| Speed Ratings
Speed ratings are a measure of how fast somebody
has run in the past ... an individual speed rating is simply an
adjusted race time that somebody ran in a particular race ... It does
not forecast the future, it measures the past (just like an individual
time from a track meet) ... Speed ratings may be used as factors to
predict the future, but that requires human interpretation known as
handicapping.
Nike Cross Country Nationals is like the
Kentucky Derby (the best runners of a certain age from around the
nation meet to determine a champion) ... Unfortunately for us "Speed
Figure maniacs" ,
experience has shown that speed figures do not work as well at many
national-caliber horse races as they do in more local situations ...
they still work OK, but other handicapping factors must be considered
before wagering the rent money.
When predicting XC races with speed ratings alone,
I view speed ratings in this context ... Speed Ratings are analogous
to Seed Times in Track & Field ... Seed times in post-season track
meets generally work OK; they are not perfect, but seed times work
decently for the intended purpose ... It’s a legitimate method of
developing a "Morning Line" for track meets ... I believe the same can
be said for speed ratings in XC.
Speed Ratings & Track Seed Times
At the bottom of this page are three tables that illustrates the
effectiveness of speed ratings and track seed times to
predict the finish positions at several meets:
(1) NTN Nationals 2004-2007
(2) NY Federation and NY State Class Meets in XC for 2008
(3) Nike Outdoor National (NON) Track Championships 2008
Comparing the first two tables (NTN and NY Feds/States), it is
obvious that the speed ratings do a better job predicting the NY
races than the NTN races ... It is also evident that the seed times
used at the NON track meet are similar in effectiveness compared to the
NTN speed ratings.
The question becomes - "Why is it
more difficult to predict the results of NTN (NXN) and Nike Outdoor
Nationals (and races such as the Kentucky Derby)??"
(1) For starters, these races are top
quality from top to bottom, and that makes a big difference for
handicapping purposes ... State meets around the country typically have
some elite teams, mid-level teams and lower-level teams that can be
separated by a variety of handicapping methods (speed ratings do a good
job in this separation process, and that makes the predicted results
quite accurate by comparison).
(2) The accuracy of speed ratings themselves is not as
good for some teams nationally as others because I do not follow many NXN-qualifying teams during
the course of the season (I briefly rate their State Meets, NXN Regional
Meet, and maybe a few other pertinent meets to get a basic overview of
their relative team speed).
(3) The high overall quality of NXN means that many teams are
very close in ability ... Trying to separate some of these
closely-matched teams is difficult (and statistically NOT possible with
any certainty) ... Yes - teams like the Fayetteville-Manlius and Saugus
Girls do separate themselves, but they are the exception ... When looking at
the NON track meet seeds - mere seconds or fractions of a second
separate many distance runners (that's a "too close to call" scenario).
(4) Even if speed ratings were 100% perfect (which they are
NOT), other handicapping factors (very relevant to NXN) affect team
performance which in turn affects team speed for many teams ... When
this happens, predictions from speed ratings alone are adversely
affected.
Nature of the Course
High school XC courses exist is many flavors
- flat, hilly, grass, dirt, rolling, easy, soft, hard, challenging,
open, wooded trails, sandy, dusty, wet and Portland Meadows
in December
... Portland Meadows in December is different than State
Championship Meet courses or NXN Regional qualifying courses ...
depending on your point-of-view, this can be either good or bad ... For
the New York teams it's been very good.
The old horse racing notion of "Horses for Courses" has been
demonstrated over-and-over ... It means some horses can simply race
better at certain tracks than others ... Years of horse racing
results have proven the following: (1) Many horses race
better on dirt than grass (or vice versa) ... Many champion horses on
the grass are only above average horses on the dirt (or vice versa) ...
Some horses can perform normally on the new synthetic poly-turf surfaces
and some can not. (2) Some horses are capable of running
in the mud and some are not ... A few horses perform exceptionally well
in the mud ... A few champion horses become "duds-in-the-mud".
Bottom-Line --> the nature of the course makes a difference
in how well many horses perform ... and the same can be said for
humans. In general, champion teams and runners will perform well
regardless of the XC course or conditions ... BUT that's "in general" and
does not apply to everybody.......
