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Pre-Season XC 2013
GIRLS Teams - National 2013
Bill Meylan (July 23, 2013)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.
|National GIRLS Teams|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2013 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 200 New York 2 Assumption KY 220 Southeast 3 Carmel IN 235 Midwest 4 Great Oak CA 240 California 5 Simi Valley CA 250 California 6 Holy Names NY 255 New York 7 Wayzata MN 270 Heartland 8 Pennsbury PA 300 Northeast 9 Naperville North IL 330 Midwest 10 Coeur D'Alene ID 335 Northwest 11 Fort Collins CO 355 Southwest 12 Glenbard West IL 375 Midwest 13 Saline MI 390 Midwest 14 Pleasant Valley IA 395 Heartland 15 St. Francis (sac) CA 400 California 16 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast 17 Unionville PA 415 Northeast 18 Burnt Hills NY 420 New York 19 Xavier College Prep AZ 425 Southwest 20 Saratoga NY 430 New York 21 Monarch CO 435 Southwest 22 Southlake Carroll TX 440 South 23 Saugus CA 450 California 24 Linn-Mar IA 455 Heartland 25 Arrowhead WI 460 Heartland 26 Providence NC 465 Southeast 27 Barrington RI 470 Northeast 28 Pine Creek CO 480 Southwest 29 Geneva IL 485 Midwest 30 American Fork UT 490 Southwest The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled a lot: Davis UT Southwest (added Aug 29) Camas WA Northwest Tatnall DE Southeast Serrano CA California Cardinal Gibbons NC Southeast Grosse Pointe South MI Midwest Seaholm MI Midwest Dowling Catholic IA Heartland Capistrano Valley CA California Coe-Brown NH Northeast Yucaipa CA California Sehome WA Northwest (added Aug 2) Buchanan CA California Mira Costa CA California Lewisville Marcus TX South Bonita CA California Davis Sr. CA California Bismarck ND Heartland Voorhees NJ Northeast Mountain Brook AL Southeast O'Fallon IL Midwest Bowling Green KY Southeast Morgantown WV Southeast Sandburg IL Midwest Palatine IL Midwest St. Mary's Academy OR Northwest Traverse City MI Midwest Central Bucks West PA Northeast Dowling Catholic IA Heartland Jesuit OR Northwest Green Hope NC Southeast Bishop Feehan MA Northeast Liverpool NY New York Mountain Crest UT Southwest Classical Academy CO Southwest Suffern NY New York Edina MN Heartland Neenah WI Heartland The Woodlands TX South Humble Kingwood TX South Centerville OH Midwest San Clemente CA California St. Thomas Aquinas FL Southeast *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Hopefully, the girl's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2013 XC season in a reasonable order ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2012 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2012 are shown in a table below... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2012, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 10 of the top 12 teams at NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 22 teams ... I missed a NY team (East Aurora).
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Fayetteville-Manlius ... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on the top four FM runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the pre-season favorite to win NXN once again because they won it the past 7 years and they return a solid core of runners ... But in all honesty, FM might be vulnerable in 2013 ... One of their top returning runners (Mary Barger) is transferring to another school in NY ... FM does not appear to be as deep as in recent years ... and they are facing some very talented teams .... If the rankings were based solely on numbers from returning runners, Assumption KY would ranked on top.
Saratoga ... Saratoga gets my "benefit-of-the-doubt" for a top #20 ranking because of their success within NY and at NXN ... Saratoga loses their top two runners to graduation and lose their next runner via transfer to Holy Names ... Even though Saratoga appears much weaker in 2013, they've shown an ability in the past to "re-load" quickly ... As a remainder of success at NXN over the years, here are the Saratoga girl's finishes at Portland Meadows:
. NXN 2012 - 5th
..... I have a bias for teams with proven ability in the past ... 15 teams in this year's pre-season top 32 competed at NXN Nationals last year.
