Footlocker Nationals - 2003 Preview

The table below lists some projected team scores ... These team scores are based solely on how fast the eight qualifiers from each region have run cross country races this season ... I augmented the regional results (shown below) with other results and ran a few simulations ... NOTE: there are large uncertainties in the statistics; therefore, I have little faith in the median scores ... at best, the median scores show a statistical "point spread" between the teams ... the Score Range shows a typical high and low score from simulations ... but again, the uncertainty of data going into the simulations makes the results uncertain.

Here's another reason for uncertainty in the team scores ... the runners from all four regions are actually quite close in terms of speed ... for example, most of the boys appear to be within 15 to 18 seconds of each other (how fast they typically run XC races compared to the other qualifiers) - for XC races, that's not much of a difference ... As an analogy, consider a 3200 meter track race with 32 runners and most of them have seed-times within 10-12 seconds of each other (obviously wide open for scoring positions).

Speed is only one factor in competing well at Footlocker Nationals ... the Morley Field course, the weather, and the ability to compete well against other elite runners are important factors ... I watched the FoxSports Net video of last year's race a number of times - It seems the "The Hill" is a very important factor in this race - Zoe Nelson took the lead and extended her lead by running "The Hill" very strongly (both up the steep and down) ... the boy's winner Chris Solinsky attributed his ability to run "The Hill" as an advantage over his competitors.

I do not know the runners well enough to predict how well most can run "The Hill" ... The only runner I know for certain who should be helped by "The Hill" is Lopez Lomong - Lopez is a very strong runner and excels on steep hills (the steeper the better) - at Sunken Meadows, Lopez used "Cardiac Hill" to his advantage to win States (Class C) in 2002 - Lopez shattered course records at the very hilly South Lewis and Marathon courses.

Boys Teams ... The Northeast team appears to have an overall speed advantage on the other teams ... the Midwest boys have shown nearly equal ability ... the West boys are also close and should have a "home-course" advantage ... it won't surprise me if any of those three teams win the team title.

Girls Teams ... The Midwest girls team appears very strong this year ... Last year, the Northeast girls looked dominant entering the race (and were dominant, even with a sick Ari Lambie) ... This year, the Northeast and West look very closely matched.

 

        Projected Team Scores
       -------------------------------

         Boys Team    Score Range   Median Score    ACTUAL Score
         =========    ===========   ============    ============
         Northeast       33-57           39             55
         Midwest         33-57           43             36
         West            44-69           53             39
         South           72-102          90             85


         Girls Team   Score Range   Median Score    ACTUAL Score
         ==========   ===========   ============    ============
         Midwest         32-49           36             26
         West            40-64           51             57
         Northeast       41-66           52             65
         South           85-120          98             85  

Individual Girls Race ... Zoe Nelson (West) returns as the defending Footlocker Champion - Zoe is undefeated again this year and is obviously one of the pre-race favorites ... last year, Ari Lambie entered Nationals with the fastest XC performances, but did not run well due to illness ... however, Zoe Nelson ran so well last year, she probably would have won anyway ... This year, Nicole Blood (Northeast) enters as the fastest XC performer - Nicole finished 9th last year, but was hampered by a severe head cold ... Nicole's win at the Northeast regional was impressive in terms of speed and how easily she did it ... Katelyn Kaltenbach (Midwest) has been running very fast and appears stronger than last year (a definite contender to win) ... Jennifer Barringer (South) and several others have also shown contending speed.

The tables below list the corresponding speed rating for each qualifier at the Northeast, Midwest, South and West Footlocker regional.

How the comparison was done ... I determined the relative speed of each regional race (boys and girls separately) using primarily graphical solutions ... This is accomplished by plotting actual race times versus finishing places - the raw data is then processed with statistical scaling and data smoothing ... Two representative graphs are shown below (one boy's and one girl's) - I used a number of other graphs in addition to these, but these two graphs illustrate the solution (they consider just the top 75 finishers in each races ... the red lines on the graphs are hand-drawn and only approximate the exact location).

