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 NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2012

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners ... See the "Importance of Speed Ratings in Handicapping NXN Nationals" article for additional information.

Three Team Scores are posted below:
 .. (1) The Overall Morning-Line Team Scores ... a combination of the overall ratings listed below PLUS some manual manipulation (based on historical trends or current information) to try and projection what "bettors" might actual consider a starting point for wagering ... Personally, I might actually bet somewhat differently.
 .. (2) Team Scores Using NXN Regional Speed Ratings
 .. (3) Team Scores Using State Meet Speed Rating (Note - for California, the actual CA State Meet ratings are applied to NXN Region (since it was the CA NXN qualifier) ... CA Section Final speed ratings used for "State" scores below)

See text files of data (worksheets of various team speed ratings by race):
 .... Boys Data File of Speed Ratings ]
 .... Girls Data File of Speed Ratings ]

Initial projections posted on November 27, 2012  .... Actual Results Posted Dec 1, 2012 ....

.... Actual Results Posted Dec 1, 2012 ....

[ Girls Projections ]

 

 Boys NXN Projected Team Scores 2012 ... Repeat of Last Year?? - CBA & Southlake Carroll
 

  Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Boys            ACTUAL RESULTS
                                                                                                  Pred
  1   Christian Brothers     NJ    135  (Northeast )          1   Arcadia CA                 108  (5)
  2   Southlake Carroll      TX    142  (South     )          2   American Fork UT           122  (4)
  3   North Central          WA    175  (Northwest )          3   North Central WA           146  (3)
  4   American Fork          UT    187  (Southwest )          4   Christian Brothers NJ      167  (1)
  5   Arcadia                CA    199  (California)          5   Cardinal O'Hara            223  (7)
  6   York                   IL    215  (Midwest   )          6   York IL                    231  (6)
  7   Cardinal O'Hara        PA    249  (Northeast )          7   Kamiakin WA                239  (18)
  8   West Chester Henderson PA    254  (Northeast )          8   Southlake Carrol TX        246  (2)
  9   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    259  (New York  )          9   St. Xavier OH              251  (16)
  10  Saratoga               NY    272  (New York  )          10  Blacksburg VA              257  (19)
  11  Davis                  UT    273  (Southwest )          11  Carmel IN                  268  (14)
  12  St. Xavier-KY          KY    299  (Southeast )          12  Saratoga NY                271  (10)
  13  Summit                 OR    303  (Northwest )          13  Davis UT                   308  (11)
  14  Carmel                 IN    304  (Midwest   )          14  St. Xavier-KY              322  (12)
  15  Carlsbad               CA    306  (California)          15  West Chester Henderson PA  352  (8)
  16  St. Xavier OH          OH    331  (Midwest   )          16  Fayetteville-Manlius       372  (9)
  17  Dowling Catholic       IA    339  (Heartland )          17  Bismarck ND                393  (20)
  18  Kamiakin               WA    360  (Northwest )          18  Carlsbad CA                424  (15)
  19  Blacksburg             VA    362  (Southeast )          19  Dowling Catholic IA        442  (17)
  20  Bismarck               ND    370  (Heartland )          20  California CA              464  (22)
  21  The Woodlands          TX    383  (South     )          21  Summit OR                  485  (13)
  22  California             CA    384  (California)          22  The Woodlands TX           526  (21)



         Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
        NXN Regional Speed Ratings                           State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   American Fork          UT    135    (Southwest )          1   Christian Brothers     NJ    114  
 2   Arcadia                CA    142    (California)          2   Southlake Carroll      TX    114  
 3   Southlake Carroll      TX    142    (South     )          3   North Central          WA    169  
 4   Christian Brothers     NJ    164    (Northeast )          4   American Fork          UT    223  
 5   Cardinal O'Hara        PA    217    (Northeast )          5   St. Xavier-KY          KY    237  
 6   West Chester Henderson PA    218    (Northeast )          6   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    249  
 7   York                   IL    219    (Midwest   )          7   York                   IL    266  
 8   North Central          WA    234    (Northwest )          8   Saratoga               NY    275  
 9   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    250    (New York  )          9   St. Xavier OH          OH    276  
 10  St. Xavier-KY          KY    287    (Southeast )          10  Cardinal O'Hara        PA    278  
 11  Saratoga               NY    296    (New York  )          11  Arcadia                CA    280  
 12  Carlsbad               CA    303    (California)          12  West Chester Henderson PA    284  
 13  Carmel                 IN    329    (Midwest   )          13  Summit                 OR    286  
 14  California             CA    332    (California)          14  Carmel                 IN    306  
 15  Davis                  UT    340    (Southwest )          15  Dowling Catholic       IA    317  
 16  Blacksburg             VA    347    (Southeast )          16  Kamiakin               WA    324  
 17  Dowling Catholic       IA    362    (Heartland )          17  Carlsbad               CA    338  
 18  Bismarck               ND    364    (Heartland )          18  Blacksburg             VA    343  
 19  St. Xavier OH          OH    392    (Midwest   )          19  The Woodlands          TX    362  
 20  Summit                 OR    397    (Northwest )          20  Davis                  UT    393  
 21  Kamiakin               WA    401    (Northwest )          21  Bismarck               ND    451  
 22  The Woodlands          TX    453    (South     )          22  California             CA    474  
		

Pre-Race Comments ... All eight years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses (typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The overall morning-line projected team scores above are based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating) ... SEE the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and State Meet ratings above.

General Team Comments:

The morning-line at most horse tracks considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2) an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping opinion of the person making the morning-line ... The first two factors are usually the most important.

