• What good are Pre-Season Rankings?
•  ... Useful in gathering background information for the upcoming season
•  ... Topic of conversion during the summer
•  ... Not used for any rankings once the season starts
• Pre-Season Team Ranking Problems:
•  ... Based largely on last year's XC results
•  ... Some runners improve significantly or lose interest
•  ... Some runners quit or transfer
•  ... One runner can have a big impact on team score (plus or minus)
•  ... Unknowns - Requires some subjective "guessing" by me.
•  ... If data for 5 runners on a team was not available or guess-able, team likely excluded

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested.

                  Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2017

         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 40 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Burnt Hills             100      (02-B )
    2    Fayetteville-Manlius    130      (03-A )
    3    Saratoga                200      (02-A )
    4    Smithtown               240      (11-A )
    5    Corning                 245      (04-A )
    6    Shenendehowa            280      (02-A )
    7    Clarence                355      (06-A )
    8    Guilderland             385      (02-A )
    9    St. Anthony's           390      (CHSAA)
    10   Baldwinsville           415      (03-A )
    11   Liverpool               420      (03-A )
    12   Arlington               465      (01-A )
    13   Pearl River             470      (01-B )
    14   Irondequoit             480      (05-A )
    15   Trinity School          510      (AIS  )
    16   Brooklyn Tech           520      (PSAL )
    17   Frontier                565      (06-A )
    18   Mount Academy           565      (09-B )
    19   Washingtonville         570      (09-A )
    20   Ward Melville           575      (11-A )
    21   Monroe-Woodbury         595      (09-A )
    22   Cornwall                600      (09-B )
    23   Sachem North            610      (11-A )
    24   Northport               620      (11-A )
    25   Shaker                  630      (02-A )
    26   Syosset                 635      (08-A )
    27   McQuaid                 635      (05-A )
    28   Fairport                640      (05-A )
    29   Churchville             650      (05-A )
    30   Xavier                  655      (CHS  )
    31   Ithaca                  665      (04-A )
    32   Penfield                670      (05-A )
    33   Beaver River            675      (03-D )
    34   Monsignor Farrell       700      (CHSAA)
    35   Chaminade               715      (CHSAA)
    36   Pine Bush               720      (09-A )
    37   Archbishop Molloy       730      (CHSAA)
    38   Pittsford Mendon        760      (05-B )
    39   Iona Prep               770      (CHSAA)
    40   James O'Neill           790      (09-C )

• Where did the scores come from?
•  ... 2017 Seasonal Speed Ratings
•  ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
•  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
•  
• Uncertainty Factors
•  ... Ability of a team to "reload" after significant loses (graduation, transfer, etc)
•  ... Impact of new runners ... my term for this is "New Blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc)
•  ... Will returning runners improve??
•  ... Team Depth ... Impact of Injury or Illness
•  ... Impact of runners who decide to quit

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 30 teams to show some depth.

In General ... Similar to other pre-seasons, I see uncertainty in the team scores posted above ... Pre-season projections are often made with limited knowledge (or no knowledge) of incoming impact runners such as transfers (from other sports or other schools) or significantly improved runners from the previous year ... It requires guessing.

Like last year, Burnt Hills enters the 2018 XC season as the top-rated team in NY ... Burnt Hills is the only team in NY with four returning runners having overall speed ratings in 170s or higher (see Class B speed ratings below) ... Last year, Burnt Hills finished 1st at Federations and 3rd at the NXN Regional ... they return 6 of their top 7 runners ... the NXN Regional was not their best race (may have been compromised by some team sickness).

Fayetteville-Manlius graduated their #2 and #5 runners from NXN Nationals, but don't be surprised in FM reloads and becomes a contender for the win at the NXN Regional.

One or two new impact runners could make a big difference for a bunch of teams ... Should be interesting to watch the development throughout the XC season.

Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Fayetteville-Manlius     90      (03-A )
    2    Saratoga                150      (02-A )
    3    Smithtown               160      (11-A )
    4    Corning                 170      (04-A )
    5    Shenendehowa            195      (02-A )
    6    Clarence                240      (06-A )
    7    Guilderland             255      (02-A )
    8    Baldwinsville           280      (03-A )
    9    Arlington               310      (01-A )
    10   Irondequoit             320      (05-A )
    11   Liverpool               325      (03-A )
    12   Frontier                375      (06-A )
    13   Washingtonville         380      (09-A )
    14   Ward Melville           385      (11-A )
    15   Monroe-Woodbury         400      (09-A )
    16   Sachem North            405      (11-A )
    17   Northport               415      (11-A )
    18   McQuaid                 420      (05-A )
    19   Shaker                  420      (02-A )
    20   Syosset                 425      (08-A )
    21   Fairport                430      (05-A )
    22   Churchville             435      (05-A )
    23   Ithaca                  445      (04-A )
    24   Penfield                450      (05-A )
    25   Pine Bush               465      (09-A )

Corning beat Fayetteville-Manlius by 2 points at States last year ... But Fayetteville-Manlius reversed that outcome at the NXN Regional with a 50-98 advantage over Corning ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd at NXN Nationals and Corning was 12th ... Both teams lose two runners to graduation.

Saratoga returns their top 5 runners from sectionals and Smithtown returns 5 of 7 runners from States.

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2017
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Fayetteville-Manlius
  Garrett Brennan       12    187     184 191 180 174 138
  Geoff Howles          11    179     178 176 172 176 179 177 176 186
  Matthew Tripp         12    177     182 176 169 170 168 161 160 159
  Peyton Geehrer        10    163     169 105 169 170 168 170 152 164
  Sam Otis              12    160     157 141 149 161 169 172 169 167
  Eli Capri             12    158     160 157 133 146
  Max Perry             12    155     158 151 148 144 150

Saratoga
  Shea Weilbaker        12    185     179 186 178 185 189 186 185
  Aidan Waite           11    164     167 162 163 149 147
  Ezra Ruggles          12    164     163 161 163 157 167
  Anthony Verro         12    163     151 164 166 162 148
  Brady Tooker          10    157     158 140 162 145
  Christian Mercado     11    142     138 143 141 140 132
  Troy Prehn            11    137     136 138 135

Smithtown
  Nicholas DeFelice     12    172     169 165 177 175 169 161 168
  David Cabello         12    166     154 165 172 173 157 149 149
  John Cuff             12    166     164 166 169 167 161 150 158
  Aidan Kennedy         12    158     156 156 159 158 158 152 157
  Nicholas Muellers     12    158     154 159 156 146 158
  Michael Danzi         11    151     140 142 158 159 155 137 144 147
  Robert Smith          11    148     144 149

Corning
  Torrey Jacobson-Evans 11    173     171 173 179 176 164 163 167 162 161 159
  Nathan Lawson         12    172     166 174 173 173 164 168 171 167 172 165
  Bryce Derick          12    172     174 159 167 171 166 179 180 147 170 167
  Camden Zaidel         12    157     157 152 154 161 157 159 162 146 153 157
  Brody Hayes Glick     12    149     150 144 141 143 135 155
  John Cleary           12    147     133 138 145 157 154 151 154 150 157 152
  Braden Hayes Glick    10    141     131 141 135 141 137 150 142

Shenendehowa
  Alex Hislop           12    171     170 173 169 163 169
  Odin Schaepkens       12    161     162 158 160 121 153
  Bryan Spence          11    160     161 160 157 148 148
  Greg Langone          12    160     160 157 159 147 160
  Matthew Vigilante     12    157     159 156 153 142 154
  Max Hoffman           12    157     154 157 152 148 163
  Aidan Hickey          11    155     153 159 149 148 144
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Burnt Hills              30      (02-B )      
    2    Pearl River             115      (01-B )      
    3    Mount Academy           130      (09-B )      
    4    Cornwall                170      (09-B )      
    5    Jamesville Dewitt       215      (03-B )      
    6    Manhasset               220      (08-B )      
    7    Pittsford Mendon        230      (05-B )      
    8    Owego                   245      (04-B )      
    9    New Hartford            250      (03-B )      
    10   Pioneer                 255      (06-B )      
    11   Batavia                 260      (05-B )      
    12   Goshen                  265      (09-B )      
    13   Lewiston-Porter         270      (06-B )      
    14   Pittsford Suth          285      (05-B )      
    15   Tappan Zee              290      (01-B )      
    16   Honeoye Falls-Lima      295      (05-B )      

Burnt Hills is the defending Class B champion again ... Burnt Hills is the top rated team in New York State (all classes) and will be nationally ranked ... they return 6 of their top 7 runners.

