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A Look at Some Footlocker & NXN Speed Ratings 2012

by Bill Meylan (December 19, 2012)

This article is intended for viewers having a serious interest in the speed ratings I derive for the Footlocker and NXN National races ... Some viewers wonder about the earlier seasonal speed ratings of runners competing at Footlocker and NXN, and how those earlier speed ratings figure into my ratings for the national races ... Some want to know if I have compilations of speed ratings for the runners not in New York State.

Also some questions about direct comparisons between Footlocker and NXN National ratings ... I will start by showing the numbers of just the runners that competed in both the Footlocker and NXN National races.

Runners That Ran Both Footlocker & NXN Nationals in 2012 ... The table below lists the 12 runners that ran both Footlocker and NXN in 2012 along with their respective places, times and ratings for both ... In addition, it lists their "speed ratings entering Footlocker and NXN Nationals" (which are placed in most recent order as in Footlocker regional, NXN regional, State Meet and so-on ... I do not have complete speed rating histories of most runners except NY runners, so I can only list the speed ratings I have, which are sufficient for my purposes).

	Gr	School	St	FL Place	FL Time	NXN Place	NXN Time	FL Rating	NXN Rating	Speed Ratings entering FL & NXN Nationals
BOYS
Jake Leingang	12	Bismarck	ND	3	15:07	59	18:14	204	177	195 197 192 194 185
Sam Wharton	12	Tippecanoe	OH	6	15:19	1	17:06	200	200	195 193 192 189
Ryan Kromer	12	Hudson	WI	8	15:30	9	17:25	197	194	191 191 189 191
Robert Domanic	12	Hebron	TX	15	15:40	5	17:22	194	195	191 193 195 186 177
Scott Milling	12	York	IL	27	15:53	27	17:46	189	187	191 189 187 173 170

GIRLS
Maria Hauger	12	Shakopee	MN	3	17:30	14	20:01	157	145	152 151 148 151
Karis Jochen	12	A&M Consolidated	TX	5	17:36	5	19:42	155	151	148 150 150 150 144
Bobbie Burgess	12	West Lafayette	IN	9	17:46	30	20:23	152	137	142 141 141 141
Sandie Raines	12	Kingwood	TX	11	17:53	32	20:26	150	136	146 146 146 146 140 139 139
Taylor Werner	9	Ste. Genevieve	MO	13	17:53	40	20:34	150	134	152 143 142 150
Courtney Ackerman	12	New Trier	IL	17	18:02	6	19:43	147	151	150 142 143 140 139 139
Alex Davis	12	Plainview	OK	26	18:20	38	20:31	140	135	146 143 141

Looking at the Boys above ... Four of the five guys had speed ratings that were reasonable similar for both national meets ... the exception was Jake Leingang who had his worst race of year at NXN and his best race of the year at Footlocker (stuff does happen) ... as noted by the ratings entering the national meets, 4 of the 5 guys ran up to form (or slightly better) at NXN and all five ran well at Footlocker with Leingang and Kromer having speed rating PRs.

Looking at the Girls above ... Based on observation over the years, when the conditions of a race are very slow, or difficult, or extreme (such as Portland Meadows in 2012), the speed ratings of girls are generally affected more than boys ... 5 of the 7 Footlocker girls had their lowest speed rating of the year at NXN Portland Meadows ... in contrast, 4 of the 7 girls set speed rating PRs at Footlocker Nationals.

NXN - Footlocker ... Both national races are 5000 meters in distance ... BUT look at the race times above for these elite national runners ... NXN was much slower (minutes slower) due to the extreme conditions of the Portland Meadows course ... This makes the speed rating comparison something of an "apples-to-oranges" comparison even though the math and stats may be accurate ... extreme conditions affect runners differently as noted in the small sample above, but that's something handicappers need to evaluate on an individual basis.

As I have noted in most of my NXN National predictions, years of observation show that most teams and individuals will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN for various reasons ... Many runners will have NXN speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections based on speed ratings entering NXN ... NXN 2012 was especially bad in this regard ... I was going to post some compilations, but I found it too depressing for such a quality national event ... Overall ratings of team members entering NXN Nationals are available from the NXN Prediction page and compiled ratings at Portland Meadows by team are available on NXN 2012 Results page.

