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Pre-Season XC 2013

BOYS Teams - National 2013

Bill Meylan (July 23, 2013)

Boys - Potential National Contenders

My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.

Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).

To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.

Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.

Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess.


 Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2013

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2013

      School                 State   Score      Region
      --------------------   -----   -----      ------
  1   Christian Brothers      NJ      220       Northeast
  2   Arcadia                 CA      240       California
  3   American Fork           UT      260       Southwest
  4   West Chester Henderson  PA      265       Northeast
  5   North Central           WA      270       Northwest
  6   Carmel                  IN      310       Midwest
  7   Brentwood HS            TN      330       Southeast
  8   Gig Harbor              WA      335       Northwest
  9   Poly (Long Beach)       CA      340       California **see note below
  10  Broughton               NC      370       Southeast
  11  O'Fallon                IL      375       Midwest
  12  Don Bosco               NJ      380       Northeast
  13  Tatnall                 DE      385       Southeast
  14  Southlake Carroll       TX      390       South
  15  Nathan Hale             WA      395       Northwest
  16  Belen Jesuit            FL      396       Southeast
  17  McCallie                TN      397       Southeast
  18  Fayetteville-Manlius    NY      400       New York
  18  Saratoga                NY      400       New York
  20  Central Catholic        OR      405       Northwest
  21  Dana Hills              CA      406       California
  22  Wazata                  MN      407       Heartland
  23  York                    IL      408       Midwest
  24  Liverpool               NY      410       New York
  25  Highland-Milford        MI      420       Midwest
  26  Columbus North          IN      430       Midwest
  27  Mason                   OH      440       Midwest
  28  Mountain Vista          CO      445       Southwest
  29  Central Valley          WA      450       Northwest
  30  Northport               NY      450       New York
    ** Note: (Aug 31) - two of top five runners (Poly CA) not running
               for team this fall ... Should be placed near bottom of
               of extra list below

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order 
      could be shuffled ... some could be above as well

      Kamiakin                WA        Northwest
      St. Anthony's           NY        New York
      The Woodlands           TX        South
      Pembroke                MA        Northeast
      Seattle Prep            WA        Northwest
      Cardinal O'Hara         PA        Northeast
      Hil. Davidson           OH        Midwest
      Lewisville Marcus       TX        South
      Westlake                CA        California
      Hillsborough            NJ        Northeast
      De La Salle             CA        California
      Midlothian              VA        Southeast
      Edina                   MN        Heartland
      Hinsdale (Central)      IL        Midwest
      College Park            TX        South
      Neuqua Valley           IL        Midwest
      Herriman Xc             UT        Southwest
      Madera South            CA        California
      Rogers                  AR        South
      Bismarck                ND        Heartland
      Linn-Mar                IA        Heartland
      Palatine                IL        Midwest
      Seneca East             OH        Midwest
      Twinsburg               OH        Midwest
      Bozeman                 MT        Northwest
      North Allegheny         PA        Northeast
        *** I may have missed a team or two going through
              my databases as quickly as I did

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).


Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.

Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2013 XC season in a reasonable order ... If it does, I made some decent guesses ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2012 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2012 are shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2012, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 35 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 14 of the 22 NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 35 teams.

General Comments for the Coming Season:

Christian Brothers NJ is the pre-season favorite ... CBA returns five of their seven NXN runners ... their two top scorers graduated, but CBA has a very deep team and can be expected to go seven runners deep at a high level ... Combined with impressive track performances, a strong core of returning runners, and a very decent 4th-place finish at NXN 2012, Christian Brothers NJ becomes my top-rated team.

Arcadia CA is the defending NXN champion ... Arcadia also returns five of their seven NXN runners (one graduated and one transferred to a school in WA) ... Arcadia's successful coach, Jim O'Brien, will not be coaching this season, and that may have some impact on team success ... However, Arcadia is still very talented and a serious threat to repeat as NXN champion.

American Fork UT has finished 8th or better in the last four NXN championships ... Last year, American Fork became a "podium" team with an excellent 2nd-place performance ... they also return five runners from last year's NXN team, and they have additional talent ... American Fork ran a smart team race at NXN 2012 ... 2013 could be their year to win it all.

West Chester Henderson PA returns six of their seven NXN runners ... the extreme mud of NXN 2012 was not kind to West Chester Henderson (they were not alone) ... Pennsylvania had an NXN team champion in 2006 (Coatesville Boys), and West Chester Henderson is a contender this coming season.