Along those lines, Christian Brothers (NJ) and Southlake Carroll (TX) finished 1st and 2nd last year (separated by only 4 points) and they were more than 60 points ahead of the 3rd-place team (Davis (UT) ... Considering the overall 2012 XC season plus proven ability at Portland Meadows, I believe Christian Brothers (NJ) and Southlake Carroll (TX) enter NXN 2012 as the top two teams with some separation from the other top contenders.

American Fork (UT), North Central (WA), Arcadia (CA) and York (IL) are definitely serious contenders with great team performances ... and I can envision any of the top 11 teams in the morning-line having a real chance at a podium position ... As noted above, some of the teams are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ... This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.

Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and predicting the exact order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note: I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off" races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run well).

Remember ... the Portland Meadows course in early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up significantly in projected finish-positions.

Individual Team Comments:

Christian Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ is the defending NXN Champion (and they were 5th at NXN 2010) ... CBA has experience and demonstrated ability at Portland Meadows ... They have run extremely well in 2012 and were given something of a "wake-up" call at the NXN Northeast regional ... That experience, demonstrated ability and team depth makes Christian Brothers the slight favorite to win.

Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished a close 2nd at NXN last year and the return with another outstanding team ... Southlake Carroll has experience and demonstrated ability at Portland Meadows ... I give CBA the advantage of team depth (in case a typical scorer has an "off" race).

North Central WA ... North Central competed very nicely at WA States and the NXN Northwest regional without their top seasonal runner Taylor (Kai) Wilmot ... Wilmot is listed in the entries, so I added him as a North Central scorer ... according to several newspaper articles, Wilmot was side-lined with a tendon injury (I have him last competing at the Richland Invitational on Oct 6th) ... I have two questions as a handicapper, (1) will he actually run? and (2) how effective will he be returning from an injury of this length?? ... IF he runs decently (a top four scorer or better), North Central becomes a very serious contender for the win.

American Fork UT ... American Fork is a handicapping conundrum with respect to Portland Meadows ... their seasonal performances leading up to NXN Portland Meadows are outstanding, especially at NXN Southwest ... As noted above in the Team Scores based on NXN Regional speed ratings, American Fork is on top ... But American Fork has historically had problems reproducing those performances at Portland Meadows ... They were the co-favorite at NXN 2010 and finished only 8th ... Last year,  American Fork  also had the best team score based on regional speed ratings (they finished 6th at NXN) ... Despite that, American Fork clearly deserves a good position in the morning-line.

Arcadia CA ... Arcadia won NXN 2010 and finished a very good 4th last year ... As noted last year, "been-there-done-that" applies in my book ... Arcadia has proven they can handle Portland Meadows.

York IL ... York is always at NXN Portland Meadows (because they are that good year-after-year) ... And this year, York has a really good shot at a podium position.

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 12th at NXN 2011 and 2nd at NXN 2010 ... FM should get their team score off to a great start with their top two runners (Nick Ryan and Bryce Millar) ... Top performances by the next three scorers could make this very interesting (look at NXN 2010).

Saratoga NY (Kinetic) ... Saratoga surprised the favorites (York, FM, Royal Simi) and won NXN 2005 (actually called NTN in 2005) ... Will Saratoga spring another surprise and make the podium in 2012?? ... They have a chance!

 

Individual Race Comments:

Nick Ryan (Fayetteville-Manlius) is the top returning NXN runner from 2011 ... Nick Ryan finished 5th last year after leading for nearly half the race then getting passed by eventual winner Futsum Zeinasellaissie ... he held on very gamely after being passed to earn that 5th-place finish ... Nick Ryan's only loss in 2012 was to the nation's top runner, Edward Cheserak, at Manhattan ... in his last two races, Nick Ryan set course records at Elma Meadows (the NY State Meet course in 2012) and Bowdoin Park on a rather cold and windy day (former record holder was Joe Rosa of New Jersey) ... Nick Ryan enters this race as the morning-line favorite due to his excellent performances in 2012 and he beat the top five contenders in the list below at NXN 2011 ... But those contenders present a serious challenge in 2012.

Bernie Montoya (Cibola AZ) proved his exceptional ability on the track last spring with outstanding times at the Mile (4:01.32) and 3200m (8:48.25) ... and he has been been running well during this XC season ... As a handicapper, I need to consider his ability to navigate the Portland Meadows conditions ... If he is close near the end, Bernie Montoya may be very hard to beat.

Jake Leingang (Bismarck ND) and Sam Wharton (Tippecanoe OH) both qualified for Footlocker Nationals as well NXN, and that demonstrates their outstanding abilities ... Both are experienced in national-class races and racing at Portland Meadows ... and that makes them serious contenders for the top spot.

Joe Hardy (Seattle Prep WA) has raced really well in 2012 ... As noted above, Taylor (Kai) Wilmot (North Central WA) is remarkably talented, but is coming off an injury ... Jacob Burcham (Cabell Midland WV) has excellent proven track ability plus very good XC performances.

Others in the list below are real contenders ... This may be the deepest NXN ever at the boy's elite level ... Should be an interesting race.

 