Holy Names (or more correctly, Academy of the Holy Names in Albany, NY) ... Holy Names is ranked highly because they got a top transfer from Saratoga (Olivia Morrow) and they return a talented group of runners ... More info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections and Top NY Girls Profiles.
Assumption KY returns their top 6 runners, and they finished 10th in the Portland Meadows slop last year.
Carmel IN returns 6 of their 7 NXN runners including their top three ... Carmel finished an excellent 3rd at NXN last year, and they've finished in the top 7 the past three years.
Great Oak CA returns 4 of their top five runners from last year, and Great Oak has a very deep team ... Their high ranking is justified by demonstrated XC performance in CA and trips outside CA during the season ... But Portland Meadows in December is not their "best" course.
Simi Valley CA has Sarah Baxter who will be the top-rated individual "high school" harrier in the nation ... starting a team score with a "1" is really helpful. ... If rumors of new talent prove true, Fayetteville-Manlius could be in trouble (if NXN was held at Mt Sac).
Southlake Carroll TX ... I did some guessing here due to graduations (they lost 3 of their top 4 to graduation) ... Southlake Carroll always seems to reload, so I placed them in the top 22, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do better (which I said last year).
Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is in the same section and same class in NY as Holy Names which means only one of them can qualify for the NY State Meet ... It is entirely possible that Burnt Hills will not qualify as one of the 11 Class B teams to compete in the NY State Meet; but Burnt Hills will qualify or be selected to compete at NXN Nationals, and Burnt Hills will finish in the top ten at NXN Nationals ... Burnt Hills competed at NXN in 2007 and 2008 and finished 5th and 8th respectively.
|Last Year's (2012) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2012 Pre-Season Projection -------------------- ----- ----- ------ ---------------------------- --------------------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 90 New York 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #1 pre-season 2 Saratoga NY 265 New York 2 Southlake Carroll TX - #19 pre-season 3 Tatnall DE 270 Southeast 3 Carmel IN - #8 pre-season 4 Fort Collins CO 275 Southwest 4 East Aurora NY - unranked 5 New Trier IL 280 Midwest 5 Saratoga NY - #2 pre-season 6 Grosse Pointe South MI 290 Midwest 6 Tatnall ED - #3 pre-season 7 Holy Names NY 310 New York 7 Wayzata MN - unranked 8 Carmel IN 330 Midwest 8 Fort Collins CO - #4 pre-season 9 Simi Valley CA 335 California 9 Pennsbury PA - #20 pre-season 10 Monarch CO 340 Southwest 10 Assumption KY - #14 pre-season 11 Xavier College Prep AZ 350 Southwest 11 New Trier IL - #5 pre-season 12 Saugus CA 360 California 12 Davis UT - #22 pre-season 13 La Costa Canyon CA 365 California 13 Camas WA - #30+ group pre-season 14 Assumption KY 390 Southeast 14 Coeur D'Alene ID - #30+ group pre-season 15 Estero FL 410 Southeast 15 Naperville North IL - unranked 16 Saline MI 430 Midwest 16 Great Oak CA - #29 pre-season 17 Bozeman MT 440 Northwest 17 Saugus CA - #12 pre-season 18 Glacier Peak WA 445 Northwest 18 Pine Creek CO - unranked 19 Southlake Carroll TX 450 South 19 Eagan MN - unranked 20 Pennsbury PA 460 Northeast 20 St. Francis CA - #30+ group pre-season 21 Wheaton Warrenville S IL 470 Midwest 21 The Woodlands TX - unranked 22 Davis UT 475 Southwest 22 Voorhees NJ - #30+ group pre-season 23 Vista Del Lago CA 476 California 24 Bronxville NY 480 New York 25 Dowling Catholic IA 481 Heartland 26 Neenah WI 482 Heartland 27 Aptos CA 490 California 28 San Clemente CA 491 California 29 Great Oak CA 495 California 30 Burnt Hills NY 500 New York