Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2011 XC season into 2012 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... I ignored last year's modified runners.

Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary  ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3200m, 1600m  and Steeplechase.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class (because some people are interested) ... A lot can change between mid-July and November.

                  Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2012

         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 21 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------

    1    Fayetteville-Manlius    155     (03-A )
    2    St. Anthony's           160     (CHSAA)
    3    Arlington               170     (01-A )
    4    Saratoga                180     (02-A )
    5    Northport               190     (11-A )
    6    Collegiate              250     (AIS  )
    7    Monsignor Farrell       260     (CHSAA)
    8    East Aurora             280     (06-B )
    8    Pittsford Mendon        280     (05-B )
    8    Franklin Academy        280     (10-B )
    11   Walt Whitman            300     (11-A )
    12   Chaminade               300     (CHSAA)
    13   Warwick Valley          310     (09-A )
    14   Shaker                  320     (02-A )
    14   Rush-Henrietta          320     (05-A )
    14   Baldwinsville           320     (03-A )
    14   Webster Thomas          320     (05-A )
    14   Cicero-North Syracuse   320     (03-A )
    19   Brighton                340     (05-B )
    20   Bronx HS Science        345     (PSAL )
    21   North Rockland          350     (01-A )

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2011 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I wanted to).

In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the slight favorite entering the 2012 XC season followed close by St. Anthony's, Arlington, Saratoga and Northport.

Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.

I have Fayetteville-Manlius as the top projected team for several reasons ... (1) Nick Ryan will start the team scoring with a very low number (probably 1) ... (2) Fayetteville-Manlius  finished 1st or 2nd at the NXN-NY regional in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (proven results on an annual basis or "been-there-done-that" really does matter) ... (3) FM has been successful at developing "new blood" on both the boys and girls teams, and 2012 will likely continue that tradition.

I have St. Anthony's close behind and consider St. Anthony's to be a serious challenger for the top spot ... St. Anthony's is returning a "bunch of runners" with decent speed ratings from 2011 ... For example, six guys with overall ratings of 160 or higher and another six to ten with ratings above 150 ... That's a lot of potential, and I assume a few of those runners will show significant improvement ... Where that ends up at the end of the season remains to be seen, but the prospects seem promising.

Arlington also looks good along with Saratoga and Northport ... more on them below.

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Fayetteville-Manlius    130      (03-A )
   Arlington               140      (01-A )
   Saratoga                150      (02-A )
   Northport               160      (11-A )
   Walt Whitman            250      (11-A )
   Shaker                  250      (02-A )
   Warwick Valley          250      (09-A )
   Webster Thomas          250      (05-A )
   Cicero-North Syracuse   250      (03-A )
   Baldwinsville           250      (03-A )
   Rush-Henrietta          250      (05-A )
   North Rockland          300      (01-A )
   Calhoun                 310      (08-A )
   Ward Melville           315      (11-A )
   North Babylon           320      (11-A )
   Syosset                 330      (08-A )
   McQuaid                 345      (05-A )
   Port Washington         355      (08-A )
   Liverpool               360      (03-A )
   Fairport                360      (05-A )
   Irondequoit             360      (05-A )

Fayetteville-Manlius won States last year by one point over Rush-Henrietta with Shaker 3rd and Arlington 4th ... Rush-Henrietta and Shaker each graduated 4 runners from their 5 team scorers, while Fayetteville-Manlius and Arlington graduated only two scorers ..... Just looking at the numbers, Fayetteville-Manlius enters the fall season with four runners having overall speed ratings of roughly 170 or higher ... Nick Ryan is the top-rated runner in the State ... Bryce Millar (a freshman last year) had early season ratings of 175-177, so an improvement into the 180s is certainly possible ... The obvious question is "strength at the #5 position, but I'm "guessing" Coach Bill Aris will develop some ability at the #5 and #6 positions ... As noted above, Fayetteville-Manlius  finished 1st or 2nd at the NXN-NY regional in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, plus Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending State champion.

Arlington has 5 guys with overall speed ratings of 160 or higher, plus a top-rated runner in Sebastion Hanson ... and that achieves a good pre-season projection.

Saratoga enters the season with some promising prospects ... Just speculation on my part, but several runners "seem" poised to make significant improvements ... Remember, pre-season is a "guessing game" to a certain degree, and that makes it interesting.

