My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess
.
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2013
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Christian Brothers NJ 220 Northeast
2 Arcadia CA 240 California
3 American Fork UT 260 Southwest
4 West Chester Henderson PA 265 Northeast
5 North Central WA 270 Northwest
6 Carmel IN 310 Midwest
7 Brentwood HS TN 330 Southeast
8 Gig Harbor WA 335 Northwest
9 Poly (Long Beach) CA 340 California **see note below
10 Broughton NC 370 Southeast
11 O'Fallon IL 375 Midwest
12 Don Bosco NJ 380 Northeast
13 Tatnall DE 385 Southeast
14 Southlake Carroll TX 390 South
15 Nathan Hale WA 395 Northwest
16 Belen Jesuit FL 396 Southeast
17 McCallie TN 397 Southeast
18 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 400 New York
18 Saratoga NY 400 New York
20 Central Catholic OR 405 Northwest
21 Dana Hills CA 406 California
22 Wazata MN 407 Heartland
23 York IL 408 Midwest
24 Liverpool NY 410 New York
25 Highland-Milford MI 420 Midwest
26 Columbus North IN 430 Midwest
27 Mason OH 440 Midwest
28 Mountain Vista CO 445 Southwest
29 Central Valley WA 450 Northwest
30 Northport NY 450 New York
** Note: (Aug 31) - two of top five runners (Poly CA) not running
for team this fall ... Should be placed near bottom of
of extra list below
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well
Kamiakin WA Northwest
St. Anthony's NY New York
The Woodlands TX South
Pembroke MA Northeast
Seattle Prep WA Northwest
Cardinal O'Hara PA Northeast
Hil. Davidson OH Midwest
Lewisville Marcus TX South
Westlake CA California
Hillsborough NJ Northeast
De La Salle CA California
Midlothian VA Southeast
Edina MN Heartland
Hinsdale (Central) IL Midwest
College Park TX South
Neuqua Valley IL Midwest
Herriman Xc UT Southwest
Madera South CA California
Rogers AR South
Bismarck ND Heartland
Linn-Mar IA Heartland
Palatine IL Midwest
Seneca East OH Midwest
Twinsburg OH Midwest
Bozeman MT Northwest
North Allegheny PA Northeast
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of
the top teams entering the 2013 XC season in a reasonable order ... If
it does, I made some decent guesses
... As a point of reference for last year, my 2012 pre-season
projections with corresponding results from NXN 2012 are
shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at
NXN 2012, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 35
teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 14 of the 22 NXN teams
were ranked in my pre-season top 35 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Christian Brothers NJ is the pre-season favorite ... CBA returns five of their seven NXN runners ... their two top scorers graduated, but CBA has a very deep team and can be expected to go seven runners deep at a high level ... Combined with impressive track performances, a strong core of returning runners, and a very decent 4th-place finish at NXN 2012, Christian Brothers NJ becomes my top-rated team.
Arcadia CA is the defending NXN champion ... Arcadia also returns five of their seven NXN runners (one graduated and one transferred to a school in WA) ... Arcadia's successful coach, Jim O'Brien, will not be coaching this season, and that may have some impact on team success ... However, Arcadia is still very talented and a serious threat to repeat as NXN champion.
American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last four NXN championships ... Last year, American Fork became a "podium" team with an excellent 2nd-place performance ... they also return five runners from last year's NXN team, and they have additional talent ... American Fork ran a smart team race at NXN 2012 ... 2013 could be their year to win it all.
West Chester Henderson PA returns
six of their seven NXN runners ... the extreme mud of NXN 2012 was not
kind to West Chester Henderson (they were not alone)
... Pennsylvania had an NXN team champion in 2006 (Coatesville Boys),
and West Chester Henderson is a contender this coming season.
The New York State Teams .... I'm actually amazed that five New York teams are included in the lists above:
.. Fayetteville-Manlius gets respect because of prior appearances and success at NXN ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 7 times with three podium finishes ... Last year, five FM guys were knocked to the ground early in the NXN race (including top runner Nick Ryan who graduated) ... FM's placement on this national list assumes some team "re-loading" with new talent, but it's happened in the past.
.. Saratoga would be ranked higher on the list, but one of their scorers transferred to Ohio ... Saratoga was NXN champion in 2005.
.. Liverpool is young and improving (could be the surprise in NY) .. Northport moves up some due to very good track performances .. St. Anthony's is deep .... More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles.
Why do New York teams do well on my lists? ... (1) one reason could be that I have more data on the NY teams which could show a "data bias" (more data to find good results) ... (2) Lots of graduation from last year's top teams makes the national level seem a bit weak due to lack of information on demonstrated cross country ability ... I place a lot more emphasis on demonstrated cross country performances as opposed to track performances ... "Track is Not Cross Country".
Note ... For any pre-season rankings, I give credit to teams that are good on an annual basis ... The Woodlands TX has been to NXN 8 times, Southlake Carroll TX and North Central WA have been to NXN 6 times, Dana Hills CA has been to NXN 5 times, and Wayzata MN 4 times.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
.