It is obvious from the graphs that the overall race times of the Northeast races (and West races) were slower than the Midwest which were slower than the South ... as explained previously, if you can identify sections of graphs that contain groups of runners of approximate equal ability, then you can approximate how fast one race is compared to another ... the best group for comparison is usually the "mid-level" (average) group of runners ... For this Footlocker comparison, I used both mid-level and the above-average groups ... I assumed the ability of these groups is approximately equal in all regions of the nation ...

This is important ... I excluded all Footlocker qualifiers from the comparison ... the best way to determine how fast the elite runners ran is to determine how fast the other runners ran compared to each other.

Actual Comparison Numbers ... for the Boys - the Midwest race was 13 seconds faster (on average) than the Northeast race ... the Midwest race was 45 seconds faster (on average) than the Northeast race ... the West race was 5 seconds slower than the Northeast ... for the Girls - the Midwest race was 29 seconds faster (on average) than the Northeast race ... the Midwest race was 41 seconds faster (on average) than the Northeast race ... The Northeast and West races were very close (the Northeast race was about 2 seconds slower) ... So what does this mean? - To make the races equivalent, I added 13 seconds the Midwest boys and 45 seconds to the South boys, and subtracted 5 seconds from the West boys ... The Midwest, South and West girl's race times were adjusted by adding 29, 41 and 2 seconds, respectively ... The adjusted times were then converted to speed ratings as listed below.

Please Realize - the speed ratings are for one race only and must be considered in context ... for example, seven of the eight Northeast boy's qualifiers had their best-ever speed rating at qualifiers - it would be unusual if they can duplicate or exceed that at Nationals (but who knows?) - the Northeast race was highly competitive with only 8 seconds separating the qualifiers ... To be honest, I was surprised how well the Northeast boys compared to the Midwest, so I re-evaluated the estimates several times (and they appear correct) ... Also realize - a speed rating only tells you how fast somebody ran compared to others for that race; it does not tell you how fast somebody can run in the future - at least one Midwest runner (Bradley Harkrader) has run faster than his Footlocker MW race.

 
    
 Boys Comparison of the Regional Races

 Footlocker-Northeast (11-29-2003)
 =================================
  1  Benjamin True       12    Greely          ME   15:22.8     204.4
  2  Victor Gras         12    Belmont         MA   15:25.1     203.6
  3  Gavin Coombs        12    Griswold        CT   15:27.9     202.7
  4  Joshua McDougal     12    Peru            NY   15:28.6     202.5
  5  Cory Thorne         11    Portsmouth      NH   15:29.7     202.1
  6  Lopez Lomong        12    Tully           NY   15:30.0     202.0
  7  Jonathan Anderson   12    Cinnaminson     NJ   15:30.4     201.9
  8  Ahmed Haji          12    Conard          CT   15:30.9     201.7



 Footlocker-Midwest (11-29-2003)
 ===============================
  1  Matthew Withrow     12    Tinley Park     IL   14:54.0     209.7
  2  Ryan Deak           12    Aurora          CO   15:14.0     203.0
  3  Garrett Heath       12    Winona          MN   15:15.0     202.7
  4  Bradley Harkrader   12    Westminster     CO   15:19.0     201.3
  5  Neal Naughton       12    Walled Lake     MI   15:23.0     200.0
  6  Christian Wagner    12    Columbus        IN   15:26.0     199.0
  7  Ryan Gasper         11    Fort Atkinson   WI   15:26.0     199.0
  8  Justin Switzer      11    Waterford       MI   15:26.0     199.0


 Footlocker-South (11-29-2003)
 =============================
  1  Brian Sullivan      12    Spring          TX   14:46.0     201.7
  2  Erik Stanley        12    Spring          TX   14:48.0     201.0
  3  James Strang        12    Signal Mountain TN   14:51.0     200.0
  4  Scott MacPherson    11    Plano           TX   14:56.0     198.3
  5  Andrew Bumbalough   11    Brentwood       TN   14:58.0     197.7
  6  Eric Mack           12    Winston Salem   NC   14:59.0     197.3
  7  Nicholas Hutchins   12    Raleigh         NC   15:02.0     196.3
  8  Kyle Miller         12    Katy            TX   15:02.0     196.3