Northport is an interesting team for pre-season evaluation ... If demonstrated ability on the track was the only criteria for pre-season projection, then Northport would be on top ... But as noted in the past, I believe proven ability in cross country (both individually and as a team) is the prime criteria for evaluating cross country ... Track times are useful in noting "potential" improvement in XC, and Northport has a lot of potential in this regard ... For example, Tim McGowan and James Dickinson have very good 1600m and 3200m times in track which suggest much improved XC performances (especially the 3200m times).

The question concerning Northport is "How much credit to give for their really good track performances??" ... In combination with 2011 XC results, this makes Northport a "guessing game" ... Northport finished only 14th at the NXN-NY regional qualifier and only 17th at Federations (all runners are returning) ... Those XC performances are not good omens for projecting a State champion ... Conversely, the track performances "might" suggest a potential State Champion ... So some sort of a middle ground seems appropriate for pre-season projection ... Placing Northport 4th behind the top three teams reflects 2011 results from XC ... the close projected teams scores reflect potential for the coming season, and the real possibility of challenging for the NY State title.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep    XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                              ----     ----    -----    ---------  -------------------------------------------
Fayetteville-Manlius
  Nick Ryan             12    9:03     4:05    1:55(800)   195     194 191 196 199 185 185
  Bryce Millar          10    9:41     4:21    1:59(800)   171     162 153 175 176 176 177
  Colin Fitzgibbons     12    9:42     4:31    10:15       170     166 169 156 177 171 160 173
  Conor Farrell         12   10:17      --     2:01(800)   169     166 168 159 173 175 170 170
  Konrad Niemiec        11     --       --      --         146     147 142 144 138
  Andrew Berge          11   10:41     4:54    10:45       145     144 147 134
  Charlie Beeler        12     --       --     2:00(800)   142     138 144 130

Arlington
  Sebastion Hanson      12    9:06     4:15     --         182     183 182 182 180 181 177 177 178 174
  Aaron Ryley           12    9:50      --      --         172     171 171 176 168 168 165 168 169 164
  Steve Morrison        11     --      4:38    2:00(800)   162     152 162 160 158 152 165 163 168 165
  Corey Chiavelli       11     --      4:33     --         160     150 154 162 170 166 160 164 159 152
  Chris Koenitzer       12     --      4:26r   1:53(800r)  160     152 158 162 163 157 155 160 160
  Tim Burger            12   10:31      --     10:13       154     157 151 146 146
  Nick Netto            12     --       --       --        154     156 148 144 155 154
  Tom Wimmers           11     --       --     2:01(800)   149     149 149
  Louis Castellani      12   10:21     4:41     --         138     141 121 141 137 135

Saratoga
  Brent Freestone       11   10:00     4:45    10:00       175     178 170 172 171 165 167
  Jay Navin             11    9:43     4:25    1:55(800)   169     169 168 167 169 170
  Brian Halligan        12     --       --      --         165     166 165 164 152 161
  Travis Briggs         12     --      4:30    1:59(800)   161     149 165 161 158 153
  Gavin Gaynor          9    10:09     4:39     --         159     161 150
  Evan Quinones         12   10:05      --      --         156     154 153 156 161
  Andrew Maguire        12     --      4:53     --         152     152 152
  Joe Verro             11     --      4:40     --         146     139 146 147 147
  Aidan Tooker          9    10:13      --      --         139+    139

Northport
  Tim McGowan           11    9:26     4:20     --         169+    171 167 163 164 156 158
  James Dickinson       12    9:20     4:19     --         164+    146 168 167 164 167 166 150 156
  Mike Branigan         10     --      4:19     --         163+    145 160 159 178 166 156 173 170
  Alex Kramer           12    9:51     4:31    10:05       153+    143 139 163 149 152 154 149 151
  David Hatch           12     --      4:28    2:01(800)   153     149 153 154 156 152 150 151 146
  Colin Kern            12   10:20     4:41    10:20       153     146 150 156 147 140 157 148 152
  Chris Odin            12     --      4:19     --         151+    144 140 148 163 159 155 127
  Justin Leopold        11   10:00     4:46     --         150     148 151
  Tim Foley             12     --       --      --         150     150 147 149
  RJ Acosta             12     --      4:55     --         141     141
  Devin Sullivan        12     --       --     2:04(800)   140     132 143
  Nick Termine          12   10:05     4:45     --         139     112 148

