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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2009 - Predictions & Preview

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 10, 2009 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  ...

ACTUAL Scores  added on Nov 15, 2009 (Comments on Nov 15) ...

[Girls Predictions]

 

 Boys Class AA - North Rockland & FM in a "pick-em"

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   North Rockland       (01)      69        Fayetteville Manlius   48
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      70        North Rockland         63
  3   Shenendehowa         (02)      95        Port Washington       103
  4   Warwick Valley       (09)     101        Warwick Valley        122
  5   Sachem East          (11)     135        Rush-Henrietta        124
  6   Rush-Henrietta       (05)     140        Shenendohowa          141
  7   Port Washington      (08)     145        Ithaca                156
  8   Ithaca               (04)     170        Sachem East           184
  9   Clarence             (06)     195        Clarence              232


		 

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius won with an outstanding team effort.  During the week, Andrew Roche was sick with flu (101 temperature), but raced very well (177 speed rating) ... Joe Hartnett had his best race ever for FM (176 speed rating ... prior best was 164 at Manhattan), and that was a real big factor in FM's team score ... Port Washington raced very well to finish 3rd ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) out-dueled Quinn Rasemann (Ward Melville for the win) ... Section 3 runners Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) and Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) finished an excellent 3rd and 4th.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is an interesting race from a computer simulation point-of-view (a simulation of 100,000 possible race outcomes) ... North Rockland and Fayetteville-Manlius are basically splitting the number of wins (with North Rockland slightly ahead) ... Two factors are significant in determining the outcome ... one factor will be determined by the teams themselves, but the other is out of their control:
(1) Placement of the #5 runner ... this is always important, but here it is really important.
(2) Placement of runners Not on either team ... There are a lot of quality team runners in this Class AA race, and how they displace the North Rockland and Fayetteville-Manlius runners is determining nearly half the outcomes.

Fayetteville-Manlius will not have Alex Hatz (hopefully Alex will be able to compete at the NXN Regional) ... Hatz was excluded from the prediction above ... Mark McGurrin was not 100% at sectionals (recovering from sickness) and is expected to be better at States ... Fayetteville-Manlius has not raced "all-out" very many times this season, and to borrow from horse-race handicapping, the sectional race may have been a good "tightener" for FM (this intangible handicapping factor might give an advantage to FM and could be considered if pari-mutuel wagering was allowed).

North Rockland has been racing very well ... North Rockland has been improving all season and is now position to win the Class AA title ... One key improvement is improved performance at the #5 position (which may determine this race).

Shenendehowa and Warwick Valley are fairly evenly matched for the 3rd and 4th spots.

Individual Race ... This could be a very interesting and close race ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) has been consistently good in recent races and is the slight favorite for the win ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) is undefeated this season and appears to be peaking at the right time ... Brendan Farrell (FM) has been consistently good ... Colin Savage (Liverpool) almost did not race at sectionals due to the flu (and probably shouldn't have), but did race to help Liverpool finish 2nd and be a likely Federation "at-large" selection (one of Liverpool's top five runners (Nick Hull) could not run at sectionals due to the flu) ... Dan Harris (Shenendehowa) is capable of a big race and winning as is Alex Saavedra (Sachem East) ... Section 9 runners Tim Luthin (Warwick) and Martin Hehir (Washingtonville) are in the mix as well ... I have a feeling that Marco Bertolotti (Port Washington) could be the surprise in this race - he is undefeated this season, has excellent speed (as evidenced by his mile track performances), and will be competing on a relatively flat course that might be beneficial.

 

 

 Boys Class A  -  Burnt Hills favored again
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      48        Burnt Hills            38
  2   McQuaid              (05)      59        McQuaid                57
  3   Calhoun              (08)      69        Calhoun                78
  4   Brewster             (01)      92        Brewster               88
  5   Vestal               (04)     120        Jamesville-DeWitt     132
  6   Jamesville-Dewitt    (03)     145        Vestal                144
  7   Williamsville N      (06)     175        Harborfields          172
  8   Harborfields         (11)     195        Williamsville N       208
  9   Cornwall             (09)     220        Cornwall              234

		

Post-Race Comments ... Burnt Hills ran very well to win handily as expected ... the race ran reasonably close to form.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is the favorite in Class A, but McQuaid and Calhoun are not far behind ... Burnt Hills gets the advantage as their top runners are projected to finish one-two (Otis Ubriaco and Scott Maughan) and their #5 runner is higher rated than their challengers.