 Footlocker-West (12-6-2003)
 ===========================
  1  Shadrack Kiptoo     12    La Cueva        NM   15:32.0     203.0
  2  Mohamed Trafeh      12    Duarte          CA   15:35.0     202.0
  3  Galen Rupp          12    Cen Catholic    OR   15:37.0     201.3
  4  Stuart Eagon        12    Portland        OR   15:38.0     201.0
  5  Evan Garber         12    Spokane         WA   15:42.0     199.7
  6  Mark Matusak        11    Loyola-LA       CA   15:44.0     199.0
  7  Alex Dunn           12    Santa Cruz      CA   15:45.0     198.7
  8  Tom Wyatt           12    Tacoma          WA   15:46.0     198.3
    

 
(for Northeast Boys profiles, see ... [Footlocker Northeast Preview])

Profiles for Selected Top Boys Runners:

Shadrack Kiptoo      12   La Cueva NM        Footlocker-West         12/6/2003    1   15:32.0   203
Shadrack Kiptoo      12   La Cueva NM        New Mex State-5A        11/8/2003    1   15:23.0   ---
Shadrack Kiptoo      12   La Cueva NM        NM District 2-5A        10/30/2003   1   16:07.0   ---
Shadrack Kiptoo      12   La Cueva NM        Albuquerque Champ       10/18/2003   1   15:21.0   205??
Shadrack Kiptoo      12   La Cueva NM        Lobo Invite-JV-5K         /  /2003   1   14:42.0   ---

   NOTE ... Other than Footlocker, the only speed rating shown for Kiptoo is uncertain!
            Sufficient results are not available to make ratings for his other races,
            but he appears very fast.

Galen Rupp           12   Cen Catholic OR    Footlocker-West         12/6/2003    3   15:37.0   201
Galen Rupp           12   Cen Catholic OR    Border Clash            11/23/2003   1   13:47.0   197
Galen Rupp           12   Cen Catholic OR    Oregon States-4A        11/1/2003    1   14:55.0   201
Galen Rupp           12   Cen Catholic OR    Nike Jim Danner         10/10/2003   1   15:06.7   ---
Galen Rupp           12   Cen Catholic OR    Mt Hood Conf-#1         9/19/2003    2   16:29.7   185??
Galen Rupp           11   Cen Catholic OR    Footlocker Nationals    12/14/2002   --    DNF     ---


Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       Footlocker-West         12/6/2003    6   15:44.0   199
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       Calif States-D2         11/29/2003   1   15:08.0   200
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       CIF SS Finals-II        11/22/2003   1   14:47.0   ---
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       CA Southern Sec         11/15/2003   1   15:11.0   ---
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       Mt. Sac Invite          10/25/2003   1   14:33.0   ---
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       Santa Clarita Inv       10/18/2003   1   14:40.0   195??
Mark Matusak         11   Loyola-LA CA       Mt Carmel Inv-Jr        9/20/2003    1   15:06.6   ---


Mohamed Trafeh       12   Duarte CA          Footlocker-West         12/6/2003    2   15:35.0   202
Mohamed Trafeh       12   Duarte CA          Calif States-D4         11/29/2003   1   15:16.0   198
Mohamed Trafeh       12   Duarte CA          Mt. Sac Invite          10/25/2003   2   14:38.0   ---
Mohamed Trafeh       12   Duarte CA          Footlocker Nationals    12/14/2002   7   15:14.8   201


Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Footlocker-Midwest      11/29/2003   2   15:14.0   203
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Flor All-Comers 3200m   11/22/2003   1   8:51.7    ---
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Colo States-5A          10/25/2003   2   15:04.0   200
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Colo Regional-5A-N      10/17/2003   1   15:56.5   ---
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Great Amer-Seeded       9/27/2003    1   15:26.0   200
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Liberty Bell Inv        9/12/2003    1   14:58.4   203
Ryan Deak            12   Aurora CO          Pat Pattebn Invite      8/29/2003    1   15:48.0   ---
Ryan Deak            11   ------ FL          Footlocker Nationals    12/14/2002   12  15:20.3   199


Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Footlocker-Midwest      11/29/2003   1   14:54.0   210
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Illinois States-2A      11/8/2003    1   14:14.0   201
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Illinois Sectionals     11/1/2003    1   14:32.0   ---
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Illinois Regionals      10/25/2003   1   15:08.0   ---
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Rich Central Inv        10/11/2003   1   14:41.0   ---
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Tinley Park Inv         9/27/2003    1   14:42.0   ---
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Peoria Notre D Inv      9/20/2003    1   14:19.0   199
Matthew Withrow      12   Tinley Park IL     Reavis Invite           9/13/2003    1   14:57.0   ---


Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          Footlocker-Midwest      11/29/2003   3   15:15.0   203
Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          Minn States-2A          11/1/2003    1   15:12.0   197
Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          Minn AA Sections        10/23/2003   1   15:22.0   ---
Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          Minn Big 9 Conf         10/14/2003   1   15:17.0   193
Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          EV Berg Boys Inv        10/2/2003    1   15:25.0   194
Garrett Heath        12   Winona MN          Roy Griak Invite        9/27/2003    1   15:34.3   192
Garrett Heath        11   Winona MN          Footlocker Nationals    12/14/2002   6   15:14.5   201


Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Footlocker-Midwest      11/29/2003   4   15:19.0   201
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Colo States-5A          10/25/2003   1   14:49.4   205
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Colo Regional-5A-S      10/17/2003   1   16:46.0   ---
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Front Range-Lg          10/10/2003   1   15:34.0   ---
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Andy Meyers Inv         10/3/2003    1   15:56.0   ---
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Sweetheart Inv          9/26/2003    1   15:26.0   ---
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Liberty Bell Inv        9/12/2003    2   15:10.1   199
Bradley Harkrader    12   Westminster CO     Harrison Inv            8/29/2003    1   15:49.0   ---


Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Footlocker-South        11/29/2003   1   14:46.0   202
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Texas States-5A         11/15/2003   2   15:20.0   193
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Texas Region 2          11/8/2003    2   14:56.8   191
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   TX Districts-15-5A      10/31/2003   1   15:41.0   ---
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Sam Houston Inv         10/18/2003   2   15:44.0   191
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Great Amer-ROC          9/27/2003    3   15:50.8   192
Brian Sullivan       12   The Woodlands TX   Texas A&M Invite        9/20/2003    3   15:22.0   190
Brian Sullivan       11   The Woodlands TX   Footlocker Nationals    12/14/2002   31  16:19.7   179

    

The Midwest Girl's team looks fairly strong based solely on the qualifier (definitely stronger overall than last year).

The individual race will likely involve Nicole Blood, Zoe Nelson, Katelyn Kaltenbach and Jennifer Barringer ... performance profiles of all four as shown below the graph ... Nicole Blood has the best speed rating (a sensational performance at Footlocker qualifiers), but the other runners are very close.

 

 Girls Comparison of the Regional Races

 Footlocker-Northeast (11-29-2003)
 =================================
  1  Nicole Blood        10    Saratoga        NY   17:44.7     162.8
  2  Brittany Sedberry   10    Ocean City      NJ   18:16.4     152.2
  3  Aislinn Ryan        10    Warwick         NY   18:21.0     150.7
  4  Lindsey Ferguson    10    Saratoga        NY   18:23.9     149.7
  5  Frances Koons       12    Allentown CC    PA   18:24.7     149.4
  6  Lindsay Donaldson   12    Lincoln-Sud     MA   18:25.4     149.2
  7  Jennifer Clausen    10    Jackson Mem     NJ   18:26.1     149.0
  8  Allison Kieffer     11    West Islip      NY   18:26.7     148.8


 Footlocker-Midwest (11-29-2003)
 ===============================
  1  Katelyn Kaltenbach  11    Aurora          CO   17:29.0     158.3
  2  Ramsey Kavan        11    Yankton         SD   17:34.0     156.7
  3  Sunni Olding        12    Minster         OH   17:35.0     156.3
  4  Racheal Marchand    12    Valparaiso      IN   17:43.0     153.7
  5  Morgan Schulz       11    Aurora          CO   17:51.0     151.0
  6  Katie Harrington    12    Carmel          IN   17:51.0     151.0
  7  Alissa McKaig       12    New Haven       IN   17:52.0     150.7
  8  Amber Warren        11    St. Charles     MO   17:53.0     150.3