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Walt Whitman
  Zachary Cammer        12    176     176 175 175 178 177 175
  Michael Damato        12    174     165 177 173 173 176 173
  James Vallar          12    160     158 153 159 159 166
  Brian Windisch        12    149     142 141 147 153 159 149
  Josh Roiland          10    143     143
  Ryan Gioe             11    142     142

Shaker
  Adam Schwenzfeier     12    166     161 164 164 168 171 169 172 159 168 171 164 162
  Max Morgan            12    159     151 155 157 156 161 167 165 168 159 155 163 163
  John O'Connor         12    158     160 154 157 157 151 146 145 142
  Caleb Mellon          12    154     155 149 155
  Kaushik Pilar         10    152     152 149
  Dan Ruiz              12    139     130 140 142 137 127

Warwick Valley
  Grant Parrelli        12    173     170 174 174 171 179 165 166 160 170
  Aaron Peterson        12    172     173 165 171 166 170 169 171 176 174
  Dan Peterson          10    153     138 146 159 153 155 153
  Jordan Burton         11    151     151 151 145 143 152 145
  Tanner Senius         10    150     130 152 155 150 150 145
  Jared Olson           12    149     147 140 150 153 149
  Michael Fox           12    148     148
  Todd Uckermark        11    145     133 147 146

Webster Thomas
  Sasha Andrievsky      12    166     162 168 164 153 160
  Josh Goldstein        11    163     162 165 154 160
  Keith Johnson         11    160     158 163 156 154
  Chris Peffley         11    153     149 153 152 156
  Mitchell Baller       12    147     147 147 148 145
  Ben Whitman           11    144     144 145 141
  Kevin Witt            11    143     140 139 146

Cicero-North Syracuse
  Neil Gill             12    163     147 167 162 167 160 166 162 164 164 155
  Anthony Lupia         12    161+    99 167 168 167 172 172 170 170 166
  Colin Greenseich      11    156     153 160 154 147 149 155 144 142 143
  Bryan Junod           11    154     144 153 157 149 160 152 151 151
  Kevin Cialfi          12    151     151 154 148 145 148 142 140 116
  Matt Crough           12    150     145 154 134 150 146 152 149 144 148
  Paul Degennaro        11    149     137 149 152 152 150 153 143 127 141

Baldwinsville
  Alec Peinkofer        12    181     178 184 174 179 174 178 180 181 178
  Andy Fleming          12    163     162 159 147 170 162 168 166
  Josh Perez            11    160     150 161 160 165 153 163 161
  Jack Martin           11    150     149 154 146 145 143 136 127
  Casey McAllister      12    141     140 140 144 135 125 112
  Antonio Martinez      12    140     143 138 134 124 122 101
  Nate Wicks            12    139     131 141 139 140 143 132 129

Rush-Henrietta
  Mickey Burke          11    182     178 185 179 179 177 178 166 176
  Brennan Root          12    165     165 165 165 165 162 161 158 155
  Mike Schantz          12    157     161 147 153 151 155 153 153 153
  Pat Shenal            12    148     145 149 146
  Michael Larkin        12    146     147 145 146 144
  Tyler Gerhardt        12    143     131 148 138 135

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   East Aurora             170      (06-B )
   Pittsford Mendon        170      (05-B )
   Franklin Academy        170      (10-B )
   Brighton                200      (05-B )
   Honeoye Falls-Lima      210      (05-B )
   Bishop Gibbons          210      (02-B )
   Starpoint               210      (06-B )
   Burnt Hills             230      (02-B )
   Shoreham-Wading River   235      (11-B )
   Bayport-Blue Pt         275      (11-B )
   Queensbury              275      (02-B )
   Maine-Endwell           275      (04-B )
   Port Jervis             280      (09-B )
   Pearl River             290      (01-B )
   New Paltz               290      (09-B )
   Tappan Zee              290      (01-B )
   Eastport-South Manor    300      (11-B )
   Lake Shore              310      (06-B )
   Garden City             320      (08-B )
   North Shore             330      (08-B ) 

Class B could be fairly close in 2012 ... So I'm projecting three co-favorites entering the season ... That's what I do when I don't know.

