Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
I limited the Combined Class list to 35 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2014
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 35 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 115 (03-A )
2 Saratoga 170 (02-A )
3 Elmira District 220 (04-A )
4 Burnt Hills 290 (02-B )
5 Shenendehowa 310 (02-A )
6 Suffern 340 (01-A )
7 Queensbury 380 (02-B )
8 Corning 385 (04-A )
9 Colonie 405 (02-A )
10 Webster Thomas 406 (05-A )
11 East Aurora 410 (06-C )
12 John Jay CR 415 (01-B )
13 Cornwall 425 (09-B )
14 Rush-Henrietta 430 (05-A )
15 Pearl River 435 (01-B )
16 Bronxville 440 (01-C )
17 Shaker 450 (02-A )
18 Monroe-Woodbury 480 (09-A )
19 Pittsford Mendon 495 (05-B )
20 North Shore 496 (08-B )
21 Sweet Home 497 (06-B )
22 Holy Names 510 (02-B )
23 Liverpool 545 (03-A )
24 Clarence 545 (06-A )
25 Garden City 560 (08-B )
26 Guilderland 560 (02-A )
27 Warwick Valley 580 (09-A )
28 Syosset 585 (08-A )
29 West Genesee 590 (03-A )
30 Ursuline 600 (01-A )
31 Northport 615 (11-A )
32 Penfield 650 (05-A )
33 Westhill-Ludden 660 (03-B )
34 Fox Lane 670 (01-A )
35 Hilton 680 (05-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using
2013
seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on
track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted
to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 35 teams to show some depth.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius was the seven-time defending National champion entering 2013 and they finished 2nd at NXN Nationals in 2013 ... They return 6 of the 7 runners who competed at NXN including top runner Annika Avery ... Fayetteville-Manlius will be the #1 ranked team in the nation entering the 2014 cross country season when considering potential performance at NXN.
Fayetteville-Manlius loses just one State Meet/NXN runner to graduation (Alana Pearl) ... That leaves a core of six returning runners (five are profiled in the Girls Individual Profiles) ... FM has other good runners as well ... In addition, Coach Bill Aris has an excellent record of cross country runner improvement to the elite level from one year to the next plus a successful record of development via "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) ... Therefore, Fayetteville-Manlius is likely to have good depth.
Saratoga took a big hit in graduation and transfer losses entering the 2013 XC season ... However, the young Saratoga team still finished 2nd at States and the NXN Regional qualifier, and then took 15th at NXN Nationals despite their youth (three 8th-graders in their five scorers) ... Saratoga could be surprisingly strong this season ,,, They will be nationally ranked when I post my National Team Rankings in August ... additional information on Saratoga is posted below in the Class A section.
Emira could be very strong as well ... They have a top runner in Abbey Wheeler who finished 17th at NXN Nationals (best of all NY girls) ... and several runners may show significant XC improvement based on track performances ... Elmira is definitely a team to watch.
Burnt Hills is typically deep in talent, and that appears to be the case again.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.
.