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 NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2011

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners ... See the "Importance of Speed Ratings in Handicapping NXN Nationals" article for additional information.

Three Team Scores are posted below:
 .. (1) The Overall Morning-Line Team Scores ... a combination of the overall ratings listed below PLUS some manual manipulation (based on historical trends or current information) to try and projection what "bettors" might actual consider a starting point for wagering ... Personally, I might actually bet somewhat differently.
 .. (2) Team Scores Using NXN Regional Speed Ratings
 .. (3) Team Scores Using State Meet Speed Rating (Note - for California, the actual CA State Meet ratings are applied to NXN Region (since it was the CA NXN qualifier) ... CA Section Final speed ratings used for "State" scores below)

See text files of data (worksheets of various team speed ratings by race):
 .... [ Boys Data File of Speed Ratings ]
 .... [ Girls Data File of Speed Ratings ]

Initial projections posted on November 29, 2011  .... Actual Results Posted Dec 3, 2011 ....

.... Actual Results Posted Dec 3, 2011 ....

[ Girls Projections ]


 Boys NXN Projected Team Scores 2011 ... CBA-NJ slight favorite in a close race

  Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Boys            ACTUAL RESULTS

  1   Christian Brothers   NJ      159  (Northeast )              Christian Brothers NJ      91
  2   American Fork        UT      167  (Southwest )              Southlake Carrol TX        95
  3   Southlake Carroll    TX      169  (South     )              Davis UT                  157
  4   Arcadia              CA      208  (California)              Arcadia CA                183
  5   Columbus North       IN      221  (Midwest   )              Palatine IL               255
  6   Davis                UT      222  (Southwest )              American Fork UT          257
  7   Fayetteville-Manlius NY      261  (New York  )              North Central WA          259
  8   North Central        WA      262  (Northwest )              Arrowhead WI              261
  9   Shaker               NY      265  (New York  )              Columbus North IN         268
  10  Trabuco Hills        CA      263  (California)              Stillwater MN             296
  11  Golden Valley        CA      264  (California)              Golden Valley CA          298
  12  Rancho Cucamonga     CA      266  (California)              Fayetteville-Manlius NY   304
  13  Belen Jesuit         FL      268  (Southeast )              York IL                   318
  14  Arrowhead            WI      312  (Heartland )              Trabuco Hills CA          322
  15  Stillwater           MN      317  (Heartland )              Gig Harbor WA             323
  16  Gig Harbor           WA      318  (Northwest )              Shaker NY                 344
  17  Palatine             IL      332  (Midwest   )              Brentwood TN              353
  18  York                 IL      334  (Midwest   )              Pembroke MA               378
  19  Pembroke             MA      342  (Northeast )              Rancho Cucamonga CA       380
  20  Brentwood            TN      377  (Southeast )              Belen Jesuit FL           385
  21  Westfield            NJ      408  (Northeast )              The Woodlands TX          430
  22  The Woodlands        TX      572  (South     )              Westfield NJ              512

         Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
        NXN Regional Speed Ratings                           State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   American Fork        UT      137    (Southwest )          1   Christian Brothers   NJ      144
 2   Christian Brothers   NJ      156    (Northeast )          2   Southlake Carroll    TX      155
 3   Trabuco Hills        CA      164    (California)          3   Arcadia              CA      197
 4   Arcadia              CA      199    (California)          4   American Fork        UT      215
 5   Southlake Carroll    TX      211    (South     )          5   Golden Valley        CA      221
 6   Davis                UT      234    (Southwest )          6   Columbus North       IN      251
 7   Columbus North       IN      245    (Midwest   )          7   North Central        WA      256
 8   Belen Jesuit         FL      251    (Southeast )          8   Gig Harbor           WA      272
 9   Golden Valley        CA      266    (California)          9   Belen Jesuit         FL      280
 10  Rancho Cucamonga     CA      277    (California)          10  Fayetteville-Manlius NY      281
 11  North Central        WA      285    (Northwest )          11  Davis                UT      285
 12  Shaker               NY      295    (New York  )          12  Palatine             IL      301
 13  Arrowhead            WI      308    (Heartland )          13  Rancho Cucamonga     CA      303
 14  Stillwater           MN      321    (Heartland )          14  Arrowhead            WI      306
 15  Fayetteville-Manlius NY      327    (New York  )          15  Stillwater           MN      318
 16  Gig Harbor           WA      331    (Northwest )          16  Trabuco Hills        CA      324
 17  York                 IL      334    (Midwest   )          17  Shaker               NY      334
 18  Palatine             IL      334    (Midwest   )          18  York                 IL      346
 19  Pembroke             MA      341    (Northeast )          19  Westfield            NJ      347
 20  Brentwood            TN      363    (Southeast )          20  Pembroke             MA      353
 21  Westfield            NJ      397    (Northeast )          21  Brentwood            TN      382
 22  The Woodlands        TX      569    (South     )          22  The Woodlands        TX      550

Pre-Race Comments ... All seven years of NXN (NTN) have demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses (typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The overall morning-line projected team scores above are based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating ... Computer simulation is not possible because I do not have sufficient data for many teams outside NY State.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating) ... SEE the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and State Meet ratings above.

General Team Comments:

At this point in the season, it appears three teams have separated themselves slightly from the remainder of the field ... Christian Brothers (NJ), American Fork (UT) and Southlake Carroll (TX) ... In terms of picking the winner based on numbers, it appears to be a toss-up ... I think any of the three teams have an equal probability of winning.