 
Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
                                                             
                                                              Speed
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Nick Ryan              12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      201.0     New York
Bernie Montoya         12      Cibola                 AZ      198.0     Southwest    ** Individual
Jake Leingang          12      Bismarck               ND      196.7     Heartland
Joe Hardy              11      Seattle Prep           WA      195.5     Northwest    ** Individual
Taylor (Kai) Wilmot    11      North Central          WA      195.0     Northwest    
Sam Wharton            12      Tippecanoe             OH      194.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Jacob Burcham          12      Cabell Midland         WV      194.0     Southeast    ** Individual
Tony Russell           11      West Chester Henderson PA      193.8     Northeast
Luis Martinez          12      Cleveland              NM      193.5     Southwest    ** Individual
Benjamin Saarel        12      Park City              UT      193.0     Southwest    ** Individual
Alex Riba              12      O'Fallon               IL      193.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Robert Domanic         12      Lewisville Hebron      TX      193.0     South        ** Individual
Jack Keelan            12      St. Ignatius CP        IL      192.1     Midwest      ** Individual
TJ Carey               12      Lake Orion             MI      192.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Quentin Shaffer        12      Mt. Prospect           IL      192.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Adam Peterman          12      Missoula Hellgate      MT      191.9     Northwest    ** Individual
Danny Aldaba           12      Fremont                NE      191.8     Heartland    ** Individual
Obsa Ali               11      Richfield              MN      191.6     Heartland    ** Individual
Mickey Burke           11      Rush-Henrietta         NY      191.5     New York     ** Individual
Eric Holt              12      Carmel                 NY      191.5     New York     ** Individual
TJ Hornberger          11      Lake Shore             NY      191.5     New York     ** Individual
Eric Colvin            12      Stillwater             MN      191.3     Heartland    ** Individual
Ryan Kromer            12      Hudson                 WI      191.2     Heartland    ** Individual
Jack Boyle             12      Christian Brothers     NJ      191.0     Northeast
Elijah Armstrong       10      Pocatello              ID      190.6     Northwest    ** Individual
Joe Sansone            12      Southlake Carroll      TX      190.5     South
Nate Sullivan          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      190.0     South
Estevan De La Rosa     11      Arcadia                CA      190.0     California
Scott Milling          12      York                   IL      189.5+    Midwest
Jake Heslington        12      Timpanogos             UT      190.0     Southwest    ** Individual
Nathaniel Adams        12      Lexington              MA      190.0     Northeast    ** Individual
James Randon           12      Middlesex              MA      190.0     Northeast    ** Individual
Juan Gonzalez          12      El Toro                CA      190.0     California   ** Individual
Bryan Fernandez        12      Dos Pueblos            CA      190.0     California   ** Individual
Connor Olson           12      Wayzata                MN      189.8     Heartland    ** Individual
AJ Yarnall             12      Saugus                 CA      189.8     California   ** Individual
Jordan Cross           12      Ogden                  UT      189.5     Southwest    ** Individual
Billy Bragg            12      Christian Brothers     NJ      189.1+    Northeast



Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ...
    See Boys Data File of Team Data ....) 


Team Runners and Ratings by Team:
                                                             Overall
                                                              Speed
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Brayden McLelland      12      American Fork          UT      187.0     Southwest
Connor McMillan        11      American Fork          UT      183.5     Southwest
Tyson Green            12      American Fork          UT      183.0     Southwest
Zac Jacklin            10      American Fork          UT      179.0     Southwest
Caleb Thompson         11      American Fork          UT      175.0     Southwest
Spencer Herzog         11      American Fork          UT      172.0     Southwest
Tyler Bell             11      American Fork          UT      163.0     Southwest

Estevan De La Rosa     11      Arcadia                CA      190.0     California
Mitchell Pratt         12      Arcadia                CA      186.0     California
Phillip Rocha          9       Arcadia                CA      180.0     California
Josue Gonzalez         11      Arcadia                CA      178.0     California
Mahmoud Moussa         11      Arcadia                CA      175.0     California
Jarrick Wenslow        11      Arcadia                CA      172.3     California
Bryan Ngo              11      Arcadia                CA      171.4     California

Jake Leingang          12      Bismarck               ND      196.7     Heartland
Preston Lerew          11      Bismarck               ND      176.5     Heartland
Brandon Berg           12      Bismarck               ND      173.3     Heartland
Lane Kashur            12      Bismarck               ND      173.2     Heartland
Matt Gotta             11      Bismarck               ND      171.8     Heartland
Dylan Werner           11      Bismarck               ND      162.0     Heartland
Logan Fischer          11      Bismarck               ND      156.0     Heartland

Nick Link              12      Blacksburg             VA      184.0     Southeast
Matthew Pasier         12      Blacksburg             VA      178.8     Southeast
Noah Combs             10      Blacksburg             VA      176.2     Southeast
Matthew Borny          12      Blacksburg             VA      174.2     Southeast
Luke Phillips          12      Blacksburg             VA      165.7     Southeast
Kenneth Hagen          11      Blacksburg             VA      162.5     Southeast
Nick Wilson            12      Blacksburg             VA      150.0     Southeast

Sam Bautista           12      California             CA      178.8     California
Leo Corcoran           12      California             CA      177.5     California
Jose Pacheco           11      California             CA      175.0     California
Matlazomatl Rojas      11      California             CA      173.5     California
Josh Roldan            12      California             CA      172.4     California
Chris Ramirez          12      California             CA      167.5     California
Rudy Gonzalez          11      California             CA      166.1     California

Dan Savage             12      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      184.1     Northeast
Kevin James            10      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      184.0     Northeast
Ernie Pitone           12      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      181.6     Northeast
Jim Belfatto           11      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      174.8     Northeast
Chris Pastore          12      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      174.1     Northeast
Matt Hayes             12      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      165.5     Northeast
Christian Donnelly     11      Cardinal O'Hara        PA      160.0     Northeast

Christian Freeman      12      Carlsbad               CA      186.0     California
Scott Snow             12      Carlsbad               CA      179.0     California
Jeff Schaefer          12      Carlsbad               CA      178.1     California
Shay Martin            12      Carlsbad               CA      177.5     California
Kevin Freeman          11      Carlsbad               CA      165.0     California
Sean Unger             11      Carlsbad               CA      164.5     California
Sean Pruitt            12      Carlsbad               CA      155.5     California

Bobby Browning         11      Carmel                 IN      181.0     Midwest
Charlie Watson         12      Carmel                 IN      177.1     Midwest
Ben Veatch             9       Carmel                 IN      177.0     Midwest
Ben Anderson           11      Carmel                 IN      175.7     Midwest
Michael George         11      Carmel                 IN      175.1     Midwest
Corey Turner           12      Carmel                 IN      174.2     Midwest
Jaedon Wilson          12      Carmel                 IN      164.0     Midwest

