St. John Bapt           231      (CHSAA)
    10   McKee/Staten            235      (PSAL )
    11   Midwood                 236      (PSAL )
    12   St. Joseph Sea          260      (CHSAA)
    13   Collegiate              265      (AIS  )
    14   Regis                   330      (CHSAA)
    15   Trinity School          340      (AIS  )

Xavier returns 4 of 7 runners from last year's team that finished 4th at Federations ... Fordham Prep might be the surprise if they develop some additional scoring depth.

Some CHSAA-AIS Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2014
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Frederick Buckholtz   12    182     181 185 182 173 182 183 178 175 173 169
  Ryan Kutch            12    176     172 172 182 171 178 172 177 169 163 160
  Ryan Dearie           12    175     163 178 177 173 176 172 175 173 168 167
  Christopher Langer    12    167     166 170 167 165 160 166 160
  Timothy Violino       12    151     150 141 155 148 147
  Dutch Schultz         11    149     150 145 149
  Jack Regan            12    149     131 156 145 135 137
  Sean Vierling         11    148     146 148 149 144

Xavier
  Christian Raslowsky   12    175     172 176 176 175 172 173 173
  Giancarlo Cipri       11    169     161 167 170 174 169 171 171
  Dominick Ronan        12    165     159 163 168 167 167 156
  Raphael Otell         10    158     158 157 151
  Ben Karam             12    152     150 150 153 152 154 147
  William McCann        11    149     140 152
  Jonathan Kaufmann     11    139     130 143

Fordham Prep
  Conor Lundy           12    189     189 189 188 188 189 187 184
  Conor Miller          12    173     162 173 177 176 173 167 159
  Matthew Dougherty     12    158     78 158 162 157 161 147 140
  Conor Hughes          12    152     145 144 151 157 159 150
  Alec Bidwell          12    149     148 141 152
  Marc Guberti          12    147     123 140 147 149

St. Joe's-Buffalo
  Anthony Belfatto      12    171     169 168 170 176 170 168
  Liam Hilbert          12    166     166 163 166 156
  William Hilbert       12    162     162 162
  Marcus Brown          12    156     145 152 155 158 162 162
  Reed Bihary           12    144     138 135 150 140
  Jack DiGesare         12    142     130 141 141 147 134 142