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Pre-Season XC 2014
GIRLS Teams - National 2014
Bill Meylan (August 1, 2014)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2014 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2014 race results are what count.
|National GIRLS Teams 2014|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2014 NXN School State Score Region -------------------- ----- ----- ------ 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 260 New York 2 Great Oak CA 290 California 3 Fort Collins CO 310 Southwest 4 Saratoga NY 320 New York 5 Cherry Creek CO 335 Southwest 6 Glenbard West IL 340 Midwest 7 Pennsbury PA 360 Northeast 8 Unionville PA 361 Northeast 9 Wayzata MN 375 Heartland 10 Davis UT 380 Southwest 11 Saugus CA 390 California 12 Redondo Union CA 391 California 13 Trabuco Hills CA 392 California 14 Elmira District NY 393 New York 15 La Salle RI 395 Northeast 16 Capistrano Valley CA 400 California 17 Naperville North IL 410 Midwest 18 Davis Senior CA 411 California 19 Coeur D'Alene ID 412 Northwest 20 Desert Vista AZ 420 Southwest 21 Oakton VA 425 Southeast 22 Simi Valley CA 430 California 23 Summit OR 435 Northwest 24 Blacksburg VA 440 Southeast 25 Green Hope NC 445 Southeast 26 Carmel IN 450 Midwest 27 New Trier IL 455 Midwest 28 Birmingham Seaholm MI 460 Midwest 29 Mountain Brook AL 465 Southeast 30 Bozeman MT 470 Northwest The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled a lot: Coe-Brown NH Northeast Campolindo CA California Vista Murrieta CA California Bella Vista CA California Suffern NY New York Arroyo Grande CA California Buchanan CA California Burnt Hills NY New York American Fork UT Southwest Mason OH Midwest Lincoln-Sudbury MA Northeast Shenendehowa NY New York Holy Trinity FL Southeast West Lafayette IN Midwest Xavier College Prep AZ Southwest Willmar MN Heartland Red Bank Catholic NJ Northeast Tatnall DE Southeast Southlake Carroll TX South San Clemente CA California Serrano CA California Mira Costa CA California La Costa Canyon CA California Needham MA Northeast Naperville (Central) IL Midwest Columbus North IN Midwest Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest Monarch CO Southwest Ames IA Heartland Bismarck Century ND Heartland College Park TX South Randolph NJ Northeast Hinsdale IL Midwest Tahoma WA Northwest Lakeville South MN Heartland Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest Palatine IL Midwest Tolland CT Northeast Hamilton-Wenham MA Northeast South Eugene OR Northwest Saline MI Midwest Los Alamos NM Southwest Ridgewood NJ Northeast Bethesda-Chevy MD Southeast Flower Mound TX South The Woodlands TX South (added Aug 21 based on a transfer) *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2013 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).
Hopefully, the girl's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2014 XC season in a reasonable order ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2013 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2013 are shown in a table below... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2013, I did not identify 5 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 13 of the top 17 teams at NXN 2013 were ranked in my pre-season top 22 teams.
General Comments for the Coming Season:
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... FM finished 2nd at NXN last year and return 6 of their 7 runners, including top runner Annika Avery ... FM won NXN the previous 7 years ... Making Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite to win NXN in 2014 is pretty straight-forward .... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on the top five FM runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles.
Saratoga ... I have a bias for teams with proven ability in the past ... Saratoga has competed at NXN Nationals in 9 of the 10 years that NXN has operated (they should have been invited in 2006, but were not invited) ... At NXN, Saratoga has won once, been 2nd four times, been 3rd once, and in the top 5 eight times .... Last year was a "rebuilding" year due to graduations and transfers, but the young Saratoga squad still qualified for NXN and finished 15th ...They return 6 of their 7 NXN runners, including the top 3 from NXN ... In addition, Saratoga has other runners likely to be competitive for the scoring positions ... see my NY Pre-season Team Projections for additional information.
The only factor preventing me from projecting Saratoga one or two spots higher above is the lack of one or two runners performing at a consistent higher level (meaning a speed rating in the mid-130s or higher) ... Top teams typically need a top #1 runner.
Great Oak CA ... was the top California team last year and they finished 8th at NXN ... Great Oak loses 3 NXN runners to graduation, but they return top (elite) runner Destiny Collins and a solid core of runners from a deep team ... In addition, they may be getting some incoming freshmen capable of making the scoring positions ... But as noted in past years, Portland Meadows in December is not the "best" course for Great Oak in December.