McQuaid has been good all season and appears to be peaking ... McQuaid had an excellent team performance at sectionals and that performance puts them very close to Burnt Hills ... If McQuaid duplicates that performance, this race could be up-for-grabs.

Calhoun is also very good, but they do not appear to be quite as deep as the top two teams (a big performance at the #5 position could make it interesting).

Individual Race ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) and Scott Maughan (Burnt Hills) are the top ranked Class A runners ... Mike Tripp and Robert Hurlbut (McQuaid) raced very well at sectionals and could challenge for the top spot ... Adam Vanvleck (Pittsford Mendon) races well at these championship races (he finished 3rd at last year's Class A State race).

 

 

 Boys Class B  -  Honeoye Falls the favorite
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      69        Honeoye Falls-Lima     42
  2   Bayport-Blue Pt      (11)      79        Bayport-BluePt         85
  3   Manhasset            (08)     111        Byram Hills           104
  4   Byram Hills          (01)     112        Manhasset             112
  5   Marcellus            (03)     118        Beekmantown           122
  6   Windsor              (04)     140        Marcellus             134
  7   Broadalbin-Perth     (02)     145        Broadalbin Perth      164
  8   Beekmantown          (07)     160        Windsor               166
  9   East Aurora          (06)     170        New Paltz             234
 10   New Paltz            (09)     220        East Aurora           235
 11   Canton               (10)     245        Canton                268

		

Post-Race Comments ... Alex Deir and Steve Mangan (Honeoye Falls-Lima) ran one-two as expected, and the HFL team raced even better than expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima is the defending Class B champion and favored to win ... Honeoye Falls-Lima has an advantage with an excellent one-two combo (Alex Deir and Steve Mangan).

Bayport Blue Point raced very well at sectionals with excellent depth one through six ... If Bayport Blue Point can repeat that performance, they have a real chance to win.

Manhasset, Byram Hills and Marcellus are closely matched for the 3rd position.

Individual Race ... Alex Deir and Steve Mangan (Honeoye Falls-Lima) are the top-ranked Class B runners ... Dan Denis (Bayport-Blue-Pt) and Jesse Garn (Marcellus) are not far behind.

 

 

 Boys Class C  -  Holland Patent the favorite
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent       (03)      59        Holland Patent         40
  2   Pawling              (01)      85        Pawling                91
  3   Fonda Fultonville    (02)     113        Newark Valley         101
  4   James O'Neill        (09)     116        Greece Odyssey        107
  5   Gowanda              (06)     120        James I O'Neill       127
  6   Newark Valley        (04)     120        Gowanda               135
  7   Greece Odyssey       (05)     135        Oyster Bay            155
  8   Babylon              (11)     200        Babylon               189
  9   Oyster Bay           (08)     200        Fonda Fultonville     214
 10   Potsdam              (10)     235        Potsdam               250
 11   Plattsburgh          (07)     295        Plattsburgh           308
		

Post-Race Comments ... Holland Patent won easily as expected ... Brandon Freyer (Pawling) out-dueled Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) for the individual title in a real good race.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Holland Patent is the solid favorite to win the Class C race ... Holland Patent has good depth and a good one-two combo (Dylan and Cody Racha) ... Holland Patent lost to Newark Valley by one point last year.

Pawling is the second choice ... The next four to five teams are not separated by much (the exact order of finish is fairly random amongst those teams).

Individual Race ... Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) is the defending champion and favorite to win the individual title ... Brandon Freyer (Pawling) is capable of mounting a serious challenge for the win ... The Holland Patent twins (Dylan and Cody Racha) have been improving throughout the season.

