[TullyRunners Home Page]
Pre-Season XC 2012
GIRLS Teams - National 2012
Bill Meylan (July 28, 2012)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2011 XC season into 2012 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2012 race results are what count.
|National GIRLS Teams|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2012 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 90 New York 2 Saratoga NY 265 New York 3 Tatnall DE 270 Southeast 4 Fort Collins CO 275 Southwest 5 New Trier IL 280 Midwest 6 Grosse Pointe South MI 290 Midwest 7 Holy Names NY 310 New York 8 Carmel IN 330 Midwest 9 Simi Valley CA 335 California 10 Monarch CO 340 Southwest 11 Xavier College Prep AZ 350 Southwest 12 Saugus CA 360 California 13 La Costa Canyon CA 365 California 14 Assumption KY 390 Southeast 15 Estero FL 410 Southeast 16 Saline MI 430 Midwest 17 Bozeman MT 440 Northwest 18 Glacier Peak WA 445 Northwest 19 Southlake Carroll TX 450 South 20 Pennsbury PA 460 Northeast 21 Wheaton Warrenville S IL 470 Midwest 22 Davis UT 475 Southwest 23 Vista Del Lago CA 476 California 24 Bronxville NY 480 New York ** assumes Mary Cain runs 25 Dowling Catholic IA 481 Heartland 26 Neenah WI 482 Heartland 27 Aptos CA 490 California 28 San Clemente CA 491 California 29 Great Oak CA 495 California 30 Burnt Hills NY 500 New York The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled somewhat: Coeur D' Alene ID Northwest South Eugene OR Northwest Lake Park IL Midwest St. Francis CA California San Lorenzo Valley CA California Greenwich NY New York Midlothian VA Southeast Dallas Highland Park TX South Ogden UT Southwest Lee's Summit West MO Midwest Ventura CA California Tesoro CA California Voorhees NJ Northeast Palos Verdes CA California Green Hope NC Southeast North Shore NY New York Mountain Vista CO Southwest Redondo Union CA California Shakopee MN Heartland Garden City NY New York Unionville PA Northeast Prospect IL Midwest Los Alamos NM Southwest Lewisville Flower Mound TX South Glenbard West IL Midwest Tahoma WA Northwest Champlain Valley VT Northeast Lakeville South MN Heartland Rancho Buena Vista CA California Barrington RI Northeast Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest Camas WA Northwest *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2011 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Hopefully, the girl's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2012 XC season in a reasonable order ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2011 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2011 are shown in a table below... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2011, I did not identify 4 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... The top 13 teams at NXN teams were all ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams, and 9 of the top 13 at NXN were ranked in my pre-season top 13.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Fayetteville-Manlius ... FM returns 6 of their 7 NXN runners from last year's winning team ... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team preview, and detailed info on the top 7 runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls preview ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on pre-season favorite to win NXN once again.
Saratoga ... Info on the Saratoga girls is available from my NY Pre-season Team preview and Top NY Girls preview ... Saratoga gets my "benefit-of-the-doubt" for a #2 ranking because of their success at NXN ... Three of their top four runners return from last year's team that finished 2nd at NXN and they were 98 points in front of the 3rd place Tatnall ... As a quick remainder of success at NXN over the years, here are the Saratoga girl's finishes at Portland Meadows:
. NXN 2011 - 2nd
..... I have a bias for teams with proven ability in the past ... 13 teams in this year's pre-season top 30 competed at NXN Nationals last year, and the only Northeast team included in the top 30 (Pennsbury) did not compete at the NXN regional last year (where they might have been favored, and that could happen again).
Tatnall DE, Fort Collins CO, New Trier IL and Saratoga ... These teams are effectively even-up by the raw numbers.