Last year, two teams "seemed" separated from the field entering NXN (Arcadia CA and American Forks UT) ... American Fork did not perform well at all, so that left Arcadia CA as the sole "best" team in 2010 ... At NXN 2010, Arcadia ran what I considered a "good" race (but definitely not a great race) ...When the "best" team runs a "good" race, that means teams below them must run better than good races just to get even ... And based on historical NXN performances, it is a rare occurrence for any team to run significantly better than a "good " race for them ... Arcadia won handily, and teams that did run "good" races (Fayetteville-Manlius and Columbus North) finished 2nd and 3rd ... and as expected, many teams performed sub-par compared to their Regional and State Meet races.

Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and predicting the exact order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note: I expect the top three scoring teams will have lower scores than the predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off" races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run well).

Remember ... the Portland Meadows course in early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up significantly in projected finish-positions ... WHO will that be in 2011?? (I hope it's the NY teams).

Individual Team Comments:

Christian Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ has done everything well all season long ... CBA finished 5th at NXN last year (only 14 points from 3rd) gathering experience and demonstrating an ability to run decently at Portland Meadows ... That experience, demonstrated ability at NXN and 2011 team improvement makes Christian Brothers the slight favorite to win.

American Fork UT ... American Fork was the co-favorite at NXN 2010 and finished only 8th ... American Fork finished 8th at NXN 2009 as well ... Five returning teams beat American Fork at NXN 2010 (CBA, FM, Columbus North, Arcadia and North Central WA) ... American Fork has proven to me they have the ability to win this race, but it would be hard to "bet the rent money on them" based on last year's results.

Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished 17th at NXN last year, but that's about where they figured to finish ... Southlake Carroll is definitely an improved team in 2011, so I give them a real shot at winning NXN 2011 ... The question for them (and others), "Can they handle Portland Meadows (the course) and all the side-events related to NXN??".

Arcadia CA ... Arcadia won NXN 2010 ... "Been-there-done-that" applies in my book ... The top Arcadia runner graduated last year, but Arcadia is still strong and they proved they could handle Portland Meadows last year ... so I think Arcadia may be the top California team at NXN 2011 despite losing at the CA State Meet.

Columbus North IN ... Columbus North finished 3rd at NXN last year ... Another "Been-there-done-that" applies ... A returning podium team has to get respect.

Davis UT ... Davis was very strong at the Southwest Regional (along with American Fork) ... Last year, Davis finished 11th at NXN ... Twelve of the 22 boys teams raced at NXN 2010 (six finished ahead of Davis), but Davis looks a bit stronger in 2011.

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd at NXN 2010 ... FM lost three of their top four to graduation, so this is a different team ... FM may have over-achieved a bit earlier in the season, but this team is still capable of popping a podium-performance if all five scorers perform well ... Some inconsistent performances of late raise concerns considering the back-half of the team, but Fayetteville-Manlius and Portland Meadows seem to gel very nicely at times.

Shaker NY ... Shaker was 13th at last year's NXN ... This year, Shaker appears to be on-the-improve entering NXN, so a better finish seems likely ... Actually, I should be rating Shaker ahead of FM, but I decided to give FM the benefit-of-the-doubt based on prior performance at Portland Meadows ... I'm hoping FM and Shaker go one-two on the podium.

Trabuco Hills CA ... Golden Valley CA... Rancho Cucamonga CA ... Predicting California finishing places at NXN is a guess ... So I decided to "clump" these three teams together at the 11th-position ... I figured I'd be close on at least one of them ... If they do better, it will not surprise me (like-wise if they do worse).

Belen Jesuit FL ... I think Belen Jesuit is better than the 13th-position where I projected them ... The scores from 7th-place to 13th-place are virtually even-up, so it's a guess ... I figured they have the longest trip plus colder weather (and some mud), but that's the only reason.

Individual Race Comments:

Futsum Zeinasellassie  (North Central Indianapolis IN) is the clear favorite entering NXN 2011 ... Zeinasellassie  won both the NXN Midwest Regional and Footlocker Midwest races handily (and appears to have "more gas in tank if needed") ... The top-ranked runner in the nation is not running NXN this year (Edward Cheserek (NJ) who was 2nd to Lukas Verzbicas at last year's NXN), but Zeinasellassie will be racing Cheserek at Footlocker Finals ... The only question I have concerning Zeinasellassie at NXN is his ability to handle the Portland Meadow course (but most top runners do it just fine).

Tony Smoragiewicz (Rapid City Cen SD) is the top returning NXN runner from last year (he was 9th) ... Who knows, maybe his triathlon training and strength will be beneficial in navigating Portland Meadows on his second attempt.

The list posted below shows the top-rated runners ... 12 of the top 13 runners are individual runners (runners not competing for a team) ... and with the exception of  Zeinasellassie, they are very closely rated and anything could happen with respect to finishing places (and that's what I expect will happen because I don't really know what will happen).

Nick Ryan (FM) can handle any type of course or conditions, so it will be interesting to see how he performs with this much close competition ... But his prime objective is to beat other team runners, so that may affect his race tactics (if it's even possible to distinguish individual runners from team runners during the race).


Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Futsum Zeinasellassie  12      North Cen Indianapol  IN       200.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Tony  Smoragiewicz     12      Rapid City Central    SD       195.0     Heartland    ** Individual
Nick Ryan              11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       194.5     New York
Jake  Leingang         11      Bismarck              ND       193.5     Heartland    ** Individual
Craig Nowak            12      Houston Cypress Woods TX       193.5     South        ** Individual
Michael Clevenger      12      Decatur (MacArthur)   IL       193.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Malachy Schrobilgen    12      Oak Park (Riv Forest) IL       193.0     Midwest      ** Individual
Daniel Vertiz          12      San Antonio Reagan    TX       193.0     South        ** Individual
Luis Martinez          11      Cleveland             NM       192.7     Southwest    ** Individual
Anthony Armstrong      12      Kamiakin              WA       192.7     Northwest    ** Individual
Izaic Yorks            12      Lakes                 WA       191.7     Northwest    ** Individual
Dylan Blankenbaker     12      Ramona                CA       191.7     California   ** Individual
Danny Martinez         12      St. John Bosco        CA       191.4     California   ** Individual
Sergio Gonzalez        12      Arcadia               CA       191.0     California
Kevyn Hoyos            12      Lewisville Hebron     TX       190.4     South        ** Individual
Bryan Guijarro         12      Knight                CA       190.4     California   ** Individual
Elliot Clemente        12      Belen Jesuit          FL       190.1     Southeast
Aubrey Myjer           12      Mountain View         CA       190.1     California   ** Individual
Clayton Young          11      American Fork         UT       190.0     Southwest
Adam Visokay           12      Albemarle             VA       190.0     Southeast    ** Individual
Jonah Diaz             12      Palos Verdes          CA       190.0     California   ** Individual
Daniel Galford         11      Monsignor Farrell     NY       190.0     New York     ** Individual

Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ...
    See Boys Data File of Team Data ....) 

Team Runners and Ratings by Team:
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Clayton Young          12      American Fork         UT       187.0     Southwest
MacKenzie Morrison     12      American Fork         UT       186.0     Southwest
Brayden McClelland     11      American Fork         UT       182.9     Southwest
Connor McMillan        10      American Fork         UT       178.1     Southwest
Tyson Green            11      American Fork         UT       175.9     Southwest
Zac Jacklin            9       American Fork         UT       170.7     Southwest
Dallas Griswold        12      American Fork         UT       163.0     Southwest

Sergio Gonzalez        12      Arcadia               CA       191.0     California
Ryan Vargas            12      Arcadia               CA       182.0     California
Estevan De La Rosa     10      Arcadia               CA       180.2     California
Mitchell Pratt         11      Arcadia               CA       177.8     California
Francis Lee            12      Arcadia               CA       173.0     California
Charlie Shen           12      Arcadia               CA       164.3     California
Josue Gonzalez         10      Arcadia               CA       133.9     California

Russell Sandvold       12      Arrowhead             WI       187.5     Heartland
Kyle Lewin             12      Arrowhead             WI       185.4     Heartland
Will Conley            11      Arrowhead             WI       175.9     Heartland
Ben Bierman            11      Arrowhead             WI       171.0     Heartland
Jake Dubnicka          11      Arrowhead             WI       167.4     Heartland
Ryan Glynn             12      Arrowhead             WI       152.3     Heartland
Ryan Adamski           12      Arrowhead             WI       151.5     Heartland

Elliot Clemente        12      Belen Jesuit          FL       190.1     Southeast
Avery Lopez            11      Belen Jesuit          FL       180.2     Southeast
Michael Magoulas       10      Belen Jesuit          FL       176.0     Southeast
Fabian Tomas           10      Belen Jesuit          FL       175.0     Southeast
Francisco Tejidor      12      Belen Jesuit          FL       174.3     Southeast
Diego Rojo             11      Belen Jesuit          FL       163.0     Southeast
Alexander Isaac        10      Belen Jesuit          FL       158.3     Southeast

Paul Stuart            12      Brentwood             TN       180.0     Southeast
Nathan Thomas          12      Brentwood             TN       178.0     Southeast
Alec Thomas            10      Brentwood             TN       177.5     Southeast
Taylor Caldwell        10      Brentwood             TN       171.0     Southeast
Aaron Thomas           10      Brentwood             TN       167.8     Southeast
Daniel Hamm            11      Brentwood             TN       152.0     Southeast
Coleman Churitch       10      Brentwood             TN       147.0     Southeast

George Kelly           12      Christian Brothers    NJ       185.5     Northeast
Mike McClemens         10      Christian Brothers    NJ       182.1     Northeast
Tim Gorman             12      Christian Brothers    NJ       182.0     Northeast
Jack Boyle             11      Christian Brothers    NJ       181.2     Northeast
Will Bragg             11      Christian Brothers    NJ       178.5     Northeast
Conrad Lippert         12      Christian Brothers    NJ       174.7     Northeast
Aaron Liberatore       11      Christian Brothers    NJ       174.3     Northeast

Michael Sublette       12      Columbus North        IN       185.3     Midwest
Christopher Kelsey     12      Columbus North        IN       183.7     Midwest
Andrew Diehn           12      Columbus North        IN       180.5     Midwest
Karson Tays            11      Columbus North        IN       173.4     Midwest
David Powell           12      Columbus North        IN       173.3     Midwest
Kaden Eaton            10      Columbus North        IN       163.4     Midwest
Andy Carr              10      Columbus North        IN       158.4     Midwest

Brad Nye               12      Davis                 UT       186.9     Southwest
Brayden Cromar         11      Davis                 UT       178.8     Southwest
Preston Johnson        11      Davis                 UT       177.4     Southwest
Logan Wood             12      Davis                 UT       175.5     Southwest
Skylar Williams        10      Davis                 UT       174.9     Southwest
Alex Hedquist          11      Davis                 UT       167.9     Southwest
Hayden Hansen          11      Davis                 UT       165.6     Southwest

Nick Ryan              11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       194.5     New York
Matt Deyo              12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       185.6     New York
Ben Thomas             12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       175.0     New York
Bryce Millar           9       Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       173.5     New York
Colin Fitzgibbons      11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       173.4     New York
Connor Farrell         11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       171.0     New York
Mike Malone            12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       150.0     New York

