Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
I limited the Combined Class list to 40
teams after starting with 70+ teams ... I would have limited it to fewer
teams, but I wanted to include Tully
.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2013
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 40 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 110 (03-A )
2 Holy Names 130 (02-B )
3 Burnt Hills 210 (02-B )
4 Saratoga 250 (02-A )
5 Suffern 350 (01-A )
6 Liverpool 380 (03-A )
7 Penfield 400 (05-A )
8 North Shore 420 (08-B )
9 Garden City 425 (08-B )
10 Miller Place 430 (11-B )
11 East Aurora 435 (06-B )
12 Queensbury 445 (02-B )
13 Bronxville 450 (01-C )
14 Cornwall 460 (09-B )
15 Shenendehowa 480 (02-A )
16 Canton 490 (10-B )
17 Pittsford Mendon 495 (05-B )
18 Pearl River 500 (01-B )
19 Northport 510 (11-A )
20 Maple Grove 515 (06-D )
21 Starpoint 530 (06-B )
22t Sachem East 550 (11-A )
22t St. Anthony's 550 (CHSAA)
22t Rush-Henrietta 550 (05-A )
22t Warwick Valley 550 (09-A )
22t Honeoye Falls-Lima 550 (05-B )
27 Hilton 560 (05-A )
28 Shaker 570 (02-A )
29t Tappan Zee 580 (01-B )
29t Colonie 580 (02-A )
31 Cicero-North Syracuse 590 (03-A )
32t Guilderland 610 (02-A )
32t Nanuet 610 (01-B )
32t Westhill-Ludden 610 (03-B )
32t Elmira District 610 (04-A )
36t East Syracuse-Minoa 630 (03-B )
36t Bethlehem 630 (02-A )
36t Clarence 630 (06-A )
39 Tully 650 (03-D )
40 Baldwinsville 655 (03-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012
seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on
track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted
to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 40 teams to show some depth and include Tully.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the seven-time defending National champion ... Fayetteville-Manlius will be the #1 ranked team in the nation entering the 2013 cross country season ... However, Fayetteville-Manlius could face a serious challenge from Holy Names within NY State.
Some Major Points of Interest were noted in the Girls Individual Profiles ... (1) Olivia Morrow (top returning runner from Saratoga) has transferred to Holy Names ... (2) Mary Barger (a top returner for Fayetteville-Manlius) is transferring to Pittsford Mendon ... This clearly has a big impact on team projection.
Fayetteville-Manlius loses three State Meet/NXN runners to graduation (Jillian Fanning, Katie Brislin and Michelle Duffy) plus FM loses Mary Barger to transfer ... That leaves a core of three returning runners (Alana Pearl, Annika Avery and Jenna Farrell) ... This returning core of three runners stacks-up very nicely with any similar core from any team in the nation (especially when team performance at NXN is factored in) ... Coach Bill Aris and Fayetteville-Manlius have an excellent record of cross country runner improvement to the elite level from one year to the next plus a successful record of development via "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) ... Therefore, I believe a reasonable assumption is that Fayetteville-Manlius will fill the scoring positions quite nicely.
Holy Names has five runners with overall speed ratings that range from 120 to 134 ... Entering last year's NXN Nationals, only five or six teams nationally could equal or exceed that performance level (Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga were two of them) ... Last year, Estela Smith transferred from Saratoga to Holy Names ... Olivia Morrow is doing the same this year ... Holy Names will be ranked in the top 10 nationally entering 2013.
Saratoga takes a hit losing their top three runners from 2012 (Taylor Driscoll, Keelin Hollowood and Olivia Morrow) ... However, Saratoga still has a good group of returning runners and long history of developing "new" and talented runners, which I think could happen again in 2013 ... I will be watching the development of the Saratoga junior high runners who will be running on the varsity team (Note - Saratoga does not have a modified cross country team).
Burnt Hills is another NY team
with talent worthy of national ranking ... Burnt Hills returns
five of their top six runners including their top three, and Burnt
Hills is very deep in talent ...Last year, Burnt Hills was
3rd at Feds (behind Saratoga and Holy Names) and a fairly
close 5th at NXN-NY Regional (behind FM, Saratoga, East
Aurora and Holy Names) ... Might have been interesting had
all five teams been allowed to run at NXN Nationals.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.
.