 

 

 Boys Class D  -  Barker favored in a close race
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Barker               (06)      70        Barker                 66
  2   Beaver River         (03)      78        Beaver River           76
  3   Seton Catholic       (07)      79        Seton Catholic         85
  4   Port Jefferson       (11)      89        Geneseo               107
  5   Geneseo              (05)     114        Port Jefferson        123
  6   Berne-Knox-Westerlo  (02)     115        Berne Knox Westerlo   132
  7   Spencer VanEtten     (04)     148        Spencer Van Etten     135
  8   Tupper Lake          (10)     212        SS Seward             207
  9   SS Seward            (09)     224        Tupper Lake           221
 10   Haldane              (01)     250        Haldane               258
		

Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the race ran reasonably close to form ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) won handily despite taking a fall about 200 meters from the finish.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending Class D champion (Barker finished second last year) ... This year, Seton Catholic and Port Jefferson are legitimate contenders.

Barker raced very well at sectionals with a team spread of less than a minute and the top three within eight seconds of each other ... a duplication at States will be hard to beat ... Beaver River probably needs to place their top two runners in front of the initial Barker pack ... Seton Catholic has decent depth and the projected team winner (starting a team score with a "one" is always an advantage ... and running on a home-town course should help) ... Port Jefferson has a chance with a good team performance ... The #5 position in this race is very important.

Individual Race ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) is the defending Class D champion and co-favorite for the win ... Caleb Edmonds (Cooperstown) was home-schooled until his senior year and he is currently the top-ranked Class D runner ... I was informed that Caleb Edmonds almost did not compete at sectionals due to a severe case of flu during the week (he did not look comfortable at all during or after the race, but he needed to qualify at sectionals to make States ... hopefully he will be recovered because it could setup a really good race with Mike Champagne) ... Steve Petramale (Lake George), Chris Burnett (Bainbridge-Guilford), Austin Lane (Greenwich) and James Boeding (Webutuck's one-man team) are expected to be competitive for the next spots.

 

 

 

 Girls Class AA  -  FM looking strong with Saratoga second again
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      25        Fayetteville Manlius   15
  2   Saratoga             (02)      40        Saratoga Springs       59
  3   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)      90        Monroe Woodbury        98
  4   Arlington            (01)     125        Arlington             122
  5   Northport            (11)     125        Northport             126
  6   Hilton               (05)     189        Ithaca                186
  7   Ithaca               (04)     189        Syosset               192
  8   Syosset              (08)     215        Hilton                199
  9   Clarence             (06)     240        Clarence              256
		

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius - the most impressive team performance in a single race that I have ever seen ... Fayetteville-Manlius wanted to make a statement and they did ... Overall, this race ran very close to form.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending State and National Champions and the top-ranked team in the US once again ... FM currently has six of the top eight positions on the Girls NY State Class AA leaderboard, and that suggests their team score might be lower than the 25 points posted above ... Last year, FM had the potential to score 15, but scored 22 ... It is very difficult to have five exceptional team performances in the same race against a very talented group of teams (and individuals from other teams are likely to have some exceptional performances which will raise the FM score ... this comes across in computer simulations ... it's a matter of which simulation result I chose to use) ... FM has extraordinary depth ... This could be an interesting test for FM, and I'm interested to see the results.

Saratoga ran very well at sectionals to beat a very good Shenendehowa team ... For some reason, I think the SUNY Plattsburgh course will be good for Saratoga ... Saratoga is one of the three best teams in the US (whether they are better than the Saugus CA girls is to-be-determined ... and Shenendehowa (who can't race at States) is in that discussion as well) ... FM and Saratoga will probably race each other here, at NXN Regional and NXN Nationals ... This is an interesting test for Saratoga (and Saratoga passed their test against Shen very nicely indeed).

Monroe-Woodbury appears 3rd-best in this race ... Arlington and Northport are too-close-to-call in a "pick-em" for 4th.