East Aurora was the Class B champion in both 2011 and 2010 ... That alone gets East Aurora extra consideration since they look competitive again ... East Aurora returns 3 of their top 4 from States, they they typically develop new talent every year ... That combined with good ratings for their top three runners makes East Aurora a co-favorite.

Franklin Academy (Malone) was 3rd at States last year, and they return their top 4 scorers from States ... That's a good start for a high ranking ... I expect some improvement at the #5 position, and that lifts Franklin Academy to a co-favorite position.

Pittsford-Mendon would be the slight favorite based on numbers alone ... At Section 5 sectionals last year, Pittsford-Mendon finished a close 2nd to Honeoye Falls-Lima with Brighton only 1 point further behind ... Pittsford-Mendon returns four scorers from that race (both Honeoye Falls-Lima and Brighton were hit a bit harder by graduation giving Mendon a slight advantage) ... I expect these three teams will have a good competition within Section 5 ... I'm making Pittsford-Mendon a co-favorite (rather than the favorite) in the pre-season because both East Aurora and Franklin Academy raced decently at States and Federations last year, and I give credit to proven experience.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep    XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                              ----     ----    -----    ---------  -------------------------------------------
Pittsford-Mendon
  Jack Wesley           11    9:25     4:20    1:56(800)   171     171 171 171 169 168
  Matt VanVleck         12   10:04      --     10:22       160     152 149 163 168
  Connor Green          11     --       --      --         160     159 160 157 163
  Rob Young             12   10:01     4:37     --         158     160 154 155 148
  David Azzara          10   10:35      --     11:03       148     146 149 148
  Anthony Demme         12     --       --       --        145     145 146
  Kevin Dooley          10     --       --       --        144     144
  Tommy Barbaccia       11     --      4:54      --        141     136 143
  Evan Feigal           10   10:31      --       --        140     135 142

East Aurora
  Sean Phillips         12    9:29     4:27      --        174     175 172 176 176 175 166 176 169 170 166 165
  Gene Baritot          12   10:01     4:45     9:43       170     171 169 170 172 168 164 168 164 166 159 152
  Brendan Keany         12     --       --      2:01(800)  166     163 170 165 169 168 143 164 157 161 150 149
  Aubrey McLaughlin     11     --       --       --        142     142
  Corey Hensen          12     --      4:54      --        140     135 143 137 143 138 141 136 137
  Robby Coulter         12     --       --       --        140     134 142 135 138 142 137
  Matt McLaughlin       9     10:22    4:45      --        139     129 132 131 138 155 147 144

Franklin Academy
  Conor Gordon          12     9:27    4:20      --        170     170 163 171 173 175 168 170
  Corey Lamere          12      --     4:39     9:53       166     168 160 164 167 164 161 164
  Morgan Marlow         12     9:51    4:22      --        164     161 159 167 162 164 158 167
  Rourk Marlow          12      --     4:44     2:03(800)  159     151 160 157 154 158 165 159
  Marcus Garrow         10    10:45    5:05      --        137     130 139 139 136 130 133 130
  Mike Haas             12      --     5:02     11:17      135     132 128 139 130 135 134 139
  Bach Schanck          11      --      --      11:55      130     130 130 114
  
  
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Brighton
  Andrew Mullen         12    168     159 164 174 160 167
  Will Ronchetti        12    167     148 171 167 166 173 154 164 159 167
  Zachary Simpson       11    157     157 148 163 139 148 152
  Neil Ryan             12    147     144 147 150 121 127 143 150 147 146
  Sammy Coons           12    146     146 147 140 131 146
  Justin Koch           12    137     123 141

Bishop Gibbons
  Jason Lange           12    178     178 177 180 179 177 173 177 176 160 161 162
  Matt Lange            12    170     152 172 172 179 171 172 166 162 170 170
  Jordan Pantalone      12    169     157 158 172 170 176 171 176 172 178 170
  Nick Przekurat        12    141     125 146 141 128 146 145 121 128 118
  Steve Dixon           12    129     100 136 129 119 121 128 126 125
  Lucas Chico           12    107     82 112 103

Starpoint
  Paul Swartz           12    162     153 166 158 159 159 161 167 162
  Matt Prohaska         12    161     152 165 152 155 157 159 158 160
  Carl Daigler          11    154     156 151 148 148 153 154 157
  Jordan Roseland       12    151     154 107 153 156 161 161 158 156
  Ian Emerick           10    145     148 134 145 140 141 141
  Adam Yacos            12    139     142 133 119 138 141 139
  Justin Geber          12    129     124 132 126

