Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below.
I limited the Combined Class list to 26 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2013
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 26 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Saratoga 190 (02-A )
1 St. Anthony's 190 (CHSAA)
1 Liverpool 190 (03-A )
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 190 (03-A )
5 Northport 210 (11-A )
6 Chaminade 240 (CHSAA)
7 West Genesee 270 (03-A )
8 Warwick Valley 300 (09-A )
9t Webster Thomas 310 (05-A )
9t Port Jervis 310 (09-B )
11 Pittsford Mendon 315 (05-B )
12t Collegiate 320 (AIS )
12t Syosset 320 (08-A )
12t Cornwall 320 (09-B )
15 Fordham Prep 325 (CHSAA)
16 Corning 335 (04-A )
17t Lake Shore 360 (06-B )
17t Burnt Hills 360 (02-B )
19 Xavier 390 (CHSAA)
20t Fairport 400 (05-A )
20t Pearl River 400 (01-B )
22 Tappan Zee 410 (01-B )
23 Colonie 420 (02-A )
24 North Rockland 425 (01-A )
25 Irondequoit 430 (05-A )
26 Sachem East 440 (11-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because
I wanted to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
In General ... When all factors were considered (simulated scores from last season and "guesses" for the coming season and prior school history of performance, etc), it was very difficult to separate Saratoga, St. Anthony's, Liverpool and Fayetteville-Manlius, so I'm making them co-favorites entering the 2013 season.
Saratoga ... One Big Caveat - the Saratoga projection excludes Gavin Gaynor who would be a top four scorer for Saratoga (rumor to me said was moving to Ohio and I found some supporting info, but I don't know for certain) ... When Gavin Gaynor is included in the Saratoga score, Saratoga would be 30-40 points in front and the sole solid favorite.
Just like last year, St. Anthony's is returning a large group of runners with decent speed ratings ... For example, seven guys with overall ratings of 160 or higher and at least another five with ratings above 150 ... That's a lot of potential, and I assume a few of those runners will show improvement ... Base on 2012 numbers and depth, St. Anthony's could easily be considered the favorite.
Liverpool is young, talented and improving.
I have Fayetteville-Manlius projected as a possible co-favorite for several reasons ... (1) Fayetteville-Manlius finished 1st or 2nd at the NXN-NY regional in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 (proven results on an annual basis or "been-there-done-that" really does matter) ... (2) FM has been successful at developing "new blood" on both the boys and girls teams, and 2013 will likely continue that tradition.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.