Jack Boyle             12      Christian Brothers     NJ      191.0     Northeast
Billy Bragg            12      Christian Brothers     NJ      189.1     Northeast
Mike McClemens         11      Christian Brothers     NJ      185.1     Northeast
Tom Rooney             11      Christian Brothers     NJ      182.0     Northeast
Fran Bogan             11      Christian Brothers     NJ      179.9     Northeast
Josh Kruppa            10      Christian Brothers     NJ      178.1     Northeast
Drew Reda              11      Christian Brothers     NJ      173.0     Northeast

Alex Hedquist          12      Davis                  UT      184.5     Southwest
Brayden Cromar         12      Davis                  UT      180.0     Southwest
Skylar Williams        11      Davis                  UT      177.0     Southwest
Preston Johnson        12      Davis                  UT      174.5     Southwest
Sam Haws               12      Davis                  UT      165.4     Southwest
Jackson Sagers         11      Davis                  UT      162.0     Southwest
Unkown                         Davis                  UT      162.0     Southwest

Jason Thomas           12      Dowling Catholic       IA      184.5     Heartland
Jeff DeRocher          12      Dowling Catholic       IA      180.9     Heartland
Spencer Clark          11      Dowling Catholic       IA      178.8     Heartland
Brian Wahlig           12      Dowling Catholic       IA      171.8     Heartland
Lukas Steffensmeier    12      Dowling Catholic       IA      167.0     Heartland
Charlie Jones          12      Dowling Catholic       IA      161.8     Heartland
Ian McKenzie           11      Dowling Catholic       IA      159.5     Heartland

Nick Ryan              12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      201.0     New York
Bryce Millar           10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      188.2     New York
Connor Farrell         12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      177.0     New York
Colin Fitzgibbons      12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      175.6     New York
Adam Hunt              10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      173.6     New York
Riley Hughes           10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      165.0     New York
Charlie Beeler         12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      162.5     New York

Austin Oser            12      Kamiakin               WA      182.0     Northwest
Ahmed Ibrahim          11      Kamiakin               WA      177.6     Northwest
Garrett Kraal          11      Kamiakin               WA      174.3     Northwest
Andrew Snyder          10      Kamiakin               WA      172.9     Northwest
Christian Rodrigue     12      Kamiakin               WA      172.3     Northwest
Daniel Sanchez         11      Kamiakin               WA      161.0     Northwest
Cameron Glade          10      Kamiakin               WA      160.9     Northwest

Taylor (Kai) Wilmot    11      North Central          WA      195.0 ??  Northwest
Tanner Anderson        10      North Central          WA      186.7     Northwest
Keith Williams         12      North Central          WA      184.5     Northwest
Oliver Reed            11      North Central          WA      179.0     Northwest
Austen Frostad         12      North Central          WA      177.0     Northwest
Isaac Kitzan           12      North Central          WA      176.3     Northwest
Nik Taylor             12      North Central          WA      172.7     Northwest

Jay Navin              11      Saratoga               NY      183.1     New York
Aidan Tooker           9       Saratoga               NY      179.5     New York
Gavin Gaynor           9       Saratoga               NY      177.1     New York
Brent Freestone        11      Saratoga               NY      177.0     New York
Evan Quinones          12      Saratoga               NY      173.5     New York
Travis Briggs          12      Saratoga               NY      169.5     New York
Joe Verro              11      Saratoga               NY      161.5     New York

Joe Sansone            12      Southlake Carroll      TX      190.5     South
Nate Sullivan          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      190.0     South
Connor Hendrickson     11      Southlake Carroll      TX      186.0     South
Trevor Gilley          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      185.2     South
Eli Canal              10      Southlake Carroll      TX      174.0     South
Alec Garner            12      Southlake Carroll      TX      168.5     South
Chase Wichman          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      162.0     South

Michael Hall           11      St. Xavier OH          OH      182.1     Midwest
Jake Grabowski         12      St. Xavier OH          OH      177.1     Midwest
Michael Momper         12      St. Xavier OH          OH      176.3     Midwest
Alex Kuvin             12      St. Xavier OH          OH      176.0     Midwest
Evan Stifel            11      St. Xavier OH          OH      174.0     Midwest
Andrew Gardner         12      St. Xavier OH          OH      171.2     Midwest
Patrick Drumm          12      St. Xavier OH          OH      167.5     Midwest

Connor Sheryak         12      St. Xavier-KY          KY      183.8     Southeast
Sam Lewis              12      St. Xavier-KY          KY      180.5     Southeast
Christopher Striegel   11      St. Xavier-KY          KY      177.0     Southeast
Nick Reader            12      St. Xavier-KY          KY      176.5     Southeast
Max Mudd               11      St. Xavier-KY          KY      173.2     Southeast
Mark Johnson           12      St. Xavier-KY          KY      166.1     Southeast
Thomas Cave            12      St. Xavier-KY          KY      165.1     Southeast

Travis Neuman          12      Summit                 OR      187.5     Northwest
Matthew Maton          10      Summit                 OR      186.0     Northwest
Eric Alldritt          12      Summit                 OR      182.7     Northwest
Luke Hinz              12      Summit                 OR      168.5     Northwest
Tyler Jones            10      Summit                 OR      163.0     Northwest
Alex Martin            9       Summit                 OR      162.5     Northwest
James Bowlin           12      Summit                 OR      160.0     Northwest

