My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2011 XC season into 2012 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2012 race results are what count.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2012
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 90 New York
2 Saratoga NY 265 New York
3 Tatnall DE 270 Southeast
4 Fort Collins CO 275 Southwest
5 New Trier IL 280 Midwest
6 Grosse Pointe South MI 290 Midwest
7 Holy Names NY 310 New York
8 Carmel IN 330 Midwest
9 Simi Valley CA 335 California
10 Monarch CO 340 Southwest
11 Xavier College Prep AZ 350 Southwest
12 Saugus CA 360 California
13 La Costa Canyon CA 365 California
14 Assumption KY 390 Southeast
15 Estero FL 410 Southeast
16 Saline MI 430 Midwest
17 Bozeman MT 440 Northwest
18 Glacier Peak WA 445 Northwest
19 Southlake Carroll TX 450 South
20 Pennsbury PA 460 Northeast
21 Wheaton Warrenville S IL 470 Midwest
22 Davis UT 475 Southwest
23 Vista Del Lago CA 476 California
24 Bronxville NY 480 New York ** assumes Mary Cain runs
25 Dowling Catholic IA 481 Heartland
26 Neenah WI 482 Heartland
27 Aptos CA 490 California
28 San Clemente CA 491 California
29 Great Oak CA 495 California
30 Burnt Hills NY 500 New York
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled somewhat:
Coeur D' Alene ID Northwest
South Eugene OR Northwest
Lake Park IL Midwest
St. Francis CA California
San Lorenzo Valley CA California
Greenwich NY New York
Midlothian VA Southeast
Dallas Highland Park TX South
Ogden UT Southwest
Lee's Summit West MO Midwest
Ventura CA California
Tesoro CA California
Voorhees NJ Northeast
Palos Verdes CA California
Green Hope NC Southeast
North Shore NY New York
Mountain Vista CO Southwest
Redondo Union CA California
Shakopee MN Heartland
Garden City NY New York
Unionville PA Northeast
Prospect IL Midwest
Los Alamos NM Southwest
Lewisville Flower Mound TX South
Glenbard West IL Midwest
Tahoma WA Northwest
Champlain Valley VT Northeast
Lakeville South MN Heartland
Rancho Buena Vista CA California
Barrington RI Northeast
Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest
Camas WA Northwest
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2011 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season
).
.