My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2011 XC season into 2012 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 35 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 35 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2012 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing - hopefully informed guessing, but
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess
.
Updated Aug 3, 2012 ... Cardinal O'Hara PA dropped from 9th to 35th (one of their graduating seniors was mistakenly included in this team since he was listed as a junior in the PA State meet 2011).
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2012
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Southlake Carroll TX 250 South
2 North Central WA 260 Northwest
3 Christian Brothers NJ 270 Northeast
4 York IL 280 Midwest
5 Davis UT 300 Southwest
6 Bismarck ND 350 Heartland
7 Carmel IN 360 Midwest
8 Seattle Prep WA 380 Northwest
9 American Fork UT 400 Southwest
10 Central Catholic OR 410 Northwest
11 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 405 New York
12 Stillwater MN 415 Heartland
13 Bishop Hendricken RI 420 Northeast
14 Belvidere North IL 425 Midwest
15 Gig Harbor WA 430 Northwest
16 Summit OR 435 Northwest
17 Cleveland NM 440 Southwest
18 Siuslaw OR 450 Northwest
19 Trabuco Hills CA 470 California
20 O'Fallon IL 480 Midwest
21 Mountain Vista CO 485 Southwest
22 Valparaiso IN 490 Midwest
23 Belen Jesuit FL 495 Southeast
24 Lawrence Central IN 500 Midwest
25 Highland Milford MI 501 Midwest
26 Waterford Mott MI 501 Midwest
27 Dowling Catholic IA 510 Heartland
29 St. Xavier KY 515 Southeast
29 St. Anthony's NY 520 New York
30 W Windsor-Plainsboro S NJ 525 Northeast
31 St. John Bosco CA 530 California
32 Lexington SC 535 Southeast
33 Arlington NY 540 New York
34 The Woodlands TX 550 South
35 Cardinal O'Hara PA 560 Northeast (dropped as noted above)
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well
Fairview CO Southwest
Arcadia CA California
Saratoga NY New York
Northport NY New York
Mt Spokane WA Northwest
Ogden UT Southwest
Arrowhead WI Heartland
Carlsbad CA California
Rancho Cucamonga CA California
Carlmont CA California
Colonial FL Southeast
Edina MN Heartland
Brentwood TN Southeast
Mt. Carmel CA California
Jesuit OR Northwest
Mountain View UT Southwest
Herriman UT Southwest
Wayzata MN Heartland
Eisenhower WA Northwest
Eden Prairie MN Heartland
Severna Park MD Southeast
Kamiakin WA Northwest
Pembroke MA Northeast
Hereford MD Southeast
Columbus North IN Midwest
Columbus (Miami) FL Southeast
Bishop Feehan MA Northeast
Rocky Mountain ID Northwest
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally less accurate and harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate making the following season less predictable due to lack of information.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of
the top teams entering the 2012 XC season in a reasonable order ... If
it does, I made some decent guesses
... As a point of reference for last year, my 2011 pre-season
projections with corresponding results from NXN 2011 are
shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at
NXN 2011, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 35
teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 15 of the 22 NXN teams
were ranked in my pre-season top 35 teams ... I did
better with my girl's pre-season rankings (9 of the top 13 girl's teams
at NXN were ranked in my pre-season top 13).
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Southlake Carroll TX gets a slight advantage over North Central WA, Christian Brothers NJ and York IL ... Davis UT is close.
The top four teams in my projections finished 2nd, 7th, 1st and 3rd at NXN last year ... In addition, 7 other teams in my top 35 competed at NXN Nationals last year.
I know this will surprise some people ... I
have three New York teams in the top 35,,
(Fayetteville-Manlius (#12), St.Anthony's (#30) and
Arlington (#34), plus Saratoga and Northport are near
the top of the "extra team" list ...... Fayetteville-Manlius gets
this respect because of prior success at NXN ... In the last four years
(2011-2008), the Fayetteville-Manlius guys finished 12th, 2nd,
9th and 16th, respectively, at NXN Portland Meadows, and this coming
year, FM's top runner (Nick Ryan) is one the top runners
in the nation meaning FM's team score starts out with a
very low number ... More info is available from my
NY Pre-season Boys Team preview
and Top NY Boys preview.
The other New York teams scored well in my projections ... one reason could be that I have more data on the NY teams which could show a "data bias" (more data to find good results) ... But relative scoring has two components, (1) "How good is my team??" and (2) "How good is everybody else??" ... Where any individual team ranks depends on how good the other teams seem to be.
The two Michigan teams in my top 35 is something new ... I typically exclude teams not eligible for NXN, but Michigan has some really good runners, so I included them for reference ... To this outsider, both teams have positives and are close in scoring to each other against the top 30 teams, so I rated them even-up as a "guess".
I assume list order will change a lot when the season actually starts ... Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.