Brigham Hedges         12      The Woodlands          TX      188.0     South
Adam Davidson          12      The Woodlands          TX      182.0     South
Logan Emery            11      The Woodlands          TX      171.5     South
Eric Kroon             10      The Woodlands          TX      170.1     South
Craig Irvin            12      The Woodlands          TX      169.5     South
Rick Hawley            11      The Woodlands          TX      167.0     South
Hiroshi Kirby          12      The Woodlands          TX      159.0     South

Tony Russell           11      West Chester Henderson PA      193.8     Northeast
Reiny Barchet          11      West Chester Henderson PA      185.5     Northeast
Bobby Rimkis           12      West Chester Henderson PA      177.6     Northeast
Alex Knapp             10      West Chester Henderson PA      174.5     Northeast
Eric Stratman          11      West Chester Henderson PA      172.5     Northeast
Seamus Collins         11      West Chester Henderson PA      171.0     Northeast
Gordy Barchet          10      West Chester Henderson PA      163.0     Northeast

Scott Milling          12      York                   IL      189.5     Midwest
Kyle Mattes            11      York                   IL      180.1     Midwest
Alex Mimlitz           12      York                   IL      180.0     Midwest
Alex Bashqawi          11      York                   IL      178.0     Midwest
Chris May              12      York                   IL      174.5     Midwest
Jack Libert            12      York                   IL      172.8     Midwest
Matt Plowman           10      York                   IL      160.3     Midwest

 

GIRLS Projections:

 Girlss NXN Projected Team Scores 2012 - Fayetteville-Manlius favored again
 
   Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Girls            ACTUAL RESULTS
                                                                                                 Pred
   1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     95   (New York  )         1   Fayetteville-Manlius NY     54  (1)
   2   Southlake Carroll     TX    171   (South     )         2   Southlake Carroll TX       198  (2)
   3   Saratoga              NY    181   (New York  )         3   Carmel IN                  209  (8)
   4   Great Oak             CA    186   (California)         4   East Aurora NY             212  (15)
   5   Pennsbury             PA    207   (Northeast )         5   Saratoga NY                218  (3)
   6   Tatnall               DE    208   (Southeast )         6   Tatnall DE                 219  (6)
   7   Assumption            KY    209   (Southeast )         7   Wayzata MN                 232  (21)
   8   Carmel                IN    228   (Midwest   )         8   Fort Collins CO            238  (11)
   9   Davis                 UT    259   (Southwest )         9   Pennsbury PA               256  (5)
   10  Coeur D'Alene         ID    265   (Northwest )         10  Assumption KY              274  (7)
   11  Fort Collins          CO    266   (Southwest )         11  New Trier IL               275  (14)
   12  Pine Creek            CO    309   (Southwest )         12  Davis UT                   281  (9)
   13  Naperville North      IL    311   (Midwest   )         13  Camas WA                   294  (18)
   14  New Trier             IL    315   (Midwest   )         14  Coeur D'Alene ID           298  (10)
   15  East Aurora           NY    322   (New York  )         15  Naperville North IL        339  (13)
   16  St. Francis           CA    335   (California)         16  Great Oak CA               371  (4)
   17  Saugus                CA    342   (California)         17  Saugus CA                  388  (17)
   18  Camas                 WA    352   (Northwest )         18  Pine Creek CO              388  (12)
   19  The Woodlands         TX    359   (South     )         19  Eagan MN                   395  (22)
   20  Voorhees              NJ    359   (Northeast )         20  St. Francis CA             419  (16)
   21  Wayzata               MN    363   (Heartland )         21  The Woodlands TX           439  (19)
   22  Eagan                 MN    473   (Heartland )         22  Voorhees NJ                512  (20)



      Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
     NXN Regional Speed Ratings                              State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       96    (New York  )        1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       51
 2   Great Oak             CA      141    (California)        2   Southlake Carroll     TX      124
 3   Southlake Carroll     TX      157    (South     )        3   Great Oak             CA      175
 4   Saratoga              NY      185    (New York  )        4   Saratoga              NY      199
 5   Pennsbury             PA      220    (Northeast )        5   Pennsbury             PA      200
 6   Assumption            KY      248    (Southeast )        6   Coeur D'Alene         ID      218
 7   Davis                 UT      253    (Southwest )        7   Assumption            KY      230
 8   Pine Creek            CO      268    (Southwest )        8   Naperville North      IL      235
 9   Coeur D'Alene         ID      287    (Northwest )        9   New Trier             IL      257
 10  Fort Collins          CO      298    (Southwest )        10  East Aurora           NY      282
 11  Tatnall               DE      299    (Southeast )        11  Tatnall               DE      283
 12  St. Francis           CA      302    (California)        12  Camas                 WA      288
 13  New Trier             IL      318    (Midwest   )        13  Wayzata               MN      308
 14  Saugus                CA      322    (California)        14  St. Francis           CA      330
 15  Carmel                IN      335    (Midwest   )        15  Saugus                CA      331
 16  East Aurora           NY      347    (New York  )        16  Carmel                IN      342
 17  Naperville North      IL      347    (Midwest   )        17  Voorhees              NJ      377
 18  Camas                 WA      357    (Northwest )        18  Eagan                 MN      409
 19  The Woodlands         TX      361    (South     )        19  Davis                 UT      415
 20  Wayzata               MN      373    (Heartland )        20  Pine Creek            CO      420
 21  Voorhees              NJ      396    (Northeast )        21  Fort Collins          CO      473
 22  Eagan                 MN      506    (Heartland )        22  The Woodlands         TX      504
		

Pre-Race Comments ... History has a habit of repeating itself and top high school cross country teams have a habit of returning to Portland Meadows ... The top seven girls teams from NXN 2011 return to NXN 2012 ... and perennial favorite Fayetteville-Manlius NY is still the favorite.

