[TullyRunners Home Page]
Pre-Season XC 2012
BOYS Teams - National 2012
Bill Meylan (July 28, 2012)
|Boys - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2011 XC season into 2012 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 35 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 35 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2012 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - hopefully informed guessing, but occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess.
Updated Aug 3, 2012 ... Cardinal O'Hara PA dropped from 9th to 35th (one of their graduating seniors was mistakenly included in this team since he was listed as a junior in the PA State meet 2011).
|Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2012|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2012 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Southlake Carroll TX 250 South 2 North Central WA 260 Northwest 3 Christian Brothers NJ 270 Northeast 4 York IL 280 Midwest 5 Davis UT 300 Southwest 6 Bismarck ND 350 Heartland 7 Carmel IN 360 Midwest 8 Seattle Prep WA 380 Northwest 9 American Fork UT 400 Southwest 10 Central Catholic OR 410 Northwest 11 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 405 New York 12 Stillwater MN 415 Heartland 13 Bishop Hendricken RI 420 Northeast 14 Belvidere North IL 425 Midwest 15 Gig Harbor WA 430 Northwest 16 Summit OR 435 Northwest 17 Cleveland NM 440 Southwest 18 Siuslaw OR 450 Northwest 19 Trabuco Hills CA 470 California 20 O'Fallon IL 480 Midwest 21 Mountain Vista CO 485 Southwest 22 Valparaiso IN 490 Midwest 23 Belen Jesuit FL 495 Southeast 24 Lawrence Central IN 500 Midwest 25 Highland Milford MI 501 Midwest 26 Waterford Mott MI 501 Midwest 27 Dowling Catholic IA 510 Heartland 29 St. Xavier KY 515 Southeast 29 St. Anthony's NY 520 New York 30 W Windsor-Plainsboro S NJ 525 Northeast 31 St. John Bosco CA 530 California 32 Lexington SC 535 Southeast 33 Arlington NY 540 New York 34 The Woodlands TX 550 South 35 Cardinal O'Hara PA 560 Northeast (dropped as noted above) The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well Fairview CO Southwest Arcadia CA California Saratoga NY New York Northport NY New York Mt Spokane WA Northwest Ogden UT Southwest Arrowhead WI Heartland Carlsbad CA California Rancho Cucamonga CA California Carlmont CA California Colonial FL Southeast Edina MN Heartland Brentwood TN Southeast Mt. Carmel CA California Jesuit OR Northwest Mountain View UT Southwest Herriman UT Southwest Wayzata MN Heartland Eisenhower WA Northwest Eden Prairie MN Heartland Severna Park MD Southeast Kamiakin WA Northwest Pembroke MA Northeast Hereford MD Southeast Columbus North IN Midwest Columbus (Miami) FL Southeast Bishop Feehan MA Northeast Rocky Mountain ID Northwest *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2011 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally less accurate and harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate making the following season less predictable due to lack of information.
Hopefully, the boy's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2012 XC season in a reasonable order ... If it does, I made some decent guesses ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2011 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2011 are shown in a table below ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2011, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 35 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 15 of the 22 NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 35 teams ... I did better with my girl's pre-season rankings (9 of the top 13 girl's teams at NXN were ranked in my pre-season top 13).
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Southlake Carroll TX gets a slight advantage over North Central WA, Christian Brothers NJ and York IL ... Davis UT is close.
The top four teams in my projections finished 2nd, 7th, 1st and 3rd at NXN last year ... In addition, 7 other teams in my top 35 competed at NXN Nationals last year.
I know this will surprise some people ... I have three New York teams in the top 35,, (Fayetteville-Manlius (#12), St.Anthony's (#30) and Arlington (#34), plus Saratoga and Northport are near the top of the "extra team" list ...... Fayetteville-Manlius gets this respect because of prior success at NXN ... In the last four years (2011-2008), the Fayetteville-Manlius guys finished 12th, 2nd, 9th and 16th, respectively, at NXN Portland Meadows, and this coming year, FM's top runner (Nick Ryan) is one the top runners in the nation meaning FM's team score starts out with a very low number ... More info is available from my NY Pre-season Boys Team preview and Top NY Boys preview.
The other New York teams scored well in my projections ... one reason could be that I have more data on the NY teams which could show a "data bias" (more data to find good results) ... But relative scoring has two components, (1) "How good is my team??" and (2) "How good is everybody else??" ... Where any individual team ranks depends on how good the other teams seem to be.
The two Michigan teams in my top 35 is something new ... I typically exclude teams not eligible for NXN, but Michigan has some really good runners, so I included them for reference ... To this outsider, both teams have positives and are close in scoring to each other against the top 30 teams, so I rated them even-up as a "guess".
I assume list order will change a lot when the season actually starts ... Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion.
|Last Year's (2011) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2011 Pre-Season Projection ------------------ ----- ----- ------ --------------------------- ----------------------- 1 Southlake Carroll TX 270 South 1 Christian Brothers NJ - #6-7 pre-season 2 Palos Verdes CA 275 California 2 Southlake Carroll TX - #1 pre-season 3 Arcadia CA 280 California 3 Davis UT - #18 pre-season 4 Shaker NY 285 New York 4 Arcadia CA - #3 pre-season 5 Rancho Cucamonga CA 290 California 5 Palatine IL - #12-13 pre-season 6 Fort Collins CO 300 Southwest 6 American Fork UT - unranked (insufficent data) 6 Christian Brothers NJ 300 Northeast 7 North Central WA - #20-21 pre-season 8 Columbus North IN 325 Midwest 8 Arrowhead WI - #17 pre-season 9 The Woodlands TX 335 South 9 Columbus North IN - #8 pre-season 10 Buchanan CA 340 California 10 Stillwater MN - unranked 11 St. John Bosco CA 350 California 11 Golden Valley CA - #15 pre-season 12 Palatine IL 360 Midwest 12 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #25 pre-season 12 Belvidere (North) IL 360 Midwest 13 York IL - #20-22 pre-season 14 Rush-Henrietta NY 375 New York 14 Trabuco Hills CA - unranked 15 Golden Valley CA 390 California 15 Gig Harbor WA - #35+ group 16 WW Plainsboro So NJ 390 Northeast 16 Shaker NY - #4 pre-season 17 Arrowhead WI 395 Heartland 17 Brentwood TN - unranked 18 Davis UT 400 Southwest 18 Pembroke MA - unranked 19 Loyola CA 405 California 19 Rancho Cucamonga CA - #5 pre-season 20 North Central WA 410 Northwest 20 Belen Jesuit FL - #29-30 pre-season 20 York IL 410 Midwest 21 The Woodlands TX - #9 pre-season 20 Neuqua Valley IL 410 Midwest 22 Westfield NJ - unranked 23 Crater OR 415 Northwest 24 Adolfo Camarillo CA 430 California 25 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 435 New York 26 North Harrison IN 440 Midwest 26 La Costa Canyon CA 440 California 28 Cabdell Midland WV 445 Southeast 29 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 465 Southeast 29 Wayzata MN 465 Heartland 31 Dowling Catholic IA 475 Heartland 31 West Torrance CA 475 California 31 Hamilton Southeastern IN 475 Midwest 31 Great Oak CA 475 California