The New York State Teams .... I'm actually amazed that five New York teams are included in the lists above:

 .. Fayetteville-Manlius gets respect because of prior appearances and  success at NXN ...  Fayetteville-Manlius has been to NXN 7 times with three podium finishes ... Last year, five FM guys were knocked to the ground early in the NXN race (including top runner Nick Ryan who graduated) ... FM's placement on this national list assumes some team "re-loading" with new talent, but it's happened in the past.

.. Saratoga would be ranked higher on the list, but one of their scorers transferred to Ohio ... Saratoga was NXN champion in 2005.

 .. Liverpool is young and improving (could be the surprise in NY) .. Northport moves up some due to very good track performances .. St. Anthony's is deep .... More info on the NY teams and runners is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team Projections and Top NY Boys Profiles.

Why do New York teams do well on my lists? ... (1) one reason could be that I have more data on the NY teams which could show a "data bias" (more data to find good results) ... (2) Lots of graduation from last year's top teams makes the national level seem a bit weak due to lack of information on demonstrated cross country ability ... I place a lot more emphasis on demonstrated cross country performances as opposed to track performances ... "Track is Not Cross Country".

Note ... For any pre-season rankings, I give credit to teams that are good on an annual basis ... The Woodlands TX has been to NXN 8 times, Southlake Carroll TX and North Central WA have been to NXN 6 times, Dana Hills CA has been to NXN 5 times, and Wayzata MN 4 times.

Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.



 Last Year's (2012) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals
                                           NXN                   Finish Order at           Last Year's
      School               State  Score  Region                     NXN 2012               Pre-Season Projection
      ------------------   -----  -----  ------            ---------------------------     -----------------------
  1   Southlake Carroll      TX    250    South            1   Arcadia              CA  -  #35+ group
  2   North Central          WA    260    Northwest        2   American Fork        UT  -  #9  pre-season
  3   Christian Brothers     NJ    270    Northeast        3   North Central        WA  -  #2  pre-season
  4   York                   IL    280    Midwest          4   Christian Brothers   NJ  -  #3  pre-season
  5   Davis                  UT    300    Southwest        5   Cardinal O'Hara      PA  -  #35 pre-season
  6   Bismarck               ND    350    Heartland        6   York                 IL  -  #4  pre-season
  7   Carmel                 IN    360    Midwest          7   Kamiakin             WA  -  #35+ group
  8   Seattle Prep           WA    380    Northwest        8   Southlake Carrol     TX  -  #1  pre-season
  9   American Fork          UT    400    Southwest        9   St. Xavier           OH  -  unranked
  10  Central Catholic       OR    410    Northwest        10  Blacksburg           VA  -  unranked
  11  Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    405    New York         11  Carmel               IN  -  #7  pre-season
  12  Stillwater             MN    415    Heartland        12  Saratoga             NY  -  #35+ group
  13  Bishop Hendricken      RI    420    Northeast        13  Davis                UT  -  #5  pre-season
  14  Belvidere North        IL    425    Midwest          14  St. Xavier           KY  -  #29 pre-season
  15  Gig Harbor             WA    430    Northwest        15  W Chester Henderson  PA  -  unranked
  16  Summit                 OR    435    Northwest        16  Fayetteville-Manlius NY  -  #11 pre-season
  17  Cleveland              NM    440    Southwest        17  Bismarck             ND  -  #6  pre-season
  18  Siuslaw                OR    450    Northwest        18  Carlsbad             CA  -  #35+  group
  19  Trabuco Hills          CA    470    California       19  Dowling Catholic     IA  -  #27  pre-season
  20  O'Fallon               IL    480    Midwest          20  California (Whitt)   CA  -  unranked
  21  Mountain Vista         CO    485    Southwest        21  Summit               OR  -  #16 pre-season
  22  Valparaiso             IN    490    Midwest          22  The Woodlands        TX  -  #34 pre-season
  23  Belen Jesuit           FL    495    Southeast
  24  Lawrence Central       IN    500    Midwest
  25  Highland Milford       MI    501    Midwest
  26  Waterford Mott         MI    501    Midwest
  27  Dowling Catholic       IA    510    Heartland
  29  St. Xavier             KY    515    Southeast
  29  St. Anthony's          NY    520    New York
  30  W Windsor-Plainsboro S NJ    525    Northeast
  31  St. John Bosco         CA    530    California
  32  Lexington              SC    535    Southeast
  33  Arlington              NY    540    New York
  34  The Woodlands          TX    550    South
  35  Cardinal O'Hara        PA    560    Northeast