 Footlocker-South (11-29-2003)
 =============================
  1  Jennifer Barringer  11    Oviedo          FL   17:27.0     155.0
  2  Angelina Blackmon   12    Rock Hill       SC   17:42.0     150.0
  3  Erin Bedell         11    Plano           TX   17:47.0     148.3
  4  Kate Niehaus        10    Columbia        SC   17:49.0     147.7
  5  Madonna Schueler    12    Louisville      KY   17:50.0     147.3
  6  Rachael Forish      12    Arlington       TX   17:50.0     147.3
  7  Laura Bowerman      12    Tampa           FL   17:53.0     146.3
  8  Beth Fahey          12    Dumfries        VA   17:54.0     146.0
  

 Footlocker-West (12-6-2003)
 ===========================
  1  Zoe Nelson          11    Kalispell       MT   18:07.0     154.7
  2  Lindsay Flacks      12    Calabasas       CA   18:09.0     154.0
  3  Collie Lawrence     12    Reno            NV   18:18.0     151.0
  4  Marie Lawrence      9     Reno            NV   18:19.0     150.7
  5  Melissa Grelli      12    Cupertino       CA   18:19.0     150.7
  6  Liza Pasciuto       12    Murrieta        CA   18:24.0     149.0
  7  Clair Rethmeier     12    Escondido       CA   18:27.0     148.0
  8  Rachel Bryan        12    Elk Grove       CA   18:29.0     147.3
  

 

Some Performances of the Top Girls
==================================

Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       Footlocker West         12/6/2003    1   18:07.0   155
Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       Montana States          10/18/2003   1   17:35.4   156
Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       9th Mtn W Classic       9/27/2003    1   17:02.3   152??
Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       Great Falls Invite      9/12/2003    1   17:41.7   158
Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       Flathead Invite         9/6/2003     1   18:12.0   155
Zoe Nelson           11   Kalispell MT       Libby Invite            8/29/2003    1   17:21.0   ---
Zoe Nelson           10   Kalispell MT       Footlocker Finals       12/14/2002   1   17:30.0   160


Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     Footlocker MidWest      11/29/2003   1   17:29.0   158
Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     CO States-5A            10/25/2003   1   17:24.5   152
Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     CO So Regional-5A       10/17/2003   1   18:35.7   ---
Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     Great Amer-Seeded       9/27/2003    1   18:04.9   152
Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     Liberty Bell Inv        9/12/2003    1   17:42.2   155
Katelyn Kaltenbach   11   Smoky Hills CO     Pat Patten Inv          8/29/2003    1   18:22.0   ---
Katelyn Kaltenbach   10   Smoky Hills CO     Footlocker Finals       12/14/2002   7   17:50.9   153


Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Footlocker NE-Ch        11/29/2003   1   17:44.7   163
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Federation Champ        11/15/2003   1   17:57.9   159
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           NY States-Class A       11/8/2003    1   18:28.7   154
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Section 2-Class A       10/31/2003   1   17:13.0   150
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Suburban Council        10/25/2003   1   17:04.9   152
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Brown Univ-Champ        10/18/2003   1   16:52.3   159
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Manhattan-Champ         10/11/2003   1   14:17.8   152
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Great Amer-ROC          9/27/2003    1   18:08.8   151
Nicole Blood         10   Saratoga           Warwick XC Mania        9/13/2003    1   17:37.9   148
Nicole Blood         9    Saratoga           Footlocker Finals       12/14/2002   9   17:52.0   153
Nicole Blood         9    Saratoga           Footlocker NE-Ch        11/30/2002   2   17:48.0   159


Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          Footlocker South        11/29/2003   1   17:27.0   155
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          Flor All-Comers 3200m   11/22/2003   1   10:18.8   ---
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          Flor State-4A           11/8/2003    1   16:55.0   159
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          FHSAA-4A-Region 1       11/1/2003    1   17:39.0   ---
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          FHSAA-4A-District 1     10/25/2003   1   17:51.0   ---
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          FLrunners-ROChamp       10/4/2003    1   17:23.5   153
Jennifer Barringer   11   Oviedo FL          Great Amer-Seeded       9/27/2003    2   18:05.3   152