Grosse Pointe South Michigan ... I typically exclude teams not eligible for NXN, but Michigan has some really good runners, so I included Grosse Pointe South and Saline for reference ... Grosse Pointe South is a very good team, and it is a shame they are not eligible for NXN ... Since they cannot compete head-to-head with the other teams at NXN Midwest or Nationals, it makes end-of-the-year comparisons a bit problematic ... Results from NXN Portland Meadows is the defining end-of-the-year comparison (like it or not).
Holy Names Academy (or more correctly, Academy of the Holy Names in Albany, NY) ... Holy Names is ranked highly because they got a top transfer from Saratoga (Estela Smith) and their talented group of runners performed very nicely during track (so I'm "guessing" they will perform well at XC) ... More info is available from my NY Pre-season Team preview and Top NY Girls preview.
Simi Valley CA ... lost some good runners to graduation, but Simi Valley has Sarah Baxter who will be the top-rated individual in the nation (followed by Erin Finn from Michigan) ... starting a team score with a very low number is really helpful.
Southlake Carroll TX ... I did some guessing here due to graduations ... Southlake Carroll always seems to reload, so I placed them in the top 20, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do better.
Once again, I have a fair number of California teams in the lists above ... But this is the pre-season and much of my "rating" of the California teams is based on what they accomplished in California, and I feel reasonably comfortable with my California ratings of past seasons ... I do not (and never have) used NXN Portland Meadows ratings to "back-calculate" California ratings based on performance at Portland Meadows ... California-based racing and Portland Meadows in December are two different animals and must be rated accordingly.
Other New York Teams ... Both Bronxville and Burnt Hills are included in the top 30 ... Bronxville's score includes Mary Cain (and she might or might not be running for the team, to-be-determined).
|Last Year's (2011) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2011 Pre-Season Projection ------------------ ----- ----- ---------- --------------------------- --------------------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 60 New York 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #1 pre-season 2 Saratoga NY 190 New York 2 Saratoga NY - #2 pre-season 3 Tatnall DE 260 Southeast 3 Tatnall DE - #3-6 pre-season 3 Saugus CA 260 California 4 New Trier IL - #14 pre-season 3 North Shore NY 260 New York 5 Carmel IN - #7-8 pre-season 3 La Costa Canyon CA 260 California 6 Fort Collins CO - #7-8 pre-season 7 Carmel IN 300 Midwest 7 Southlake Carroll TX - #23-24 pre-season 7 Fort Collins CO 300 Southwest 8 Xavier College Prep AZ - #25-30 pre-season 9 Great Oak CA 325 California 9 North Shore NY - #3-6 pre-season 10 Wheaton-Warrenville S IL 330 Midwest 10 Redondo Beach CA - #13 pre-season 11 Green Hope NC 355 Southeast 11 Simi Valley CA - #22 pre-season 12 Foothill CA 375 California 12 Saugus CA - #3-6 pre-season 13 Redondo Union CA 390 California 13 La Costa Canyon CA - #3-6 pre-season 14 New Tier IL 415 Midwest 14 Neenah WI - unranked 14 Granada CA 415 California 15 Summit OR - #30+ group pre-season 14 Ogden UT 415 Southwest 16 Glacier Peak WA - #14-18 pre-season 14 Campolindo CA 415 California 17 Humble Kingwood TX - #25-30 pre-season 14 Glacier Peak WA 415 Northwest 18 Assumption KY - unranked 19 Burnt Hills NY 420 New York 19 Midlothian VA - #30+ group pre-season 20 Pennsbury PA 425 Northeast 20 Monticello MN - unranked 21 Prospect IL 435 Midwest 21 Champlain Valley VT - #30+ group pre-season 22 Simi Valley CA 445 California 22 Hamilton-Wenham MA - unranked 23 Bozeman MT 460 Northwest 23 Southlake Carroll TX 460 South 25 Voorhees NJ 470 Northeast 25 Kingwood TX 470 South 25 The Woodlands TX 470 South 25 Xavier Prep AZ 470 Southwest 25 Woodbridge CA 470 California