Honeoye Falls-Lima
  JT Paganelli          12    167     164 170 164 169 162 161 167 157
  Langton Douglas       12    158     144 161 155 150 159 162 158
  Patrick Leo           12    154     151 152 157 157 152 144 153 152
  John Lawlor           12    147     137 150 145 154 143 137 146 133
  Cole Mathews          12    146     137 143 149 145 141 150 148 151
  Tyler Urckfitz        11    139     137 140
  
		

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Pawling                 135      (01-C )
   Fonda Fultonville       140      (02-C )
   Solvay                  150      (03-C )
   Rhinebeck               150      (09-C )
   Tully                   155      (03-C )
   Hannibal                160      (03-C )
   Wayland-Cohocton        160      (05-C )
   Beekmantown             165      (07-C )
   Holland Patent          170      (03-C )
   Addison                 180      (05-C )
   Ilion                   200      (03-C )
   Broadalbin-Perth        200      (02-C )
   Friends                 220      (08-C )
   Saranac                 230      (07-C ) 

Pawling becomes the favorite for this reason ... Pawling was 2nd at States last year (lost to Holland Patent by only two points), and they return 4 of their top 5 from States including their top two ... That alone gets Pawling ranked quite high in Class C entering XC 2012 ... Not sure who their #5 runner might be, but one of their track guys looks promising (if he runs XC) ... Pawling gets my "benefit-of-the-doubt" (in finding a #5 scorer) and becomes the Class C favorite.

Fonda-Fultonville was 3rd at States last year (only 3 points behind Pawling), and Fonda-Fultonville loses only their #2 runner from States ... Again, that alone gets them ranked decently entering this season.

Rhinebeck was 4th at States last year, and graduated 3 of their top 5 (but had some depth) ... Solvay looks close based on speed ratings with Tully and a bunch of teams not far behind ... A couple of decent improvements or new runners on any of these teams make them contenders to win ... It looks that close to me right now, but I expect one or two teams will emerge from the pack during the season ... But it is uncertain who that might be ... Update - One runner from Wayland-Cohocton was mistakenly deleted from the original posting ... Dante Penepent is at Rhinebeck (not Pawling as originally posted).

 
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                           ---------  -------------------------------------------
Pawling
  Matt Jorgensen        12    167     166 167 166 165 166 165 163 168 168
  Dylan Smith           12    146     148 143 144 141 135 132 147 140
  Brandon Capo          12    145     140 145 148 141 135 122 146
  Kevin Langone         11    140     140 138

Fonda-Fultonville
  Matt Hoffman          12    166     165 167 168 164 168 166 167 152 158 159 160
  Tyler Angioli         12    154     150 154 155 152 156 144 154 144 154 135 149
  Jimmy Westman         12    146     141 141 150 139 147 138 154 142 141 143 139
  Omijah Piening        12    124     105 127 103 131 127 114 137 130 124 131 113
  Dalton Hunter         11    129     124 129 130
  Jacob Shave           12    94      84 98

Rhinebeck
  Zach Karas            12    158     153 161 155 155 158 158 153
  Dante Penepent        11    157     148 158 158 144 161 147 159
  Otto Neiler           11    135     126 135 137 136 137 116 130
  Tyler Dezago          11    133     122 136 134 132 134 111 122
  Chris Cassano         10    130     130
  Hunter Miller         11    119     119

Solvay
  Cody McCarthy         12    167     162 168 171 163 158 162 149 156
  Matt Cregan           12    149     150 149 148 141 146 142 133
  Matt Battaglia        12    135     122 141 137 127 131 128 110
  Eric Goodrich         11    134     137 127 131 128 131
  Nate Carr             11    130     127 133 123 134 111 104
  Isaiah Lee            10    120     122 110 123 106 120 95
  Lucas Campbell        10    101     106 61 104 57 113 104 101
  
Tully
  Nate Delles           12    153     151 156 150 152 151 148 154 150 141 128
  Evan Knapp            11    146     137 131 152 150 150 147 144 144
  Zach Zgardzinski      12    136     134 134 134 135 139 134 136 137 140
  Noah Paccia           12    135     134 135 139 132 130 133 123 122 121 113
  Brad Phelps           10    130     134 124 129 124 127 128 120 119 122 100
  Ed Maskelony          12    119     122 119 114 114 105 111 108
  Jimmy Maskelony       10    95      86 98 96 89 100 76 69
  