NXN Rating Strategy ... Even from the very beginning of NXN, I have applied the well known concept of horse races in the mud - horses that race poorly in the mud do exactly that, they run slow and poorly relative to other horses (and their speed ratings must reflect that) ... Do not assume they run "average" if, in fact, they run poorly.

As with all high school cross country races at this point of the season, my initial speed ratings are determined by a direct graphical and statistical comparison of the current race to same race in previous years that have known race adjustments ... Therefore, I compared NXN 2012 to NXN 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2008 (all had team + individual runners) and derived an initial race adjustment ... I then identified the individual runners in 2012 that seemed to run relatively "typical" races for them individually (and excluded all runners that ran poorly) and derived a second race adjustment using these individual runners ... The two different race adjustments differed by only 3 seconds, so I averaged them and the final speed ratings were calculated.

NXN - Footlocker Boys ... 3 of the 5 guys finished in the top 9 at NXN Nationals ... all 3 equaled or exceeded their best speed rating coming into the race which is consistent with those finishing positions ... The NXN winner (Sam Wharton) had a 200 speed rating (a PR by 5 points) which he equaled at Footlocker.

Five guys entered NXN Nationals having already achieved an individual speed rating of 197 or higher ... 3 of those 5 guys (Nick Ryan, Bernie Montoya and Jake Leingang) had their worst speed rating of the year at NXN Portland Meadows ... the other two (Joe Hardy and Kai Wilmot) finished 4th and 32nd (that may have been Wilmot's lowest as well, but he entered NXN coming off an injury).

In contrast ... 6 guys entered Footlocker Finals having achieved an individual speed rating of 197 or higher prior to NXN and Footlocker ... 5 of those 6 guys took the top 5 places at Balboa Park (and 6th at Footlocker was Sam Wharton who achieved a 200 rating at NXN) ... Apparently form held up a little bit better at Footlocker.

Footlocker Is Unique

Speed rating the Footlocker National race was an interesting "research project" when I initially decided to evaluate the race back in 2001 ... The race is different than all other high school cross country races for two major reasons:
... (1) Limited to Elite runners who have qualified
... (2) Limited to only 32 or 40 runners

This makes the race unique ... that means it can only be profiled by itself (which means it can only be compared to itself via prior year's races), and that requires background data on both the race and the individuals who were in the race.

My Footlocker speed ratings for 1997-2012 are listed on a Footlocker speed rating page (along with the best ratings since 1982).

The ratings look a bit high compared to in-season speed ratings ... That's the major question I get from viewers and coaches.

The ratings looked high to me as well in my initial research, BUT I also realized the race is unique ... A small elite-only field of runners competing in a championship race with good weather and good course conditions plus media and sponsor attention ... This encourages runners to run fast ... The best runners will be challenged and will need to run their best to win ... The high quality of the runners encourages runners to get "pulled-along" to their fastest performances ever ... and that's precisely what I was seeing in the results ... Not that much different from elite runners competing in track races ... The top runners finish very fast while the middle and back runners have more "normal" performances (or maybe a bit slow at the end) ... And that's how I profile Footlocker Finals.

Tables of the Girls Footlocker Ratings for 2012 and Boys Footlocker Ratings for 2012 are listed below with their available speed ratings entering the two national races.

Footlocker Girls ... The initial race adjustment via direct comparison to previous year's Footlocker results looked consistent with race adjustments for Balboa Park ... Being from NY, I looked at the three NY girls (21st, 25th and 31st) and saw their speed ratings were a bit lower than their "overall" NY ratings which is consistent with those finish places ... After looking at all runners individual seasonal ratings, I lowered the initial adjustment by one point (so Anna Rohrer went from 160 to 159).

Over half the girls' field had already achieved a speed rating better than or equal to their Footlocker rating (mostly better) ... 6 of the top 8 finishers entered Footlocker with ratings of 150-156, so the Footlocker ratings of 153-159 are consistent with those finishes.