Wolfgang Beck          10      Gig Harbor            WA       185.3     Northwest
Tristan Peloquin       9       Gig Harbor            WA       178.5     Northwest
Logan Carroll          10      Gig Harbor            WA       178.4     Northwest
Casey Peloquin         12      Gig Harbor            WA       171.3     Northwest
Joseph Gagliano        12      Gig Harbor            WA       171.1     Northwest
Will Drinkwater        12      Gig Harbor            WA       171.0     Northwest
Luke Hoffman           12      Gig Harbor            WA       161.6     Northwest

Kristian Martinez      12      Golden Valley         CA       186.5     California
Juan David Garcia      12      Golden Valley         CA       184.5     California
Nolan Del Valle        11      Golden Valley         CA       180.4     California
Carlos Lopez           12      Golden Valley         CA       174.4     California
Brendan Tinoco         11      Golden Valley         CA       168.5     California
Aaron Nguyen           12      Golden Valley         CA       167.9     California
Gabe Levy              12      Golden Valley         CA       159.4     California

Kai Wilmot             10      North Central         WA       184.5     Northwest
Keith Williams         11      North Central         WA       183.6     Northwest
Tanner Anderson        9       North Central         WA       175.3     Northwest
Austen Frostad         11      North Central         WA       175.0     Northwest
Sam Holland            11      North Central         WA       173.4     Northwest
Nik Taylor             11      North Central         WA       172.3     Northwest
Isaac Kitzan           11      North Central         WA       168.2     Northwest

Anthony Gregorio       12      Palatine              IL       181.1     Midwest
Peter Tomkiewicz       12      Palatine              IL       180.5     Midwest
Marcus Garcia          12      Palatine              IL       177.0     Midwest
Tim Johnson            12      Palatine              IL       173.4     Midwest
Tim Meincke            12      Palatine              IL       169.0     Midwest
Christian Zambrano     11      Palatine              IL       165.8     Midwest
Graham Brown           9       Palatine              IL       160.9     Midwest

Wesley Gallagher       12      Pembroke              MA       186.1     Northeast
Christian Stafford     10      Pembroke              MA       181.4     Northeast
John Valeri            10      Pembroke              MA       176.0     Northeast
Joe Vercollone         12      Pembroke              MA       171.4     Northeast
Patrick Cunningham     11      Pembroke              MA       162.0     Northeast
Jesse Fine             12      Pembroke              MA       157.0     Northeast
William Stafford       10      Pembroke              MA       147.7     Northeast

Luis Gutierez          12      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       189.3     California
Austin Esposito        11      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       179.6     California
Jon Deliva             12      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       179.5     California
Kevin Matthews         11      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       176.4     California
Calvin Davis           12      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       174.2     California
Mat Holton             10      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       163.0     California
Anthony Ortega         10      Rancho Cucamonga      CA       160.8     California

Mike Libruk            12      Shaker                NY       188.0     New York
Christian Delago       12      Shaker                NY       183.2     New York
Jon Vallecorsa         12      Shaker                NY       177.1     New York
Ethan Hausamann        12      Shaker                NY       175.0     New York
Ryan Recchia           12      Shaker                NY       164.6     New York
Adam Schwenzfeier      11      Shaker                NY       163.9     New York
Max Morgan             11      Shaker                NY       156.0     New York

Joe Sansone            11      Southlake Carroll     TX       186.2     South
Trevor Gilley          11      Southlake Carroll     TX       181.7     South
Ben Golestan           12      Southlake Carroll     TX       180.3     South
Jordan Chavez          12      Southlake Carroll     TX       180.0     South
Nate Sullivan          11      Southlake Carroll     TX       178.5     South
Alexander Johansson    12      Southlake Carroll     TX       177.5     South
Connor Hendrickson     10      Southlake Carroll     TX       172.4     South

Wayde Hall             11      Stillwater            MN       182.3     Heartland
Tom Linner             12      Stillwater            MN       179.8     Heartland
Eric Colvin            11      Stillwater            MN       179.7     Heartland
Tayler Aarness         10      Stillwater            MN       172.7     Heartland
Sean Bjork             11      Stillwater            MN       168.8     Heartland
Ethan Anderson         12      Stillwater            MN       155.0     Heartland
Matt Chu               12      Stillwater            MN       154.0     Heartland

Brigham Hedges         11      The Woodlands         TX       177.0     South
Chris Vargas           12      The Woodlands         TX       166.6     South
Conner Moncrief        12      The Woodlands         TX       164.2     South
Craig Irvin            11      The Woodlands         TX       162.7     South
Jake Hendrick          12      The Woodlands         TX       162.6     South
Rick Hawley            12      The Woodlands         TX       158.4     South
Hiroshi Kirby          11      The Woodlands         TX       153.5     South

Jared Hazlett          12      Trabuco Hills         CA       186.0     California
Nick Plumb             12      Trabuco Hills         CA       182.0     California
Naoki Omatsu           11      Trabuco Hills         CA       178.5     California
Kevin Marshall         12      Trabuco Hills         CA       177.0     California
Max Moncur             11      Trabuco Hills         CA       171.0     California
Lucas Dorman           11      Trabuco Hills         CA       170.6     California
Brendan McCabe         11      Trabuco Hills         CA       164.9     California

Jack Leahy             12      Westfield             NJ       188.0     Northeast
John Kirna             12      Westfield             NJ       173.0     Northeast
Matthew Luppino        10      Westfield             NJ       172.0     Northeast
Kevin Ingram           12      Westfield             NJ       171.0     Northeast
David Carville         12      Westfield             NJ       168.5     Northeast
Kevin Smith            11      Westfield             NJ       167.5     Northeast
Evan Tarlow            12      Westfield             NJ       162.0     Northeast

Scott Milling          11      York                  IL       181.7     Midwest
Nathan Mroz            10      York                  IL       178.8     Midwest
Kyle Mattes            10      York                  IL       176.2     Midwest
Chris May              11      York                  IL       172.7     Midwest
Evan Fabry             11      York                  IL       171.2     Midwest
Jack Libert            11      York                  IL       170.5     Midwest
Carlos Vega            11      York                  IL       165.0     Midwest