Mount Academy was the Class C Champion last year, but Section 9 moved them up the Class B this season ... Pearl River was 5th at States last year and return their top 5 runners from that race.

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2017
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Burnt Hills
  Tyler Berg            12    187     181 189 188 185 189 186 187 183 183 179 173
  Aidan Gillooley       12    184     168 188 186 184 186 185 178 171 178 163
  Evan Brennan          12    176     162 178 171 180 182 180 179 176 173 163
  David Metacarpa       11    172     169 162 172 167 181 175 170 178 167 162
  Nick Hunziker         12    162+     84 160 159 167 167 157 168 154
  Kevin Board           11    158     148 156 155 164 162 165 160 158 162 147
  Dante Ubriaco         11    152     146 154 152 140 153 148 141

Pearl River
  Patrick McCann        12    165     162 167 159 166 166 163 140
  Jack Reynolds         12    165     164 162 168 156 156 160 162
  Brian Mahoney         12    153     145 160 147 132 137 156 124
  Hugh Durcan           12    153     149 155 151 143 153 146
  Jimmy Hughes          12    152     140 154 154 151 154 147 150 145
  Owen Russell          12    145     147 144 138 141 146 131
  Daniel Petti          12    141     141

Mount Academy
  Travis Meier          11    164     162 163 162 167 160 161 165
  Tristan Moody         11    156     149 155 161 152 152 152 143 148
  Darren Baird          10    155     145 154 159 157 146 160 138 150
  Eric Zumpe            12    154     155 151 149 155 148 157 137
  Kent Thomson          12    144     143 140 149 136 130 137
  Fred Goodwin          10    141     121 143 141 144
  Nathan Goodwin        10    135     123 139 126 137

Cornwall
  Blaine Doyle          12    167     161 163 168 168 173 174 162 169 165 162
  Seth Bywater          12    163     157 159 169 165 157 164 160 152 157 153
  Billy Ormiston        12    152     148 144 155 145 153 159 152 115 151
  Jack Teague           12    151     107 151 159 159 161 159 155 153 152 152
  Jack Byrne            12    134     129 129 123 146 145 150 133 135 127 99
  Jeremy Small-Hawks    12    133     134 131 132 136 110 116 131
  Jimmy Byrne           11    130     133 121 128 117
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    James O'Neill           120      (09-C )
    2    Saranac Lake            135      (07-C )
    3    Hannibal                165      (03-C )
    4    Marcus Whitman          165      (05-C )
    5    Bronxville              195      (01-C )
    6    Dobbs Ferry             205      (01-C )
    7    Falconer                215      (06-C )
    8    Watkins Glen            220      (04-C )
    9    Pleasantville           250      (01-C )
    10   Westhill                255      (03-C )
    11   Newfane                 260      (06-C )
    12   Vernon-Verona-Sherrill  270      (03-C )
    13   Irvington               275      (01-C )
    14   Skaneateles             290      (03-C )
    15   Oneonta                 310      (04-C )
    16   Sullivan West           315      (09-C )
    17   Pawling                 325      (01-C )
    18   Jordan-Elbridge         350      (03-C )
    19   Peru                    355      (07-C )

Mount Academy was the Class C Champion last year, but Section 9 moved them up to Class B this season making this a very uncertain Class C to predict.

James O'Neill finished 2nd to Mount Academy at last year's Section 9 sectional meet and James O'Neill returns all 7 runners from that race ... Saranac Lake finished 5th at last year's Class C race, and return 5 of 7 runners ... Marcus Whitman was 4th at States last year and return 6 runners (but lose their top runner) ... Hannibal was 2nd at sectionals last year and return their top 7 runners.

This could be wide-open ... Very uncertain.

