|
Pre-Race Comments
...
All eleven years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line.
Great Oak CA is the clear
morning-line favorite based on recent performance ... Sandburg IL,
Hopkins MN, Dana Hills CA, and The Woodlands TX are
the next group of teams in the morning-line and are favorites in terms
of "making the podium" (finishing in the top three) ... However, half
the field has credentials to "make the podium" with a top seasonal
performance.
NXN Nationals is a special race because
all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this
race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish
at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish
that bad"
... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses
are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish
last than who will finish first.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Great Oak CA
... Great Oak had an excellent season-best performance at the
California State Meet ... If Great Oak can duplicate that
performance at Glendoveer Golf Course, they could win very handily and
score much lower than the projected score above ... The NXN Regional
team scores above show how much better the two California teams score
compared to all others ... I used CA State Meet as California's NXN
regional race and the SS-Finals for their "State" meet ratings above -
This is an advantage for California teams (in terms of high speed
ratings at regionals) because the CA State Meet is an in-season meet at a
familiar location
that most CA teams "focus-on" and go all-out to perform
..... Not all, but many teams coming to NXN from around the country have
higher speed ratings at their State meets compared to their NXN regional
meets ... some are not allowed to have their school coaches
out-of-season ... many have to travel out-of-state and run on unfamiliar
courses.
Having a season-best race the week before
NXN Nationals might seem like good handicapping factor ... But previous
results suggest that may not be the case ... Last year, the La
Salle Academy Rhode Island boys had the best NXN regional performance in
the nation, and they finished 18th at NXN Nationals ... There are other
examples ... Perhaps the extra effort takes something out of a few team
members in conjunction with the NXN demands so close to an all-out
effort.
I would lower expectations of Great
Oak if NXN 2015 was being contested on the muddy Portland Meadows
course ... But it is being run at Glendoveer Golf Course, and last
year's results suggest Glendoveer may be better for most California
teams ... Still, Glendoveer in December may have an effect since it is
different than most California courses.
Great Oak did not have a good
performance when they were beaten by Timpanogos UT at the Bob
Firman Invitational in Idaho (at the NXN Northwest course on Sept 26th)
... But recent performances by Great Oak suggest they will be
very hard to beat
... Great Oak goes 7 runners deep and that's another reason they
are the favorite.
Sandburg IL ...
Sandburg finished 15th at NXN last year, and that NXN experience
should be very helpful this year ... Sandburg has a deep team and a real shot at the podium
and the title
... They have performed at a very high level all season.
Hopkins MN ...
Hopkins won the Heartland regional by an impressive 64 points
with a spread of only 18.5 seconds from 1st to 5th (and speed ratings of
184-178) ... That is definitely a podium-quality team ... But in terms
of computer simulated races, Hopkins is only 5 runners deep with
respect to NXN ... One scoring runner having an off-day will hurt their
score and finish position ... But should all five scorers run well with
a couple having seasonal bests, Hopkins could win NXN ... I gave
Sandburg a slight edge based solely on depth.
Dana Hills CA
... Dana Hills had a very nice seasonal-best performance at the
CA State Meet ... Duplicating that performance will put them on the
podium, and should Great Oak falter, Dana Hills could win
NXN ... But my concerns noted above for Great Oak apply to
Dana Hills as well ... I won't be surprised if Great Oak and
Dan Hills finish one-two ... But I also won't be surprised if
they don't ... It really is a handicapping guess - Can they duplicate
their CA State Meet performance the following week??.
The Woodlands
TX
... The Woodlands had a big season-best performance at the Texas
State Meet (a definite NXN podium quality performance) ... They were not as good
at the NXN South regional ... That might set them up for good
performance at NXN ... My concern about The Woodlands is this -
The Woodlands finished last at NXN 2014 and last at NXN 2012 ...
This year's team is definitely stronger and has a real shot at the podium.
American Fork
UT ... American Fork finished 5th at NXN last
year, 7th in 2013
and 2nd in 2012 ... American Fork has one of the best cross
country programs in the nation ... They are consistently good and have a
real shot at the podium again ..... American Fork was selected as an
"At-Large" team after finishing 4th at the Southwest regional behind
Mountain Vista, Timpanogos, and Lone Peak (team scores
of 108-109-109-121) ... BUT look what happens in the team scoring above
based on speed ratings from the regional races ... American Fork
moves ahead of the other Southwest teams ... This is great example of
how team scores depend on who else is in the race.
Downingtown
West PA ... Downingtown West gained national
attention after winning the Manhattan Invitational Championship race ...
Their performance levels make them a contender for a podium spot ...
This is their first trip to NXN Nationals which might be a disadvantage
compared to other teams.
Liverpool NY
... Liverpool finished 4th at NXN last year and 20th in 2013 ... I suspected
the Glendoveer course would help both the Liverpool and
Fayetteville-Manlius boys last year (and it did) ... Liverpool
has been running very well and is in the running for a podium spot.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius
is the defending NXN Champion ... FM
finished 4th at NXN in 2013 ...
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to
NXN the last eight years! ... Their top runner entering the NXN
regional race did not run (Peter Ryan) ... I doubt I would have picked
them as an auto-qualifier knowing Ryan was missing, but the other FM
guys did a great job ... Projecting their team score becomes problematic
not knowing Ryan's status or ability to run effectively ... Peter Ryan
was FM's #1 runner at NXN last year ... The projected team score
above is a bit of a compromise.
Christian
Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ finished 11th NXN last
year, 2nd in 2013, 4th in 2012 and they won NXN in 2011 ... That says a lot ... Even
though this year's CBA team has yet to reach those performance
levels, they have shown contending ability.
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2015 by approximate best speed rating ...
36 of the 49 runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
Ben Petrella has the best speed
rating entering the race (199) which was run at the NXN regional at
Bowdoin Park (3rd best ever at Bowdoin, and only a few seconds behind Nick Ryan and Mikey Brannigan) ... Nick Ryan (FM) had the top speed rating entering
NXN 2012 (201), but Nick got tackled in a pile-up early in NXN 2012 and
never had a chance ... Ben Petrella will be hard-pressed to win
with many top competitors in this race.
Austin Tamagno is running NXN
instead of Footlocker because he taking an ACT test on the day of
Footlocker Nationals ... Jonathan Davis won both Footlocker
Midwest and NXN Midwest (and that marks him as a favorite) ... Ben
Veatch, Paul Roberts, Eduardo Herrera, David
Principe Jr, Casey Clinger, Jaret Carpenter, Alek
Parsons and others are really close.
Should be a good & interesting race.
|
.