Individual Race ... Courtney Chapman (FM) won States convincingly last year at Sunken Meadow ... This year the individual race looks very close with a group of FM girls vying for the win (Courtney Chapman, Jillian Fanning, Molly Malone, Hannah Luber, Katie Sischo and Mackenzie Carter) against Keelin Hollowood (Saratoga) and Lizzie Predmore (Shenenedehowa) ... and you might watch-out for Meghan Patrignelli (Monroe-Woodbury).

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  Queensbury a solid favorite
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Queensbury           (02)      29        Queensbury             34
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      78        Pittsford Mendon       64
  3   Tappan Zee           (01)      80        Tappan Zee             97
  4   Cornwall             (09)      85        Cornwall               99
  5   Grand Island         (06)     154        Wantagh               145
  6   Wantagh              (08)     155        Vestal                159
  7   Vestal               (04)     175        Miller Place          186
  8   Miller Place         (11)     195        Grand Island          195
  9   Jamesville-Dewitt    (03)     200        Jamesville-DeWitt     201
		

Post-Race Comments ... Another race that ran reasonably close to form ... Queensbury won impressively ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) not only ran extremely fast, but she did it easily.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury is a very solid favorite in the Class A race ... Queensbury needed an excellent performance to beat Burnt Hills at the Section 2 championships (Burnt Hills would be a solid favorite if they were at States instead of Queensbury).

Tappan Zee, Cornwall and Pittsford Mendon are close in the projected scores (and are effectively even-up) ... the performance of the #3, #4 and #5 runners will likely make the difference (as it does in most races).

Individual Race ...  This could be really good race between the two overall top-ranked runners in NY State ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) is undefeated and has been posting ratings worthy of a top-five finisher at Footlocker Finals (she finished 12th at Footlockers last year) ... Emily Lipari (11th at Footlocker Finals last year) is rounding into form for the championship portion of the XC season (just like last year) and is also undefeated this season ... Emily Lipari won last year's Class A race beating Aisling Cuffe by 5 seconds (Nov 12th update - Emily Lipari will not be racing due to an ankle injury) ... Brittany & Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) are running very well and have been improving (Danielle finished 3rd at States last year) ... Shaylyn Tuite (Pittsford Mendon) is also undefeated this season and won her division of the McQuaid Invite very impressively.

 

 

 Girls Class B  -  East Aurora & Honeoye Falls-Lima in a good race
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      42        East Aurora            48
  2   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      47        Honeoye Falls-Lima     60
  3   North Shore          (08)      70        North Shore            74
  4   Pearl River          (01)     100        Pearl River            85
  5   Scotia-Glenville     (02)     155        Scotia-Glenville      163
  6   Owego                (04)     170        Onteora               170
  7   Marcellus            (03)     185        Owego                 178
  8   Onteora              (09)     200        Marcellus             190
  9   Mount Sinai          (11)     220        Mount Sinai           216
 10   Peru                 (07)     295        Peru                  321
 11   Ogdensburg           (10)     310        Ogdensburg            339
		

Post-Race Comments ... The team race unfolded pretty much as expected ... Meghan Young (Nanuet) out-dueled Christine Driscoll (Geneva) for the individual title.

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the four-time defending Class B champion ... Coach Walt McLaughlin continues to have an excellent XC program at East Aurora (and 8th-grade daughter Marta McLaughlin has certainly helped the team this season with winning performances at sectionals and ECIC Championships) ... the East Aurora girls have risen to the occasion very nicely in recent races at State Meets, and I expect the same this year.

Honeoye Falls-Lima was the perennial Class B champion prior to East Aurora ... This year Honeoye Falls-Lima adds senior transfer Amanda Moreland to the team and that, combined with noticeable improvement team-wise, makes Honeoye Falls-Lima is serious contender to re-claim the Class B title ... This race could very well be decided by the performances of the #4 and #5 runners ... Honeoye Falls-Lima has a real shot at winning.

North Shore has been plagued by injuries and sickness all season which is very unfortunate for a team with a potential to challenge at a national level ... Dan Doherty's Pearl River is always in the mix.