Fort Collins CO ... is one of the "perennial" good teams at NXN ... Fort Collins has competed at NXN Nationals the last 7 years and never finished lower than 8th ... Last year, Fort Collins finished 6th at NXN and return 3 of their top 4 runners, including top (elite) runner Lauren Gregory.
Cherry Creek CO ... could provide some stiff competition for Fort Collins within Colorado ... Cherry Creek has a top elite runner (Jordyn Colter) and a talented returning team ... They have never competed at NXN Nationals.
Glenbard West IL ... was the Illinois State 3A champion last year ... Glenbard West would have been a favorite to qualify at the NXN Midwest Regional, but they chose not to compete (Naperville North, a team Glenbard West beat at States, won the 2nd qualifying spot at the NXN regional) ... Glenbard West returns 6 of their 7 runners from States.
Pennsbury PA and Unionville PA ... finished 7th and 11th, respectively, at NXN last year ... Pennsbury returns 6 of 7 and Unionville returns 5 of 7.
Wayzata MN ... won NXN last year with an excellent team performance ... Wayzata returns 3 of their top 4 scorers from NXN including top (elite) runner Anna French ... I had some uncertainty in projecting the level of their #4 and #5 scoring positions ... But an NXN champion that returns 3 of their top 4 scorers from NXN deserves the benefit-of-the-doubt and a top 10 team projection (and they could be better than that).
Davis UT ... finished a very good 3rd at NXN last year ... Davis loses 5 of their NXN runners to graduation, but Davis also lost 5 runners to graduation from NXN 2012 (where they finished 12th), and they "re-loaded" to finish 3rd in 2013 ... The Utah runners are good, so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt.
Elmira District NY ... Elmira has a top runner in Abbey Wheeler, who finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year, and several girls who appear to be improving ... Elmira finished 4th at the NXN-New York Regional (only 1 point behind 3rd-place East Aurora).
|Last Year's (2013) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals|
NXN Finish Order at Last Year's School State Score Region NXN 2013 Pre-Season Projection -------------------- ----- ----- ------ ---------------------------- --------------------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 200 New York 1 Wayzata MN - #7 pre-season 2 Assumption KY 220 Southeast 2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY - #1 pre-season 3 Carmel IN 235 Midwest 3 Davis UT - #30+ group pre-season 4 Great Oak CA 240 California 4 Carmel IN - #3 pre-season 5 Simi Valley CA 250 California 5 Monarch CO - #21 pre-season 6 Holy Names NY 255 New York 6 Fort Collins CO - #11 pre-season 7 Wayzata MN 270 Heartland 7 Unionville PA - #17 pre-season 8 Pennsbury PA 300 Northeast 8 Great Oak CA - #4 pre-season 9 Naperville North IL 330 Midwest 9 Simi Valley CA - #5 pre-season 10 Coeur D'Alene ID 335 Northwest 10 Bozeman MT - unranked 11 Fort Collins CO 355 Southwest 11 Pennsbury PA - #6 pre-season 12 Glenbard West IL 375 Midwest 12 Davis Senior CA - #30+ group pre-season 13 Saline MI 390 Midwest 13 Naperville North IL - #9 pre-season 14 Pleasant Valley IA 395 Heartland 14 New Braunfels TX - unranked 15 St. Francis (sac) CA 400 California 15 Saratoga Springs NY - #20 pre-season 16 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast 16 Assumption KY - #2 pre-season 17 Unionville PA 415 Northeast 17 Southlake Carroll TX - #22 pre-season 18 Burnt Hills NY 420 New York 18 Coe-Brown NH - #30+ group pre-season 19 Xavier College Prep AZ 425 Southwest 19 East Ridge NM - unranked 20 Saratoga NY 430 New York 20 The Woodlands TX - #30+ group pre-season 21 Monarch CO 435 Southwest 21 Blacksburg VA - unranked 22 Southlake Carroll TX 440 South 22 Bellarmine Prep WA - unranked 23 Saugus CA 450 California 24 Linn-Mar IA 455 Heartland 25 Arrowhead WI 460 Heartland 26 Providence NC 465 Southeast 27 Barrington RI 470 Northeast 28 Pine Creek CO 480 Southwest 29 Geneva IL 485 Midwest 30 American Fork UT 490 Southwest