Hannibal
  Ryan Perry            12    163     165 159 160 156 162 157
  Ben Slate             11    148     147 151 145 144 132 137
  James Sullivan        12    145     134 150 147 143 127 129
  Frank Lackey          12    128     131 126 125 124 108 106
  Erick Febus           12    123     125 120 119 122 119 111
  Zane Pointon          11    119     110 120 123 114 113 105
  Josh Darrow           11    108     108 108 103 63
  
Wayland-Cohocton
  Brandon Selbig        12    150     149 139 149 155 153 151 154
  Aaron Kelly           11    141     133 138 144 141 145 139
  Charlie Flagg         12    135     123 122 137 135 147 138 138
  Levi Malone           11    130     125 113 137
  Drew Lord             12    124     110 128
  Ethan Keister         12    110     93 116 

Beekmantown
  Colin Quackenbush     11    149     137 153 152 127 139
  Jordan West           11    148     134 152 150 127
  Matt Simpson          11    148     127 151 150
  John Graziane         11    135     107 142 140 109 127
  Brandon Couture       11    117     91 123 120 85 116
  Cory Couture          11    72      37 85 53

Holland Patent
  Todd Stevens          12    159     152 163 162 159 158 154 151 143 138
  Barrett Celecki       11    146     137 148 145 151 144 141 138 136 131
  Bryce Zayachek        10    145     143 149 143 137 128 144 116
  Logan Zayachek        10    126     126 122 125 100 130 111 126 115
  Brandon Baird         12    115     117 107 111 116 115 102
  Brian Chambrone       10    106     109 105 92 104 95 96
	

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Beaver River            100      (03-D )
   Maple Grove             100      (06-D )
   Campbell-Savona         110      (05-D )
   Barker                  115      (06-D )
   Berlin                  130      (02-D )
   Weedsport               130      (03-D )
   Sauquoit Valley         140      (03-D )
   Onondaga                160      (03-D )
   Ticonderoga             175      (07-D )
   LaFayette               210      (03-D )
   SS Seward               210      (09-D ) 

In all honesty, this is another "guessing" game in trying to project teams in the pre-season ... The XC data is last year's data (even though it does have some meaning) ... Track data are limited somewhat, and not particularly helpful in this instance ... Lots of uncertainty.

 
                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Beaver River
  Alex Hall             12    150     132 151 158 148 146 153 151 147 133 135 129
  Nathan Cobb           12    145     141 145 146 147 144 149 145 144 135 136 132
  Dustin Neddo          11    140     135 143 138 145 139 136 132 127 128 128
  Andrew Purcell        10    129     130 125 133 120 117 122 110 125 109
  Troy Purcell          9     127     119 134 127 113 122 120 111 112 108
  Lucas Schmitt         10    119     124 116 110 114 117 100 98 97 94
  David Ormsbee         12    106     107 99 107 107 111 98 85

Maple Grove
  Corey Wefing          11    170     159 171 170 173 170 169 165
  Peter Cala            11    146     147 144 137
  Matt Nelson           12    133     116 126 141 131 136 129
  Nick Zuroski          12    130     115 129 130 130 139
  Colin Green           12    128     104 117 137 140 124 129 118
  Frank Zuroski         9     121     113 115 125 120 121 124

Campbell-Savona
  Jon Pearl             12    160     161 160 158 153 157 152 148
  Joel Rosko            11    133     132 136 126 131 115
  Corbin Luta           12    133     117 135 128 139 121
  Collin Rexford        12    132     116 137
  Ethan Luta            12    131     122 134
  Anthony Nichols       11    123     117 125

Barker
  Jordan Bender         12    154     151 153 154 154 77 154 155 155
  Sergio Cruz           10    149     149 148 149 150 133 132 144 136
  Bryce Moeller         11    134     133 136 130 123 114
  Doug Bachman          10    125     126 120
	

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   St. Anthonys             38      (CHSAA)          
   Collegiate               80      (AIS  )        
   Chaminade               100      (CHSAA)          
   Monsignor Farrell       100      (CHSAA)          
   St. John the Baptist    130      (CHSAA)          
   Bronx HS Science        140      (PSAL )         
   Xavier                  170      (CHSAA)          
   Thomas Jefferson        200      (PSAL )         
   Kellenberg              210      (CHSAA)          
   Fordham Prep            220      (CHSAA)          
   Regis                   230      (CHSAA)  

In terms of enrollment numbers, I believe Collegiate would be a Class C public school (in most NYSPHSAA sections) ... Collegiate would be odds-on favorite if they were a Class C team ... In Section 2, they would almost certainly be classified up to at least Class B, and possibly Class A.