GIRLS Projections:

 Girlss NXN Projected Team Scores 2011 - Fayetteville-Manlius favored again
   Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Girls            ACTUAL RESULTS

   1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     79   (New York  )             Fayetteville-Manlius NY    60
   2   Saratoga              NY    166   (New York  )             Saratoga NY                84
   3   Tatnall               DE    167   (Southeast )             Tatnall DE                182
   4   Saugus                CA    185   (California)             New Trier IL              182
   5   North Shore           NY    186   (New York  )             Carmel IN                 195
   6   Simi Valley           CA    210   (California)             Fort Collins CO           205
   7   Carmel                IN    237   (Midwest   )             Southlake Carroll TX      207
   8   New Trier             IL    236   (Midwest   )             Xavier College Prep AZ    224
   9   La Costa Canyon       CA    243   (California)             North Shore NY            225
   10  Fort Collins          CO    269   (Southwest )             Redondo Beach CA          262
   11  Summit                OR    285   (Northwest )             Simi VAlley CA            287
   12  Redondo Union         CA    286   (California)             Saugus CA                 325
   13  Southlake Carroll     TX    306   (South     )             La Costa Canyon CA        332
   14  Xavier College Prep   AZ    309   (Southwest )             Neenah WI                 367
   15  Assumption            KY    323   (Southeast )             Summit OR                 368
   16  Midlothian            VA    374   (Southeast )             Glacier Peak WA           376
   17  Humble Kingwood       TX    374   (South     )             Humble Kingwood TX        399
   18  Glacier Peak          WA    381   (Northwest )             Assumption KY             442
   19  Monticello            MN    396   (Heartland )             Midlothian VA             465
   20  Neenah                WI    451   (Heartland )             Monticello MN             480
   21  Champlain Valley      VT    480   (Northeast )             Champlain Valley VT       519
   22  Hamilton-Wenham       MA    480   (Northeast )             Hamilton-Wenham           543

      Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
     NXN Regional Speed Ratings                              State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      133    (New York  )        1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       49
 2   Tatnall               DE      151    (Southeast )        2   Tatnall               DE      156
 3   Saratoga              NY      175    (New York  )        3   Simi Valley           CA      158
 4   Saugus                CA      191    (California)        4   Saratoga              NY      172
 5   Redondo Union         CA      195    (California)        5   Saugus                CA      204
 6   North Shore           NY      200    (New York  )        6   North Shore           NY      227
 7   Simi Valley           CA      203    (California)        7   New Trier             IL      228
 8   La Costa Canyon       CA      208    (California)        8   Summit                OR      236
 9   Carmel                IN      267    (Midwest   )        9   La Costa Canyon       CA      250
 10  New Trier             IL      269    (Midwest   )        10  Southlake Carroll     TX      270
 11  Fort Collins          CO      296    (Southwest )        11  Carmel                IN      280
 12  Southlake Carroll     TX      305    (South     )        12  Redondo Union         CA      290
 13  Assumption            KY      309    (Southeast )        13  Xavier College Prep   AZ      294
 14  Midlothian            VA      320    (Southeast )        14  Humble Kingwood       TX      313
 15  Xavier College Prep   AZ      364    (Southwest )        15  Assumption            KY      373
 16  Summit                OR      368    (Northwest )        16  Glacier Peak          WA      379
 17  Glacier Peak          WA      369    (Northwest )        17  Monticello            MN      399
 18  Humble Kingwood       TX      370    (South     )        18  Champlain Valley      VT      435
 19  Monticello            MN      389    (Heartland )        19  Midlothian            VA      439
 20  Neenah                WI      453    (Heartland )        20  Neenah                WI      446
 21  Champlain Valley      VT      504    (Northeast )        21  Hamilton-Wenham       MA      458
 22  Hamilton-Wenham       MA      516    (Northeast )        22  Fort Collins          CO      492


Pre-Race Comments ... During the pre-season, it looked like Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga NY , Tatnall DE, North Shore NY and Saugus CA might be five of the top teams in the nation, and that seems to be the case.

General Team Comments:

As noted in prior NXN projections, historically, a majority of CA teams have produced relatively low ratings at Portland Meadows ... That caused me to scale-back some of the California scores in the "Morning-Line" Team Scores above (required some guessing) ... The CA teams performed at a high level at the CA State Meet and received two deserving at-large bids to NXN (Redondo Union came up big at CA States with an excellent performance).

With two at-large bids, California has four girl's teams competing at NXN ... that also means CA has twice as many teams with an opportunity to perform poorly at NXN (compared to most regions) ... and when poor performances result, it stands out so people can take note of it (like me) ... Doesn't seem to happen to the NY girl's at-large teams; just mentioning it.

Individual Team Comments:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the five-time defending National Champion and the odds-on favorite to win again ... FM did not have their best team performance at NXN Regional, but FM also had a sub-par performance at the NXN Regional in 2007 and proceeded to win NXN Nationals by 88 points ... FM lost two scorers from last year's NXN victory to injury (Christie Rutledge and Heather Martin) and are still odds-on favorite.

There has been some note concerning the use of 7th and 8th-graders competing at NXN for NY (and other regions) and some States (e.g. California) not allowing junior high runners to compete at the varsity level ... Those are the rules NXN applies to their meet (if the States allow it, NXN allows it) ... FM rarely has 8th-graders compete varsity (Jenna Farrell is the one exception this season) ... In addition, the junior high cross country "feeder program" at some schools (like FM) is considered an advantage over other States (e.g. California) ... But the truth is, the best "feeder program" for Fayetteville-Manlius has been their soccer team ... On this year's team alone, Jillian Fanning, Annika Avery and Hannah Smith came to the FM XC team from soccer (as did Alex Hatz a few years ago).

