Some Thoughts on Specific Races at the NY State Indoor Championships 2005
... coming on ... March 6, 2005 (Carrier Dome, Syracuse University)

... [State Meet Info & Order of Events (with approximate start times based on last year)]

Girls 3000 Meters ... I hope New Yorkers realize how lucky we are to have two great high school runners like Nicole Blood (Saratoga) and Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley) competing head-to-head ... This is top competition at its very best, and at approximately 10:30am on Sunday March 6 at the Syracuse Carrier Dome, track fans may be witnesses to one of the best races of the indoor season (I would come to the Dome to watch this race alone) ... It could be special.

To quickly recap their rivalry this year ... In cross country, Aislinn Ryan beat Nicole Blood in the out-of-State races (Great American and Footlocker Nationals) and Blood beat Ryan in all the in-state races (Manhattan, NY State Class Meet, NY Federation, and Footlocker Regional) ... Ryan has dominated the indoor track season with wins at the Millrose Games and Boston Indoor Games (one mile races) ... Aislinn Ryan has won their last three match-ups ... I thought Ryan's win at Footlocker Nationals was predictable because she entered that race with several advantages over Blood ... Ryan's stellar performances throughout the indoor season, which include breaking the 3000 Meter NY Junior Class Record three times, put her in a dominating position entering the State Indoor Champions Meet.

At least, that's what I thought until I watched Nicole Blood win the Section 2 State Qualifier at Albany State ... She ran a smart, evenly-paced race (almost identical 1500m splits) and looked incredibly good doing it (excellent winning time of 9:43.93 ... Ryan's top time is 9:36.6 on a track that's probably faster than Albany) ... I wanted to see performance evidence that Nicole Blood was currently capable of being competitive with the remarkably fit Ryan, and I saw it.

Who will win?? ... I honestly don't know ... Aislinn Ryan would be the morning-line favorite, but that doesn't mean much ... I think Nicole Blood wants revenge for recent races and to prevent Ryan from winning her first NY State championship ... How this race unfolds could determine the winner ... Who will take the lead? ... Who will make the first move? ... The lead could change hands several times because the runner getting the advantage at the proper time is likely to win ... If the race becomes tactical, who has the advantage? ... If the race is fast, who has the advantage? ... These questions will be answered Sunday ... Don't miss it.

Girls 1500 Meters ... This could be a very competitive race ... The fastest seed-time is Amanda Hudson's (Bronxville) 4:35.20 (a PR by nearly 10 seconds) run at the Section One qualifier ... The morning-line favorite would likely be Brittany Sheffey (Bellport, seed-time 4:37.09) who has the top 1000m time in the State (2:49.48) plus two sub-five minute miles (4:55.39, 4:58.01), and just ran 2:09.94 for 800m at the Eastern State Championships ... Rolanda Bell (Sacred Heart, 4:37.43) and Kara McKenna (Suffern, 4:39.54) also have fast seed-times ... Kara McKenna has some very good performances at other distances (1000m-2:55.1, 1 Mile-4:58.1, 3000-10:06.6).

Two "wild cards" in the mix are Emily Malinowski (Bethlehem, 4:41.24) and Shannon Crane (Lancaster. 4:43.53) ... Shannon Crane finished 4th at last year's outdoor State Championships (4:32.26, and beaten by Mary Liz McCurdy and Aislinn Ryan) ... Emily Malinowski looked super-sharp at the Section 2 qualifier; she's very good at running intelligent races (stalking other runners) and has developed improved quick-speed which makes her very competitive in this race ... This would be a very good betting race if the Carrier Dome had pari-mutuel wagering.

Boys 1000 Meters ... Here's my main thought ... Lionel Williams is the 10th seed ... this season, Lionel Williams set a NY State sophomore record in the 800 meters (1:55.37) and a US National record in the 600 meters (1:19.68) ... Lionel Williams should seeded into the fast heat ... Historically, the 10th seed is not in the fast heat - This year should be an exception ... There are 28 total runners ... I sincerely hope the "seeding committee" uses some wisdom (as opposed to leaving Lopez Lomong in the slow 1600m heat at last year's outdoor meet) and put 10 runners into the "seeded" heat ... In last year's indoor 1000m, the seeding committee put 7 runners in the seeded heat (with 9 and 10 runners in the other heats) using a "natural break" (time gap) rational ... Personally, I think both the 600 meters and 1000 meters need semis and finals to be fair; in part, because indoor racing facilities around the State are not equal in terms of quality or speed (but I'm in the minority).

This race could be a real good match-up between top seed Luis German (Southampton, 2:29.97), super-sharp Ben White (Liverpool, 2:30.53) and Lionel Williams ... plus, there are some other talented runners in the field ...

Boys 1600 Meters ... The big question is Dan McManamon's (Shenedehowa) current level of fitness ... Dan ran an excellent 4:14.28 mile at Dartmouth on Jan 8, but was hampered by an IT-band/knee injury which side-lined him from track competition until the middle of February ... his recent track races have been run intelligently in preparation for upcoming competitions ... Dan looked very good at the Section 2 qualifier, and can obviously run faster than his 4:20 time in that race ... The top seed is Kevin Tschirhart (Northport) who ran a 4:15.29 mile at the Boston Indoor Games ... Kevin also has the fastest 1000 meter time in the State (2:28.64), a 9:18.15 two-miler, and a 1:54.27 800-meter time ... Kevin Tschirhart is the morning-line favorite, but Dan McManamon may be capable of an upset win.

The 1600 meter field has some other good runners capable of surprising ... Carlos Jamieson (North Rockland, 4:18.12 mile), Geary Gubbins (Southampton, 4:18.74 mile, 9:26 two-mile), Brian Schmidt (Kellenberg, 4:19.52 mile), Luis German (Southampton, doubling back from the 1000m), and Owen Kimple (FM, 4:19.65, but capable of running faster).