Chaminade and Monsignor Farrell seem reasonably close entering the season, but that's just a "guess" based the data I'm looking at ... I expect both teams will show nice improvement at XC performance levels during the season, but I am not certain which team has the most potential entering the season.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep    XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2011
                              ----     ----    -----    ---------  -------------------------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Patrick Ginty         12     9:31    4:21      --        175     175 174 178 166 175 172 170 160
  Jake Hensler          12     9:54     --      9:52       170     169 168 170 172 168 168 171 170 169
  Matthew Taddeo        12     9:37    4:23y     --        167     164 159 170 169 164 171 171 164 167
  Christopher Regan     12     9:51    4:40      --        164     162 162 168 163 154 157 158 154 146
  Tyler Wolfe           11     9:51    4:33     10:16      162     161 163 160 163 163 146
  John McMullin         11     9:45    4:26      --        160     160 155 161 158 161 152
  Jed McMullin          11      --      --       --        155     155
  William Henfling      11    10:02    4:33      --        155     154 152 154 144 156 158
  Louis Santelli III    11      --     4:33     1:59(800)  154     153 153 154 160 148 150 150
  Thomas Louro          11      --     4:29     1:57(800)  154     157 150 153 149 149 155 146 139 138
  Brian Kreider         11      --     4:45      --        153     155 144 152 153 142 149
  Kevin Solar           11      --     4:46      --        151     151 150 146
  Brian Gallagher       12      --     4:42      --        140     137 138 143 136 136

Collegiate
  Marco Pompilj         10     9:28    4:17      --        177     179 174 171 171
  J.P. Meredith         12     9:46    4:32y     --        162     151 167 162 160 155 161 159 150 152
  Liam Buckley          11     9:52    4:34      --        159     152 159 161 143
  Ty Buckley            12     9:59    4:36y     --        157     161 154 155 154 144 152 147 145 136
  Isao Anzai            12      --     4:41      --        157     151 159 157 158 153 151 157 154 150
  Luke Chang            11    10:14    4:43      --        143     143 145 132 137 143 123
  Tristan Gwertzman     11      --      --       --        138     138 138

Chaminade
  Thomas Slattery       11     9:46    4:23y     --        166     168 164 163 163 165 159 164 159 153 156
  Sean Kelly            11      --     4:18     2:00(800)  160     163 149 160 149 149
  Matthew Walsh         12     9:55    4:33      --        160     159 160 158 157 163 152 149 153
  Christopher Grant     12      --     4:34     1:59(800)  155     155 141 158 161 144 149
  Nicholas Sidoti       12      --     4:57      --        153     149 153 153
  Joseph White          11      --     4:46      --        151     152 145 150 134 147
  Gunnar Nolan          10      --     4:23y    1:58(800)  150     150
  Alex Drennan          12      --     4:42      --        148     141 152 142
  Giuseppe Chiara       11      --     4:55      --        147     147 146 148

Monsignor Farrell
  Dan Galford           12     9:26y   4:15r     --        187     184 189 190 185 181 184 176 175 173
  John Bentivegna       12     9:30    4:24y    1:59(800r) 172     173 172 173 170 167 171 169 160 164
  Daniel Lewandowski    12     9:56    4:49y    9:55       156     151 153 155 159 162 157 161 158 152
  Brian Tress           12     9:57    4:28      --        153     116 163 148 144 163 132 152
  Sean Crowley          11    10:31    4:59y    11:03      151     147 152 155 146 147 142 145 144
  Brandon Freeman       10    10:29    4:53      --        143     140 144
  Michael Hartnett      12      --     4:56      --        141     137 143 140 136 137
  Luke Jackson          11      --     4:47      --        140     135 139 134 131 148 143 139 147