Saratoga NY (Kinetic RC) ... Like 2009 and 2010, Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet and finished 2nd at NXN Regionals ... Saratoga is talented and deep through all seven runners (if they all perform well) ... Saratoga has proven performance & experience at NXN ... And that performance & experience at NXN makes Saratoga a very small favorite to get second over Tatnall (who's numbers are slightly better than Saratoga).

Tatnall DE ... Tatnall DE is an experienced NXN team and ran very well at the NXN Southeast Regional ... top runner Haley Pierce will contend for the top individual spot (and start their team score with a very low number) ... By the rating numbers alone, Tatnall is second ... This year's team is stronger than last year's team that finished 5th at NXN.

Saugus CA ... The Saugus performance at CA States was excellent once again ... Saugus improved nicely at the end of the CA season and peaked at States ... Despite graduating many good runners last year, I liked Saugus again this year in pre-season because I believe in the "been-there-done-that" scenario of potential performance ... And Saugus has proven they can navigate Portland Meadows very nicely.

North Shore NY ... North Shore finished 9th at NXN last year and are better in 2011 ... Top runners Samantha Nadel and Brianna Nerud give North Shore and excellent one-two finish, and 3rd and 4th runners (Jessica Donahue and Elizabeth Caldwell) are highly rated as well ... A decent performance at the 5th-scorer gives North Shore a legitimate opportunity to be a podium team.

Simi Valley CA ... Simi Valley has had an excellent season ... Simi Valley still finished 4th in the CA State "power merge" despite a disqualification to one of their top runners at States (Erika Barr) ... I ignore things like DQs, and still rate the team as if the DQ did not happen ... Simi Valley is a definite contender for a podium spot ... They are led by top runner Sarah Baxter (who may win the NXN race ... as noted many times, starting an NXN team score with a low number is very important) ... My biggest concern with Simi Valley (in terms of betting real money on them in this race) is this is their first experience at NXN Nationals, and sometimes that results in "off" team performances.

The two Midwest teams, New Trier IL and Carmel IN, are really good teams ... They seem evenly matched for this race ... I give Carmel the slight advantage because they finished a very good 7th at NXN last year.

La Costa Canyon CA and Redondo Union CA ... By the numbers alone, both teams could do better than the overall projection above ... La Costa Canyon struggled at NXN last year which is my concern (but that experience may help them a lot) ... La Costa Canyon is definitely capable and within reach of making the podium ... Redondo Union has not competed at NXN before, and that's their disadvantage compared to teams above them.

Fort Collins CO ... My numbers always under-rate Fort Collins with respect to NXN performance ... I think Fort Collins is one of those teams capable of elevating their performance level at specific races and courses (and Portland Meadows is one of those courses).

Individual Race Comments:

The individual race is an excellent first-class contest of many of the best female runners in the nation (several top national runners are missing, such as Molly Seidel (WI), Julia Bos (MI), Erin Finn (MI), Angela Piccirillo (PA) and Abbey Leonardi (ME), but the NXN field is very strong and probably stronger than the Footlocker field this year).

Jillian Fanning (FM) has been outstanding all season and enters this match-up as the unbeaten and slight favorite ... Fanning has experience over the course (she was 6th at last year's NXN) and is running at a career-best level ... However, the competition is really close and serious challenges are expected from a number of runners.

Sarah Baxter (Simi Valley) is the top California runner again this season (she was the top runner last year as a freshman, but did not compete post-season) ... Baxter is clearly one of the best runners at the national-level ... How she adapts to the Portland Meadow course is the question, but don't be surprised if she wins handily.

Julie Macedo (Charter DE) and Haley Pierce (Tatnall) have been rivals this season ... they actually ran each other into the ground in one race, but both have the ability to win ... Pierce finished 5th at last year's NXN, so she is capable of running well at Portland Meadows.

Amy-Eloise Neale (Glacier Peak) is the top-finishing returning runner to NXN (she finished 3rd at NXN last year) ... Northwest rival Katie Knight (North Central WA) has had some good races with Neale this season and is another serious challenger for the win (Knight was 8th last year at NXN).

Sophomore Mary Cain (Bronxville NY) deserves serious consideration ... she popped the 3rd best-ever time at Bowdoin Park (just behind Aisling Cuffe and Nicole Blood) ... As a freshman in track last spring, Cain ran a remarkable 1500 meter race at States (4:17.84) and followed with a very fast 800 meter relay split at Nationals (2:03.74) .... Samantha Nadel (North Shore NY) is also capable of a big race.


Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
  Name                Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Jillian Fanning        11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      156.0     New York
Sarah Baxter           10      Simi Valley            CA      154.5     California
Julie Macedo           12      Charter                DE      153.0     Southeast   **Individual
Amy-Eloise Neale       11      Glacier Peak           WA      150.1     Northwest
Haley Pierce           12      Tatnall                DE      150.0     Southeast
Mary Cain              10      Bronxville             NY      150.0     New York    **Individual
Katie Knight           11      North Central          WA      150.0     Northwest   **Individual
Hagen Reedy            11      Buchanan               CA      149.2     California  **Individual
Samantha Nadel         12      North Shore            NY      149.1     New York
Amanda Fox             12      Naperville Central     IL      148.0     Midwest     **Individual
Samantha Nightingale   12      Blue Springs South     MO      147.7     Midwest     **Individual
Laura Hollander        12      Marina                 CA      147.3     California  **Individual
Madeleine Ankhelyi     11      Vista Del Lag          CA      146.7     California  **Individual
Brianna Nerud          12      North Shore            NY      145.2     New York
Mariel Mendoza         12      North, J.W.            CA      145.1     California  **Individual
Erin Hooker            11      Fort Collins           CO      145.0     Southwest
Maria Hauger           11      Shakopee               MN      145.0     Heartland   **Individual
Karis Frankian         12      Saugus                 CA      144.5     California
Rebecca Mehra          12      Palos Verdes           CA      144.3     California  **Individual
Elle Purrier           11      Richford               VT      143.8     Northeast   **Individual

Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets...
    See Girls Data File of Team Data ....)