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2017
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
James O'Neill
  Tony Njoga            12    159     159 159 158 161 158 156 158 155
  Carl Tyce             12    152     147 156 151 155 148 127 144 144
  Ethan Christiansen    12    148     136 146 149 147 153 148
  Sam Miller            10    146     136 152 145 131 126
  Owen Bieger           12    135     131 133 139 134 125 132 128
  Davis Yoshitani       10    126     121 128 122
  Richard Gash          10    120     121 117

Saranac Lake
  Anderson Gray         12    159     153 156 163 158 159 140 157
  Micah McCulley        10    152     133 156 155 150 142 144
  James Catania         10    142     135 140 145 146 141 139
  Peter Fogarty         10    140     134 141
  Adam Hesseltine       12    135     125 136 139 135 127 117
  Jacob Alberga         12    131     130 134 126 128 122 111
  Tucker Jakobe         10    127     131 124 109 101

Hannibal
  Ben Dennison          12    163     160 159 164 165 163 162
  Patrick Hall          12    155     149 157 158 148 153 141 136
  Noah Kuc              11    140     141 141 134 138 141 131 127
  Dillon Plantz         11    139     143 139 134 129 130 111 123
  Zach Gombas           12    127     130 123 119 131 120 117 117
  Jacob Dennison        10    111     114 106 95 117 62 81
  Kenny Young           12    109     111 106 110 107 92 64

Marcus Whitman
  Aidan Royston         10    153     152 154 152 156 154 144 149 134
  Liam Prendergast      11    150     147 152 151 148 148 151 137 141
  Alex Lyons            12    141     140 146 136 129 133 122 131
  Kaden Kays            10    140     130 144
  Jake Abel             12    128     118 131
  Bryan Best            12    117     106 121

Bronxville
  Matt Rizzo            12    174     178 171 164 169 168 168 164 152
  Alex Rizzo            12    171     174 167 171 156 142 166 163
  Ashton Smith          12    140     142 131
  Tim McGrath           12    123     125 123 69 124 123
		

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Beaver River             70      (03-D )      
    2    Sauquoit Valley         110      (03-D )      
    3    Oakfield-Alabama        115      (05-D )      
    4    Maple Hill              115      (02-D )      
    5    Lake Placid             135      (07-D )      
    6    Maple Grove             145      (06-D )      
    7    Shelter Island          160      (11-D )      
    8    Oriskany                175      (03-D )      
    9    Delhi                   185      (04-D )      
    10   Notre Dame-Batavia      185      (05-D )      
    11   Duanesburg              205      (02-D )      

The impact of new runners (or newly motivated runners) could be really important and make a big difference.

As normal, there is a lot of uncertainty in the pre-season for many small school teams ... Which teams will develop the most over the course of the season is a guess.

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2017
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
Beaver River
  Colton Kempney        9     166     165 161 166 167 167 163 158 167 162 169
  Josiah Evan           11    154     143 157 149 149 164 155 148 157 146 147
  Cory Demo             10    149     121 152 151 157 157 153 141 140 152
  Dylan Williams        11    148     135 155 147 110 145 140 137 148 125 135
  Brayden Campeau       9     142     132 138 140 148 148 148 142 148 138
  Matt Moser            12    133     111 139 142 122 103 131 134 75 105
  Conrad Freed          10    131     135 130 121 120 119 122 106

Sauquoit Valley
  Austin Canaguier      12    153     155 156 151 150 133 127 124
  Michael Makuszak      10    146     149 145 139 133 144 123 130
  W. Slater Costantine  11    145     148 144 136 143 136 121 127
  Sean Kellum           10    133     134 133 134 129 130 120 118
  Zachary Ward          12    132     139 123 119 118 121 115 101
  Nathan Donlyuk        10    116     115 119 110 106 94
  Gabriel Davis         11    89      89 83 88 94 61 76

Oakfield-Alabama
  Kyle Mott             12    157     155 157 158 158 151 142
  Zack Hall             10    153     154 144
  Derek McIntire        10    145     150 135 138 123 139
  Mark Anauo            12    133     129 137 134 111 112 110
  Travis Wiedrich       10    125     124 125
  Dylan Maier           12    122     120 122 120
  Joey Burdick          11    114     113 115 102

Maple Hill
  Noah Albanese         11    157     148 158 159 157 158 157 149 153
  Nate Mannion          12    153     147 147 159 156 149 152 148 147
  Quinn Pratico         12    140     138 136 130 142 145 141 144 139
  Thatcher Deyoe        12    136     130 136 136 142 133 126 120 123
  Reese Steele          11    123     112 121 124 128 122
  Brayden Renslow       12    113     114 107
  Derek Rossetti        11    112     112

