Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 North Rockland (01) 69 Fayetteville Manlius 48
2 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 70 North Rockland 63
3 Shenendehowa (02) 95 Port Washington 103
4 Warwick Valley (09) 101 Warwick Valley 122
5 Sachem East (11) 135 Rush-Henrietta 124
6 Rush-Henrietta (05) 140 Shenendohowa 141
7 Port Washington (08) 145 Ithaca 156
8 Ithaca (04) 170 Sachem East 184
9 Clarence (06) 195 Clarence 232
Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius won with an outstanding team effort. During the week, Andrew Roche was sick with flu (101 temperature), but raced very well (177 speed rating) ... Joe Hartnett had his best race ever for FM (176 speed rating ... prior best was 164 at Manhattan), and that was a real big factor in FM's team score ... Port Washington raced very well to finish 3rd ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) out-dueled Quinn Rasemann (Ward Melville for the win) ... Section 3 runners Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) and Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) finished an excellent 3rd and 4th.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is an interesting race from a computer simulation point-of-view
(a simulation of 100,000 possible race outcomes) ... North Rockland
and Fayetteville-Manlius are basically splitting the number of
wins (with North Rockland slightly ahead) ... Two factors are
significant in determining the outcome ... one factor will be determined
by the teams themselves, but the other is out of their control:
(1) Placement of the #5 runner ... this is
always important, but here it is really important.
(2) Placement of runners Not on
either team ... There are a lot of quality team runners in this Class AA
race, and how they displace the North Rockland
and Fayetteville-Manlius runners is determining nearly half the
outcomes.
Fayetteville-Manlius
will not have Alex Hatz (hopefully Alex will be able to
compete at the NXN Regional) ... Hatz was excluded from the prediction
above ... Mark McGurrin was not 100% at sectionals (recovering
from sickness) and is expected to be better at States ... Fayetteville-Manlius
has not raced "all-out" very many times this season, and to borrow
from horse-race handicapping, the sectional race may have been a good "tightener"
for FM (this intangible handicapping factor might give an
advantage to FM and could be considered if pari-mutuel wagering was
allowed
).
North Rockland has been racing very well ... North Rockland has been improving all season and is now position to win the Class AA title ... One key improvement is improved performance at the #5 position (which may determine this race).
Shenendehowa and Warwick Valley are fairly evenly matched for the 3rd and 4th spots.
Individual Race ... This could be a very interesting and close race ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) has been consistently good in recent races and is the slight favorite for the win ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) is undefeated this season and appears to be peaking at the right time ... Brendan Farrell (FM) has been consistently good ... Colin Savage (Liverpool) almost did not race at sectionals due to the flu (and probably shouldn't have), but did race to help Liverpool finish 2nd and be a likely Federation "at-large" selection (one of Liverpool's top five runners (Nick Hull) could not run at sectionals due to the flu) ... Dan Harris (Shenendehowa) is capable of a big race and winning as is Alex Saavedra (Sachem East) ... Section 9 runners Tim Luthin (Warwick) and Martin Hehir (Washingtonville) are in the mix as well ... I have a feeling that Marco Bertolotti (Port Washington) could be the surprise in this race - he is undefeated this season, has excellent speed (as evidenced by his mile track performances), and will be competing on a relatively flat course that might be beneficial.
)
is in that discussion as well) ... FM and Saratoga
will probably race each other here, at NXN Regional and NXN
Nationals ... This is an interesting test
for Saratoga (and Saratoga passed their test against
Shen very nicely indeed).