Team Runners and Ratings by Team:  

  Name                Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Katherine Receveur     10      Assumption             KY      129.0     Southeast
Bailey Davis           10      Assumption             KY      128.5     Southeast
Emily Bean             10      Assumption             KY      124.4     Southeast
Caroline McCaslin      12      Assumption             KY      117.0     Southeast
Kenzley Defler         10      Assumption             KY      112.5     Southeast
Kate Crawford          10      Assumption             KY      108.0     Southeast
Amanda Vokoun          12      Assumption             KY      106.0     Southeast

Sarah Bennett          12      Carmel                 IN      132.7     Midwest
Renee Wellman          12      Carmel                 IN      129.1     Midwest
Kelcy Welch            10      Carmel                 IN      128.7     Midwest
Haley Harris           9       Carmel                 IN      122.0     Midwest
Allison Jacobsen       12      Carmel                 IN      120.3     Midwest
Gina Genco             10      Carmel                 IN      120.0     Midwest
Kelsey Harris          9       Carmel                 IN      115.6     Midwest

Taylor Spillane        11      Champlain Valley       VT      132.4     Northeast
Aleksey Jordick        11      Champlain Valley       VT      113.5     Northeast
Adrienne Devita        12      Champlain Valley       VT      110.0     Northeast
Autumn Eastman         10      Champlain Valley       VT      109.5     Northeast
Julienne Devita        11      Champlain Valley       VT      103.5     Northeast
Isabelle Unger         12      Champlain Valley       VT      98.5      Northeast
Sophie Hess            12      Champlain Valley       VT      95.0      Northeast

Jillian Fanning        11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      156.0     New York
Katie Sischo           12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      139.3     New York
Hannah Smith           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      137.0     New York
Annika Avery           9       Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      135.0     New York
Alana Pearl            10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      130.0     New York
Katie Brislin          11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      129.4     New York
Jenna Farrell          8       Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      129.3     New York

Erin Hooker            11      Fort Collins           CO      145.0     Southwest
Devynn Miller          9       Fort Collins           CO      127.0     Southwest
Kira Miklos            10      Fort Collins           CO      120.3     Southwest
Michelle Kramer        10      Fort Collins           CO      115.0     Southwest
Kari Vanzyl            10      Fort Collins           CO      110.0     Southwest
Abbey Ervin            10      Fort Collins           CO      108.0     Southwest
Audrey Oweimrin        10      Fort Collins           CO      104.0     Southwest

Amy-Eloise Neale       11      Glacier Peak           WA      150.1     Northwest
Katie Bianchini        11      Glacier Peak           WA      133.3     Northwest
Megan Davis            10      Glacier Peak           WA      108.0     Northwest
Marlee Rothschild      11      Glacier Peak           WA      107.0     Northwest
Marren Haneberg        12      Glacier Peak           WA      105.0     Northwest
Samantha Northrop      10      Glacier Peak           WA      98.5      Northwest
Katherine Dittmann     9       Glacier Peak           WA      97.0      Northwest

Kerry Phelan           12      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      117.7     Northeast
Emily Weigand          9       Hamilton-Wenham        MA      117.0     Northeast
Emily Horgan           10      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      114.0     Northeast
Margaret Blatchford    11      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      113.0     Northeast
Claire Pacione         11      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      103.5     Northeast
Emily Senning          12      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      99.0      Northeast
Sarah Duffy            11      Hamilton-Wenham        MA      95.0      Northeast

Sandie Raines          11      Humble Kingwood        TX      126.4     South
Ashley Mills           12      Humble Kingwood        TX      126.1     South
Catie Daigre           12      Humble Kingwood        TX      120.6     South
Laura Craig            12      Humble Kingwood        TX      119.5     South
Grace Howley           11      Humble Kingwood        TX      111.5     South
Kerstin Sheehan        12      Humble Kingwood        TX      106.3     South
Sarah Bradley          12      Humble Kingwood        TX      84.0      South

Kelly Lawson           11      La Costa Canyon        CA      137.0     California
Emma Abrahamson        10      La Costa Canyon        CA      136.0     California
Shanoah Souza          12      La Costa Canyon        CA      127.4     California
Rebekah Bosler         10      La Costa Canyon        CA      123.7     California
Ellie Abrahamson       11      La Costa Canyon        CA      113.0     California
Jordan Rich            9       La Costa Canyon        CA      100.0     California
Julie Steigerwald      10      La Costa Canyon        CA      78.0      California

Kara Dickerson         11      Midlothian             VA      130.0     Southeast
Skylar Evans           12      Midlothian             VA      123.0     Southeast
Kari Johnston          10      Midlothian             VA      122.0     Southeast
Marie Johnston         11      Midlothian             VA      119.0     Southeast
Meghan Mulroy          12      Midlothian             VA      107.0     Southeast
Taylor Saygeh          10      Midlothian             VA      85.0      Southeast
Katie Brendli          12      Midlothian             VA      67.0      Southeast