 

Individual Team Comments:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the six-time defending National Champion and the odds-on favorite to win again ... FM may not seem as dominate in 2012 as in recent years, but this year's "pack" is performing at a very high level (only a 13 second team spread at NXN-NY) ... Last year's top runner, Jillian Fanning, has been hampered by bronchitis and injury, but has competed well ... the NXN regional also demonstrated the excellent team depth of FM.

Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished 7th at NXN last year and are racing better in 2012 ... This is a very good team capable of finishing on the podium.

Saratoga NY (Kinetic RC) ... Like 2009, 2010 and 2011, Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet and finished 2nd at NXN Regionals ... Saratoga has proven performance & experience at NXN ... And that proven performance & experience at NXN makes Saratoga a very small favorite over Great Oak for the 3rd-position.

Great Oak CA ... Great Oak CA is actually the number two team based on overall speed numbers ... But in typical fashion, I scaled them back somewhat with respect to CA performance at Portland Meadows.

Pennsbury PA ... Tatnall DE ... Assumption KY ... Carmel IN,.. Overall, these teams appear even-up to me and at a high enough level to make the podium.

Fort Collins CO ... Repeating What I Said Last Year - My numbers always under-rate Fort Collins with respect to NXN performance ... I think Fort Collins is one of those teams capable of elevating their performance level at specific races and courses (and Portland Meadows is one of those courses).

East Aurora NY ... East Aurora has journeyed to Portland Meadows on several occasions to run in the NXN Open race, and that should be beneficial for some of the runners (they won the NXN Open team race in 2010) ... East Aurora ended the season with very good performances at States and NXN regional (they deserved their at-large selection).

 

Individual Race Comments:

Like last year, the individual race is an excellent first-class contest of many of the best female runners in the nation ... Entering NXN 2012, I would probably rank Sarah Baxter, Mary Cain and Amy-Eloise Neale as the top three harriers in the nation ... and the other elite runners at NXN are excellent ... It appears that the NXN 2012 girl's field may be at a slightly higher level than Footlocker Finals 2012, but that remains to be seen ... I thought that last year until I saw the results of both national races when my opinion changed to "equal".

Footlocker is hurt this season by the absence of runners such as Erin Finn (hampered by flu and iron deficiency) and Ashley Erba (won NXN Midwest, turned it down, failed to qualify at Footlocker MW) ... But Footlocker runners Anna Rohrer (Indiana) and Catarina Rocha (Massachusetts) may be at a higher level than most people realize ... I want to see the results of both races ... Maria Hauger (MN), Karis Jochen (TX), Sandie Raines (TX), Taylor Werner (MO), Alex Davis (OK), Bobbie Burgess (IN) and Courtney Ackerman (New Trier IL) are in both NXN and Footlocker Nationals ... The New York and Northeast runners don't get that opportunity.

Sarah Baxter (Simi Valley) enters NXN 2012 as the favorite ... Sarah Baxter won NXN impressively last year ... She has taken down some excellent California course records with outstanding performances ... and I don't think we've seen her best as yet.

Mary Cain (attends Bronxville HS, but is running unattached and is coached by Alberto Salazar) ... Has had excellent performances at her recent two XC races since becoming "unattached" ... Her track performances speak for themselves and are second to no high current high school runner, but "cross country is not track" ... And running at Portland Meadows in December is different than other cross country venues ... Last year at NXN, Mary Cain finished 6th behind three runners in this year's race (Sarah Baxter, Amy-Eloise Neale and Katie Knight) ... But Mary Cain seems to be running at her best XC level ever entering NXN 2012, so I won't be surprised if she wins.

I personally think Mary Cain and Sarah Baxter would be better suited to a race course such as Balboa Park ... But their talent levels are high enough to negate some disadvantages ... I think Amy-Eloise Neale is capable of testing those disadvantages.

Amy-Eloise Neale (Glacier Peak) has been outstanding in 2012 and is a real contender in this race ... Northwest rival Katie Knight (North Central WA) races well at Portland Meadows (she was 3rd last year).

This race features some other excellent runners capable of contending ... Bella Burda (Arlington NY) has been a wonderful surprise in New York ... Alexa Efraimson (Camas WA), Hagen Reedy (Buchanan CA, 7th last year), Maria Hauger (Shakopee MN), Katie Knight (North Central WA), Madeline Perez (Glenbard West IL), Karis Jochen (TX), Wesley Frazier (NC), Taylor Werner (MO) and others make this a great race!

 

 
Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
                                                             
                                                              Speed
  Name                Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Sarah Baxter           11      Simi Valley            CA      162.0     California  **Individual
Mary Cain              11      Bronxville-Unattached  NY      158.0     New York    **Individual
Amy-Eloise Neale       12      Glacier Peak           WA      156.0     Northwest   **Individual
Bella Burda            10      Arlington              NY      152.0     New York    **Individual
Alexa Efraimson        10      Camas                  WA      151.0     Northwest
Hagen Reedy            12      Buchanan               CA      151.0     California  **Individual
Maria Hauger           12      Shakopee               MN      151.0     Heartland   **Individual
Katie Knight           12      North Central          WA      150.0     Northwest   **Individual
Madeline Perez         11      Glenbard West          IL      150.0     Midwest     **Individual
Karis Jochen           12      College Station A&M    TX      150.0     South       **Individual
Wesley Frazier         12      Ravenscroft-Unattached NC      149.3     Southeast   **Individual
Taylor Werner          9       Ste Genevieve          MO      149.0     Midwest     **Individual
Elise  Cranny          11      Niwot                  CO      149.0     Southwest   **Individual
Elinor Purrier         12      Richford               VT      148.5     Northeast   **Individual
Sarah Disanza          12      High Point             NJ      148.0     Northeast   **Individual
Paige Gilchrist        12      Missoula Hellgate      MT      147.7     Northwest   **Individual
Taylor Driscoll        12      Saratoga               NY      147.0     New York
Jessica Molloy         10      Mountain Brook         AL      147.0     Southeast   **Individual
Courtney Ackerman      12      New Trier              IL      145.0+    Midwest
Sara Tsai              10      South Eugene           OR      146.5     Northwest   **Individual
Maggie Schmaedick      12      Sheldon                OR      146.0     Northwest   **Individual
Sandie Raines          12      Humble Kingwood        TX      146.0     South       **Individual
Taylor Spillane        12      Champlain Valley       VT      146.0     Northeast   **Individual
Hannah Christen        11      Lake Braddock          VA      146.0     Southeast   **Individual
Clare Flanagan         11      The Blake School       MN      145.2     Heartland   **Individual


Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets...
    See Girls Data File of Team Data ....)