Here is my track & field analogy -
The runners attending the National Track Meet have been competing and
getting seed times on synthetic tracks ... HOWEVER, assume the National Meet is
being contested on an old cider track with a dirt base where it's been
raining for a week and the track is flooded and soft ... I agree
many top runners will still be top runners, but I also know
many runners are going to be affected ....... One scoring XC runner having
a bad race changes the team score (and we all know "Every Runner Counts" ).
Runners are commonly asked "How fast have you run??"
.... When handicapping NXN, I want to answer the question "How fast
can they run at Portland Meadows in December??"
How Do You Handicap the Course?? ... There is no way to quantify
it in predictions ... And predicting which teams will run well in the
Portland Meadow conditions is a guessing game (especially for
first-timers over the course) .... However, some teams have shown an
ability to run well at Portland Meadows in December (some repeatedly) -
These teams get extra consideration (and may get moved up in the speed
rating predictions).
Courses & Speed Ratings
Some teams and runners post higher speed ratings at specific courses.
Often, these are courses where they train or race frequently (but not
always) ... Sometimes higher ratings come at "speed courses", sometimes
at "strength courses" ... When seasonal ratings are available,
identifying this type of variation helps refine "which speed ratings
should be used in making the morning-line" ... I'm not a big believer in
using a team's best speed ratings, especially if it was an exceptional
team performance (exceptional performances are not the norm). NTN Observation --> Most teams will not equal or exceed
their speed ratings at NXN (compared to their ratings used to predict
NXN) ... their speed ratings at NXN will be generally lower ...
WHY?? - One reason is the "nature of the course" and the course
conditions ... the sticky mud and cold conditions at Portland Meadows
tends to "stretch the runners out" in terms of spacing between runners
for such a flat course (and that lowers the ratings for the runners that
get "stretched-out"). Form
Cycle Horses and humans have other similarities with
respect to racing ... Most experience a "form cycle" of some type that
includes (1) an improvement-phase [such as getting into shape], (2) a
peak-phase [at or near top performance potential; length of the phase
varies between individuals], and (3) a decline-phase where the runner
can no longer attain top performance levels [may be due to either
physical or mental factors]. Being able to predict when runners may
improve or have "off-performances" is a very important handicapping
factor ... Sometimes it is obvious, but it usually requires some
type of human judgment ... With respect to speed ratings, it means
manually raising or lowering individually "morning-line" ratings. With
respect to posted team score predictions (especially for NTN), I try NOT
to make significant changes in the actual "morning-line" speed ratings
(which basically come from recent performances) ... Occasionally a
"guess" is necessary when you know about an injury or sickness. Travel & Shipping
Many race horses are not stabled at the tracks where they race; they are
shipped in on horse trailers, some over long distances. Some
horses ship nicely over long distances; they get off the trailer,
warm-up and then race effectively ... Other horses do not ship well and
race poorly. During the XC season, I try to note various teams that go
on over-night trips to new courses (for them) and then compare their
speed ratings to their other ratings ... It is not uncommon for some
runners to have generally lower ratings on long trips or over-night
trips ... It's impossible to predict who will be affected, but it
happens enough to be a consideration. In addition to long distance
travel, NXN adds in a series of dinners, festivities and events for the
runners ... Somehow, I think this combination will adversely affect the
performance of some runners.
Trainers & Coaches Horse handicappers
commonly keep statistics on trainers and their success (or lack of
success) in specific races (or types of races) at various race tracks
... Some trainers are remarkably successful in certain situations (and
handicappers want to know that when betting the rent money). Likewise
in high school XC, certain teams and coaches have proven themselves
successful ... Proven success is an important handicapping
consideration. Conclusion
Speed ratings have been an effective tool in predicting NTN National
results in past years. However, the nature of NXN and the top-to-bottom quality of NXN
teams make it virtually impossible to predict team finishes and team
scores as accurately as State Meets or sectional meets within States.
Application of other handicapping factors may improve prediction.
However, the unique nature of NXN and the Portland Meadows course in
December presents handicappers with an "uncertain" betting scenario ....
If pari-mutuel wagering was allowed, I would love it .
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