Lake Placid
  James Flanigan        11    149     137 156 144 143 145 132 139
  Jesse Izzo            12    149     148 146 151 145 147 137
  Kai Frantz            11    132     124 135 129 138 125 122 131
  Michael Skutt         11    131     128 134 128 133 123 108 127
  Van Ledger            10    128     118 131 128 122 115
  Anthony Gunnar        11    119     122 119 100 100
  Max Flanigan          9     117     117 119 111 97 47

Maple Grove
  Peter Auer            11    159     157 162 159 156 152 153 124
  Frank Colburn         12    154     156 153 150 148 153 135 141
  Nick Brunavaus        11    126     129 124 118 121 112
  Riley Auer            11    126     123 125 115 65 137 122 122
  Drew Kelemen          10    124     117 128 126 122 111 112 110
  Porter Demink         10    105     107 93 102
		

 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    St. Anthony's            85      (CHSAA)
    2    Trinity School          105      (AIS  )
    3    Brooklyn Tech           110      (PSAL )
    4    Xavier                  145      (CHSAA)
    5    Monsignor Farrell       150      (CHSAA)
    6    Chaminade               160      (CHSAA)
    7    Archbishop Molloy       170      (CHSAA)
    8    Iona Prep               190      (CHSAA)
    9    Bronx HS Sci            205      (PSAL )
    10   Regis                   215      (CHSAA)
    11   Collegiate              220      (AIS  )
    12   Hackley                 240      (AIS  )
    13   Susan Wagner            260      (PSAL )

St. Anthony's finished 2nd to Xavier at last year's CHSAA Championship, but Xavier graduated their top 5 runner from that race ... Trinity School was the NYSAIS Champion last year and return their top 5 runners from the Federation Meet.

Some CHSAA-AIS Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2016
                           ---------  -----------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Matthew Payamps       12    172+    140 171 172 172 144 133
  Brendan Dearie        12    169     169 168 170 163 165 170 160
  Michael Barbaro-Barnet12    158     156 161 156 154 159 141 151 150
  Philip Polo           12    151     154 146 147 141
  Hunter Vierling       12    150     146 148 151 144 151 152 152 150
  John Connolly         12    149     149 148
  Brennan Lopez         12    148     145 149 150 143 139 141

Trinity School
  Geordie Young         12    169     166 172 171 168 160 170 163 158 152
  Aydin Williams        12    161     160 161 164 158 156 158 141 135
  Stephen Andryc        12    155     157 153 156 148 142 156 134 139
  William Ketter-Sykes  11    150     141 151 151 154 122 134
  Andrew Kornfeld       12    149     148 144 155 142 136 148 136 133
  Jacob Cohen           11    127     125 127
  Eben Hess             11    123     117 105 130

Brooklyn Tech
  Evan Sherman          12    172     167 169 175 171 172 172 174 161
  Robert Straight       12    165     159 167 163 166 169 153 150
  Isaac Stamper         12    156     151 160 152 153 157 153 142 141
  Dylan Canalas         11    147     136 143 152 146 151 146 100 135
  Konstantin Van Schende12    145     137 147 146 146 144 142 136
  Astor Meredith-Goujon 12    139     128 143 139 123 134
  Merlin Beaufils       12    132     125 129 119 119 143 132 142

Xavier
  Oliver Branham-Upton  11    161     150 162 163 165 159
  Owen Hassler          10    159     155 156 160 158 163
  Ethan Rice            11    153     152 154 144 155 149 151
  Michael R. O'Brien    12    149     150 147 140 143 144
  Dylan Abernathy       12    135     135 135
  Conor Anderson        12    124     114 123 121 134

Monsignor Farrell
  Anthony Bentivegna    11    156     155 154 152 158 151 158 152 160
  Christopher Paxis     11    156     144 159 159 152 153 147 153
  Paul Paxis            12    149     149
  Andrew Rainbolt       12    149     147 143 154 147 141 134 141
  Joseph Devito         12    146     149 139 133
  Paul Siconoifi        11    137     130 138 136 141 131
  McCole Finn           12    131     131