Team Runners and Ratings by Team:  

                                                             Overall
                                                             Speed
  Name                Grade     School              State    Rating     Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----    ------     ---------

Bailey Davis            11      Assumption            KY      140.1     Southeast
Katherine Receveur      11      Assumption            KY      135.5     Southeast
Emily Bean              11      Assumption            KY      128.5     Southeast
Kenzley Defler          11      Assumption            KY      124.4     Southeast
Kate Crawford           11      Assumption            KY      120.0     Southeast
Abbie Wright            10      Assumption            KY      105.0     Southeast
Olivia Boughey          12      Assumption            KY      102.0     Southeast

Alexa Efraimson         10      Camas                 WA      150.0     Northwest
Alissa Pudlitzke        10      Camas                 WA      126.9     Northwest
Megan Napier            12      Camas                 WA      118.0     Northwest
Maddie Woodson          9       Camas                 WA      117.0     Northwest
Camille Parson          12      Camas                 WA      111.5     Northwest
McKenzie Good           11      Camas                 WA      90.5      Northwest
Alexa Jones             9       Camas                 WA      85.0      Northwest

Kelcy Welch             11      Carmel                IN      128.0     Midwest
Haley Harris            10      Carmel                IN      127.5     Midwest
Gina Genco              11      Carmel                IN      127.0     Midwest
Ellen Schmitz           12      Carmel                IN      121.2     Midwest
Kelsey Harris           10      Carmel                IN      120.5     Midwest
Anna Schmitz            10      Carmel                IN      114.5     Midwest
Samantha Dauby          11      Carmel                IN      112.5     Midwest

Josie Brown             10      Coeur D'Alene         ID      129.0     Northwest
Kara Story              10      Coeur D'Alene         ID      128.0     Northwest
Punky Duran             12      Coeur D'Alene         ID      126.5     Northwest
Emily Callahan          9       Coeur D'Alene         ID      125.8     Northwest
Krista Story            10      Coeur D'Alene         ID      119.5     Northwest
Noelle Ball             11      Coeur D'Alene         ID      97.9      Northwest
Clare Dumont            10      Coeur D'Alene         ID      90.2      Northwest

Shea Martinez           12      Davis                 UT      137.4     Southwest
Ellie Child             12      Davis                 UT      135.1     Southwest
Taylor Cox              11      Davis                 UT      121.0     Southwest
Kenzie Weir             11      Davis                 UT      119.8     Southwest
Kami Dixon              12      Davis                 UT      115.0     Southwest
Joanna Boyd             12      Davis                 UT      114.0     Southwest
Mikell Wood             12      Davis                 UT      108.0     Southwest

Danielle Anderson       12      Eagan                 MN      138.0     Heartland
Raissa Hansen           10      Eagan                 MN      114.2     Heartland
Karina Johnson          10      Eagan                 MN      114.0     Heartland
Kelli Praska            10      Eagan                 MN      109.2     Heartland
Anna Van Wyk            10      Eagan                 MN      108.9     Heartland
Olivia Mitchell         9       Eagan                 MN      100.6     Heartland
Elizabeth Frick         12      Eagan                 MN      99.0      Heartland

Marta McLaughlin        11      East Aurora           NY      132.1     New York
Madeline Murray         12      East Aurora           NY      130.2     New York
Megan Baritot           12      East Aurora           NY      121.2     New York
MacKenzie Donahue       12      East Aurora           NY      121.2     New York
Fiona Danieu            9       East Aurora           NY      112.5     New York
Sidney Spaschak         11      East Aurora           NY      103.5     New York
Rebekah Zee             11      East Aurora           NY      96.0      New York

Alana Pearl             11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      138.6     New York
Annika Avery            10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      138.2     New York
Jillian Fanning         12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      135.1     New York
Katie Brislin           12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      133.5     New York
Mary Barger             10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      132.5     New York
Jenna Farrell           9       Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      128.3     New York
Michelle Duffy          12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      123.5     New York

Erin Hooker             12      Fort Collins          CO      138.0     Southwest
Devynn Miller           10      Fort Collins          CO      130.0     Southwest
Kari Van Zyl            11      Fort Collins          CO      120.5     Southwest
Audrey Oweimrin         11      Fort Collins          CO      119.0     Southwest
Heather Holt            10      Fort Collins          CO      118.5     Southwest
Kiri Michell            10      Fort Collins          CO      115.5     Southwest
Sherena Guild           11      Fort Collins          CO      102.0     Southwest

Ashley Helbig           11      Great Oak             CA      135.1     California
Miranda Kewley          12      Great Oak             CA      134.4     California
Haley Dorris            11      Great Oak             CA      130.1     California
Christian Calain        11      Great Oak             CA      129.1     California
Maiya Larsen            10      Great Oak             CA      126.2     California
Kim Mcnamee             12      Great Oak             CA      115.1     California
Alexis Messerly         12      Great Oak             CA      115.0     California