Amber Stoick           12      Monticello             MN      126.5     Heartland
Amber Seidenkranz      10      Monticello             MN      126.4     Heartland
Erica Seidenkranz      12      Monticello             MN      125.1     Heartland
Mariah Betzler         10      Monticello             MN      113.1     Heartland
Krista Steele          9       Monticello             MN      101.0     Heartland
Corinne Steele         12      Monticello             MN      100.0     Heartland
Brooke Rasmussen       10      Monticello             MN      94.0      Heartland

Alison Parker          11      Neenah                 WI      126.0     Heartland
Jessica Parker         10      Neenah                 WI      118.0     Heartland
Jennifer Parker        10      Neenah                 WI      117.0     Heartland
Claire Knaus           11      Neenah                 WI      113.0     Heartland
Lydia Fahrenkrug       12      Neenah                 WI      107.0     Heartland
Jessie Laabs           10      Neenah                 WI      92.6      Heartland
Sydnee Braun           11      Neenah                 WI      89.0      Heartland

Courtney Ackerman      11      New Trier              IL      136.0     Midwest
Mimi Smith             9       New Trier              IL      134.0     Midwest
Jessica Ackerman       11      New Trier              IL      131.5     Midwest
Julie Jackson          12      New Trier              IL      120.1     Midwest
Molly Krueger          10      New Trier              IL      116.0     Midwest
Kathleen Keene         11      New Trier              IL      106.3     Midwest
Anna Berglund          12      New Trier              IL      98.0      Midwest

Samantha Nadel         12      North Shore            NY      149.1     New York
Brianna Nerud          12      North Shore            NY      145.2     New York
Jessica Donohue        11      North Shore            NY      135.0     New York
Elizabeth Caldwell     11      North Shore            NY      128.6     New York
Alexandra Osman        10      North Shore            NY      103.0     New York
Monica Morra           8       North Shore            NY      97.0      New York
Olivia Statile         10      North Shore            NY      75.0      New York

Rachel Bush            12      Redondo Union          CA      133.0     California
Kayla Ferron           11      Redondo Union          CA      132.3     California
Lyndsey Mull           12      Redondo Union          CA      131.0     California
Cara Ulizio            11      Redondo Union          CA      130.0     California
Alexis Thibodeau       11      Redondo Union          CA      101.3     California
Anique Villegas        12      Redondo Union          CA      90.5      California
Nicole Pederson        9       Redondo Union          CA      90.4      California

Taylor Driscoll        11      Saratoga               NY      137.0     New York
Estela Smith           9       Saratoga               NY      135.0     New York
Keelin Hollowood       11      Saratoga               NY      134.0     New York
Olivia Morrow          8       Saratoga               NY      126.8     New York
Tara Peck              12      Saratoga               NY      120.7     New York
Katie Treichel         12      Saratoga               NY      120.5     New York
Maggi Szpak            12      Saratoga               NY      115.0     New York

Karis Frankian         12      Saugus                 CA      144.5     California
Jenay Jauregui         12      Saugus                 CA      129.6     California
Jordan McCall          12      Saugus                 CA      127.0     California
Abigail Frankian       10      Saugus                 CA      125.0     California
Katie Huntington       11      Saugus                 CA      123.4     California
Heidi Hoslet           11      Saugus                 CA      122.5     California
Emily McCarty          12      Saugus                 CA      104.0     California

Sarah Baxter           10      Simi Valley            CA      154.5     California
Karla Vernola          12      Simi Valley            CA      133.0     California
Erika Barr             12      Simi Valley            CA      130.5     California
Sarah Riggs            9       Simi Valley            CA      125.0     California
Rachel Vinas           11      Simi Valley            CA      123.4     California
Desirae Jones          9       Simi Valley            CA      112.0     California
Madelyn Vorgitch       10      Simi Valley            CA      97.0      California

Courtney Kriegshauser  11      Southlake Carroll      TX      129.1     South
Shelby Chapin          11      Southlake Carroll      TX      127.0     South
Rachel Harper          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      121.7     South
Felice Johnson         12      Southlake Carroll      TX      121.1     South
Julia Sunderland       12      Southlake Carroll      TX      120.4     South
Allison Naval          12      Southlake Carroll      TX      120.3     South
Sarah Roe              12      Southlake Carroll      TX      119.9     South

Megan Fristoe          12      Summit                 OR      134.4     Northwest
Ashley Maton           12      Summit                 OR      129.0     Northwest
Piper McDonald         9       Summit                 OR      126.5     Northwest
Sara Fristoe           12      Summit                 OR      115.0     Northwest
Kira Kelly             12      Summit                 OR      114.3     Northwest
Tess Nelson            11      Summit                 OR      106.0     Northwest
Keelin Moehl           12      Summit                 OR      94.1      Northwest

Haley Pierce           12      Tatnall                DE      150.0     Southeast
Reagan Anderson        11      Tatnall                DE      137.0     Southeast
Rebecca Salter         11      Tatnall                DE      129.5     Southeast
Kieran Hanrahan        9       Tatnall                DE      126.0     Southeast
Julie Williams         11      Tatnall                DE      123.4     Southeast
Kate Hastings          9       Tatnall                DE      115.2     Southeast
Caroline Silverman     8       Tatnall                DE      92.0      Southeast

Sarah Fakler           11      Xavier College Prep    AZ      138.0     Southwest
Laura Orlie            12      Xavier College Prep    AZ      126.0     Southwest ** is entered
Breanna Perrone        12      Xavier College Prep    AZ      123.5     Southwest
Lauren Kinzle          9       Xavier College Prep    AZ      118.2     Southwest
Samantha Mattice       10      Xavier College Prep    AZ      116.0     Southwest
Jessica Molloy         9       Xavier College Prep    AZ      114.0     Southwest
Shelby Brown           10      Xavier College Prep    AZ      111.5     Southwest
McKenna Gaffney        11      Xavier College Prep    AZ      110.0     Southwest (not in entries)