Footlocker Boys ... 25 of 39 guys had already achieved a speed rating better than or equal to their Footlocker rating (mostly better) ... Edward Cheserek had the best rating (207), but he exceeded that rating on several occasions last year ... Fairly common overall results for the boys.

Girls Footlocker Ratings - 2012

PL	Name	Gr	School	St	Footlocker Time	FL Rating	NXN Rating	Ratings entering FL & NXN Nationals
1	Anna Rohrer	10	Mishawaka	IN	17:25	159	---	156 154 144 147
2	Catarina Rocha	12	Peabody	MA	17:29	157	---	156 147
3	Maria Hauger	12	Shakopee	MN	17:30	157	144	152 151 148 151
4	Jordyn Colter	10	Cherry Creek	CO	17:30	157	---	151 151 155
5	Karis Jochen	12	A&M Consolidated	TX	17:36	155	151	148 150 150 150 144
6	Sophie Chase	12	Lake Braddock	VA	17:42	153	---	148 147 141 141
7	Anna Holdiman	12	Waverly-Shell	IA	17:43	153	---	143 133 136
8	Marissa Williams	10	Palisades Charter	CA	17:43	153	---	153 131 138 145 128
9	Bobbie Burgess	12	West Lafayette	IN	17:46	152	137	142 141 141 141
10	Hannah Long	10	Eureka	MO	17:47	152	---	143 147 144 148
11	Sandie Raines	12	Kingwood	TX	17:53	150	136	146 146 146 146 140 139 139
12	Carmen Carlos	12	McGill-Toolen	AL	17:53	150	---	146 153 143
13	Taylor Werner	9	Ste. Genevieve	MO	17:53	150	134	152 143 142 150
14	Megan Curham	12	Villa Walsh	NJ	17:56	149	---	149 139 140 138 128
15	Bridget Blake	12	Dr. Phillips	FL	17:56	148	---	146 135 121
16	Caroline Alcorta	11	West Springfield	VA	17:57	148	---	144 140 135
17	Courtney Ackerman	12	New Trier	IL	18:02	147	151	150 142 143 140 139 139
18	Marisa Ruskan	12	Bridgewater-Rar	NJ	18:04	146	---	141 139 139 133 119
19	Regan Rome	11	Dallas	PA	18:04	146	---	148 123 133 129
20	Julia Maxwell	11	Branson	CA	18:04	146	---	143 147 146 144
21	Katie Lembo	11	Penfield	NY	18:05	145	---	148 145 146 143 147 146 149 145 144 136
22	Maggie Drazba	12	St. Marys	WV	18:06	145	---	147 147 145
23	Madeleine Ankhelyi	12	Vista del Lago	CA	18:07	145	---	136 137 144 139
24	Makena Morley	10	Bigfork	MT	18:12	143	---	142 132 141
25	Marissa Saenger	11	Clarence	NY	18:18	141	---	142 149 133 139 138 141 131 132
26	Alex Davis	12	Plainview	OK	18:20	140	135	146 143 141
27	Mackenzie Barry	11	West Morris Mend	NJ	18:21	140	---	144 141 137 130
28	Summer Harper	12	Orem	UT	18:22	140	---	133 124 140 124 132
29	Paige Gilchrist	12	Hellgate	MT	18:23	139	---	142 140 133
30	Amelia Paladino	11	University	WV	18:26	139	---	139 137 132
31	Megan Reilly	9	Warwick Valley	NY	18:26	139	---	140 137 152 147 143 146 135 136
32	Sarah Feeny	11	Ogden	UT	18:31	137	---	131 131 130 137
33	Allie Klimkiewicz	10	Oakton	VA	18:33	136	---	140 126 137
34	Kaylee Flanagan	12	Lake Park	IL	18:35	135	---	143 139 144 145
35	Melanie Nun	12	Legacy	CO	18:37	135	---	141 133 114 116
36	Katelyn Bianchini	12	Glacier Peak	WA	18:42	133	---	136 138 135
37	Kennedy Weisner	11	Elk County Cath	PA	19:00	127	---	140 138 148 136
38	Kayla Ferron	12	Redondo Union	CA	19:00	127	---	131 133 130 124 120 118