Elly DeTurris           10      Naperville North      IL      132.0     Midwest
Maria McDaniel          11      Naperville North      IL      127.8     Midwest
Judy Pendergast         9       Naperville North      IL      125.0     Midwest
Kate Shannon            9       Naperville North      IL      119.0     Midwest
Kimber Meyer            12      Naperville North      IL      118.2     Midwest
Jenny Smith             10      Naperville North      IL      111.0     Midwest
Grace Carballo          12      Naperville North      IL      106.1     Midwest

Courtney Ackerman       12      New Trier             IL      145.0     Midwest
Mimi Smith              10      New Trier             IL      133.3     Midwest
Jessica Ackerman        12      New Trier             IL      127.5     Midwest
Oona Jung-Beeman        9       New Trier             IL      111.0     Midwest
Kathleen Kene           12      New Trier             IL      110.0     Midwest
Kelli Schmidt           9       New Trier             IL      102.5     Midwest
Kaitlin Frei            11      New Trier             IL      100.0     Midwest

Maddie Sauer            9       Pennsbury             PA      134.5     Northeast
Sara Sargent            12      Pennsbury             PA      132.1     Northeast
Olivia Sargent          9       Pennsbury             PA      127.5     Northeast
Hannah Molloy           9       Pennsbury             PA      125.5     Northeast
Erica Gray              11      Pennsbury             PA      118.4     Northeast
Erin O'Connell          10      Pennsbury             PA      115.2     Northeast
Bailey Balmer           9       Pennsbury             PA      110.3     Northeast

Heather Bates           12      Pine Creek            CO      144.0     Southwest
Katherine Sered         11      Pine Creek            CO      125.1     Southwest
Gabrielle Sered         11      Pine Creek            CO      125.0     Southwest
Kaleigh Kroeker         10      Pine Creek            CO      123.5     Southwest
Veronica Carriedo       12      Pine Creek            CO      109.5     Southwest
Natalie Kalin           10      Pine Creek            CO      103.7     Southwest
Madelyn Baron           11      Pine Creek            CO      80.0      Southwest

Taylor Driscoll         12      Saratoga              NY      147.0     New York
Olivia Morrow           9       Saratoga              NY      135.1     New York
Keelin Hollowood        12      Saratoga              NY      134.5     New York
Sarah Morin             11      Saratoga              NY      121.6     New York
Spencer Hayes           10      Saratoga              NY      120.1     New York
Maddie Samuell          12      Saratoga              NY      110.2     New York
Shania Hayward          11      Saratoga              NY      107.0     New York

Samantha Ortega         10      Saugus                CA      139.5     California
Abigail Frankian        11      Saugus                CA      124.6     California
Heidi Hoslet            12      Saugus                CA      122.0     California
Katie Huntington        12      Saugus                CA      117.0     California
Olivia Altieri          12      Saugus                CA      113.0     California
Nina Sassano            12      Saugus                CA      109.0     California
Darby Laplant           10      Saugus                CA      103.5     California

Courtney Kriegshauser   12      Southlake Carroll     TX      139.0     South
Elena Arriaza           12      Southlake Carroll     TX      134.1     South
Antigone Archer         9       Southlake Carroll     TX      131.0     South
Shelby Chapin           12      Southlake Carroll     TX      129.5     South
Katie Burnham           11      Southlake Carroll     TX      123.0     South
Maddie Keen             10      Southlake Carroll     TX      113.9     South
Taylor Ullmann          11      Southlake Carroll     TX      104.9     South

Lauren Larocco          11      St. Francis           CA      130.0     California
Peyton Bilo             10      St. Francis           CA      122.6     California
Madison Rawson          11      St. Francis           CA      122.1     California
Eleanor Ferguson        12      St. Francis           CA      120.5     California
Miranda Myers           10      St. Francis           CA      118.7     California
Allison Klas            12      St. Francis           CA      102.5     California
Kim Lackner             12      St. Francis           CA      90.5      California

Reagan Anderson         12      Tatnall               DE      137.0     Southeast
Julie Williams          12      Tatnall               DE      129.8     Southeast
Kieran Hanrahan         10      Tatnall               DE      127.5     Southeast
Rebecca Salter          12      Tatnall               DE      124.0     Southeast
Caroline Foley          8       Tatnall               DE      118.5     Southeast
Quinn Teklits           8       Tatnall               DE      111.0     Southeast
Amy Gaito               12      Tatnall               DE      100.0     Southeast

Madi McLellan           11      The Woodlands         TX      140.0     South
Ashley Guidot           12      The Woodlands         TX      125.8     South
Grace Huryn             12      The Woodlands         TX      115.5     South
Katie Willard           12      The Woodlands         TX      115.0     South
Abbey Piontek           10      The Woodlands         TX      114.6     South
Kara Zuspan             11      The Woodlands         TX      112.0     South
Anna Lyons              11      The Woodlands         TX      96.6      South

Nisa Cicitta            12      Voorhees              NJ      135.5     Northeast
Clarissa Modde          11      Voorhees              NJ      133.3     Northeast
Erin Seiffert           12      Voorhees              NJ      117.8     Northeast
Shannon Carney          12      Voorhees              NJ      113.1     Northeast
Erin McLaughlin         10      Voorhees              NJ      112.0     Northeast
Meaghan Driscoll        10      Voorhees              NJ      106.0     Northeast
Kristen Erickson        12      Voorhees              NJ      104.0     Northeast

Anna French             10      Wayzata               MN      142.0     Heartland
Michaela Keller-Miller  9       Wayzata               MN      122.5     Heartland
Annika Halverson        11      Wayzata               MN      121.5     Heartland
Annika Lerdall          8       Wayzata               MN      115.0     Heartland
Mary Franke             11      Wayzata               MN      110.5     Heartland
Mackenzie Keller-Miller 11      Wayzata               MN      105.3     Heartland
McKenna Evans           11      Wayzata               MN      92.5      Heartland