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Pre-Season XC 2013
BOYS Teams - National 2013
Bill Meylan (July 23, 2013)
|Boys - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess.
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2013|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2013 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Christian Brothers NJ 220 Northeast 2 Arcadia CA 240 California 3 American Fork UT 260 Southwest 4 West Chester Henderson PA 265 Northeast 5 North Central WA 270 Northwest 6 Carmel IN 310 Midwest 7 Brentwood HS TN 330 Southeast 8 Gig Harbor WA 335 Northwest 9
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2013 XC season in a reasonable order ... If it does, I made some decent guesses ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2012 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2012 are shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2012, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 35 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 14 of the 22 NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 35 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Christian Brothers NJ is the pre-season favorite ... CBA returns five of their seven NXN runners ... their two top scorers graduated, but CBA has a very deep team and can be expected to go seven runners deep at a high level ... Combined with impressive track performances, a strong core of returning runners, and a very decent 4th-place finish at NXN 2012, Christian Brothers NJ becomes my top-rated team.
Arcadia CA is the defending NXN champion ... Arcadia also returns five of their seven NXN runners (one graduated and one transferred to a school in WA) ... Arcadia's successful coach, Jim O'Brien, will not be coaching this season, and that may have some impact on team success ... However, Arcadia is still very talented and a serious threat to repeat as NXN champion.
American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last four NXN championships ... Last year, American Fork became a "podium" team with an excellent 2nd-place performance ... they also return five runners from last year's NXN team, and they have additional talent ... American Fork ran a smart team race at NXN 2012 ... 2013 could be their year to win it all.
West Chester Henderson PA returns six of their seven NXN runners ... the extreme mud of NXN 2012 was not kind to West Chester Henderson (they were not alone) ... Pennsylvania had an NXN team champion in 2006 (Coatesville Boys), and West Chester Henderson is a contender this coming season.
The New York State Teams .... I'm actually amazed that five New York teams are included in the lists above:
.. Fayetteville-Manlius gets respect because of prior appearances and success at NXN ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 7 times with three podium finishes ... Last year, five FM guys were knocked to the ground early in the NXN race (including top runner Nick Ryan who graduated) ... FM's placement on this national list assumes some team "re-loading" with new talent, but it's happened in the past.
.. Saratoga would be ranked higher on the list, but one of their scorers transferred to Ohio ... Saratoga was NXN champion in 2005.
.. Liverpool is young and improving (could be the surprise in NY) .. Northport moves up some due to very good track performances .. St. Anthony's is deep .... More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles.
Why do New York teams do well on my lists? ... (1) one reason could be that I have more data on the NY teams which could show a "data bias" (more data to find good results) ... (2) Lots of graduation from last year's top teams makes the national level seem a bit weak due to lack of information on demonstrated cross country ability ... I place a lot more emphasis on demonstrated cross country performances as opposed to track performances ... "Track is Not Cross Country".
Note ... For any pre-season rankings, I give credit to teams that are good on an annual basis ... The Woodlands TX has been to NXN 8 times, Southlake Carroll TX and North Central WA have been to NXN 6 times, Dana Hills CA has been to NXN 5 times, and Wayzata MN 4 times.
Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.
|Last Year's (2012) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2012 Pre-Season Projection ------------------ ----- ----- ------ --------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Southlake Carroll TX 250 South 1 Arcadia CA - #35+ group 2 North Central WA 260 Northwest 2 American Fork UT - #9 pre-season 3 Christian Brothers NJ 270 Northeast 3 North Central WA - #2 pre-season 4 York IL 280 Midwest 4 Christian Brothers NJ - #3 pre-season 5 Davis UT 300 Southwest 5 Cardinal O'Hara PA - #35 pre-season 6 Bismarck ND 350 Heartland 6 York IL - #4 pre-season 7 Carmel IN 360 Midwest 7 Kamiakin WA - #35+ group 8 Seattle Prep WA 380 Northwest 8 Southlake Carrol TX - #1 pre-season 9 American Fork UT 400 Southwest 9 St. Xavier OH - unranked 10 Central Catholic OR 410 Northwest 10 Blacksburg VA - unranked 11 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 405 New York 11 Carmel IN - #7 pre-season 12 Stillwater MN 415 Heartland 12 Saratoga NY - #35+ group 13 Bishop Hendricken RI 420 Northeast 13 Davis UT - #5 pre-season 14 Belvidere North IL 425 Midwest 14 St. Xavier KY - #29 pre-season 15 Gig Harbor WA 430 Northwest 15 W Chester Henderson PA - unranked 16 Summit OR 435 Northwest 16 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #11 pre-season 17 Cleveland NM 440 Southwest 17 Bismarck ND - #6 pre-season 18 Siuslaw OR 450 Northwest 18 Carlsbad CA - #35+ group 19 Trabuco Hills CA 470 California 19 Dowling Catholic IA - #27 pre-season 20 O'Fallon IL 480 Midwest 20 California (Whitt) CA - unranked 21 Mountain Vista CO 485 Southwest 21 Summit OR - #16 pre-season 22 Valparaiso IN 490 Midwest 22 The Woodlands TX - #34 pre-season 23 Belen Jesuit FL 495 Southeast 24 Lawrence Central IN 500 Midwest 25 Highland Milford MI 501 Midwest 26 Waterford Mott MI 501 Midwest 27 Dowling Catholic IA 510 Heartland 29 St. Xavier KY 515 Southeast 29 St. Anthony's NY 520 New York 30 W Windsor-Plainsboro S NJ 525 Northeast 31 St. John Bosco CA 530 California 32 Lexington SC 535 Southeast 33 Arlington NY 540 New York 34 The Woodlands TX 550 South 35 Cardinal O'Hara PA 560 Northeast