Boys Footlocker Ratings - 2012

PL	Name	Gr	School	St	Footlocker Time	FL Rating	NXN Rating	Ratings entering FL & NXN Nationals
1	Edward Cheserek	12	St. Benedict's	NJ	14:59	207	---	203 201
2	Sean McGorty	12	Chantilly	VA	15:05	205	---	201 198 196 198 189
3	Jake Leingang	12	Bismarck	ND	15:07	204	177	195 197 192 194 185
4	Benjamin Saarel	12	Park City	UT	15:13	202	---	198 192 194 198 184
5	Jacob Thomson	12	Holy Cross	KY	15:14	202	---	191 200 198 191 185 185
6	Sam Wharton	12	Tippecanoe	OH	15:19	200	200	195 193 192 189
7	Aaron Templeton	11	Hardin Valley	TN	15:29	197	---	192 190 192
8	Ryan Kromer	12	Hudson	WI	15:30	197	194	191 191 189 191
9	John Lawson	12	Sir Francis Drake	CA	15:31	196	---	195 182 181 185
10	Zach Perrin	12	Flathead	MT	15:32	196	---	191 191 183
11	Andrew Gardner	12	Mead	WA	15:34	195	---	193 196 195 193
12	Conner Mantz	10	Sky View	UT	15:34	195	---	193 187 190 181
13	Quintin McKinnish	11	Morristown-West	TN	15:36	195	---	190 190 188
14	John Dressel	10	Mt. Spokane	WA	15:37	194	---	193 189 187 185 185 182
15	Robert Domanic	12	Hebron	TX	15:40	194	195	191 193 195 186 177
16	Kramer Morton	11	Alta	UT	15:41	193	---	191 181 189 184 182
17	Max Norris	12	Harriton	PA	15:41	193	---	194 187 183
18	Troy Fraley	12	Glacier	MT	15:42	193	---	195 186 187
19	Patrick Perrier	11	O'Fallon	IL	15:43	192	---	193 187 189 185 182
20	Nicholas Raymond	12	Erie Mason	MI	15:44	192	---	193 190
21	Brendan Shearn	12	North Schuylkill	PA	15:44	192	---	195 186 184 183 186
22	Jonathan Green	12	St. John's	MA	15:45	192	---	198 197 192 190 188
23	Shawn Wilson	12	Cherokee	NJ	15:45	192	---	196 192 184
24	Patrick Gibson	12	Squalicum	WA	15:46	191	---	191 189 192
25	Brent Demarest	11	Porter-Gaud	SC	15:48	191	---	188 195
26	Grant Nykaza	12	Beecher	IL	15:51	190	---	193 187 187
27	Scott Milling	12	York	IL	15:53	189	187	191 189 187 173 170
28	Kyle Kroon	11	Toms River South	NJ	15:56	188	---	195 190 187
29	Connor Mora	12	Cedar Springs	MI	15:58	187	---	191 190
30	Nicholas Elswick	11	Chardon	OH	15:59	187	---	190 187
31	Apolinar Baltazar	12	Aberdeen	WA	16:00	187	---	190 191
32	Austin Pondel	12	Corry Area	PA	16:00	187	---	193 188
33	Samuel Prakel	12	Versailles	OH	16:03	186	---	193 192 189
34	Brent Kennedy	11	Kiski Area	PA	16:07	185	---	193 190 188
35	Brad Hort	12	McIntosh	GA	16:09	184	---	190 185
36	Noah Gade	12	Stillwater	OK	16:11	183	---	189
37	Simon Holden	12	Baylor School	TN	16:16	181	---	189 186 189
38	Trevor Crawley	12	Cumberland	RI	16:19	181	---	194 188 189 185
39	Chris Alvarado	11	Fairfield	CT	16:28	177	---	194 180 180

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