Individual Race ...  Sophomores Samantha Nadel (North Shore) and Lauren Mullins (Johnson City) are the top ranked Class B runners ... Samantha Nadel is the favorite, but Lauren Mullins is capable of a winning performance ... Freshman Meghan Young (Nanuet) has popped some really good performances this season and is definitely in the mix ... Consistently good Christine Driscoll (Geneva) will be close and Amanda Moreland (Honeoye Falls) is always good in these championship races.

 

 

 Girls Class C  -  Bronxville favored to repeat
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)      55        Bronxville             41
  2   Tully                (03)      70        Tully                  65
  3   Newark Valley        (04)      75        Newark Valley          96
  4   Fredonia             (06)      85        Fredonia               98
  5   Rhinebeck            (09)     130        Rhinebeck             123
  6   Voorheesville        (02)     170        Voorheesville         179
  7   Saranac Lake         (07)     190        Saranac Lake          215
  8   Gouverneur           (10)     207        Friends Academy       216
  9   Friends Academy      (08)     224        Gouverneur            228
 10   Williamson           (06)     246        Williamson            234
 11   Center Moriches      (11)     290        Center Moriches       265
		

Post-Race Comments ... Bronxville ran very well and handily as expected ... the Tully girls had their best race of the season and finished 2nd ... The team race ran very close to form ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) won the individual title very comfortably.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the defending Class C champion and is favored once again ... However, the score above includes Henrietta Miers, a top Bronxville runner who did not run at sectionals (I do not know why) ... If she does not run, the race might get close with four teams vying for the win.

Newark Valley beat Tully and Fredonia head-to-head at the McQuaid Invitational ... Newark Valley has shown the ability to run well in big races (they ran very well at States last year when they finished a very decent 3rd to Bronxville and Rhinebeck).

Tully finishes 2nd in the computer simulations due to good team depth ... Of the top nine Tully runners, three have had the H1N1 flu (one of the top five missed sectionals because of it, but is likely to race at States) ... Tully has the potential to post a very good score and could challenge for win, but that will require five excellent performances.

Fredonia has been improving very nicely ... if that continues, they could be in the hunt for the top spot.

Individual Race ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) is the favorite to win (Allison has been racing very well all season) ... Kira Garry (Friends Academy), Caitlin Jelinek (Pawling) and Aimee Beudette (Canton) could have a good race for second (I did not know the Canton girls were Class C until sectionals) ... Katie Brislin (CBA-Syracuse) could also be in the hunt (she did not run well at sectionals due to sickness; missed three days of school the week of sectionals) ... Meredith Rizzo (Bronxville) has been improving nicely ... Henrietta Miers (Bronxville) has shown the ability to finish in a top position.

 

 

 Girls Class D  -  Greenwich a solid favorite again
 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      18        Greenwich              24
  2   Maple Grove          (06)      80        Maple Grove            80
  3   Geneseo              (05)     110        Beaver River           93
  4   Beaver River         (03)     115        Geneseo               102
  5   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     122        Norwood-Norfolk       116
  6   Seton Catholic       (07)     122        Thomas A. Edison      123
  7   Thomas A. Edison     (04)     140        Seton Plattsburgh     154
  8   S.S. Seward          (09)     175        Eldred                216
  9   Stony Brook          (11)     250        Stony Brook           235
 10   Haldane              (01)     278        Haldane               280

        *** Eldred raced for Section 9 (not S.S. Seward)
		

Post-Race Comments ... Greenwich won very easily as expected ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) won handily with Tori Campanian (South Lewis) second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Very little to analyze here in terms of the winning team ... Greenwich is an overwhelming favorite to win ... Greenwich easily won the Class D title last year and is expected to do the same this year.

Maple Grove has race well throughout the season and is the pick to finish second ... 3rd through 6th-place looks fairly close with Geneseo getting the edge due to better depth and strength at the #4 and #5 positions.

Individual Race ...  Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) is the favorite with improving Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) expected to mount a serious challenge for the win ... Several Greenwich runners (Brittney Lane, Cady Kuzmich and Betsy Edinger) are in the hunt for the top spots.